Methodology, Statistics, and Voting Error: An Exploration of 2000 Presidential Election Data in Two States

In the wake of the voting controversy of Election 2000, along with passage of a congressional measure designed to fix what many believe is an ailing voting system, research into the impact of voting equipment on residual voting error has become a crucial question as the states prepare to replace existing voting equipment through the use of matching federal funds, to adjust existing equipment, or to face yet more lawsuits. Most existent studies into the link between voting equipment and residual voting error have concentrated on voting equipment across the states rather than within the individual states, generating results that are subject to a possible aggregation bias. Using a variety of statistical techniques, data on Election 2000 U.S. presidential and U.S. senatorial races are analyzed in an attempt to determine the impact of voting equipment on the voting error levels intrastate in those races. This study presents analysis of two sets of state data, Wyoming and Pennsylvania, and is used to argue that the infamous punch-card voting equipment may not be a significant contributor to an increase in voter error when analyzing intrastate, contrary to existing research that indicates it is significant when analyzed across multiple states. This research underscores the importance of researchers' ideological perspectives in application of statistical methodology to the American policy arena.     

The 1984 Presidential Campaign and the Future of Election Studies

This paper examines the role of leadership in the U.S. House in the context of arguments raised in Woodrow Wilson's Congressional Government. It begins with a discussion of the speakerships of Henry Clay and Thomas Reed as counterexamples to Wilson's generalizations (a model that links the degree of preference homogeneity among legislative followers to a leader's decision about whether to exert policy leadership is presented in an Appendix). Next we argue that preference homogeneity, leadership style and institutional structure form a kind of equilibrium, drawing on the history of the House for supporting evidence. Finally we discuss the application of our theory to House Democrats in the 1980s.     

梁启超《读中华民国大总统选举法》成文时间考订

关于梁启超《读中华民国大总统选举法》的成时间,近年编辑出版的资料集或注为1913年(民国2年),或注为1913年10月。而这些资料直接或间接的来源实际上是一个,即都是以林志     

Party,Personality and Institutional Constraint: The French Presidential Election of 2007

The designer of the French presidency intended it as a supra-partisan office. Yet this ambition was thwarted by the institutional requirement for a majority in the National Assembly, in order to pass legislation. Today, parties control the presidential function, acting as gatekeepers and enablers; their role has not been usurped by media-promoted personalities. But the presidency has its own dynamic effects on party structures, beyond the mere obligation to produce a plausible candidate. A presidential campaign is the high point of party activity, and the 2007 exercise showed a wide range of effects, according to whether parties are viable candidates for government or pure protesters, or whether they fit uneasily between these positions. This article explores some of these dynamic effects.     

MultiLevel Modeling of Space–Time Variations: Exploring Landslide Voting Patterns at United States Presidential Elections, 1992–2016

Much has been written about the polarization of the American electorate and its reflection in its legislatures, but less about its spatial polarization, which Bishop has argued has taken place in parallel with the ideological and behavioral polarization. The extent of that polarization can be assessed, he argues, by identifying the number of landslide counties, those won at presidential elections by margins of 20 percentage points or more. This paper uses a multilevel modeling strategy to explore changes in the number and extent of those landslide counties over the period 1992–2016, relative to both the location of the counties and their population composition. It shows that a county’s population composition was a major determinant of whether it returned a landslide for either party’s candidate at any election—with a clear change in direction over the period for counties according to their level of affluence—but this was by no means the sole determinant. Holding constant those variations there were additional geographies that were more place‐ than people‐specific.     

The Politics of Cognitive Dissonance: Spin,the Media,and Race (and Ethnicity) in the 2008 US Presidential Election

This article examines the roles of spin, the media, and race (and ethnicity) in influencing voter behavior in the 2008 US presidential election. It invokes the concept of cognitive dissonance to explain how political strategists effectively propagandize – i.e., “reinvent their candidates” and “reinvent their opponents' actual record” – in order to successfully garner votes for their candidates. In particular, it considers spin and how spin and the media are used to shape public opinion by causing voters to distrust the veracity, credentials, and records of opposing candidates and to set the policy agenda. It also discusses how race, ethnicity, gender, and policy issues were used in the 2008 US presidential election campaign, and describes the impact of “spinning” on voter behavior and the election outcome. Equally important, it discusses the implications of the Obama victory for Canadian governance in two pivotal areas: domestic race relations and direct parliamentary representation of minorities. The article closes with a brief discussion of the symbolism attributed to Barack Obama's electoral victory by both American and Canadian voters.