Seeing into hearts and minds: Part 2. ‘Big data’, algorithms,and computational counterinsurgency

In this second of his two‐part article, the author analyzes the rise of ‘predictive policing’ and its Pentagon connections, reviews two programmes, and poses these in the context of scientists' concerns over artificial intelligence and long‐term human survival.     

WHY A KILN? FIRING TECHNOLOGY IN THE SIERRA DE LOS TUXTLAS,VERACRUZ (MEXICO)*

The benefits of one ceramic firing technology over another are not absolute, but depend upon the interaction of multiple environmental, economic and social factors, as well as the specific design of firing facilities. The coexistence of updraft kilns and open firing methods in the Sierra de los Tuxtlas, Veracruz, Mexico, for over 1700 years provides a case‐in‐point. Evaluation of the performance characteristics of ancient and modern firing technologies in relation to their natural and behavioural contexts offers a more secure basis for understanding this specific historical instance of long‐term polymorphism than explanations based in the generalized technological advantages of kilns or their cross‐cultural association with intensive modes of production.     

Conditional Cash Transfers and Social Mobility: The Role of Asymmetric Structures and Segmentation Processes

This article seeks to advance existing research on conditional cash transfers (CCTs) by centring the analysis of their long‐term impact on the reproduction of poverty and exclusion. To date, most analyses and assessments of CCTs’ long‐term impact have been based on simulations focused on specific parameters such as income changes and educational attainment. This study takes as its starting point the assumption that any efforts to break the cycle of chronic poverty and exclusion must address their underlying structures and processes. To that end, it presents a social mobility analysis of Uruguay's Asignaciones Familiares and its impact on residential segregation, educational segmentation and labour market segmentation. Based on empirical data from qualitative interviews, household surveys and existing research studies, the programme is found to insufficiently address these asymmetric processes. Without accompanying structural reforms, this limitation will significantly constrain the programme's capacities to promote beneficiaries’ social mobility by breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty.     

Women and Money: Lessons from Senegal

This article examines the complexity and diversity of women's informal financial practices using data from surveys conducted in Senegal. It suggests that these practices are at the centre of a constant dialectic between short‐term and long‐term horizons, between the requirements of daily survival and the demands of community solidarity, and between personal aspirations and collective constraints. These practices also clearly illustrate a desire among the women in Senegal to impose a form of financial self‐discipline, and to create situations that will oblige them to earn income. The socio‐economic diversity among these entrepreneurs is also underscored. Informal financial arrangements are both a product and producer of gender inequalities and inequalities among women, as reflected in the research. This has direct policy implications, especially for microfinance products. If they are to be effective, microfinance services must develop beyond a standard, one‐size fits all model and become more innovative and adaptable to the diverse demands of women. They must be combined with complementary measures that challenge the systemic causes of inequality. Microfinance programmes should draw on informal financial arrangements while challenging their tendency to perpetuate inequality.     

Defining the OE hearg: a preliminary archaeological and topographic examination of hearg place names and their hinterlands

The OE term hearg is interpreted variously as ‘pagan temple’, ‘hilltop sanctuary’ and even ‘idol’. It is a rare survival in the English place‐name record. When it can be identified, the place name is commonly considered to refer to a location of pre‐Christian religious activity, specifically a pagan Anglo‐Saxon temple. Taking inspiration from the extensive and methodologically well‐advanced studies in Scandinavia, which have successfully related place‐name evidence for cultic and religious sites with the archaeology and topography of these localities, this paper adopts and uses a similar methodology to investigate the archaeological and topographic character of a selection of hearg locations. The traditional interpretations of the place name are questioned and evidence is presented that these sites are characterized by long‐lived, localized cult practice spanning the late prehistoric to early historic periods, but with activity reaching a zenith in the late Iron Age to Romano‐British eras, rather than the fifth to seventh centuries AD.     

The Financialisation of Rental Housing 2.0: Releasing Housing into the Privatised Mainstream of Capital Accumulation

This article presents two cases of listed real estate companies that operate in the Ruhr metropolitan region of Germany. The first is Immeo Wohnen, a subsidiary of the French real estate investment trust (REIT) Foncière des Régions that was previously owned by a US hedge fund. The second is Vonovia, Germany's largest real estate company, originally a subsidiary of a British private equity firm. Both examples embody what we call the shift from financialisation 1.0 to financialisation 2.0, i.e. the transition from pure speculation to long‐term investment. We show that long‐term investment strategies are used by REITs and listed funds in order to release housing into the privatised mainstream of capital accumulation. With the advent of the financialisation of rental housing 2.0, the long‐term investment focus of these funds paradoxically enables a short‐term investment focus by buying and selling shares in these funds on the stock exchange.     

NORBERT ELIAS,THE CIVILIZING PROCESS: SOCIOGENETIC AND PSYCHOGENETIC INVESTIGATIONS—AN OVERVIEW AND ASSESSMENT

Norbert Elias's The Civilizing Process, which was published in German in 1939 and first translated into English in two volumes in 1978 and 1982, is now widely regarded as one of the great works of twentieth‐century sociology. This work attempted to explain how Europeans came to think of themselves as more “civilized” than their forebears and neighboring societies. By analyzing books about manners that had been published between the thirteenth and eighteenth centuries, Elias observed changing conceptions of shame and embarrassment with respect to, among other things, bodily propriety and violence. To explain those developments, Elias examined the interplay among the rise of state monopolies of power, increasing levels of economic interconnectedness among people, and pressures to become attuned to others over greater distances that led to advances in identifying with others in the same society irrespective of social origins. Elias's analysis of the civilizing process was not confined, however, to explaining changing social bonds within separate societies. The investigation also focused on the division of Europe into sovereign states that were embroiled in struggles for power and security. This article provides an overview and analysis of Elias's principal claims in the light of growing interest in this seminal work in sociology. The analysis shows how Elias defended higher levels of synthesis in the social sciences to explain relations between “domestic” and “international” developments, and changes in social structure and in the emotional lives of modern people. Elias's investigation, which explained long‐term processes of development over several centuries, pointed to the limitations of inquiries that concentrate on short‐term intervals. Only by placing short‐term trends in long‐term perspective could sociologists understand contemporary developments. This article maintains that Elias's analysis of the civilizing process remains an exemplary study of long‐term developments in Western societies over the last five centuries.     

Basin‐Wide Sediment Grain‐Size Numerical Analysis and Paleo‐Climate Interpretation in the Shiyang River Drainage Basin

Basin‐wide sediment transport affects estimates of basin sediment yield, which is a fundamental scientific issue in drainage basin studies. Many studies have been conducted to examine erosion and deposition rates in drainage networks. In this study, we proposed a new approach using grain‐size standard deviation model of sedimentary samples from different geomorphological units for numerical analysis and paleo‐climate interpretation in the Shiyang River drainage basin, arid China. 1043 sedimentary samples were obtained from the upper reaches, the midstream alluvial plain and the terminal lake area; chronological frames were established based on 58 radiocarbon ages. Grain‐size standard deviation model was introduced to examine sediment components according to grain‐size and transport forces. In addition, transient paleo‐climate simulations, including the Community Climate System Model version 3 and the Kiel models, were synthesized, as well as the results from PMIP 3.0 project, to detect the long‐term climate backgrounds. Totally, we found four major common components, including fine particulates (<2 μm), fine silt (2–20 μm), sandy silt (20–200 μm), coarse sand (>200 μm), from basin‐wide sedimentary samples. The fine particulates and fine silt components exist in all the sedimentary facies, showing long‐term airborne aerosol changes and its transport by suspended load. There are some differences in ranges of sandy silt and coarse sand components, due to lake and river hydrodynamics, as well as the distance with the Gobi Desert. Paleo‐climate simulations have shown that the strong Asian summer monsoon during the transition of the Last Deglaciation and Holocene was conducive to erosion and transport of basin‐wide suspended load, also enhancing sediment sorting effects due to strong lake hydrodynamics. Our findings provide a new approach in research of long‐term basin‐wide sediment transport processes.     

Social Relations and War Remembrance: Second World War Atrocities in Rural Tuscan Villages

This article addresses the issue of how long‐term memory of extreme conditions is socially transformed. It focuses on elements of the social structure and pre‐war habitus that might help understanding of the divided memory of massacres that were perpetrated by the Nazis in three rural Tuscan villages between 1943 and 1944. Within the “mnemonic communities”, discrepancies arise since some of the villagers paradoxically blame the partisans instead of the Nazis. An attempt is made to trace current representations of historical events in the framework of traditional social institutions and political life of these small villages in time of crisis. Battles over memory are seen as a twofold process—that is, as part of “internal”, intra‐village relations as well as a form of reaction toward the “external” world of which they feel victims. The article argues that long‐term memory of past political violence is strictly bound up with local power relations.     

The Tortoise or the Hare? Incrementalism,Punctuations, and Their Consequences

In this article, we contrast the long‐term consequences of incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium. We test what the impact of each of these types of policy change is on long‐term budgetary outcomes for the American states. Policy scholars have applied both theoretical approaches to the study of budgetary spending as an extension of policymaking. Given the two contrasting paradigms of policy change, we develop the following line of inquiry: Does punctuated equilibrium create a different budget in the long term than incrementalism? We address this question through an analysis of American state budgets because the U.S. states provide a rich variation in both budgetary outcomes and political institutions. We use budget data from all American states across all government functions for the period between 1984 and 2009. We find that, first, state budgets and budget functions vary in their degree of punctuation and, second, the degree of punctuation in a state's budget function corresponds to smaller long‐term growth. Additionally, the kind of spending matters: allocational budget categories are more likely to exhibit punctuations.     

The effectiveness of public participation in the environmental impact assessment process – a case study of the projected Sierilä hydropower station at Oikarainen,northern Finland

One of the most difficult challenges in environmental impact assessment (EIA) is the effectiveness of public participation. This article addresses this question by looking at evaluation criteria applied during the EIA process for a northern Finnish hydropower project. The problematics of public participation is discussed in connection with the EIA process and social impact assessment for the projected Sierilä hydropower station in the village of Oikarainen, near Rovaniemi, in northern Finland, during which the local population has been viewed as not being sufficiently competent as the project developer, Kemijoki Ltd. Nevertheless, carrying out an EIA seems to be a starting point in the long‐term process of increasing the effectiveness of public participation and the influence of local communities on hydropower planning processes in Finland.     

Polarization and the growth of low‐skill service jobs in Spanish local labor markets

This paper analyzes the long‐term transformations of the occupational structure in 50 provinces of Spain with a view to ascertain the existence and assess the extent of employment polarization. The peculiar characteristics of this country, namely rigid labor markets and the relatively recent transition to democracy, make for an interesting addition to existing studies on this topic. In line with previous literature on other countries, we find a strong association between the decline of “routine” mid‐skill jobs and the expansion of low‐skill service employment as well as differential labor market outcomes by levels of formal education. Results are robust to various controls and instrumental variables that account for long‐term industry specialization. We also find a positive local multiplier effect of high‐skilled workers on the demand for nontradable service jobs.     

Does time heal all wounds? Restoring place attachment in Halifax's Point Pleasant Park after Hurricane Juan

On September 29, 2003, Hurricane Juan profoundly altered Halifax's Point Pleasant Park, resulting in feelings of solastalgia (the distress caused by perceived negative changes to a beloved place) as park users mourned the loss of a place that held great significance for the city. Starting in 2008, over 100,000 trees have been planted in order to restore the original Acadian mixed forest to this landscape. Drawing on scholarly literature focused on place attachment and disaster recovery, this paper utilizes interviews (n = 11) and online surveys (n = 79) to determine whether long‐term park users have re‐established positive place attachments in conjunction with the park's restoration. Our results indicate that participants have largely overcome their solastalgic outlook and restored meaningful place attachments to the park. Unexpectedly, our results also suggest that long‐term participants have current place attachments that appear stronger than the place attachments expressed by participating short‐term users, who never experienced the traumatic impact of Hurricane Juan on Point Pleasant Park.     

First large‐scale provenance study of pigments reveals new complex behavioural patterns during the Upper Palaeolithic of south‐western Germany

The use of red iron‐based earth pigments, or ochre, is a key component of early symbolic behaviours for anatomically modern humans and possibly Neanderthals. We present the first ochre provenance study in Central Europe showing long‐term selection strategies by inhabitants of cave sites in south‐western Germany during the Upper Palaeolithic (43–14.5 ka). Ochre artefacts from Hohle Fels, Geißenklösterle and Vogelherd, and local and extra‐local sources, were investigated using neutron activation analysis (NAA), X‐ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The results show that local ochre sources were continuously and systematically accessed for c.29 500 years, with periodic events of long‐distance (about > 300 km) ochre acquisition during the Aurignacian (c.35–43 ka), suggesting higher mobility than previously suspected. The results reveal previously unknown long‐term, complex spatio‐temporal behavioural patterns during the earliest presence of Homo sapiens in Europe.     

Palestinian Water: Resources,Use, Conservation,Climate Change,and Land Use

This article addresses the future of freshwater resources in the Palestinian West Bank through a discussion of contemporary issues that each plays a vital role in determining the long‐term sustainability of freshwater reserves, such as water resource availability, trans‐boundary water issues, water reuse and conservation, changes in land use, and the potential impact of climate change on long‐term water management. Climate change and changing land use patterns are already altering this region's water resources. Future predictions regarding the long‐term effects of these changes are complex and therefore inherently uncertain. However, the consensus among most studies on this subject indicates that currently water‐poor regions such as the Middle East will experience even greater water stress in the future. Nearly all of the freshwater consumed in the West Bank is obtained from local groundwater supplies that are suffering overdraft as well as decreasing water quality. Climate change will exacerbate water stress by increasing overall temperatures, decreasing and fluctuating precipitation, and reducing overall aquifer replenishment. Expanding urbanization will continue to strain freshwater supplies by negatively impacting the quality and quantity of available freshwater. Water management in the West Bank is further complicated by total Israeli control over water resources, which often causes water delivery to Palestinians in this region to be marginalized. This article finds that Palestinian and Israeli water managers must plan for future water crises, which will likely be a result of the combined effects of increasing urbanization and climate change coupled with exponential population growth.     

British national interest in the Gulf: rediscovering a role?

The British government is in the process of re‐energizing its relations with the Gulf states. A new Gulf strategy involving a range of activities including more frequent elite bilateral visits and proposals sometimes touted as Britain's military ‘return to east of Suez’ are two key elements of the overarching strategy. Such polices are designed to fall in line with British national interest as identified by the government‐authored 2010 National Security Strategy (NSS), which emphasizes the importance of security, trade, and promoting and expanding British values and influence as perennial British raisons d'etat. In the short term, the Gulf initiatives reflect and compliment these core interests, partly based on Britain's historical role in the region, but mostly thanks to modern day trade interdependencies and mutually beneficial security‐based cooperation. However, there is yet to emerge a coherent understanding of Britain's longer‐term national interest in the region. Instead, government‐led, party‐political priorities, at the expense of thorough apolitical analysis of long‐term interests, appear to be unduly influential on the origins of both the Gulf proposals and the NSS conclusions themselves. Without a clear strategic, neutral grounding, both the Gulf prioritization and the NSS itself are weakened and their longevity undermined.     

Seeing into hearts and minds: Part 1. The Pentagon's quest for a ‘social radar’ (Respond to this article at https://www.therai.org.uk/publications/anthropology-today/debate)

In this two‐part article, explored are the many funded programmes by which security agencies and private companies mine ‘big data’ and attempt to measure the sociocultural and psychological states of whole populations. How is failure or success measured? What kinds of new institutions/practices might these give rise to? Part 1 ‘The Pentagon's quest for a “social radar”’, published in this issue, comes to terms with today's many sociocultural modelling and forecasting efforts, looks in detail at one company in particular, and ends up reviewing the role of anthropologists in their development and critique. Part 2 ‘“Big data”, algorithms, and computational counterinsurgency’, to be published in a future issue, will analyze the rise of ‘predictive policing’ and its Pentagon connections, reviews two programmes, and poses these in the context of scientists' concerns over artificial intelligence and long‐term human survival.     

Cultural Tourism: Marketing Challenges and Opportunities for German Cultural Heritage

Because of the generally precarious state of public finance in Germany, at federal, state and community levels, expenditure for cultural purposes is being reduced constantly. Therefore, cultural institutions such as heritage sites are virtually compelled to find additional sources of funding to improve their financial situation and ensure their long‐term survival. One of the more suitable means of increasing the revenue situation on an ongoing basis is to improve and expand the cultural tourism offerings. Despite this significance of cultural tourism, an empirical study established that German heritage sites have by no means exploited the real potential of cultural tourism in a comprehensive manner. Thus, the objective of this paper is, on the basis of a well‐founded delineation of the concept and demand‐side situation, to demonstrate the potential success factors for developing cultural tourism and to do so from a marketing perspective.     

LEGACIES OF CHANGE: THE SHAPING OF CULTURAL LANDSCAPES IN A MARGINAL MEDITERRANEAN MOUNTAIN RANGE,THE GARRAF MASSIF,NORTH‐EASTERN SPAIN

Human conceptions of landscape have influenced the shaping of landscapes as much as landscape configurations have modelled human perceptions. In this article a new theoretical approach to long‐term cumulative landscape change is tested on the Garraf Massif (Baix Llobregat, north‐eastern Spain). Thanks to its ancient occupation, physical character and location near to the city of Barcelona, the area provides a good illustration of how human‐induced landscape change has shaped new, and sometimes conflicting, landscape perceptions. These perceptions then play an equally active role in altering the previously ‘inherited landscape’ in a long‐term cyclical process that can be studied through the combined use of historical, palaeoenvironmental and archaeological records.     

Ageing in remote and cyclone‐prone communities: geography,policy, and disaster relief

Focusing on the experience of independent‐living older adults, this study explored how those in regional Australian coastal communities have coped with repeated natural disasters. Using an exploratory, mixed‐method, and phenomenological approach, an array of non‐probability snowballing techniques was used to seek participation from residents aged 65 years or more, and from emergency services officers, disaster managers, and community health care providers located in regional communities affected by Cyclone Larry (2006) and Cyclone Yasi (2011). The research found that post‐disaster political decisions have had a negative long‐term impact on local economies, causing outmigration by those seeking employment, and resulting in many elderly residents facing a future without family support. As government policies encourage ageing‐in‐place by providing subsidised in situ care, increasingly older adults are remaining in exposed vulnerable locations, reliant on authorities for their survival both day‐to‐day and during an emergency. Findings also uncovered inconsistent disaster management policies between neighbouring local government councils and an unrealistic reliance on in situ care organisations by disaster managers during preparation and recovery stages of a natural hazard. These results highlight the need for those charged with emergency management to reassess both the future natural hazard adaptive capacities of ageing regional communities and policy responses to such challenges.