流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

利用2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文分析了流动人口居留稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异性,并对流动人口居留稳定性的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明：①我国跨市流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年,新生代流动人口的居留稳定性与老一代并没有显著差异,从事工业行业的流动人口居留稳定性明显低于各类服务业从业者;②省内流动人口的居留稳定性低于省际流动人口,且有更大的可能离开当前城市,转向省际流动;③城市流动人口的规模和居留稳定性在空间格局和影响因素方面均存在明显差异,虽然收入水平和就业机会依然是吸引流动人口的主要因素,但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居性因素对提高流动人口的居留稳定性更为重要。     

基于细分类型的南京市创意产业空间演化特征与差异

运用核密度分析的方法,对南京市创意产业总体和细分类型的空间分布演化特征和差异进行研究。研究表明,南京市创意产业总体上呈现集聚态势,集聚重心主要位于城市商业和商务中心,并沿城市商务业主轴中山北路和中山路向外扩散,与外围地区的小型据点呈连绵粘合之势。然而,各类创意产业的空间格局与演化又呈现出一定的差异,主要表现在分布模式、演化态势、集聚强度、集聚速度等方面。这些差异主要与各类创意产业的行业关联特征、所有制结构、企业规模结构、行业发展阶段与增长趋势的差异相关。     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

时空交互视角下的中国入境客流分布动态分析

运用探索性时空分析框架(ESTDA),从时空交互视角分析1987-2013年入境港澳台和外国人市场的客流省区分布动态。研究发现:(1)省区差异趋于缩小,空间集聚增强。(2)港澳台市场全域极化突出,外国人市场局部时空模式多元;港澳台市场局部空间稳定性由西南部向中北部递减;东南省区间时空依赖效应较强,西北省区较弱。外国人市场局部空间稳定性由沿海、沿边向内陆递减;西部省区间时空依赖效应较强,东南省区较弱。(3)各省区的市场地位相对稳定,外国人客流空间格局变动性相对较高。(4)客流变动以省区协同增长为主,竞合格局因市场和局部区域而异。提出进一步壮大中西部旅游增长极;构建无障碍旅游区;区域合作差异化;加大宣传力度等对策。     

CONSUMERS AS COPRODUCERS OF PUBLIC SERVICES: SOME ECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

The concept of coproduction of public services has captured increased attention as a potential means of increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of local government. In this article we explore the concept of coproduction in an effort to sharpen the definition of that concept and add rigor to our understanding of the effects of coproduction in local service delivery and the processes by which coproductive activity occurs.     

THE PROBLEM OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT: RESULT OF MUDDLED NATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES

During 1953 through 1979 estimated, the U.S. economy has exhibited a roller-coaster economic performance–six periods of inadequate upturn, stagnation, and recession, with a chronic rise in unemployment because each upturn at its peak has tended to leave us with more unemployment than the previous one. During the period as a whole, we have forfeited 7.1 trillion 1978 dollars in GNP and 80.8 million years of civilian employment opportunities, and consequently lost about 1.8 trillion dollars in public revenues at all levels, with severe neglect of national priorities, and chronically rising Federal Budget deficits. This sorry record is due primarily to reliance upon a “trade-off” between unemployment and inflation. But empirical evidence for more than a quarter century has demonstrated that inflation rises as unused capabilities increase and vice versa. The annual inflation rate during the first half of 1979 exceeded 13 percent despite recession; it ranged from 1.6–3.0 percent during periods close to full employment. We now need thorough reconstruction of national economic policies, including abandonment of (1) the unemployment-inflation “trade-off,” (2) attempts to balance the federal budget at the expense of the economy and the people, (3) the prevalent monetary policy with soaring interest rates, and (4) excessive reliance on tax reductions in lieu of increased public outlays or investment. These changes would replace improvised and frequently conflicting national economic policies with comprehensive and coherent efforts. All this is in accord with the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978     

MANAGEMENT OF LARGE CITY REGIONS: DESIGNING EFFICIENT METROPOLITAN FISCAL POLICIES*

ABSTRACT Metropolitan areas (MSAs) are the location of the great majority of economic activity in the United States, and the largest produce a disproportionate share of output. It is thus critical for the economy's long‐term growth that large cities operate efficiently. In this paper, we briefly review the sources of productivity growth in cities. We then discuss the costs and benefits of political decentralization in large MSAs. After documenting the interdependence of the suburbs and central cities in large MSA, we develop a model that embodies many of the empirically verified aspects, including agglomeration economies and public goods. After calibrating the model to actual outcomes in a representative city, we simulate the effects of various kinds of fiscal redistributions. We conclude that, under the model, some kinds of fiscal redistributions can provide benefits in both cities and suburbs.     

ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN MATERIAL WELFARE OF THE POPULATION: THE GEORGIAN SSR

Spatial differences in the material welfare of the population of the Georgian SSR are evaluated on the basis of five per capita indices (monetary income, total savings, number of motor vehicles, retail trade turnover, and provision of basic services) for 61 administrative units of varying type, including ASSRs, rayons, and cities under union republic jurisdiction. Rankings on individual indices are then aggregated into a summary rating. Major cities and areas of commercial agriculture (tea, citrus) tended to have higher summary ratings than mountainous areas with difficult topography and climate and remote from major markets (translated by Jay Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

IMPACTS OF THE BRITISH NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL STUDY*

This paper tests for possible effects of the implementation of the British National Health Service (NHS) upon the health of the British population. Although analysis does reveal statistically significant improvements in Great Britain's infant mortality rate concurrent with the implementation of the NHS, a comparison with other western European nations reveals similar improvements simultaneously with the British policy intervention. Thus, we cannot conclude that the NHS had a significant effect upon British health. A more important result, however, is the demonstration of the utility of both the Box-Jenkins techniques and, in conjunction, the nonequivalent control group quasi-experimental design as important tools for performing policy evaluations.     

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL FEEDBACK USING NONRECURSIVE CAUSAL MODELS: THE CASE OF STATE DIVORCE POLICIES

Researchers interested in policy feedback effects can use the nonrecursive modeling strategies proposed here when time series data are not available for assessing feedback dynamics. This strategy is illustrated in a study of the impacts of American state divorce policies on divorce behavior and the responsiveness of policies to divorce rates. The findings show appreciable impact and feedback effects. In states where divorces are easier to obtain, the incidence of divorce is higher; and where divorce is more widespread, states are likely to implement more permissive divorce policies.     

99世博会对昆明城市形象的影响研究

使用问卷调查数据,从世博会的形象、世博园与昆明的形象、世博园在潜在游客中的形象位置、世博园在昆明景区中的相对形象地位等四个方面研究'99昆明世博会对昆明城市形象的影响问题,通过量化研究,得出世博会和世博园都对昆明的形象产生了较好的推动作用、世博会结束后世博园的形象与世博会的形象认知产生了分离现象的结论,分析了世博园尚未成为来昆游客游览和旅行社组织旅游线路首选景点的原因。