中国城市化水平的综合判断

在测度和评价城市化水平高低时应该对人口城市化水平和城市人口绝对规模进行综合判断。学界通常用市区非农业人口口径来计算城市化水平,对城市外来人口考虑不够。对这种偏小的口径进行修正后发现中国的城市化水平至多略低于同等收入下的国际城市化水平。从城市人口与城市经济的适应程度看,中国的城市劳动生产率与发展状况类似的国家相比有偏低的倾向。因此,与流行的看法相反,中国的城市化水平与经济发展相适应的。笔者认为中国城市的存量部分已经"人满为患",未来城市化的着力点应是城市的增量部分,包括现有城市规模的扩大和新城市的设置。应进行户籍制度、土地制度、创业制度等制度创新,为城市发展提供宽松的外部环境。     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

Population,light, and the size distribution of cities

We provide new insights on the city size distribution of countries around the world. Using more than 10,000 cities delineated via geospatial data and a globally consistent city identification scheme, we investigate distributional shapes in all countries. In terms of population, we find that Zipf's law holds for many, but not all, countries. Contrasting the distribution of population with the distribution of economic activity, measured by nighttime lights, across cities we shed light on the globally variant magnitude of agglomeration economies. Deviations from Zipf's law are to a large extent driven by an undue concentration in the largest cities. They benefit from agglomeration effects which seem to work through area rather than through density. Examining the cross‐country heterogeneity in the city size distribution, our model selection approach suggests that historical factors play an important role, in line with the time of development hypothesis.     

The Spatial Distribution of the Internet in the European Union: Does Geographical Proximity Matter?

This paper examines the spatial distribution of the Internet in the European regions. To achieve this aim, our analysis combines a set of non-parametric techniques proposed in the context of the economic growth literature, with various spatial econometric instruments. The results reveal that regional disparities in Internet adoption are greater than territorial inequalities in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In addition, our findings show that the distribution under consideration is characterized by the presence of positive spatial dependence, which implies that physically adjacent regions register a similar degree of Internet adoption. Finally, the analysis carried out allows us to assess the role played by variables such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, stock of human capital and population density, in explaining the spatial distribution of the Internet in the European Union.     

中国收缩城市土地利用效率及其影响因素研究

依据人口统计数据与NPP-VIIR夜间灯光影像识别出2013-2017年中国收缩城市,运用超效率SBM模型测算收缩城市土地利用效率,并构建Tobit模型分析其影响因素.结果发现:①2013-2017年,收缩城市土地利用效率均值降低了1.44％,且各年份均低于增长城市与全部城市.实现土地有效利用的收缩城市占比较小,大多数...     

区域物流辐射范围的测度研究

为了分析不同区域物流在空间中的相互作用,本文基于断裂点理论构建了区域物流辐射范围的测度模型。以吉林省省会长春市为例,应用模型测度长春物流和经济的辐射范围,并通过与吉林省另一较大规模城市-吉林市的比较,对长春市区域物流规模、对邻接和外围区域物流和经济的辐射范围测度等空间作用方面进行了分析,为规划发展省会的区域物流以带动省内其他区域物流的发展提供了依据。     

中国城市流动人口的空间结构

利用中国公安部1996年流动人口统计数据,采用空间统计分析方法和断裂点法,对中国城市流动人口的空间结构进行研究发现,中国城市流动人口主要集中在沿海地带,而且客观存在着三大城市流动人口圈:①京津连流动人口圈。为中国第三大的城市流动人口圈,具有性别比高、来自圈外的流动人口比重大、以亲缘、地缘为纽带聚居等特点。②沪宁杭流动人口圈。为中国第二大的城市流动人口圈,具有来自省内的流动人口比重高、暂住时间差距大等特点。③广深厦流动人口圈。为中国最大的城市流动人口圈,具有女性流动人口比重高、来自外省的流动人口比重大等特点。     

中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。     

A Historical GIS Approach to Studying the Evolution of the Railway and Urban Networks: The Balkans, 1870–2001

Abstract

The study investigates the complex relationship between border changes, railway construction, and the formation of the urban network of the Balkans between 1870 and 2000. The historical geographic information system is applied to measure the impact of border changes and railway construction on the growth of towns and cities and the concentration of urban population during a complex and important period for the formation of the economic geography of the region. While the research done so far has mainly focused on national contexts, the use of historical geographic information systems allows one to present a transnational perspective. The lack of historical continuity in the administrative organization of the Balkan states is offset by focusing on towns and cities instead of regions or municipalities. The results confirm the initial perception that in this part of the continent, national boundaries play a key role in determining the spatial distribution of population and economic activity.     

环渤海地区三大城市群外向服务功能测度与比较

选取1997年和2004年环渤海地区京津冀、辽中南、山东半岛三大城市群的人口、从业人员、GDP、人均GDP等指标,运用外向功能量、城市流强度、城市流倾向度等模型,测度了三大城市群外向服务功能,并与长三角、珠三角相比较。结果表明:京津冀城市群外向服务功能居环渤海地区首位,辽中南次之,山东半岛位居最后;与1997年相比,山东半岛、京津冀外向服务功能均呈上升态势,仅辽中南出现了小幅度下降;与长三角、珠三角相比,三大城市群外向服务功能都弱于长三角,京津冀外向服务功能略强于珠三角,而辽中南和山东半岛则明显弱于珠三角。     

Convergence and Divergence in the Australian Space Economy

Australia's space economy has changed rapidly since the 1970s through processes of globalisation, economic restructuring and demographic change. Trends in population distribution and patterns of employment and investment in economic activity highlight both spatial diffusion and concentration. Migration to ‘sun belt’ regions and suburban growth in the mega metro regions is creating population-led demand for production and services, thus creating investment growth and new employment in some consumer-oriented economic activities. However many internationally linked and national market serving economic functions are increasingly concentrated in the two largest cities at strategically located old and new nodes of agglomeration. No longer can population growth be equated directly with increased economic activity, and there are significant spatial mismatches between the outcomes of demographic and economic processes across the nation's cities and regions.     

北部湾城镇群空间结构及其扩张规律研究

空间结构是优化城镇群地域功能的基础。根据新型城镇化和空间结构理论,用地统计、反距离权重等空间分析方法,研究广西北部湾城镇群空间结构分异规律得出：(1)北部湾城镇群以南宁市为中心向周边呈“核心—边缘”分异格局,时空集聚性和差异性渐趋扩大。(2)大城市空间聚集和结构分异不断增大,社会、经济要素空间扩张显著快于人口、土地要素,对外贸易和吸引投资是空间扩张的核心动力,非农化增长也是重要驱动。(3)城区面积与空间结构关系最密切,但投资、贸易、GDP、非农化扩张较快,人口、土地要素空间扩张显著滞后,各要素向大城市集聚的趋势显著,结构分异趋向扩大;绝大部分属于外贸、投资扩张型城镇。应强化南宁市集聚规模,提升工业化水平,扩大区内外合作,全面融入“一带一路”和大湾区新格局。     

On the number and size of cities

We study the effects of a decrease in inter-city transport costson the spatial distribution of population in a multi-regionaleconomy, when a rise in the regional population generates higherurban costs. Holding the number of cities constant, as transportcosts are reduced gradually from a very high level to a verylow level, there is a first phase in which large cities growwhile small cities shrink, a second phase in which both largeand small cities grow while medium size cities shrink, and athird phase in which large cities shrink while small citiesgrow. Furthermore, when the number of cities is allowed to varyas transport costs are reduced from large to small values, itfirst decreases and then increases.     

长江三角洲城市入境旅游流区域内流动份额分析

该文运用模糊综合评判法与层次分析理论,结合长江三角洲城市旅游相关研究资料与研究成果,构建了长江三角洲某特定城市的入境旅游者对该区域其它城市旅游目的地选择的模糊综合评判矩阵。该文应用相应的模糊综合评判矩阵分别对上海、南京、杭州、苏州、无锡、宁波等长江三角洲6座城市的入境旅游者对该区域其它城市的旅游流份额进行了定量分析,并对这6座城市在长江三角洲的旅游流流动规律进行了定量分析与评价。     

Misconceptions and Complexities in the Study of China's Cities: Definitions,Statistics, and Implications

A noted American authority on urbanization and the household registration system in China reviews and clarifies factors leading to misunderstanding and misconceptions regarding the number of inhabitants of China's major cities. Principal sources of confusion linked to reliance on official statistical sources are the multi-layered meanings of the term "city" and, consequently, simultaneous publication and use of a multitude of official population statistics for the country's "cities." Other complicating factors analyzed by the author include the effects of the Chinese hukou (household registration) system and the rapid rate of urban growth and change over the last three decades. Systematic population and per capita GDP data for the years 2000 and 2005, all based on the multiple boundaries and systems for five major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen), are collected to illustrate both the countrywide situation and specific cases. Also included is a critique of several studies and popular accounts of Chinese cities to highlight misstatements and areas of misunderstanding based on inappropriate use of statistical data. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, O53, P20, R12. 2 figures, 6 tables, 130 references.     

旅游吸引物空间结构分析——以中国首批国家4A级旅游区(点)为例

本文利用地理数学方法中的空间分析手段,通过对首批国家4A级旅游区(点)在不同地域范围的空间分布规律进行研究,以及对各旅游区(点)与非农业人口在20万以上的城市之间的空间关系分析,揭示了国家首批4A级旅游区(点)的空间结构整体特征,以及与不同规模客源市场之间的距离分异特征,为旅游目的地空间结构理论研究提供了基础方法。     

What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal

The attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements into or out of them. Understanding the appealing features is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant for migration. However, such discussion has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Régua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results show that the economic activity is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, characteristics specific to each city, related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city’s attractiveness. The cause of population shrinkage was also found to influence residents’ assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants’ intention to continue living in their city of residence.     

Population Distribution and Spatial Structure in Transitional Chinese Cities: A Study of Nanjing

Two geographers use population surface model techniques to analyze the distribution of population in Chinese cities. Focusing on Nanjing, they utilize detailed urban land use and building distribution data to develop a productive alternative method to reveal spatial variations in the distribution of inhabitants. The findings indicate that despite suburbanization, Nanjing remains a compact city with a population density that declines rapidly as distance from its central business district increases. Also, suburbanization has been limited to an inner area where population is densely distributed while commercial and office development is less prominent. Lastly, commercial activities influence the distribution of urban inhabitants and suburbanization more significantly than industrial development in suburbia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O15, O18, R12, R14. 9 figures, 3 tables, 37 references.     

An Empirical Enquiry into the Impact of Urban Planning Policy on Urban Growth

Recent research has stressed the need to evaluate the economic implications of urban planning policy. In this article, we present empirical evidence on the impact of this policy on the population growth of towns and cities. A simple theoretical model serves to highlight the mechanisms whereby this policy may affect urban growth. The model yields a reduced-form equation which we estimate for the towns and cities of Andalusia (Spain). The empirical model strongly supports the claim that urban planning policy considerably affects urban growth and thus, the distribution of population across space. Our results suggest that urban planning policy is contributing to the reduction of diseconomies of agglomeration in larger cities. On the negative side, we find that urban plans are subject to obsolescence, which slows down growth.     

中国城市职能结构的特征研究

本文利用1999年的城市数据库和纳尔逊分类方法分析了我国城市职能的基本特征,对各行业的就业频率分布曲线进行了分析,并比较了不同城市规模、不同地域城市职能差异,认为我国城市工业职能较强,就业比重较大;城市工业专业分工程度较低;我国城市职能随城市规模变化出现一定变化规律,建筑业比重随城市规模的增大而减小,科教文卫等服务业随着规模的增大而增大;我国城市职能结构表现在空间上的差异是东部城市工业职能较强,西部城市行政、科教等服务业就业比重较高。