SOME GEOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF THE NEW SOVIET FIVE-YEAR PLAN

The following preliminary overview of some spatial aspects of the 10th Five-Year Plan, originally prepared for oral delivery at the 1976 St. Louis meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies, is published here in response to widespread requests for reprints. It comments briefly on what are perceived to be some new locational priorities in the context of the so-called East-West issue, the proposed shift to greater use of coal compared with oil, a pro-European bias in steel location, the impact of joint development projects with Comecon countries and with the West, and an apparent movement to seaboard locations in conjunction with increased foreign-trade interaction between the Soviet Union and the world economy.     

改革开放以来中国城市化与经济社会发展关系研究

中国自改革开放以来,工业化实际上在走城乡二元发展的道路,城市化与工业化相伴生。消费需求的三次升级,一方面刺激了经济增长,使城市化的生活方式在城市和广大农村地区快速扩展,另一方面,也吸引了外资和技术的引进。浙江的民营企业加专业市场是中国自下而上城镇化的典范,江苏的集体经济加开发区建设是政府主导城市化发展的一种模式。本文重点探讨中国改革开放25年来城市化的主要动力机制变化及其对经济社会发展的影响,并进行浙江、江苏城市化实证分析。     

National and Regional Population Trends in Georgia, 1989-2002: Results from the 2002 Census

An American geographer and specialist on urbanization and population change in the countries of the former USSR summarizes major results of the first post-Soviet census of Georgia, only recently released. After describing sources of census data and methodological issues warranting attention (e.g., exclusion of most of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and movements of internally displaced persons), he reviews significant national- and regional-level developments in population size, urban and rural distribution, and ethnic affiliation in the country. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 3 tables, 34 references.     

America and the Canadian Presence: As the United States Faces Global Challenges,How Does Canada Fit In? 1

On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the Center for Canadian–American Studies at Western Washington University, the author considers the trends that will shape US–Canadian relations over the next 40 years. Specifically the author considers the deepening of continental economic integration; the consequences of reaching the limits of current governance of integration and the coming need to negotiate new arrangements and institutions to manage the shared economy; the importance of an anticipated drive for greater public sector productivity in both countries at the federal and state/provincial levels; and the implications of a generational transition in the management of the relationship from the Baby Boomers to a younger generation with an attendant need to maintain the best traditions of amicable bilateral relations while evolving and adapting the management of the relationship in keeping with changing times and new challenges. For each of these changes, it is to be hoped that education in Canadian studies will be available for future leaders in the public and private sectors.     

The unexpected rise of cohabitation in the Philippines: evidence of socioeconomic disadvantage or a second demographic transition?

Cohabitation has increased rapidly in the Philippines, quadrupling in prevalence from 6 per cent in 1993 to 24 per cent in 2013 among young adult women. This increase is dramatic and exceptional given the slow change in other family behaviours, such as low divorce rates and continued high fertility, and the persistent influence of the Catholic Church. While cohabitation is often framed as evidence of ideational change and liberalisation, its continued uptake over time may be associated with socio-economic conditions. Using the 2013 national demographic and health surveys, we apply a discrete-time competing risks model to examine the relationship between socio-economic status and cohabitation, using education as proxy for resources and opportunities available to women. Our findings demonstrate that lower levels of education are significantly associated with a higher risk of cohabitation, which suggests rising cohabitation in the Philippines is more linked to socio-economic disadvantage than the devaluing of marriage among educated elites.     

论小康社会的旅游转型

随着我国社会形态向小康社会的发展,旅游业也出现了相应的转型。本文论述了在转型中旅游目的的变化、旅游目的地的变化、旅游景区开发的变化和旅游服务的变化。     

城市化对区域发展的经济绩效研究

在对全国和陕西省城市化基本情况分析的基础上,以全国31个城市和陕西省10个城市为研究对象,通过多元回归模型分析了城市化对不同区域经济发展以及对不同类型城市经济发展的影响。认为只有合理的城市化才能促进区域经济的发展,并试图提出适应不同经济发展水平的城市化道路及其发展对策。文章的主要结论包括:不同城市化因子对区域经济的贡献存在较大的区域差异,全国难以选择统一的城市化模式;不同城市化因子对不同等级规模城市的经济绩效存在明显的差异,反映了大中小城市在发展过程中应各有侧重。     

Employment growth and regional development: industrial change and contextual differences between Denmark and Sweden

This paper explores the potential drivers behind uneven regional development in the context of employment growth in Denmark and Sweden. In particular, we are interested in the roles of urbanization, industrial change and the rise of the new economy as manifested in the growth of the two economies in 2002–2007. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to analyse the impact of a number of key industrial sectors on regional employment growth in the two countries. The empirical analysis is based on longitudinal matched employer–employee data retrieved from official registers in each economy from 2002 to 2007, a period of strong national growth following the crisis of early 2000. Our findings indicate that the two economies follow a similar pattern in addressing total employment growth; but looking at changes in employment levels across the national borders of these two relatively similar open economies, we find that, although in general these economies react relatively similarly to changes, embarking on a narrower analysis of the individual sectors reveals marked national differences. This indicates that context matters in the analysis of regional economic dynamics in terms of structure, system and policy.     

The second demographic transition, new household forms and the urban population of France during the 1990s

European household structures and their geography have been transformed in recent decades as a response to the interplay of demographic events and changing lifestyles. The formation of new households generally outstrips the rate of population increase, as more numerous and smaller households result from changing patterns of marriage, child-bearing, divorce and longevity. This paper tests some of the underlying hypotheses of the 'second demographic transition' using data from the most recent (1999) French population census. It provides an analysis of changing national household structures over the last quarter of the twentieth century and highlights the importance of smaller households, with particular emphasis on the rise of living alone. Trends identified in earlier work have intensified during the 1990s. In discussing the geography of new household forms, the paper focuses particularly on the evolution of major central cities and argues for more explicit links between their distinctive population and household structures and wider socio-economic change.     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

Population geography and HIV/AIDS: The challenge of a ‘wholly exceptional disease’

This paper justifies and elaborates Huw Jones’ identification of HIV/AIDS as a ‘wholly exceptional disease’. It identifies the global pattern of the disease and how geographers have dealt with it, and considers its exceptional character in respect of its medical, demographic and behavioural dimensions. Implications of these dimensions are integrated into discussions of geographers’ use of two major conceptualisations in population analysis: the demographic transition model and disease diffusion models. It is argued that HIV/AIDS is wholly exceptional in that its essentially behavioural character — both in terms of spread and control — must strengthen the case for more explicit behavioural perspectives in population geography.     

四川平武白马生态脆弱地区经济模式变迁评析

历史上白马地区的经济发展经历了从原始的农牧业到消耗型的伐木经济,再到今天的民俗生态旅游和生态农牧经济的变迁。半个多世纪白马人的经济发展告诉我们,凡是以高度消耗自然资源为代价的经济活动都难以持续。白马地区的经济变迁还显示,生态脆弱地区理想的经济结构应当是适应环境特点的多元复合结构,而不能是一条腿走路的单一结构;同时,生态脆弱地区发展生态经济还应当根据当地的自然地理条件,充分发挥当地人民的创造性,走内源发展之路,避免盲目移植外来的经济模式。     

经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展的关联分析

结合陕北公路交通与经济发展的实际,应用1998-2007年度的数据,运用主成分析、相关性、回归模型、弹性分析等方法,对经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展效率进行了综合分析评价。结果发现,陕北公路交通与经济发展之间相关度较高,两者之间的最优回归方程可表示为Logistic曲线函数,交通发展指数对经济发展指数的平均弹性系数大体在0.42-0.58之间波动。在综合经济发展过程中,原来较为落后地区的公路交通基础设施与经济发展会逐步趋向协调;公路交通基础设施的改善是经济发展不可缺少的条件之一,但其边际效益会逐渐减小。最后,建议在当前阶段,为实现陕北经济的顺利转型和健康发展,应建设形成多种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系。     

Modeling social interaction: Marital miscegenation in colonial Spanish America

Abstract

In this article, the author constructs new life tables for the white population of the United States in each decade between 1790 and 1900. Drawing from several recent studies, he suggests best estimates of life expectancy at age 20 for each decade. These estimates are fitted to new standards derived from the 1900–1902 rural and 1900–1902 overall death registration area life tables using a two-parameter logit model with fixed slope. The resulting decennial life tables more accurately represent sex- and age-specific mortality rates while capturing known mortality trends.