From adversaries to allies: ethnic gerrymandering and ethnic party behaviour in local elections in Macedonia

Constitutional designers often construct political institutions to provide greater autonomy to ethnic minority groups. One tool available to constitutional designers is ‘ethnic gerrymandering’, where the boundaries of local government units are altered to provide greater representation to minority groups. This paper analyses the effects of changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities, which occur as a result of ethnic gerrymandering, on ethnic party behaviour. I compare ethnic party behaviour in local elections in the Republic of Macedonia from 2000 to 2013. I expand on a theory initially proposed by Sherrill Stroschein linking ethnic demography to ethnic party behaviour. I find that changes in the ethnic composition of municipalities influence whether rival ethnic parties engage in outbidding or whether ethnic communities unite behind a single ethnic party. My findings have important implications for those tasked with designing political institutions in ethnically divided societies.     

Probing the reds and blues: Sectionalism and voter location in the 2000 and 2004 U. S. presidential elections

The election outcomes of a place hinge largely on what is within its political boundaries: economic, social, cultural, and other compositional factors facing voters. Yet, it is also important to investigate geographic context, both within and between places. This study presents renewed emphasis on two geographic factors that relate to electoral outcomes while controlling for compositional attributes: sectional distinctions and population density. Within different regions of the United States and across different locations (urban, suburban, and rural residents), there exist notable differences in presidential voting. Using survey and county-level data on the 2000 and 2004 U.S. presidential elections, this study evaluates the partisan preferences of voters from a regional perspective, and from a density perspective. The findings demonstrate independent relationships between section and voting, and location and voting. A major consequence of the distinctiveness of section and location in the face of migration effects (as noted by others) is the increased spatial polarization of the electorate's political preferences in these recent presidential contests.     

The political geography of campaign advertising in U.S. House elections

The extent to which elections are useful instruments of accountability is closely related to the ability of citizens to acquire and utilize information about candidates running in those contests. In this paper, I examine the visibility of campaigns for the United States House of Representatives by analyzing how candidates, political parties and interest groups strategically allocate campaign advertising in media markets and congressional districts across the United States. I show that this allocation is based not only on the competitiveness of the campaign, but also according to the cost and reach of the media markets that dominate congressional districts. Overall, the findings indicate the importance of political geographic considerations for understanding the substantial variation in advertising aired both across and within congressional districts during House campaigns.     

The impacts of extra-territorial voting: Swings,interregnums and feedback effects in New Zealand elections from 1914 to 2011

How are elections affected by the votes of people living abroad? The majority of states now allow extra-territorial voting in some form, but the research literature on this topic remains underdeveloped. Moreover, even though extra-territorial voting raises issues about the relationship between territory and political obligation that are relevant to political geographers, political geography has been under-represented in discussions on the topic. Against this background, this research examines a century of overseas voting impacts in New Zealand, a country with an unusually long recorded history of such activity. The study identifies three types of extra-territorial voting impact over the period 1914-2011, referred to as swings, interregnums and feedback effects.     

A GIS-based spatial analysis on neighborhood effects and voter turn-out:: a case study in College Station,Texas

This paper examines individual voter turn-out and its putative relationship with voting outcomes at the voting precinct level. Via a GIS-based address matching procedure, we were able to georeference individual voters (registered voters who casted their votes) and non-voters (those registered voters who did not cast their votes) for three recent local referenda in College Station, Texas. We then conducted a scale-sensitive, second-order spatial analysis for the spatial distribution of voter turn-outs, followed by a spatial clustering analysis of the voting results using Getis–Ord’s G_i statistic. We found that the extent of neighborhood effects in local elections is heavily influenced by the voter turn-out. If voter turn-out is clustered at intermediate and large scale, voting results tend to be clustered and also exhibit a sharp polarization between high and low values. If voter turn-out tends to be uniform/regular at intermediate scales but randomly distributed at both small and large scales, there appears to be less clustering in the voting results and thus lack of the neighborhood effect. If the voter turn-out pattern is mixed-uniform/regular at the small scale, random at the intermediate scale, but clustered at the large scale, the voting results show a stronger neighborhood effect.     

Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies

By using data of the elections for the Chamber of Deputies of 1997 and 2000 in Mexico, we fit spatial autologistic models with temporal effects to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects on those elections. The binary variable of interest is the one that indicates a win of the National Action Party (PAN) or the alliance that it formed. By spatial effect, we refer to the fact that neighbouring constituencies present dependence on their electoral results. The temporal effect refers to the existence of dependence, for the same constituency, of the result of the election with the result of the previous election. The model that we used to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects is the spatial autologistic model with temporal effects for which estimation is complex and requires simulation techniques. By defining an urban constituency as one that contains at least one population center of 200,000 inhabitants or more, among our principal results, we find that, for the Mexican election of 2000, the spatial effect is significant only when neighbouring constituencies are both urban. For the election of 1997, the spatial effect is significant independent of the type of neighbouring constituencies. The temporal effect is significant on both elections.     

Neglect,Inattention, and Legislative Deficiencies: The Consequences of One-Party Deliberations in The U.S. House

Congressional scholars have conducted little research on the consequences of the majority party controlling bill formulation and excluding minority members from the legislative process. Critics of one-party deliberations use case-study evidence to argue that such processes lead to error-prone, often defective legislation. However, no large-N analysis has sought to operationalize and verify this effect. I develop new empirical strategies to explore claims about the relationship between deliberative procedures and policy outcomes. Examining legislation drafted in the U.S. House between 1987 and 2008, I find suggestive but consistent evidence of error-prone bills being developed under one-party processes.     

Drinking the Tea: The Tea Party Movement and Legislative Agendas in the U.S. Senate

This article empirically investigates the impact of the Tea Party movement in the U.S. Congress by examining senatorial legislative agendas, including bill and resolution introductions and cosponsorships. Specifically, we test how senators responded to the Tea Party movement by increasing their attention to specific Tea Party issues. Our analysis accounts for state-level and electoral factors, including the level of grassroots Tea Party activity in a senator’s home state and the presence of a Tea Party primary challenger. Our findings indicate that the Tea Party led Republican senators to focus more on economically conservative issues in their legislative agendas, and that this impacted the Republican Conference as a whole. Our study of the Tea Party movement in the Senate highlights how national forces can shape legislative activity in Congress.     

: The prophetic act of consulting Yhwh in Jeremiah 21,2 and 37,7

Abstract

The paper studies Jer 21,2; 37,7 and some related examples, focusing on the functions performed by the prophet. An investigation of the word as a designation of the act of “consulting a deity by a prophet,” provides data to demonstrate that this activity forms an important part of Biblical prophecy.

Claiming that previous studies of Jer 21 and 37 in relation to prophetic intercession have been largely dominated by the form‐critical concern to establish the the Sitz im Leben of the texts and the Amt of the prophet, a renewed analysis attempts to look beyond these concerns, and rather ask what the texts say about the prophetic act of consulting YHWH.     

Perspectives on democratic consolidation in Southern Africa: The five general elections of 2004

Huntingdon's ‘third wave’ of democracy came late to Africa, but five countries held general elections in 2004, providing an opportunity to reflect on degrees of democratic consolidation in the region. African political dynamics are considered in relation to the political and economic environment together with national, ethnic and regional identities and the way in which these may influence democratic consolidation. The electoral systems of the five countries are considered in relation to the dominant party effect. The course and outcomes of the five elections are examined in relation to indicators of participation and competition suggested by Lindberg. The latter's indicators of legitimacy are considered in relation to more detailed analysis of each election in its national context, paying attention to the influence of ethnic, regional and other divisions on outcomes, which are mapped. Major procedural flaws prevented democratic consolidation in Mozambique and hindered it in Malawi, where the party system also proved unstable. South Africa, Namibia and Botswana satisfied most of the criteria apart from turnover and provide convincing evidence of the institutionalisation and acceptance of democracy, albeit qualified by the continuing dominance of their governing parties. In all five countries the equation of democracy with socio-economic benefits threatens disillusionment in the face of poverty and inequality.     

The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.

本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票,并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化,以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起,天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票;2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价;他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题,而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象,其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。     

Facework on Facebook: The presentation of self in virtual life and its role in the US elections

This article analyses the phenomenon known as social networking services (e.g. websites such as Facebook and MySpace) with anthropological theory deriving mainly from Melanesia. It is argued that these websites engender what in Western countries is a new form of presentation of self- and personhood that focuses on the social relations of the person rather than the person as an individual. In this way, the article discusses consumption in cyberspace and the production of differentiation, rank and hierarchy on the Internet in relation to social identity.     

The President as Legislative Leader: The Use of Veto Power in Environmental Policy Making

Presidents use legislative powers in many ways to influence environmental policy. The relationship between partisanship and the use of these powers is an open question. Previous research has shown that legislative powers such as the passage of legislation and budgetary decisions display bipartisan effects. This study argues that this does not hold true for veto power. Presidents of different parties approach environmental legislation differently and use vetoes in dissimilar ways. Understanding these differences allows for a better comprehension of how environmental policy decisions are made and the role of presidents in this process.