Spatial Mismatch and the Structure of American Metropolitan Areas, 1970–2000

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the impact of employment and population shifts in U.S. metropolitan areas from 1970 to 2000 on a spatial mismatch index to determine how metropolitan residents reacted to changes in metropolitan employment distributions. In particular, it seeks to determine whether suburban employment growth created new areas to which access is valued or whether it repelled metropolitan residents and sparked population growth in more distant suburban locations. The results show that residents tended to move away from areas gaining jobs. Black residents, on the other hand, appeared to be attracted to areas that are experiencing employment growth.     

高速铁路对中国城市产业结构的影响研究

交通是影响城市产业发展的重要因素,高铁作为一种新型交通工具必将对城市产业发展产生影响。修正市场潜力模型分析高铁对中国城市产业结构的影响。结果表明：①总体上,高铁提升了城市服务业的比重,降低了城市制造业的比重;制造业型城市和服务业型城市的服务业比重都得到提升,制造业比重都下降;从单个城市来看,高铁提升了大多数制造业型城市和大多数服务业型城市服务业的比重。②对于制造业型城市的产业结构升级,高铁主要促进该类城市一般服务业比重的提升;对于服务业型城市的产业结构强化,高铁主要促进这些城市高端服务业比重的提升。③高铁的开通增强了中心城市的溢出效应,促进了中心城市及其周边城市的产业结构升级。     

COMPENSATION FOR COMMUTES IN THE LAND AND LABOR MARKETS: SOME EVIDENCE FROM THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN AREA*

ABSTRACT. Recent research suggests that in nonmonocentric cities compensation for commutes takes the form of both lower housing prices and higher wages. This paper develops a random utility model that predicts the probability of an actor choosing to commute between each residence and job in a metropolitan area conditional on the observed location of housing units and job sites. The model allows commuting time, origin-specific amenities, land prices, destination-specific amenities and wages to influence actors' choices. We estimate the model using maximum likelihood and generalized least squares techniques and data on commuting between each of 38 origin and 15 destination jurisdictions in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The empirical results show that, all else equal, a one percent increase in commuting time reduces the probability that a route (origin-destination combination) will be chosen by almost five percent. Origin-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into land prices and destination-specific amenities are not completely capitalized into wages. Desirable residential amenities include school quality and a low ratio of day to night population. Desirable workplace amenities include a large share of white collar jobs and a high density of employment.     

高速铁路的社会经济影响与空间效应的研究进展——基于国际SCI和SSCI期刊论文的分析

高速铁路正在重塑区域空间格局,并对社会经济发展产生深刻影响。本文以检索获得的347篇高速铁路社会经济影响与空间效应研究相关的国际SCI和SSCI期刊论文为研究对象,从文献来源、发文量年际变化、作者和机构、载文期刊、研究主题等方面对全球高速铁路社会经济效益研究的趋势和特征进行了系统分析;并从高速铁路的空间效益、经济影响以及社会影响等三个方面对研究内容和主题开展了系统综述;最后从研究趋势和研究内容等方面归纳了主要结论,提出未来研究的趋势与方向。结果表明,在高速铁路快速发展推动下,全球高速铁路效应研究呈现快速增长的态势,并在高速铁路的空间效应、社会经济效应等方面取得了较为丰硕的成果。中国大陆学者在高速铁路效应研究上异军突起,成为近年来国际发表论文最多的国家,但在研究深度和广度以及研究成果影响力上与西班牙等欧美国家仍有较大的差距。     

Airport delays and metropolitan employment

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the impact airline delays have on urban employment. While previous works have suggested that road congestion can slow down regional development, the influence of air traffic delays on metro‐level jobs has not been examined comprehensively. The present study uses a nine‐year panel of quarterly data, which covers passenger airline traffic and delays at airports across urban areas in the United States. The panel also includes data on total and industry‐specific employment at the metropolitan‐area level. Our empirical estimates of the impact of air traffic on total employment are comparable to previously reported measures in the literature. However, we find that service‐sector employment is less sensitive to air traffic than other studies suggested. We provide new evidence confirming that delays have a negative effect on employment, a finding that is robust to various specifications of our empirical model. Our results indicate that a 10 percent increase in the number of delayed flights leads to up to a 0.15 percent decrease in total and service‐sector employment, a 0.47 percent decline in leisure and hospitality employment, and a 0.7 percent reduction in the employment level of goods‐producing jobs.     

Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain

The 2008 financial and economic crisis has led to widespread destruction of employment in Spain. Using municipality data, I examine employment growth differences between urban cores, urban hinterlands, and rural areas during the pre‐crisis period and the recession period. The data show that patterns of growth and decline have been very uneven across different types of areas. While in the boom years, hinterlands and rural areas experienced higher growth, urban core areas have done better during the recession years. I then test three strands of explanations for local growth differences: (i) the role of the local sectoral composition, (ii) the role of human capital, and (iii) the role of access to urban core areas. Estimations for employment growth in the two periods show that the crisis has altered some of the drivers of local employment growth and that human capital has been a key determinant of local resilience during the Great Recession.     

美国大都市区尺度上的工业区位研究

工业化和城市化之间的互动关系体现在都市区尺度上的工业区位上。本文在新经济地理学和城市地理学所揭示的产品差异化和城市集聚效应相互关系的基础上,通过区位熵分析、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数,对美国工业区位与大都市区间的耦合关系进行实证研究。结果显示:集聚于大都市区核心区的往往是产品个性化和定制化程度较高的行业;位于大都市区外围区的大都是产品依赖于城市市场,但标准化程度较高的行业;传统制造业则往往位于非大都市区。多数都市工业的市场集中度较低,而大部分传统工业的市场集中度较高。这不仅印证了新经济地理学的理论推演和城市地理学的行业分析,而且对包括中国在内的转型国家城市及其产业发展具有重要的参考意义。     

大连市民通勤特征研究

以大连市民日常生活行为调查的结果为基础,根据就业人口及就业岗位的分布信息等进行通勤工具、通勤时间、通勤距离等通勤基本特征的分析,并着重从通勤发生的角度,研究通勤现象的距离衰减规律及其空间结构模式。     

Working women in the city and urban wage growth in the United States

Although the female labor force participation rate of women has been steadily rising in the United States, there is substantial variation across cities. Previous cross‐county studies find that gender inequality in employment reduces economic efficiency hindering growth. This result is examined in a regional context, across metropolitan areas in the United States. Throughout multiple model formulations including instrumental variables approaches, higher initial female labor force participation rates are positively related to subsequent wage growth in metropolitan areas between 1980 and 2010. Specifically, every 10 percent increase in female labor force participation rates is associated with an increase in real wages of nearly 5 percent.     

城市居民出游的高铁选乘行为意向的形成机理——以长沙市为例

高速铁路以快捷、舒适、环保的明显优势促成旅游者的选乘决策。基于已有研究成果,思辨选乘动机、选乘阻碍、阻碍协商策略、行为意向的关系,构建人们高铁选乘意向形成的概念模型。选择长沙市居民进行研究,结果表明:快捷选乘动机和阻碍协商策略对行为意向有正向影响,选乘阻碍对阻碍协商策略和行为意向有负向影响。选乘意向的形成有两条路径,一是直接通过快捷动机形成;二是基于快捷和舒适动机,判断选乘阻碍,采取阻碍协商策略,最后形成行为意向。依据研究结论得到了旅游业发展中科学利用高铁的四点启示。     

Transformation of Istanbul from a monocentric to a polycentric city

This paper investigates the spatial transformation of Istanbul from a monocentric to a polycentric city following the growth of the city and the development of its communications systems. The population and employment of peripheral districts have been growing rapidly, while those of the core districts have decreased. In addition, other variables are utilized for the identification of polycentres such as tax revenues from commercial enterprises, weighted average trip length and volume of mail. The results of the study reveal that the old CBD of Istanbul is no longer a dominant employment centre. Instead, a new CBD is emerging at the intersection of the radial and the peripheral highways, and subcentres are developing in some of the first and second ring districts. A major contributing factor to Istanbul's polycentric development has been the transformation of its economy into one that requires large modem office space and facilities for private automobiles—both of which are difficult to provide within the old CBD. In addition, the construction of peripheral highways has contributed to a pattern of polycentric development. Moreover, there is a desperate need for planned development of these subcentres in order to prevent their current haphazard development and to give a character to the peripheral areas of Istanbul.     

INTRA-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN LUXEMBOURG (1994–2005)

The specialization of city-centres towards more advanced service activities has mostly been studied in the largest city-regions, the case of smaller urban centres being less well documented. In that context, the objective of this article is to analyse the role of sectoral and regional factors in employment growth in Luxembourg between 1994 and 2005. Using statistical data from the Luxembourg General Inspection of Social Security, this contribution distinguishes 12 categories of manufacturing industries and services according to an OECD-Eurostat knowledge-based classification. Five intra-regional areas are distinguished based on morphological and functional criteria in the Luxembourg Metropolitan Area. Using several indexes, this article first analyses the sectoral specialization and geographical concentration of employment. A model of intra-regional employment growth, initially developed by Marimon and Zilibotti and applied at the European level, is then shown to account for 40 per cent of employment growth. An estimation of the contributions of sectoral and geographical factors highlights the primacy of the latter over the former. Finally, the construction of virtual economies confirms the City's overall lower performance as compared to its close periphery. Results underscore a process of functional integration in the Luxembourg metropolitan area: as the core of the city undergoes a specialization process, the urban area benefits from a relocation of activities less sensitive to distance and transaction costs, while the periphery becomes increasingly diversified, notably in the South where traditional industrial activities are being replaced by service activities. These results suggest that the evolution pattern of employment growth in Luxembourg is very similar to that of some larger metropolitan centres, owing to its exceptional financial service activities.     

出行者对城市交通与高铁站接驳的感知评价——以苏州市为例

利用问卷调查数据,采用单因素方差分析方法,分析了苏州出行者对公交车、私家车、出租车、地铁和旅行大巴五种与高铁接驳的城市交通方式的感知需求。研究发现:①出行者对苏州市城市交通与高铁站接驳整体感知处于中等水平,其中对苏州市公交车满意度最高,其次为出租车、私家车和地铁,最后为旅行大巴;②不同人口学特征群体对不同城市交通方式与高铁站接驳感知存在差异,并存在对应规律,其中,性别与价格、年龄与便捷性、职业与社会性、月收入与外部设施建设、出行目的与时间性以及出行频率与线路设计存在对应关系。最后,根据城市交通与高铁站接驳存在的问题提出改善城市交通的相关建议。     

The Hinterland's Stake in Metropolitan Growth: Evidence from Selected Southern Regions

In this article we extend the Carlino and Mills and Boarnet models of local development to test for the presence and direction of rural area linkages to urban areas in Functional Economic Areas (FEAs). In a sample of southern FEAs, we detect a mix of spillover and backwash effects from urban core and fringe areas to their rural hinterlands. Rural-area population and employment both grew faster than average between 1980 and 1990 if in an FEA with a pattern of urban decentralization.     

New Moscow: An Exploratory Assessment

An American geographer specializing in Russia examines the unprecedented plan announced in mid-2011 by the country's President Dmitriy Medvedev to expand the territory of Moscow and move government offices to newly annexed areas. The plan aims to increase the land area of the capital by 155 percent, mainly by annexation of a vast tract southwest of the city. The author demonstrates that while "New Moscow" is envisioned as a multi-polar and low-density urban site, the historic core would likely focus on tourism. He discusses the official reasons given for the immense undertaking, the potential problems raised by urban specialists and local media, as well as the results of public opinion polls detailing the attitudes of Muscovites toward the city's proposed transformation.     

上海、东京城市化进程及动力因子比较研究

本文以中国上海和日本东京为案例地,从人口、经济、土地、社会,城市化内涵的四个方面入手,运用熵值法对上海1985-2012 年和东京1954-2009 年的城市化水平进行综合测度,对比分析二者城市化进程,其次利用主成分回归法对二者城市化进程的驱动因子进行对比分析。结果表明：①上海目前处于城市化继续发展阶段,以城市经济的增长和土地面积的扩张为主要特征;东京目前处于城市化稳定发展阶段,经济的迅速发展和社会服务体系的完善是其城市化的主要体现;②城市化进程动力因子对比显示,上海主要依靠投资、内需及城市土地扩张推动,经济外向力作用相对较弱,而东京城市化动力中经济外向力作用明显。     

Employment Deconcentration: A New Perspective on America's Postwar Urban Evolution

In this study we show that during the postwar era the United States experienced a decline in the share of urban employment accounted for by the relatively dense metropolitan areas and a corresponding rise in the share of relatively less dense ones. This trend, which we call employment deconcentration , is distinct from the other well–known regional trend, namely, the postwar movement of jobs and people from the frostbelt to the sunbelt. We also show that deconcentration has been accompanied by a similar trend within metropolitan areas, wherein employment share of the more dense sections of MSAs has declined and that of the less dense sections risen. We provide a general equilibrium model with density–driven congestion costs to suggest an explanation for employment deconcentration.     

Cultural shock of high-speed rail: Evidence from social trust

The opening of high-speed rail (HSR), as an exogenous shock, has had a profound and complex effect on social life. This study analyzes the effect of the opening of HSR on social trust. Results show that the opening of HSR promotes social trust. Mechanism analysis showed that although the opening of HSR accelerated population mobility and decreased trust in strangers, economic growth and improvement of local social issues mitigated the negative effects of its opening. In addition, our results also show that individuals turn to trust in their parents, neighbors, and doctors. Considering the potential endogeneity problem, instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimators consistently indicated the promoting effect of the HSR opening on trust. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the opening of HSR had a greater effect on female, urban residents, younger groups, and married people. Last, cities with larger populations and tourist cities were more vulnerable to shocks.     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.     

深圳市就业空间结构及其演变(2001-2004)

本文基于2001年基本单位普查和2004年经济普查数据,探讨深圳市就业空间结构的特征及演化趋势。研究表明,深圳市的就业空间结构存在就业密度下降、集聚程度不强、制造业占绝对地位、服务业郊区化等现象,而规划和市场是推动其演变的主要力量,在二者的共同作用下,深圳市就业空间结构将呈现以下的演变趋势:(1)从"带状组团式"向"网状组团式"转变;(2)制造业转型导致就业规模缩减;(3)服务业郊区化促进中心外围组团发展;(4)高端服务业集聚进一步增强。