EVOLUTION OF URBAN SYSTEMS IN THE PARETO PLANE*

ABSTRACT Distributions of city sizes are usually characterized by their Pareto index. This, however, turns out to be a rather restrictive view, for the Pareto distribution is known to become singular whenever the Pareto index becomes smaller than one, a case which is fairly frequent in empirical distributions. We show that the introduction of finite Pareto distributions in which city sizes are bounded from above solves a number of difficulties encountered by the rank-size rule and by the unbounded Pareto distribution. Combined with the use of finite Pareto distributions, the green-belt model that has been introduced previously is reexamined. It implies definite constraints for the long-run evolution of urban systems; it is in the cases of countries experiencing a process of fast urbanization that these constraints are of greatest significance. The implications of the model are confronted with empirical evidence concerning the evolution of urban systems in major industrialized countries during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.     

Further Understanding Spatial Inertia: A Reply to Plastria and Rosing

Our position with respect to Plastria and Rosing's comments isqualified. Some of their comments are irrelevant because they attack a general statement that is not included in Tellier and Vertefeuille's paper (1995). Portions of their comments on the mathematical framework are relevant and have some implication for the validity of the mathematical relations proposed. A new analysis of the local behavior of the Weberian optimum is presented and its probabilistic interpretation is emphasized. On the basis of this analysis and ofempirical observation, we maintain that Tellier and Vertefeuille's paper was generically correct with regard to spatial inertia.     

Multiple agents,blame games and public policy-making: the case of local government reform in New South Wales

Politicians often use ‘independent experts’ to avoid blame for contentious public policy. The use of multiple agents, however, has attracted relatively little attention. We extend the blame-avoidance literature to identify additional opportunities and risks that arise when multiple agents are used to support/oppose particular public policies. We then test our propositions using evidence from recent local government reforms in New South Wales. The picture which emerges is largely one of confusion whereby independent agents provide contradictory opinions, attempt to shift blame to one another, and dispute interpretations of earlier advice. We conclude our analysis with a discussion of the salient factors for successful pursuit of the multiple-agent variant of the blame games.     

Where Do Cities Form? A Geographical Agglomeration Model for Europe*

Abstract. In the recent literature on spatial agglomeration models, substantial progress has been made in modeling urban structures in terms of number and size of cities, but the question where cities arise remains unanswered. This paper illustrates that if a spatial agglomeration model is extended with a true geographical dimension, the location of cities can also be endogenized. A geographical agglomeration model for Europe shows that the size and place of cities can be simultaneously determined. The empirical results suggest that elementary economic forces such as agglomeration economies and transportation costs might be able to explain place and size of cities in the long run to a substantial degree. In addition, some new statistical measures of fit are discussed that are needed to evaluate simulations results of this kind.     

新区域主义视角下长株潭城市群区域一体化过程与影响因素

在新区域主义理论视角下,借鉴城市引力模型、经济网络结构模型和比较集中系数的方法,对长株潭城市群区域一体化进行分析。结果表明：长株潭城市群区域一体化水平在不同的时代背景下存在显著差异,其变化过程呈现出“高-低-高”的“V”字型特征。可划分为三个阶段：第一个阶段是1980年到1990年区域一体化程度较高的阶段,后计划经济是其发展的时代背景;第二个阶段是1990年到2000年由计划经济向社会主义市场经济转轨,是区域一体化的低谷阶段;第三个阶段是在2000年之后,随着社会主义市场经济的确立,城市群进入区域一体化程度更高的阶段。长株潭城市群区域一体化影响因素逐步由政府力量为主转为市场力量为主,呈现出明显的新区域主义特征。     

从中外城市群发展看中原经济隆起——中原城市群发展研究

文章通过对区域城市化发展历程分析和世界城市化发展实践研究,指出了工业化、城市化是现代化的必然过程和结果,城市群是城市化发展的高级形式。我国正经历着城市化加速发展阶段,城市群是未来我国空间经济组织的主导形式。中原城市群将在我国产业布局和中原隆起中发挥重要作用。文章对中原城市群发展的优势、问题、空间组织、产业一体化、大郑州都市圈的发展进行了探讨,对快速运输系统、跨黄河发展、政府角色等问题进行了研究。     

A SIMPLIFICATION AND GENERALIZATION OF THE EXCLUSION THEOREM: A TECHNICAL NOTE

Several researchers have proven that for the integrated production-location problem on the Weberian triangle, intermediate points on the edge of the triangle can never be optimal locations. Authors of previous proofs of this result have used cumbersome trigonometric arguments. We present a much simpler algebraic proof of the result, and present it in terms of the more general n -input model, where the feasible location space is a convex polygon rather than a triangle. In addition, the result generalizes immediately to other cases, such as (1) multifacility production-location problems, (2) stochastic versions of one-facility and multifacility production-location problems, and (3) comparable pure location problems (e.g., the Weber problem).     

城市群网络化联系研究——以长株潭城市群为例

在全球经济一体化的背景下,城市群网络化是城乡之间多种物质的动态流的最高表现形式,也是城市群形成发展过程中理想的城市化模式。本文根据城市流强度值确定长株潭城市群三级网络节点,构建城市网络联系模型来确定城市与城市之间的网络联系,从而构建长株潭城市群网络的基本形式。研究表明,长株潭城市群处于单核心集聚的城市群演化初级阶段的特征,与发展成为功能互补、水平联系和交互增长的网络城市差距很大,必须通过调整网络各节点产业结构、加强交通运输网络建设、发展信息网络化、建立政府合作新机制等措施增强城市网络联系,加快长株潭城市群网络化发展。     

An information-theoretic approach to the analysis of location and colocation patterns

The study of location and colocation of economic activities lies at the heart of economic geography and related disciplines, but the indices used to quantify these patterns are often defined ad hoc and lack a clear statistical foundation. We propose a statistical framework to quantify location and colocation associations of economic activities using information-theoretic measures. We relate the resulting measures to existing measures of revealed comparative advantage, localization, specialization, and coagglomeration and show how different measures derive from the same general framework. To support the use of these measures in hypothesis testing and statistical inference, we develop a Bayesian estimation approach to provide measures of uncertainty and statistical significance of the estimated quantities. We illustrate this framework in an application to an analysis of location and colocation patterns of occupations in US cities.     

上海陆家嘴金融集聚动因的实证研究

本文利用陆家嘴金融创新问卷调查和面对面访谈等实地调研资料,对上海陆家嘴的金融集聚动因进行了较为深入的探讨。研究发现,邻近金融中心市场、共享知名品牌、金融友善型政府、良好的政策法规是促进其金融集聚的主要动因;而我国金融政策环境开放度不高、金融产业水平较低、市场规模不大、中介服务机构不足则正成为影响陆家嘴金融集聚的主要不利因素。     

DISENTANGLING AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: AGENTS,SOURCES, AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE*

ABSTRACT This paper expands the literature on agglomeration economies in three ways. It disentangles amenity and productivity effects of agglomeration; it decomposes aggregate scale effects into agglomeration factors of interest to policy makers; and it estimates own effects and spillovers to neighbors. It proposes a spatial simultaneous equations model in a spatial equilibrium framework with three agents—workers, consumers, and producers of traded‐goods and housing. Results for Ohio counties estimate economies resulting from population size, agglomeration causes, and public service quality and cost on each of the three agents in own and neighboring counties.     

Geographical Patterns and Some Causes of Spatial Econoetic Variations in Perth,Western Australia

The 54 government senior high schools (SHS) in the Perth metropolitan area provide enough points for a spatial analysis in the search for indicators and correlations that may be used in relation to the results of the Australian scaling test (AST) and the tertiary entrance examination (TEE) in Western Australia. Spatial data are shown by maps, and statistical correlation pairings by graphs. The findings emphasize the great importance of socio-economic factors, such as parents' own education and employment, income and housing standard, as influences on the children's educational choices and results. The disadvantaged position of Aborigines in this respect is also stressed. This type of analysis may help in the planning of new school locations and in the choice of subjects to be offered by each school according to the suburb's socio-economic characteristics. From this analysis emerges a strong geographical pattern which separates a western prosperous belt from an underprivileged eastern belt. This separation has a long history and is due to a combination of landscape morphology, soil quality and drainage.     

北京房地产中介空间格局演化特征及驱动因素分析

本文基于微观企业数据,采用泰森多边形、核密度及空间自相关方法,多尺度考察2001-2010年北京房地产中介门店空间格局演化特征,通过构建地理加权回归模型（GWR）,探究2010年房地产中介空间格局驱动因素。研究表明：①房地产中介集中分布在城六区,数量增速最快功能区是城市发展新区。②空间格局不均衡性增大,空间集聚态势加强。③集聚主核心点出现由"东城"向"朝阳"方向的东推位移,集聚程度加深,主核心区团块面积扩大,次级核心点增多,"两轴、两带、多中心"基本版图形成。④空间集聚现象明显,热点区域扩张,但始终集中在区域中心。⑤驱动效应最大的因素为常住人口,多种驱动因素效应均比较强的街区（乡镇）基本上属于各区县经济水平相对发达的区域。此外,政府政策对其影响也较大。     

城市-区域系统内涵与机理研究——从城市、城市体系、城市群到城市-区域系统

城市与区域的互动一直是城市地理学、经济地理学、区域经济学研究的核心论题,并在经济全球化、城市区域化、城乡一体化背景下日益复杂化。城市-区域系统理论用单元模型来诠释城市-区域系统的互动方式,用系统来消除城乡二元结构的对立,并以加权voronio图来确定城市-区域系统单元的边界,从而把城市与乡村融为一个"一体化地域",由此提出了一个研究地域整合的新视角。在城市-区域系统视域下,中心城市是城市-区域系统的互动核心;城市体系是系统的"骨架"并体现其组织结构;城市群是承担特殊功能的城市-区域系统,须提升其内聚力和外联度,从而达到城市与区域高效互动、综合发展之目的。论文以中原城市群为例,提出了基于核心组织、内聚组织、外联组织和区域支撑四方面的整合建议。     

The spatial scope of agglomeration economies in Brazil

This paper provides evidence about location and colocation patterns of manufacturing entrepreneurship and spatial scope of agglomeration economies in the context of a developing country. Using microgeographic data for all Brazilian manufacturing activities and distance-based measures, we find clear patterns of colocalization between entrants and existing establishments, and that these patterns occur mainly at short distances. For activities presenting colocalization between entrants and existing establishments, our results also indicate that a greater number of incumbent establishments in a given location positively affects the number of entrant establishments that decide to locate there, an effect that attenuates rapidly with distance (generally disappearing after 5 km). This pattern of attenuation is robust to both the inclusion of a comprehensive set of controls for observable and unobservable local characteristics and the use of instrumental variables to address remaining endogeneity concerns.     

城市群概念、形成机制及其未来研究方向评述

城市群是区域思想影响下,随城市集聚发展,城市的功能影响范围超过行政边界,城市区域协作出现并逐步加强而产生的一种人类聚居形式。国内外城市群相关研究指出,城市群是区域不均衡发展的结果,是人口、经济集聚发展的高级形态之一。通过综述国内外城市群相关研究进展,本研究指出,国内城市群研究应统一概念,明确边界,尽可能获取准确的城市群统计数据,进而探究其本质特征。在深入研究产业、人口等因素对城市群的作用机制之外,还应考虑个人、经济组织和政府的影响,正视城市群集聚发展存在的问题,寻求城市群可持续发展的途径。     

现代服务业集聚形成机理空间计量分析

在纳入空间效应前提下,构建现代服务业集聚形成机理空间面板计量模型,对我国28个省域相关数据实证研究表明:我国现代服务业集聚在省域之间有较强的空间依赖性和正的空间溢出效应。技术差异在时间维度上对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著,在空间维度上并不显著;交易费用与现代服务业集聚有显著的负相关性;知识溢出、规模经济、政府行为对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著。     

The Welfare Economics of Rural-To-Urban Migration: The Harris-Todaro Model Revisited

In this paper we extend the Harris-Todaro model of rural-to-urban migration to include urban agglomeration effects, some urban real wage flexibility, and a government budget constraint. Without employment subsidies laissez-faire migration is excessive unless real wage flexibility and agglomeration effects are high. Laissez-faire migration is too low compared with the first-best outcome supported by a subsidy, if its financing involves no costs. Simulations suggest that such a program would imply a substantial increase in taxation. If, as seems likely, an increase of this magnitude involves economic costs then the optimal outcome falls well short of first-best.     

河南高新技术产业集聚分析

本文的研究表明,河南高新技术产业表现出十分明显的集聚特征,并依据其技术的先进性分化出3个空间层次。同时,在集聚主导下,河南高新技术产业布局还存在着分散化趋势。这种格局主要受区位效应、先行效应、企业扩张与衍生的本地化、地方政府的学习机制和发展产业的路径依赖等4个机制的共同作用。河南高新技术产业的集聚产生了明显的集聚效益,集聚效益与各高新区的集聚程度成正比。在此基础上,本文提出了优化高新技术产业布局,加快河南高新技术产业发展的建议。     

城市群规划中的管治研究——以绍兴城市群规划为例

在经济快速发展和城市化快速推进时期,城市群成为经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区。但是,我国城市群发展面临着由于市场经济改革不到位引起的市场和政府的制度性缺陷,以及市场和政府本身的功能性缺陷,导致城市群内条块经济突出、区域发展失衡、地方矛盾加剧等问题。管治作为一种在政府和市场之间进行权利平衡再分配的制度性理念,成为解决城市群发展过程中市场失灵以及政府失灵的必然选择。本文首先总结了城市群管治的理论与模式,在进行国内外区域管治模式借鉴的基础上,以绍兴城市群为例,构建适宜我国发展现状的城市群管治框架。