Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India

There is an increasing policy focus on India’s demographic potential and associated growth benefits. This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the net growth benefits derived from an increased share of working-age population in India. The analysis adopts decomposition and econometric methods, using data at the state and national level in India, to robustly test the nature and magnitude of the demographic dividend in India. We find that the Indian economy is drawing significant benefits from the ongoing process of demographic transition, with dividend effects estimated to be over one percentage point per annum during 1980–2010. However, to derive high growth from the demographic potential would require tackling some of the growth constraints. The paper discusses ways in which these constraints can be addressed to fully tap the potential of demographic dividend.     

青海省河湟谷地城镇化建设刍议

河湟谷地的城镇发展具有明显的优势,但也存在一些亟待解决的问题。现阶段应重点推进县城的发展,降低省会城市的首位度,使河湟谷地的城镇结构合理化,同时做好城镇长远规划、拓宽筹资渠道、调整产业结构、加强生态保护等方面的工作。     

SOME GEOGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF THE NEW SOVIET FIVE-YEAR PLAN

The following preliminary overview of some spatial aspects of the 10th Five-Year Plan, originally prepared for oral delivery at the 1976 St. Louis meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies, is published here in response to widespread requests for reprints. It comments briefly on what are perceived to be some new locational priorities in the context of the so-called East-West issue, the proposed shift to greater use of coal compared with oil, a pro-European bias in steel location, the impact of joint development projects with Comecon countries and with the West, and an apparent movement to seaboard locations in conjunction with increased foreign-trade interaction between the Soviet Union and the world economy.     

Long-term decline of regions and the rise of populism: The case of Germany

What characterizes regions where right-wing populist parties are relatively successful? A prominent hypothesis proposed in the emerging “geography of discontent” literature claims that places that are “left behind” constitute a breeding ground for the rise of populism. We re-examine this hypothesis by analyzing the rise of populism in Germany. Our results suggest that high vote shares of populist parties are associated with the long-term decline of a region's relative welfare, which goes beyond a lifespan of people inhabiting such “left behind” places. Moreover, we are able to show that a place-based collective memory about past prosperity plays a crucial role in shaping present resentment. Finally, we find the education level of the regional population to be an important channel through which the collective memory about the past translates into populism support today.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Georgia, 1989-2002: Results from the 2002 Census

An American geographer and specialist on urbanization and population change in the countries of the former USSR summarizes major results of the first post-Soviet census of Georgia, only recently released. After describing sources of census data and methodological issues warranting attention (e.g., exclusion of most of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and movements of internally displaced persons), he reviews significant national- and regional-level developments in population size, urban and rural distribution, and ethnic affiliation in the country. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 3 tables, 34 references.     

改革开放以来中国城市化与经济社会发展关系研究

中国自改革开放以来,工业化实际上在走城乡二元发展的道路,城市化与工业化相伴生。消费需求的三次升级,一方面刺激了经济增长,使城市化的生活方式在城市和广大农村地区快速扩展,另一方面,也吸引了外资和技术的引进。浙江的民营企业加专业市场是中国自下而上城镇化的典范,江苏的集体经济加开发区建设是政府主导城市化发展的一种模式。本文重点探讨中国改革开放25年来城市化的主要动力机制变化及其对经济社会发展的影响,并进行浙江、江苏城市化实证分析。     

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AS A FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR CITIES IN EAST CENTRAL EUROPE

Contemporary cities in East Central Europe (ECE) represent a hybrid type of urban development which is still generally considered to be a special case and is only exceptionally referred to in the recently intensified debate over the European city. Our paper argues that such exclusion is short‐sighted because ECE cities face structural problems similar to those of their Western pendants. Therefore, the contextual frame of urban research needs to be widened and can no longer be restricted to post‐socialist transition. In this regard, one of the main challenges for future urban development will be the consequences of demographic change. Ageing, new patterns of fertility behaviour and more diversified household structures in line with the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) will have significant implications for urban structures and housing markets, as already known for Western Europe. The purpose of this paper is to work out new questions and hypotheses for future urban research with special respect to Polish and Czech cities. Besides West European experience, recent developments in eastern Germany are taken as a frame of reference, assuming that this specific transition case may, in many respects, be regarded as a forerunner for similar developments in its neighbouring countries.     

当代中国城市化的历程与特征

当代中国城市化的历程,以1978年为界,分为两个时期：1949年至1978年是计划经济体制下的城市化发展时期,1979年迄今是市场经济取向下的城市化发展时期。中国50年来城市化历程的突出特征是城乡分割的二元体制和工农业两极对峙的二元发展模式。分析中国城市化进程中的利弊得失和基本特征,对于实现城市经济系统、社会系统、行政系统、化系统和生态系统的现代化,具有重要的参考价值。     

1949年以来中国城市现代化与城市化关系探讨

作为同一历史进程的两个方面 ,城市现代化与城市化本应相互促进、共同发展 ,但由于现代化启动并发生于特殊的历史时代 ,194 9年以来 ,中国的城市现代化与城市化经历长期的曲折反复 ,两者之间的关系错综复杂 ,并呈现出不同的特征 ,直至改革开放以后 ,城市现代化与城市化才最终走上相互协调的良性发展轨道。     

我国城市化发展的历史、现状与未来

中华人民共和国成立以来,中国的城市化与其经济、社会发展一样,走过半个多世纪的艰难曲折的道路。从发展阶段来看,1978年改革开放为重要的“分水岭”,我国的城市化历程明显可以分为两个不同的历史阶段:1978年以前为城市化的徘徊起伏阶段,1978年以后为城市化的迅速推进阶段。我国城市化发展具有发展水平非典型性、地区发展不平衡、公共服务水平低的特点。实现城市化是新世纪中国经济社会发展的宏观目标和各级政府面临的重大使命。     

US grand strategy and national security: the dilemmas of primacy,decline and denial

The foreign policy crises that the USA has confronted under the administration of President Barack Obama have generated profound uncertainty about whether the USA can maintain what has been its consistent grand strategy since the end of the Cold War: primacy. The authors argue, drawing on a neoclassical realist framework, that this uncertainty has been driven not so much by fundamental changes in the international system itself, but rather by how such changes have been interpreted by the Obama administration and its critics. US grand strategy is now caught between approaches best described as the ‘decline management’ of the Obama administration and the ‘decline denial’ of president Donald Trump, which reflects the fracturing of the domestic ‘political support system’ that has underpinned primacy since the end of the Cold War.     

America and the Canadian Presence: As the United States Faces Global Challenges,How Does Canada Fit In? 1

On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the Center for Canadian–American Studies at Western Washington University, the author considers the trends that will shape US–Canadian relations over the next 40 years. Specifically the author considers the deepening of continental economic integration; the consequences of reaching the limits of current governance of integration and the coming need to negotiate new arrangements and institutions to manage the shared economy; the importance of an anticipated drive for greater public sector productivity in both countries at the federal and state/provincial levels; and the implications of a generational transition in the management of the relationship from the Baby Boomers to a younger generation with an attendant need to maintain the best traditions of amicable bilateral relations while evolving and adapting the management of the relationship in keeping with changing times and new challenges. For each of these changes, it is to be hoped that education in Canadian studies will be available for future leaders in the public and private sectors.     

Employment growth and regional development: industrial change and contextual differences between Denmark and Sweden

This paper explores the potential drivers behind uneven regional development in the context of employment growth in Denmark and Sweden. In particular, we are interested in the roles of urbanization, industrial change and the rise of the new economy as manifested in the growth of the two economies in 2002–2007. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to analyse the impact of a number of key industrial sectors on regional employment growth in the two countries. The empirical analysis is based on longitudinal matched employer–employee data retrieved from official registers in each economy from 2002 to 2007, a period of strong national growth following the crisis of early 2000. Our findings indicate that the two economies follow a similar pattern in addressing total employment growth; but looking at changes in employment levels across the national borders of these two relatively similar open economies, we find that, although in general these economies react relatively similarly to changes, embarking on a narrower analysis of the individual sectors reveals marked national differences. This indicates that context matters in the analysis of regional economic dynamics in terms of structure, system and policy.     

苏联时期俄国城市化的特征及历史渊源

俄国城市的雏形是军事、行政中心，而非手工业、商业中心。苏联时期，俄国城市化发展迟缓，水平低下。从历史根源上看，萎靡不振的大陆性贸易，根深蒂固的专制主义极权统治，村社宗法文化的长期存在，东正教伦理培育起来的俄罗斯民族对市场经济的不适应性、对西方民主自由的蔑视和对个性的扼杀，农奴制改革的短期效应，赶超型的军事工业化战赂，都严重阻碍了苏联时期城市化发展的进程。     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

论小康社会的旅游转型

随着我国社会形态向小康社会的发展,旅游业也出现了相应的转型。本文论述了在转型中旅游目的的变化、旅游目的地的变化、旅游景区开发的变化和旅游服务的变化。     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

The second demographic transition, new household forms and the urban population of France during the 1990s

European household structures and their geography have been transformed in recent decades as a response to the interplay of demographic events and changing lifestyles. The formation of new households generally outstrips the rate of population increase, as more numerous and smaller households result from changing patterns of marriage, child-bearing, divorce and longevity. This paper tests some of the underlying hypotheses of the 'second demographic transition' using data from the most recent (1999) French population census. It provides an analysis of changing national household structures over the last quarter of the twentieth century and highlights the importance of smaller households, with particular emphasis on the rise of living alone. Trends identified in earlier work have intensified during the 1990s. In discussing the geography of new household forms, the paper focuses particularly on the evolution of major central cities and argues for more explicit links between their distinctive population and household structures and wider socio-economic change.     

Urbanization,ruination, and refusal: racialized geographies in 1920s Rio de Janeiro

This article focuses on a community located in downtown Rio de Janeiro that was destroyed to make way for the commemorations of Brazil’s Centenary of Independence in 1922. Morro do Castelo was once a space customarily inhabited by Afro-descendants, but Italian and Portuguese immigrants predominated there by the time of its destruction. I argue that whatever Castelo’s racial heterogeneity it was imagined and treated as a black space by planners and policy makers, hence its disposability. In Castelo's neglect during the colonial period and in the urbanization projects that sought to destroy it in the first two decades of the 20th century, one can discern the continuity of imperial processes of ruination of racialized spaces and bodies. The article examines ways in which residents of Morro do Castelo established territory and engaged in various forms of refusal when faced with the ruination of their neighborhood. The spatial practices of the hillside’s diverse population suggest that its various racialized and ethnic groups mapped difference onto a palimpsestic site that defied official classificatory systems and troubled official mappings of the concept city.