Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.     

Hurricane impacts on southeastern United States coastal national park visitation

As a major contributor to local economies, the tourism industry has been greatly impacted by natural disasters. This study demonstrates the association between tourism economies and impacts of hurricanes in the southeastern United States containing coastal national parks, known for attracting a large number of tourists and having experienced hurricanes. In keeping with two longitudinal data methods (i.e. panel logit model and autoregressive integrated moving average), this study focused on the relationship between the (1) duration, intensity, and damage of hurricanes; (2) existing climate conditions; and (3) tourism demand on park visitation during hurricane and tourism seasons. As a whole, the impacts of hurricanes and climate conditions (precipitation, temperature) were found to have a negative effect on tourism demands (park visitation). With regard to the response of tourism economies to natural disaster damage, parks that experienced stronger natural disasters may be closed for a longer period in order to reconstruct facilities or natural/cultural resources damaged by storms. In an attempt to improve tourism-based regional economies, overcome the challenge of natural disasters on tourism economies, and increase opportunities for establishing disaster management, it is necessary to make an effort to allay unexpected damage to tourism-based areas through proactive plans for disaster mitigation activities.     

Climate and visitation to Utah's ‘Mighty 5’ national parks

ABSTRACT

The relationship between climate and visitation to managed natural areas has been analyzed at a variety of different spatial scales. We expand upon our existing knowledge on this topic by: (1) determining how a wide range of climate variables affect visitation across a regional tourism system; and (2) identifying which variables affect visitation system-wide and which variables only affect visitation at specific parks. Our analysis focuses on five national parks located in southern Utah (USA) commonly referred to as ‘the Mighty 5’. We found monthly average daily maximum temperatures were the best predictor of system-wide visitation, suggesting average daily maximum temperatures play a more direct role in tourists’ travel decisions relative to other climate variables, including other derivations of temperature. We also found declines in monthly park visitation for three parks (Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef) once average daily maximum temperatures exceed 25 C. For Bryce Canyon and Zion however, monthly visitation continued to increase well above this threshold. The geophysical characteristics of these parks appear to mediate the relationship between average daily maximum temperature and visitation. The commonly found ‘inverted U-shape’ relationship between temperature and visitation should not be seen as a universal maxim. We also found precipitation to be a poor predictor of system-wide visitation, but a significant factor shaping the travel decisions of visitors to Bryce Canyon, the only park to offer snow-based outdoor recreation opportunities. Future research should not disregard the possibility of precipitation being a significant factor shaping visitors’ travel decisions. By conducting our analyses at two distinct scales, we have found there is a difference between the individual climate variables that are regionally-significant drivers of visitation and those that are locally-significant drivers of visitation. Scale matters in analyses of the relationship between climate and visitation.     

Skiing Less Often in a Warmer World: Attitudes of Tourists to Climate Change in an Australian Ski Resort

Climate change will affect tourism destinations that are dependent on natural resources, such as snow. Currently there is limited research into attitudes, intentions and actual visitation patterns of skiers in response to reduced snow cover. Therefore the awareness of, and attitudes towards, climate change of 351 ski tourists were assessed in the largest ski resort in Australia in 2007, repeating a survey conducted in 1996. Ninety percent of skiers in 2007 would ski less often in Australian resorts if the next five years had low natural snow, up from 75% of skiers surveyed in 1996: 69% would ski less often, 5% would give up and 16% would ski at the same levels but overseas. Nearly all skiers thought that climate change would affect the ski industry (87% compared with 78% in 1996), and that this would occur sooner than in the 1996 survey. Visitation in a poor snow year (2006, +0.85°C average annual temperature, 54% less natural snow) was −13.6% of the long-term average, indicating poor natural snow resulted in decreased visitation, despite extensive use of snow making. The implications of changes in climate conditions and tourist attitudes for Australian ski resorts are assessed including for snow making and summer tourism.     

避暑旅游指数概念模型及评价指标体系构建

气候变暖背景下避暑旅游成为夏季旅游市场的主旋律。地方政府及旅游主管部门在培育避暑旅游目的地时应从何入,手旅游者如何能够准确地做出避暑旅游决策等是一个现实问题。本文在综述国内外相关研究与实践的基础上,认为舒适凉爽的夏季气候条件只是避暑旅游的最基本条件,创新性地提出应侧重从产业发展的角度,引入旅游休闲度、游客满意度和综合风险度等指标。避暑旅游评价指标体系的构建为目的地避暑旅游条件评估提供了理论框架,有助于游客准确地做出避暑旅游决策,同时也为目的地避暑旅游发展与提升提供一个具操作性的管理工具。     

VERP对我国风景名胜区旅游环境容量研究的启示

"游客体验与资源保护"(VERP)框架是美国国家公园管理局(NPS)研究人员对旅游环境容量(TECC)系统研究的成果,它既可以作为制订容量政策的规划框架,又可以作为一种监测和管理工具,这对目前还处在线性、静态研究阶段的我国风景名胜区旅游环境容量研究有很大的启示,VERP提供了一个理性的、符合逻辑的规划框架和操作性强的动态管理工具。     

太白山客源市场结构与游客行为模式研究

太白山森林公园是以秦岭主峰太白山旅游资源为依托开发的集旅游度假、休闲疗养、科学考察为一体的国家4A级旅游景区。本文通过对太白山客源市场结构及游客行为的抽样调查,重点分析了游客对旅游环境的偏好和游客行为模式。     

湿地公园游步道设计的探讨——以杭州西溪国家湿地公园为例

随着湿地公园旅游热的兴起,更为生态化的公园设计显得尤为重要,而游步道作为游客游览的主要通道,正越来越受到关注。本文以杭州西溪国家湿地公园为例,阐述了游步道设计在湿地公园保护中的重要地位和作用,提炼出湿地公园游步道设计的遵循原则,并针对设计中的各个要素进行详细地分析和研究,提出湿地公园游步道的设计应充分体现旅游行为与生态保护的融合。     

Parcs nationaux et populations locales dans l’ouest canadien : de l’exclusion à la participation

Canadian national parks are well‐known for protecting natural areas dedicated to ‘the benefit and the enjoyment of the Canadian people’. The history of national parks illustrates the evolution of a concept of nature from functional conservation, such as tourism, to an environmental conception, based on ecosystem protection and biodiversity preservation. Banff, Waterton Lakes and Wood Buffalo National Parks in Alberta, and Kootenay National Park in British Columbia (four of the fourteen parks established before 1930, the year the National Parks Act was passed) have been chosen for this study in order to understand how national parks have dealt with local communities since the beginning of the national park movement, and how these relationships have changed during the last forty years. Inclusion of local communities and collaborative management processes have been well developed in northern Canadian parks since the mid‐eighties. These practices have been considered successful in this region, but the situation is very different in the southern parks, especially those that were created before 1930. However, things have changed since Aboriginal culture and rights have been recognized in judgements rendered by the Supreme Court of Canada and by the Canadian Constitution. In the four parks chosen for this study, involvement of local communities and the development of their participation have been slow. Round tables and participation in the creation of interpretation sites and exhibits of Aboriginal history can be considered a step toward further cooperation.     

The Impact of National Park Development on Tortuguero,Costa Rica

This study explores the relationship between Tortuguero National Park and Tortuguero, a neighboring village in northeastern Costa Rica. Based largely on a household survey, the study considers the effect of the establishment of the park on the subsistence and commercial economies of Tortuguero. It also considers the impact of park-based tourism and its potential role in the economic development of the community. Survey results indicate a general decline in the village's standard of living in the decade since the park was created, but an increase in nature tourism has somewhat offset the decline in commercial resource exploitation. Increased participation by villagers in park-based tourism appears to offer hope for sustainable economic development.     

符号学视角下的旅游体验研究——西溪湿地的个案分析

本文以西溪湿地为例,将符号的解读和建构问题纳入到旅游体验中进行考察。在文献分析和实地调研的基础上,通过分层聚类、交互分析等方法,对西溪旅游者体验动机的符号感知、体验过程的符号解读以及体验质量的符号要素构建进行了实证分析。结果表明,休闲浪漫是旅游者对西溪的基本符号感知,不同符号类型旅游者人口社会属性和旅游行为存在结构差异,体验的质量也不尽相同;结合体验效果的符号要素相关性解读,不仅为研究旅游体验的本质提供了新的符号学理论视野,也为丰富和强化旅游体验提供了有效的操作途径。     

Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions

Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.     

What's in a Name? Extracting Econometric Drivers to Assess The Impact of National Park Designation*

Public land designations are often primarily political decisions that may also have substantial local economic impacts. This paper econometrically estimates the visitation effect of the conversion of National Monuments to National Parks through the eight designation changes that have occurred between 1979 and 2000. The study finds robust and significant impacts of such conversions, yielding 11,642 additional visitors annually, even after controlling for likely site acreage expansion and other site visitation trends. Furthermore, these new visitors do not appear to occur at the expense of visitation at alternative sites. Using these findings, the paper explores the local economic impact of the Great Sand Dunes conversion on Colorado's San Luis Valley.     

主题公园游客心理容量及其影响因素研究——来自深圳欢乐谷的实证

旅游容量是旅游地理学研究的核心问题之一,游客心理容量是旅游容量的重要议题。学界一般认为游客心理容量曲线呈现单调递减性,然而在实践中,主题公园游客心理容量曲线可能呈现非单调递减性。基于这一争论,本文以深圳欢乐谷为案例,采用满意度法论证主题公园游客心理容量曲线的性质,并检验其影响因素。研究发现,主题公园游客心理容量曲线呈现非单调递减性;旺季游客心理容量比平季的大,淡季游客心理容量比平季的小;青少年与成年人的游客心理容量差异不大,老年人游客心理容量比其他人群的小;女性游客心理容量比男性的小,女性的满意度比男性的更容易受到游客量增加的影响;游客心理容量与文化程度呈现逆相关关系。     

兰州黄河文化园规划构思与项目创意

黄河文化园是规划开发中的黄河兰州市区段40km风情旅游线上一座融地理、历史、民俗于一体的文化主题公园。在提出3条规划思路的基础上,本文将该园划分为"文明之光"、"地理揽胜"、"文物瑰宝"、"民俗采风"、"古街余韵"等5大景区,相应设计了若干景点和诸多观赏性、参与性和娱乐性颇强的旅游活动项目,还对该园进行了旅游形象策划,并在绿化规划方面有独到的见解和创新。     

国民休闲计划与旅游弹性消费——基于旅游应对危机的政策选择

国际金融危机对我国旅游业的冲击具有自身的阶段特性、传导路径和影响领域,在“突机破危”的特殊环境下,出现了从“大众旅游”向“国民休闲”的转变趋势,而国民休闲计划也随之成为旅游减危排危、扩大旅游弹性消费的有效途径。为此,必须充分认识国民休闲的消费约束,重点撬动四类旅游市场,扩大旅游弹性消费空间,并适时出台一系列有效的杠杆政策,以推动国民休闲计划的顺利实施。     

Thermal range of coastal tourism resort microclimates

With considerable evidence demonstrating the intrinsic importance of weather and climate for tourist decision-making, the projected redistribution of climatic resources as a result of climate change is anticipated to have important consequences for temporal and spatial patterns of tourism demand. Some of the world's leading coastal tourism destinations (Mediterranean and Caribbean) have been identified as becoming ‘too hot’ for tourism. However, the microclimates of coastal tourism areas have not been considered by such assessments. With a focus on thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters, this paper examines the adaptive range of microclimatic conditions available in two coastal resort settings in the Caribbean islands of Barbados and Tobago. Recorded weather parameters include air temperature, black globe temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The microclimatic results, which are presented using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), show that hourly thermal conditions can range up to 4 °C in different outdoor areas of the resort property (beach, garden, pool, cabana). This is salient in terms of characterizing tourism destinations for climate change assessments, as the results reveal that thermal conditions can vary at the micro-scale of a coastal resort, with the ability for tourists to attain thermally comfortable conditions within a single resort property. When a location becomes thermally uncomfortable (i.e. too hot), tourists can change their location (e.g. move from the pool to the beach), providing an onsite adaptive range between 1 °C and 4 °C. The results also demonstrate that thermo-physiologically relevant climatic parameters provide a more precise estimate of the available range of thermal comfort than is inferred from ambient temperature alone. The findings are discussed in the context of tourists’ climatic preferences and reveal that the microclimatic conditions recorded in this study (UTCI 29–36 °C) are well within tourists’ preferred thermal conditions and do not exceed tourists’ thermal thresholds for coastal tourism.     

新休假制度对我国居民出游行为的影响及旅游业应对策略

本文认为,新的休假制度将对居民出游行为产生影响：假日短线游增加,个性化、休闲化旅游成趋势,远程游将集中在假期、十一、春节、带薪年休假,而节日“小长假”将被亲情友情所“包裹”。旅游业必须转变观念,调整产品结构,提高产品质量,完善旅游服务,改进营销方式,从而应对新的休假制度。     

贫困山区旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性及影响机理

借助社会—生态系统理论与脆弱性分析框架,以恩施州为例,从敏感性与适应性两方面构建评价指标体系,对旅游地社会—生态系统脆弱性进行定量测度,运用地理探测器方法探测脆弱性分异的风险因子与影响机理.结果表明:①研究区脆弱性水平整体处于中等水平,抵御内外部风险的能力仍显不足;②村域脆弱性主要为中、低等脆弱性,各村敏感性与适应性构...     

试论中国新兴的人工旅游资源

以1958年美国兴建洛杉矶迪尼斯乐园为标帜,国际上人工旅游资源正迅速崛起。近十年来我国新兴的人工旅游资源不断涌现,主要有:(1)微缩景观公园;(2)影视拍摄基地;(3)游乐园及野生动物园;(4)仿古街及仿古园林;(5)专题博物馆与碑林;(6)旅游节日等。我国新兴的人工旅游资源在地理分布上集中在东部沿海地区,具有求知、求新、求乐、求奇的时代特征,意味着我国旅游形式从单纯的游览观光开始向游客参与和消遣型转变。一些人工旅游资源如深圳"锦绣中华"公园,无锡"唐城"、北京世界公园、哈尔滨冰灯艺术节等取得良好的社会效益和经济效益。今后对人工旅游资源的发展应保持宏观控制与正确引导。