论中国东北地缘关系及因应对策

本文以历史、现状、未来的视角对中国东北及东北亚地区地缘关系的发展变化进行了总结和趋势判断。在此基础上,提出了因应对策,即:在地缘政治方面与俄罗斯合作,防御日美联合及其构建地区性防御体系;在地缘经济方面与日韩合作,促进东北亚经济的共同发展;在具体策略方面,推进对国内和对国外两个开放,以开放促开发,促进区际联系和国际合作,用地缘经济促进地缘政治的良性发展,为东北区快速发展营造良好的外部条件。     

国际关系的变化趋势与地缘关系理论的变革

国际关系的发展趋势将以经济为主题、以和平合作为主调。相应的地缘关系理论也应作如下调整:从"争夺霸权"向"寻求合作"的目标转换、从地缘政治向地缘经济的主题转换、从地理位置向科技人才的解释因子转换、从欧洲中心论向全球一体化的空间转换。     

云南保山通向南亚地缘经济战略探析与对策

保山发展通向南亚地缘经济有着天然的地缘因素优势,古代的丝丝绸之路,近代的滇缅公路,现在中国与东盟自由贸易区的建立、南亚各国关系的改善,能源通道"马六甲困境",大大促进保山与南亚的经济贸易往来。同时,保山与南亚被高山、大河阻隔,缅甸北部的不稳定局势及中印关系的改善是一个逐步的过程,则成为制约保山发展通向南亚地缘经济的制约性因素。加强与南亚农业领域、经济贸易、旅游文化产业等合作及建设中印石油大通道是保山通向南亚地缘经济的战略性举措。     

浅析基布兹产生的历史背景

以色列,这个有着四千年历史、两千年流亡史、一百年复国主义史和五十年建设史的犹太国家从建国到现在,历经五次中东战争,缺乏和平的周边环境;同时,国内资源短缺,水资源不充裕,有近一半的国土面积为沙漠或半沙漠地区。然而,就是在这种困境中,以色列经济取得了飞速发展：1990—1995年间,以色列国内生产总值增长率在西方国家(经济合作与开发组织)中达到最高水平,这几年平均达到6％。     

昆明对周边城市外联经济量与地缘经济关系匹配研究

由于昆明市特殊的地理位置,对其与周边城市经济关联研究具有独特的意义。本文应用修正后的外联经济量与地缘经济关系模型,对昆明与国内外周边主要城市之间的经济进行匹配分析,划分出"经济联系-地缘经济关系"类型。结果表明,该市与曲靖、玉溪等滇中城市为强联系;从地缘经济关系上看,昆明与其他城市的明显互补型和竞争型关系存在较多的不确定性;对东南亚国家来说,和泰国、越南的联系强度大于老挝和缅甸。因此,依据匹配关系,昆明市经济发展应充分利用本地优势资源和未来巨大的可塑的城市合作空间,加强区域沟通,助力我国全方位开放新格局的形成。     

东北亚地缘政治关系及区域经济合作前景

本文从分析东北亚地缘政治的历史演变入手,着重探讨了当今东北亚地区政治经济形势的特点,并对区域经济合作的前景作了简要的分析。     

滇越贸易对云南经济增长的贡献分析

经济全球化趋势促使地缘经济地位上升。云南与越南山水相连,具有开展边境贸易的得天独厚的地缘条件。进入90年代以来,滇越边境贸易迅速发展,规模不断扩大,边境贸易在两国经贸活动中的地位越来越重要,极大地推动了边境地区经济社会的发展。本文在分析滇越贸易现状的基础上,应用统计学的方法,对滇越贸易对云南经济发展的贡献做定量分析。为加强滇越经济合作,加快国际经济资源的开发与移动,促进双边区域经济和社会发展提供必要的决策依据。     

中国与环南海国家(地区)贸易竞争性和互补性格局

环南海因其重要的地缘战略意义,对中国国家安全和对外合作发展具有重要意义.本文在产品层次,揭示了中国与环南海国家(地区)的贸易竞争性和互补性格局,有助于加深理解中国与该区域的地缘经济竞合关系.结果表明:①中国大陆与环南海国家(地区)的贸易规模不断增大.中国大陆与香港、台湾、越南、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国的出口相似度较高,在世...     

20世纪伊朗与以色列关系评析

本文认为,巴列维时期伊朗与以色列结成“外围联盟”,共同应对苏联的威胁和激进阿拉伯国家的挑战。伊朗伊斯兰教革命后,尽管霍梅尼从意识形态出发强烈反对以色列,但因各自国家安全利益的需要,两伊战争期间伊以仍然保持着秘密武器交易。随着冷战后苏联的解体和伊拉克在海湾战争中被削弱,共同的敌人消失了,伊以为争夺在中东地缘政治中的优势地位展开了激烈竞争甚至对抗,伊朗以反对中东和平进程和支持阿拉伯激进组织来对付以色列;而以色列则竭力把伊朗排除在中东和平进程之外,大力渲染伊朗伊斯兰原教旨主义和伊核计划对中东稳定及世界和平的威胁,以引起美国等西方国家对伊朗的关注、制裁,甚至军事打击,保持以色列在中东的强国地位。     

小岛国与内陆国的地缘特征

本文从自然、经济、文化、政治诸方面综合论述了人口不足百万的小岛国和发展中内陆国的地缘特征,由此强调应当重视地缘政治因素的研究,试探地缘政治这一敏感的领域。     

Mission Impossible: UN Special Representative Gunnar Jarring and His Quest for Peace in the Middle East

On 23 November 1967, Gunnar Jarring, a Swedish diplomat, was appointed the United Nations Special Representative to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The Security Council had decided to launch a peace effort in the Middle East following the Six-Day War in June 1967. Israel had won a sweeping victory, and the Arab states had suffered a devastating loss. After the war, Israel controlled a territory almost three and a half times the size of the country itself. But what should be done with these newly conquered territories? Should Israel be allowed to keep them? Over the course of some three and a quarter years, Jarring shuttled between the representatives from the three countries involved in the peace endeavour: Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. (Syria refused to participate.) Despite his arduous efforts, he failed miserably to produce viable progress in the Arab-Israeli conflict.     

From Idealism to Pragmatism: An Analysis of China's Policies toward the Middle East

After World War II, the Middle East stage attracted Beijing's attention. While Israel and China proved at that time to be too diverse, through the 1950s China made inroads with Arab countries. Egypt became the first to recognize the P.R.C., which, however, suffered rebuffs as anti-Communist forces generally prevailed in the Middle East. Beijing supported the people of Palestine. After the Soviet Union had become China's enemy, China tried to unite the Third World against the two superpowers. With Deng in 1978, China's Middle Eastern policy became more pragmatic, tilting toward the developed countries and economic cooperation rather than ideology (e.g., with Yemen). China enhanced relations with Gulf states; cooperated with the United States in supporting the Afghan mujahedin; and declared neutrality in the Iran-Iraq War, although economic alliance with Iran grew. The Gulf War affected Beijing's attitudes toward weapons technology and toward the United Nations and China's role in it. Israel is currently viewed as a channel for possible influence with the West. Overall, China's basic policy now is to watch and wait.     

Powerful State,Powerless Mediator: The United States and the Peace Efforts of the Palestine Conciliation Commission, 1949–51

The Arab–Israeli War of 1948 produced complex questions that needed to be solved to obtain peace. Whereas the Arab states suffered humiliating defeats, Israel was the undisputed winner, expanding and solidifying its power. For the Palestinians, the outcome was catastrophic. Between 600,000 and 760,000 Palestinians fled, becoming refugees on the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and in surrounding Arab states. Palestinian society collapsed and Palestine became divided between Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, leaving the borders undecided. The Palestinians’ dreams of statehood were crushed. After the war, Israel used diplomacy to achieve its goals, defending the post-war status quo to preserve its expanded territory and resisting the return of Palestinian refugees. Through its membership in the Palestine Conciliation Commission (PCC), established by the United Nations (UN) in 1948 to solve these problems, the United States was deeply involved in the negotiations. The United States became the informal, yet undisputed leader of the PCC, thus, it would seem, empowering it with the muscles of a superpower. After three years of struggling for peace the PCC had toadmit failure. Knowledge about these negotiations gives important insights into how mediators approached the conflict and shows that power asymmetry may explain why the belligerents could not obtain peace.     

The chance for change in the Arab world: Egypt's uprising

As the largest Arab country, Egypt has always played a crucial role in the politics of the Arab world; however, the internal political dynamics of Egypt have until the January 2011 uprising hardly attracted a glance from international observers. This article gives an overview of the political arena and the various political forces at play in post‐Mubarak Egypt. With many unpredictable variables currently at play in Egyptian politics, the result of the elections scheduled for November 2011 will likely surprise many, both within the country and beyond. The article also looks at what impact the political changes in Egypt may have had on the relationship between Egypt and Israel. There have been increasingly frequent demands within Egypt to revise the Camp David accords—but not at the expense of war with Israel. While Israel is unlikely to accept any calls to revise the peace treaty, Arab public opinion has become newly relevant for policy‐makers and Israel will have to make corresponding adjustments to its regional security strategy.     

Rentiers and Autocrats, Monarchs and Democrats, State and Society: the Middle East Between Globalization, Human 'Agency', and Europe

The key concerns in work on the politics of the Middle East in the past decade have been economic and political liberalization/democratization (or the absence thereof) and security, both domestic and international, along with a continued focus on the Arab‐Israeli conflict. There has been an increasing recognition that these issues are strongly interrelated. Europe cannot avoid concerns over economic and political stability in the region affecting its own interests. Together with economic reasons for engagement with the region, this has brought about a desire to see economic and political reform take place. The Euro‐Mediter‐ranean Partnership Initiative (EMPI) is one result of this. The background against which these policies, concerns and hopes are evolving is ‘globalization’, both of the discourse of ‘democracy’ and in the growing hold of liberal market economics internationally. Recent research on the politics and political economy of the region, and on EMPI, however, shows that a combination of political‐economic and related political‐cultural factors, along with the Arab‐Israeli conflict, continue to hamper political and economic reform in the Middle East, and that European policy as currently conceived is unlikely to affect this greatly. Yet such recent work also shows that aspects of globalization are changing the environment in which Middle Eastern regimes are having to function, while at the same time offering civil society new tools. Middle Eastern societies do, to varying extents, possess the necessary ‘spaces’ and traditions for human ‘agency’ to escape the constraints of domestic and international ‘structures’ and evolve new political cultures‐including democratic ones. Existing judicial or legislative institutions may acquire volition of their own and reinforce this process. There is nothing in ‘Islam’ that necessarily obstructs such possibilities. And supposedly ’obsolete‘ monarchies might yet be among the most successful types of regime in coping with such change.     

Infinite conditions on the road to peace: the second New Labour government’s foreign policy approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict after 9/11

This article examines how a resurgent clash of Arab and Israeli nationalisms created tensions within New Labour as the leadership sought to reconcile claims of duplicity in its Middle East policy after 9/11 while retaining party unity and an international consensus for a war in Afghanistan. It argues that as European and international pressure to prioritise Middle East peace before pursuing a war with Iraq increased, Tony Blair’s emphasis on economic progress as a prerequisite to creating a state of Palestine was expanded to determine that Palestinian national rights also be considered on the evidence of fundamental reform and modernisation across the spectrum of political, civil and cultural life. These objectives, however, were not to be achieved following the deployment of a UN peace-keeping force, but the prevailing conditions of the Israeli occupation, provisos later inscribed in the US-led goal-driven, performance-based Road Map for Peace. This focus ran in parallel with his assumed role as a transatlantic ‘bridge’, and collectively helped to transform the multilateralist template of the Quartet into a classic trilateralist negotiating model—bilateral Arab-Israel talks, unilaterally overseen by the US—enacting the further exclusion of key European partners.     

The Arab Peace Initiative: Now or Never

It has been almost a year now since President Obama set out for Cairo to deliver what has been seen as one of the largest overtures by the United States to publicly engage the Middle East. Unfortunately, despite the high hopes that this new administration garnered and the continuous efforts of high‐level American officials to put an end to the Arab–Israeli conflict, there is little fruit to bear on the ground. More often than not, the diplomatic breaches and hurdles to even get to the negotiating table have consumed the headlines, and 1 year later the multilateral relations in the region seem tepid at best. The repeated failures of the bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and Israel and Syria may be attributed to a number of factors, including a deep‐seated mistrust that has not been addressed, concerns over the long‐term security, and domestic political constraints to make the required concessions to reach an agreement. Yet while all of these elements contributed to the despondent current state of affairs, the one critical missing ingredient has been the absence of a comprehensive framework for peace representing the collective will of the Arab states. Now more than ever, the Arab Peace Initiative (API) offers the best possible chance of achieving an inclusive peace, provided that all parties to the conflict understand its significance and historic implications that have eluded all parties for more than six decades. The likelihood that the current lull in violence will continue if no progress is made on the political front is slim. If the Arab states want to show a united front, especially as the Iranian nuclear advances threaten the regional balance of power, they must finally and publically resolve to promote the API in earnest.     

Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration in the Middle East

The soft aspects of the infrastructure of regionalism in the Middle East have previously been studied, while the impact of the region’s hard infrastructure, in particular transport infrastructure, has received little attention. This paper contributes to the study of regionalism in the Middle East by investigating the relationship between hard infrastructure and economic integration. It analyzes whether the state of domestic and cross‐border transport infrastructure in the region promotes regional trade. This is done by addressing the following sub‐questions: 1) What is the condition of domestic and cross‐border transport infrastructure in the Middle East? And 2) What is the relationship between domestic and cross‐border transport infrastructure and regional trade in the Middle East? These questions are answered by examining Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey as representative samples of the broader region. It is argued that regionalism relies on the development of domestic and cross‐border transport infrastructure and where the latter is limited, regionalism cannot deepen. The study concludes that domestic and cross‐border transport infrastructure performance is weak in several of the countries studied and that this weakness hinders regional economic integration regardless of the level of the region’s soft infrastructure.     

Ideology and Realpolitik: East German Attitudes towards Zionism and Israel

Over several decades, the East German stance towards Israel was marked by condemnation of Zionism, a unilateral position on the Arab-Israeli conflict and denial of reparations and restitution claims. This position had its ideological background in the communist approach to the “Jewish question,” anti-Semitism and nationalism, while the most important criterion in shaping attitudes towards Israel was the incorporation of the German Democratic Republic's Middle East policy into the foreign policy of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. In addition, the East German political elite followed its own political interests when it tried to break through the West German Hallstein doctrine with the help of some Arab countries.     

The Determinants of Political Cleavages in Jordan,Tunisia, and Yemen: An Analysis of Political Attitudes Structure in the Arab World

This article investigates the determinants of political cleavages composing the structure of political attitudes in Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen following the Arab Spring. Further, it tests whether political cleavages carry predictive weight on ordinary citizens’ electoral choices in general elections. Using the Sixth Wave of the World Values Survey, discriminant analysis was conducted to generate the dimensionality, type, and structure of political attitudes in the three nations. Findings suggest that the structure of political attitudes in Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen is multidimensional: the Islamic‐Secular division, a conflict along economic policy visions and an emerging divisive dimension concerning political reform. Evidence indicates that political cleavages do not possess significant predictive power in determining voters’ choice at elections booths. This research also points to the significance of social transformation processes such as modernization and globalization in causing a shift in values among ordinary citizens in the Arab World. This research argues that in countries where the effects of modernization and globalization are higher, a weakening of the Islamic‐Secular division is witnessed. This research is important since it paves the way for further empirical analysis on political ideology in the Middle East. It shatters conjectures concluding that Arab polities are only divided by a single hierarchical dimension: Islamic‐Secular. It contributes to comparative research on the dimensionality of political ideology by showing that the Arab World is similar to the industrialized world in the dimensionality, nature, and structuration of political ideology.