Declining,transition and slow rural territories in southern Italy Characterizing the intra-rural divides

As metropolitan areas around the world keep expanding, behind them, rural areas continue to be affected by greater rates of depopulation. This is not a new phenomenon: rural to urban migration has been reported in the developed world at least from the period between the two world wars. However, recent rural depopulation trends have dramatically intensified in both the developed and the developing countries worldwide. In planning literature, greater emphasis is placed on the “urban–rural” divide, that is, people leaving the countryside to look for better opportunities in urban areas. However, a growing body of literature points to the fact that not all rural areas are declining at the same rate. Indeed, some rural towns have managed to retain population and even to grow. Therefore, at least in developed countries, an “intra-rural” divide notion is emerging. To exemplify this notion, we have studied rural towns in Southern Italy.     

基于城乡能量对比的城市空间扩展规律研究——以无锡市为例

城市空间不断向乡村空间的扩展本质是城乡能量在城乡过渡区相互作用的空间反映,城乡能量是指城乡要素作用在城乡过渡区的强度。本文以江苏省无锡市为案例,采用适用于复杂系统的统计能量分析方法作为定量分析工具构建能量测度模型,测度无锡市1984、1991、1997、2001和2005年5个时期城乡要素能量和综合能量,揭示出城市空间扩展主导方向并非沿着城乡过渡区中区位条件好、城市性较强地域方向延伸,而是指向城乡过渡区中乡村性明显的地域;城乡过渡区的小城镇成为城市空间扩展的重要推动力量,与中心城区一起推动城市性要素流动。     

中国城乡协调发展研究综述

通过长期关注改革开放以来中国城乡协调发展的历史与现状,本文从城乡协调发展研究起源出发,对中国城乡协调发展的内涵、目标、动力机制、模式、制约因素、措施对策进行综述,探究这些研究的贡献和研究中存在的问题,并对今后的研究趋势进行展望,试图通过这项工作为城乡协调发展研究及城乡协调发展规划打下良好的基础。     

An Evaluation of Endogenous Sustainable Development Planning for the Rural–Urban Environment in Gran Canaria

Urban developments can transform adjacent rural areas by degrading their natural resource base and environmental values. In this paper we provide evidence on the implementation of an endogenous sustainable development plan for the rural–urban environment in the city of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. The objective was the generation of endogenous development in the rural areas by implicating the local population in developing activities in line with natural values and the recuperation of traditional cultures. At the same time, urban societies were expected to benefit from the preservation and availability of these rural environments. The plan was implemented in a large rural valley located between adjacent urban areas. The valley represents an opportunity for urban dwellers to benefit from a large rural park in the urban environment for leisure and cultural activities. The overall accomplishment of the plan was evaluated and contrasted with the benefits to the urban population, which were also measured with a discrete choice experiment. The results highlight that the principal objectives failed because of the lack of political determination to promote the participatory channels that would lead to the preservation of natural resources in a dynamic process of social change.     

中国城乡协调发展空间格局与演化研究

本文从三个方面构建了城乡协调发展度指数,对中国2000-2008年31个省城乡协调发展程度的整体变化及在大区上的空间差异进行了评价和原因探讨。结果显示,中国城乡协调发展程度整体呈现上升趋势,主要原因是城乡增长率差异系数的降低,说明我国近些年的支农惠农和统筹城乡发展的政策效果显著。东部和西部地区城乡发展逐步协调,而中部和东北地区城乡发展协调度下降。东部城市和农村基本实现共同富裕,而西部是较低水平上的协调。东北地区先大幅下降后缓慢上升,中部地区的城乡协调发展度目前是最低的,变化较为复杂。     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

中德经济发达地区城乡一体化模式比较——以长江三角洲与莱茵河下游地区为例

城乡一体化是伴随着工业社会、城市化时代的一种特有的社会经济现象,是人类社会生产力高度发达的一个重要标志,尤其在经济发达地区这种现象更加明显。中德两国有着不同的城市化发展过程和不同的时代背景,在工业化与经济发达区域内,城市化道路及其带来的城乡一体化类型、特征、模式与前景是有一定差异的。本文着重探索中国的长江三角洲与德国的莱茵-鲁尔地区的城乡一体化模式,从不同的视角、层面进行比较研究,试图从两国不同的地区比较得到有益的启示。     

乡村振兴视域下的小农户振兴解析

小农户是乡村振兴最重要的利益与价值主体,也是乡村地域系统结构—功能及形态建构主体。小农户振兴,即为适应当前乡村地域系统乃至城乡地域系统社会经济形态、地域结构—功能重构,通过对影响农户生计转型发展的内部要素和外缘要素的调控管理,实现小农户生计转型升级及其与乡村地域系统、城乡地域系统结构—功能演化融合协同发展的过程。文章基于小农户概念内涵,分析了小农户振兴与乡村振兴的耦合关系、小农户振兴与城乡地域系统演化发展的联结关系,提出应根据地域差异,在明晰小农户生计转型发展和城乡地域系统类型、要素组成、结构—功能、发展特征与模式的前提下,按“村域—乡村地域系统—城乡地域系统”不同尺度分区分类实施小农户振兴。重点关注小农户振兴与乡村地域系统结构—功能、乡村产业体系、乡村社会功能再组织化及乡村生态环境提质的耦合协同,加强小农户振兴与乡村资源管理、小农户振兴地域类型与特征、小农户振兴规划与政策、小农户振兴路径与模式等方面研究。     

Mortality differentials between rural and urban areas of states in the Northeastern United States 1890-1900.

Data from a number of countries show much higher mortality rates in urban than in rural areas in the nineteenth century. In this paper we examine the urban-rural mortality differential in the death registration states of the United States in 1890 and 1900. Before proceeding with the analysis, the data are evaluated and we determine that the data used for the 1900 analysis are more complete than data used in other analyses for the same date. An attempt is made to correct for the deficiencies in the 1890 data. When the urban and rural mortality levels are examined for individual states at both dates, urban mortality is generally higher than rural mortality. However, there is variability across states in urban mortality levels, rural mortality levels, and the urban-rural mortality differences. In general, the urban-rural mortality difference is larger in 1890 than in 1900. When the urban-rural mortality differences are examined in terms of the causes of death which account for the differential, we conclude that higher urban mortality rates are generally attributable to a few diseases—tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases and several other communicable diseases—the transmission of which depend heavily on close human contact or contamination of the environment.     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

江苏省城乡公共服务发展差距及其障碍因素分析

以江苏省13个省辖市为研究样本,通过构建评价教育、卫生、环境和基础设施等公共服务指标体系,运用熵值法、协调度模型和障碍度模型等方法,对江苏各省辖市的城乡公共服务发展水平进行综合评价。结果表明:①城乡公共服务发展水平区域分异明显;②不同类型公共服务发展水平城乡差距各不相同,基础教育服务城乡差距明显,医疗卫生服务乡村远落后于城市,生态环境服务城乡差距相对较小,基础设施服务城乡差距位居中等;③城乡公共服务协调发展水平可以划分为四种类型,城乡基础教育和医疗卫生等服务领域发展水平差距是影响多数省辖市城乡公共服务协调发展的最大障碍因素。     

我国城乡关系的定量研究——基于城乡投入产出表的视角

城乡关系是地理学研究的重要议题。本文运用城乡投入产出模型,构建了"乡村支持城镇、城镇反哺乡村"的定量模型,分析了我国1987-2012年间城乡间的经济联系。结果发现,从经济联系角度看,虽然城镇对乡村的反哺作用有了较大的提升,但总体上我国城乡关系仍处于乡村支持城镇阶段。乡村对其他服务业（如教育、医疗）的消费是导致乡村支持城镇的主要来源,且其作用有增大趋势。而城镇对农业的消费、对建筑业的投资以及纺织服装业的出口是城镇反哺乡村最主要的经济活动。因此,减轻乡村居民在其他服务业领域的支出负担,刺激城镇居民对乡村农产品的消费,保持建筑业投资力度,扩大纺织服装行业的出口水平有利于提升我国城镇反哺乡村的水平。     

走向知识经济时代的新型城乡关系

21世纪,知识、技术的竞相发展,使社会范式发生转变,从而使整个人类社会走向知识经济时代。在知识社会中,封闭、地区性社会向开放、全球性社会递进,城乡间公平享受社会公共资源。城市与乡村加速发展,城乡关系由传统的对立、两极化向新的协调、一体化发展,市场型城乡关系形成。本文在分析中国城乡关系演变历史的基础上,指出经济关系是城乡关系的主体,城乡社会关系趋于复杂化,城乡生态环境日益形成一个利益共同体,城乡政治关系民主化。     

Faith no more? The divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe

Events such as Brexit and the Gilet Jaunes protests have highlighted the spatial nature of populism. In particular, there has been increasing political divergence between urban and rural areas, with rural areas apparently having lost faith in national governments. We investigate this divergence using data on over 125,000 EU citizens from the European Social Survey from 2008 to 2018. We show that people in rural areas have lower political trust than urban or peri-urban residents, with this difference clear for six different forms of political institutions, including politicians, political parties, and national parliaments. There has been divergence of political trust between urban and rural Europe since 2008, although this is primarily driven by Southern Europe. While these results can partly be explained by demographic differences between cities and the countryside, divergent economic experiences, differences in values, and perceptions that public services are less effective outside of urban areas, there is a residual ‘rural effect’ beyond this. We argue that the polarisation of urban-rural political trust has important implications for the functioning of European democracies.     

The Urbanization Process with Moving Boundary

The paper proposes a dynamic model of urbanization in the regional system consisting of the central business district (CBD), the urban, and the rural areas. Processes of “eating up” the rural land by the residents and firms in the urban area are endogenously determined. Spatial and temporal land prices of the urban and rural areas are described by partial differential equations. The boundary between the urban and rural areas is temporarily moved by “eating-up” forces of the urban area. Movement of the boundary is determined by interactions between the urban and rural areas near the boundary. The model consists of three partial differential equations under appropriate boundary and initial conditions. It describes how the actual regional pattern is disturbed far away from the equilibrium by inflationary forces. An analytic solution of the fixed rural land price is given.     

无锡市城乡系统耦合测度与耦合度变化规律研究

经济发达地区大城市城乡系统耦合程度随着国家经济社会转型而不断变化,测度城乡系统耦合(以耦合度表示)旨在揭示不同时期城乡相互作用和影响程度,从而为进一步调控城乡互动关系提供科学依据。本文以无锡市为案例,以系统科学理论为基础,构建城乡系统耦合测度模型,对无锡市1979至2008年8个时期的城乡系统耦合程度进行测度,并分析耦合度变化原因和规律。结果表明:无锡市城乡系统耦合度变化过程明显分为三个阶段,呈现拉平"S"型。在1990s初期以前耦合度较低,反映城乡系统较为独立发展;1990s初期以后耦合度快速提高,城乡互动关系加强;进入21世纪耦合度缓慢上升趋于停滞,城市系统在持续加速发展的同时,乡村系统发展趋缓并呈下降趋势。伴随乡村系统发展速度的下降,城乡系统潜伏着二者不协调的危机,为保证其可持续发展,国家公共政策需要加强对乡村发展的扶持和引导,以促进城乡系统良性互动。     

宁夏县域经济发展的演变类型与城乡耦合协调发展分析

研究旨在对宁夏县域经济类型进行划分,揭示不同县域经济演变与转型过程中的城乡耦合协调发展的特征与规律。①宁夏县域经济演变与转型呈现出工业主导型与商贸与综合发展型两种类型;②工业主导型的城镇化发展指数和乡村发展指数都比商贸与综合发展型县域高,但差距在缩小;③除2000、2005年外,工业主导型县域均处于城乡发展较不协调状态,而商业与综合发展型县域则处于较协调状况。宁夏县域经济发展应该更关注三次产业的融合、鼓励劳动密集性产业的发展,增强县城公共服务能力,提升人口集聚与就业转移的能力。     

The Impact of Childhood Migration on Educational Attainment: Evidence from rural–urban migrants in Indonesia

This paper estimates the effect of migrating permanently as a child from a rural area to an urban area; focusing on long-term educational attainment in Indonesia. We conduct a household survey specifically tailored to collect data on urban–rural migrants in four major migrant destination cities in Indonesia, and merge the data with a nationally representative survey to create a dataset that contains migrants in urban areas and non-migrants in rural areas who were born in the same rural districts. We find that individuals who migrated to the city as children attained three more years of education, compared to observably similar individuals who remained in rural areas. We find no gender differences in the benefit of childhood migration. Finally, age at migration and the size of network in the city do not significantly affect the educational attainment of childhood migrants.     

The changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector in metropolitan and rural regions, 1976–1997

This paper documents the changing geography of the Canadian manufacturing sector over a 22‐year period (1976–1997). It does so by looking at the shifts in employment and differences in production worker wages across different levels of the rural/urban hierarchy—central cities, adjacent suburbs, medium and small cities and rural areas. The analysis demonstrates that the most dramatic shifts in manufacturing employment were from the central cities of large metropolitan regions to their suburbs. Paralleling trends in the United States, rural regions of Canada have increased their share of manufacturing employment. Rising rural employment shares were due to declining employment shares of small cities and, to a lesser degree, large urban regions. Increasing rural employment was particularly prominent in Quebec, where employment shifted away from the Montreal region. The changing fortunes of rural and urban areas were not the result of across‐the‐board shifts in manufacturing employment, but were the net outcome of differing locational patterns across industries. In contrast to the situation in the United States, wages in Canada do not consistently decline, moving down the rural/urban hierarchy from the largest cities to the most rural parts of the country. Only after controlling for the types of manufacturing industries found in rural and urban regions is it apparent that wages decline with the size of place .     

Measurement of Urban Fringe Sprawl in Nanjing between 1984 and 2010 Using Multidimensional Indicators

Due to the global increases in urbanisation rates, urban sprawl has become a worldwide issue. In China, the development of rural areas has been affected by urban expansion and adjustments of metropolitan areas by administrative divisions that have led to losses in agricultural lands and ecosystem services. There is the ‘paradoxical’ desire for governments to promote rural development and protect land resources. Urban fringe sprawl is a prominent issue in the process of rural development. Identifying and measuring sprawl at the urban fringe could assist policymakers to either encourage or discourage this phenomenon. This paper demonstrates use of multidimensional indicators to effectively measure urban fringe sprawl by remote sensing, in addition to demographic and socio‐economic data. Using integrated indicators observed in the recent Chinese development context, urban fringe sprawl was measured comprehensively for Jiangning, a district in the city of Nanjing, China. This study indicates that Jiangning is sprawling rapidly. The results also show that the multidimensional indicator approach could provide decision support to create effective long‐term land‐use planning policies for controlling urban sprawl patterns.