保护生物多样性 世界才能更多彩

<正>世界自然保护协会、联合国环境规划总署和世界野生动物基金会强调:"无论对人类有何用处,各个物种都应该受到敬重,保护生物多样性是一项原则。"全球复杂的自然条件、丰富的气候资源,加之较古老的地质历史,孕育了极其丰富的植物、动物和微生物物种,形成了纷繁多彩的生态组合。正是因为有这种巨大的生物多样性种群,才构成了生机勃勃的多彩世界。所谓生物多样性,指的是地球上     

保护生物多样性 世界才能更多彩

正世界自然保护协会、联合国环境规划总署和世界野生动物基金会强调:"无论对人类有何用处,各个物种都应该受到敬重,保护生物多样性是一项原则。"全球复杂的自然条件、丰富的气候资源,加之较古老的地质历史,孕育了极其丰富的植物、动物和微生物物种,形成了纷繁多彩的生态组合。正是因为有这种巨大的生物多样性种群,才构成了生机勃勃的多彩世界。所谓生物多样性,指的是地球上     

诗意哥斯达黎加 美如天堂的“中美洲花园”

<正>哥斯达黎加,面积5万多平方公里,占到地球表面的0.03%,但生物种类却占到全世界的5%。25%以上的国土被原始森林覆盖,堪称动植物王国。这里是个被自然和上帝眷顾的"大花园",处处是让人心旷神怡的自然景色,美到令人心醉!世界上绝无仅有的奇特树种哥斯达黎加西临太平洋,东接大西洋,因此我很幸运地见识了加勒比海和太平洋的美丽风光。碧海蓝天,一望     

THE REVEREND BAYES VS. JESUS CHRIST

The Bayesian perspective on historiography is commonsensical: If historiography is not certain like a priori knowledge or sense data, and it is not fiction, historiography is probable. Richard Carrier's book argues for a Bayesian, probabilistic interpretation of historiography in general and of the debate about the historicity of Jesus in particular. Jesus can be interpreted as a historically transmitted reference of “Jesus,” as a bundle of properties, or literally. Carrier devotes too much energy to debating literalism that confuses evidence with hypotheses. But evidence preserves information to different degrees; it is true or not. Carrier proposes to apply objective, frequentist Bayesianism in historiography despite the difficulties in assigning values. He argues that ranges of values can determine historiographical hypotheses. Carrier does not analyze in Bayesian terms the main method for Bayesian determination of posterior probabilities in historiography: inference from multiple independent sources. When the prior probability of a hypothesis is low, but at least two independent evidential sources, such as testimonies, support it, however unreliable each of the testimonies is, the posterior probability leaps. The problem with the Synoptic Gospels as evidence for a historical Jesus from a Bayesian perspective is that the evidence that coheres does not seem to be independent, whereas the evidence that is independent does not seem to cohere. Carrier's explanation of some the evidence in the Gospels is fascinating as the first Bayesian reconstruction of structuralism and mimesis. Historians attempted to use theories about the transmission and preservation of information to find more reliable parts of the Gospels, parts that are more likely to have preserved older information. Carrier is too dismissive of such methods because he is focused on hypotheses about the historical Jesus rather than on the best explanations of the evidence. I leave open questions about the degree of scholarly consensus and the possible reasons for it.     

论宋代的生物资源保护

针对当时社会、生态环境的较大变化,宋代制定并实施了一系列保护生物资源的措施,其中主要有：设置其管理、保护机构,进行生物资源保护的宣传、教育,制定其保护法令,禁止乱砍滥伐森林,不得非时、违法捕猎鸟兽,不许向朝廷上贡珍禽异兽,鼓励植树造林,营建保护性的林带、园林与苑囿,重视森林防火与防治虫害等,从而在一定程度上减缓了当时的生态环境受到破坏或在局部地区继续恶化的现象,并表现出鲜明的时代特点。     

迪拜购物VS享受指南

世界驰名的黄金购买地．许多作品都是由当地的艺术家手工制成。在这里如果买到“缺斤少两”的金饰．可以向政府投诉．一旦查明属实．这家店铺就会被勒令关门．所以黄金街的商家没有欺诈行为。在这里黄金是按重量出售．以克计价．不收设计费和工艺费．汇集了世界各地的款式．可以还价。     

METHODOLOGICAL INDIVIDUALISM VS. COLLECTIVIST HOLISM IN HISTORICAL EXPLANATION

This review essay surveys and assesses Rage and Denials: Collectivist Philosophy, Politics, and Art Historiography, 1890–1947 by Branko Mitrovi?, focusing on a) Mitrovi?'s case that German art‐historical practices during this period were factually ill‐founded, inconsistent, and motivated by narcissism and ethnic prejudice, and b) the broader issue of whether collectivist historical explanations of artistic and cultural developments can ever be apt.     

EQUILATERAL TRIANGLE VS. HEXAGON: A MOST SIMPLE DEMONSTRATION

ABSTRACT. This note presents a most simple proof of the superiority of hexagons over equilateral triangles of the same size in terms of minimization of the average distance between consumers and facilities. It also stresses that, under the same assumptions, facilities are closer to each other in a triangular grid than in an hexagonal grid and that this fact should not be neglected.     

裸体厨师VS地狱厨房

“在世界其他地方,我们从未发现过能带来如此多趣味的餐厅。除了伦敦。”——美国的权威美食杂志《美食家》说,如今,世界上没有任何城市的美食,能与伦敦相媲美,伦敦美食的辉煌时“已经回来”。 这个当年只有带豌豆的早餐和小炸鱼的“糟糕透顶与缺乏创意”国家竟然已经一举战胜巴黎、罗马与纽约等城市,成为世界上最好的“美食之都”。     

生物多样性保护问题与国际社会的回应政策(1972-1992)

生物多样性是实现人类可持续发展的物质基础,人类活动已经对生物多样性造成了严重的损害。从20世纪70年代初到90年代初的20年中,国际生物多样性保护已从单纯的物种保护转到全面系统的保护;从区域性保护转向到全球性保护。生物多样性保护不仅是纯粹的生态问题,而是关系到全球可持续发展的前景问题,也关系到国家利益的分配问题,特别是南北关系问题。     

抢救《目连宝卷》剧迫在眉睫

民和回族土族自治县西沟乡麻地沟大龙山能仁寺有一部《目连宝卷》剧本。据专家考查论证,是一项全国罕见的文化遗产,它是根据唐朝《目连救母》变本演变而成的,历史悠久,艺技惊人。     

THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.     

THE AGGREGATED SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL VS. THE MULTINOMIAL LOGIT: AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON USING MIGRATION MICRODATA

Frequently, in spatial interaction analysis, researchers are forced to use destinations that are zonal aggregates of the ‘real’ destinations perceived by the participants in the interaction process. Previous simulation studies demonstrated that, under certain circumstances, the aggregated spatial choice model can outperform the popular ordinary multinomial logit model, both in explanatory power and predictive ability. In this paper, the two models are compared with interprovincial migration microdata for the time period 1990-91, obtained from the 1991 Canadian census. Since this is not meant to be a migration study, the analysis is limited to out-migrants from Ontario. The results indicate that, at least with the data used, the multinomial logit model performed reasonably well. The paper, however, highlights some practical advantages that can accrue from the use of the aggregated model. Dans l'analyse de l'interaction à référence spatiale, il arrive fréquemment que les chercheurs soient contraints de se servir de destinations qui regroupent les?vraies?destinations perçues par les participants dans le processus d'interaction. Les études en simulations antérieures ont démontré que, dans certaines circonstances, le modèle groupé des choix à référence spatiale peut donner de meilleurs résultats que le modèle ordinaire commun du logit multinomial, sur le plan de la capacité d'explication comma sur celui de la valeur de prévision. Dans la présente étude, on fait la comparaison entre les deux modèles en utilisant les microdonnées sur l'émigration interprovinciale en 1990-91 obtenues par le recensement de 1991. L'analyse ne porte que sur les émigrants de l'Ontario puisqu'elle ne vise pas particulièrement l'étude de l'émigration. D'après les résultats, le modèle employant le logit multinomial fonctionne relativement bien, au moins avec les données utilisées. Toutefois, l'étude souligne certains avantages pratiques pouvant inciter à se servir davantage du modèle groupé.     

WORLd CITIz ENS VS. PEOPLE CHOSEN BY GOd: JOSEPHUS BETWEEN JUd AISM ANd THE ROMAN EMPIRE

<正>Introduction As one Jewish historian who follows classical tradition in his historical composition,Josephus’life was colorful and legendary.1 Born as a Jewish priest2 and later appointed as a senior general during the jewish revolt in 68 AD,josephus surrendered to Rome in Galilee after an unsuccessful resistance and destined defeat,after which he was set free by Vespasian,went to settle down in Rome