LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATES OF THE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER: AN APPRAISAL*

Basically, we have attempted to show the following in the course of setting out the algebra of regression analysis of selected regional employment multiplier models: (1) When the basic features of the model are shaped by the assumption of an unlagged response of local employment to changes in export employment, the least squares estimates of the multipliers are highly sensitive to the export coefficients vector A, given the sample observation matrix X. In a completely disaggregated model such as Equation (21), the multipliers are solely determined by the export coefficients and thus are entirely independent of sample observations. However, this independence does not hold in the case of a partially disaggregated model. The identity relation is also destroyed when a lag relationship is introduced into a completely disaggregated model. (2) A simple lag model produces results bascially different from those obtained by an unlagged model if the overall differences between current and lagged observations are significant. (3) Given a matrix of sample observations on employment, it is possible to estimate the upper limits of a least-squares aggregate multiplier and its variance simply from knowledge of the export coefficients (4) The export coefficients vector has also an important bearing upon the correlation coefficient. The correlation is unity if and only if the export coefficients vector is proportional to the local employment coefficients vector, while it is zero if and only if the export coefficients vector is a vector all of whose elements are one. Also, the correlation coefficient is equal to one when a completely disaggregated model is used. There is finally the question of what these results mean in terms of the formulation of a multiplier model. First of all, in view of the crucial importance of the export coefficients and the difficulties of estimating them, most of the existing models do not seem to offer promising results. Furthermore, all the models examined here have made some simplifying assumption with respect to the constancy of the export coefficients. It remains highly uncertain whether these coefficients are reasonably stable over time. Of course, it would be theoretically more acceptable to relax the assumption of the invariance of export coefficients and to obtain such coefficients at different points of time for each industry. However, this would be accomplished only at the cost of increased difficulties of estimating larger numbers of export coefficients. In addition, there is some doubt as to the validity of the assumption that export employment is proportional to export sales. Since a lag relationship is important not only in terms of attempts to formulate multiplier models more realistically, but also in terms of its significant effect on the multiplier values obtained, the nature and the form of a lagged response and its estimation problems need to be investigated in depth. Finally, problems of least squares bias and efficiency, inference, and prediction which may arise in the context of various models presented here remain to be investigated. A detailed analysis of such problems must be the subject of further investigation.     

FORECASTING METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT USING AN EXPORT-BASE ERROR-CORBECTION MODEL

This paper shows that a time-series version of export-based location quotients, which decompose area employment into export and local components are co-integrated. Given the statistically established co-integrating relation between the time series for export and local employment, the Granger Representation Theorem tells us that an error-correction mechanism model is the appropriate time-series model specification. A set of forecasting experiments is carried out, in order to test whether the error-correction model produces better long-run forecasts that hold together in economically meaningful ways. Given the computer hardware and software that currently exist, the model developed here represents a simple, low-cost method for accurately forecasting local-area employment in the tradition of past work on export-base models.     

Regional inequality in China during its rise as a giant exporter: A value chain analysis

China's exports success has implications for regional income inequality, because most of its export products are manufactured in the coastal zone. We propose a value chain-based accounting framework to quantify the contributions of exports to regional income inequality. We employ newly developed interregional input–output tables for China, which distinguish between processing export activities and ordinary export activities. We analyze the period 2002–2012, the decade during which China became the “Factory of the World.” We find that an RMB of processing exports contributed much more to regional inequality than an RMB of ordinary exports or domestic final demand. Still, changes in regional inequality (increasing in 2002–2007 and decreasing between 2007 and 2012) are much more due to rising ordinary exports in the first subperiod and the growth of domestic final demand coupled with changes in the configuration of value chains in the second.     

Evolutionary Series of Physical-Geographic Phenomena and Finite Automata

Evolutionary series of the type rill—furrow—gully—ravine are analyzed in terms of the theory of finite automata, in which the input and state at time t determine the output and state at time t + 1. External factors of evolution are treated as the inputs of the automaton. If the probabilities of one state's turning into another state are considered, the model becomes a simple Markov chain or, in the language of the theory of automata, a probabilistic finite automaton. It is shown on the basis of a matrix of transition probabilities that after a certain length of time the system reaches a state of equilibrium, or ergodic state.     

日韩东盟8国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易关系的研究

国际旅游与国际贸易是相互联系的,旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游。本文在前期研究工作的基础上,提出了一个旅游与贸易互动的三阶段模型,即旅游引发贸易、贸易推动旅游和偏好-容量限制3个阶段。以日韩东盟8国为例,选用1986年-2009年统计数据,分析了8国入境我国旅游与进出口贸易的关系,构建了入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易和进出口贸易3组24个推拉方程。在此基础上,以1992年和2002年为分界点,分析了各阶段入境客流量与进口贸易、出口贸易增长率的变化及弧弹性;依据每万人次入境旅游引发的进出口贸易强度,将日韩东盟8国划分为四种类型,分析了近10年来旅游引起进出口贸易强度的变化,为通过旅游拉动贸易或通过贸易推动入境旅游发展提供了科学依据。     

Resource‐Constrained Export‐Base Regional Multipliers: A Northian Approach*

Abstract. This paper attempts to rescue the regional export‐base growth model from a purely demand‐side interpretation. It formally develops the classic Northian approach, where the exploitation of region‐specific resources by export‐orientated production sectors determines regional growth. In this model, the nature of the regional expansion is shown to be stimulus‐specific with the value of the marginal export‐base multiplier varying within very wide limits, depending upon key characteristics of the region and the nature of the supply‐side shock to the export base.     

Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

This article demonstrates that recent population growth in the world's largest cities has conformed to the general parameters of the logistic process. Using data recently provided by the United Nations, logistic population growth for 485 million-person cities is analyzed at 5-year intervals during 1950–2010, with the UN projections for 2015 adopted as upper limits. A series of ordinary least-squares regression models of increasing complexity are estimated on the pooled data. In one class of models, the logarithms of population proportions are specified to be linear in time, which is the standard approach, but in a second class of models those proportions are specified as being quadratic. The most complex models control logistic growth estimates for (i) city-specific effects (e.g., initial population), (ii) nation-specific effects (e.g., economic development, age distribution of population), and (iii) global coordinates (for unobserved effects). Moreover, the results are segregated according to each city's membership in four different growth clubs, which was an important finding of previous research.     

AN EXAMINATION OF STATE FOREIGN EXPORT PROMOTION AND MANUFACTURING EXPORTS*

ABSTRACT As a means of promoting economic development state governments are increasing their levels of support for export promotion; however, there has been virtually no statistical analysis of the effects of the state export promotion expenditures. The present study specifies and estimates a cross-section model in order to quantify the relationship between state export promotion and exports. The empirical analysis allows for the calculation of the export promotion elasticity of exports on a state basis. Two conclusions are that the rationale supporting export promotion expenditures is supported empirically and that there is much diversity among states for the estimated elasticity.     

中国受亚洲各区域的出口贸易溢出研究

出口导向型经济是日本制造、亚洲四小龙和中国之崛起这些亚洲经济奇迹的共同特色。中国加入世界贸易组织之后,出口贸易的带动作用更加重要。本文采用1985-2005年中国、日本和亚洲其他区域的贸易数据,以亚洲金融危机为分界点,利用模型分析中国与日本、中国与亚洲其他地区在世界出口市场中的关系,并最终得出结论:中国与亚洲各地区在出口贸易上的关系相互依赖,各方在贸易上的继续深化将会为这个国际分工体系建立一个各为有利的环境。     

Basic National-Economic Problems of the Republic of Cuba

The author sees Cuba's main economic problems in the need for raising sugar production, the output of animal products, the development of crops and industries for export, the expansion of the power supply for industrialization, and the provision of adequate repair and spare-parts facilities to replace worn United States-made industrial equipment.     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.     

沉没成本、制度环境与企业出口地理动态

本文使用2002-2011年中国海关出口数据,探究成本视角下企业出口地理动态和作用机制。实证结果表明企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出均对企业在出口市场上的进入和退出存在显著双面性影响：企业出口活动不利于企业进入新市场,但利于企业继续留在国外已有市场中;邻近企业溢出为企业进入新市场创造了有利条件,但加快了企业从已有市场退出。本文还发现在市场化程度较低和政府干预程度较高的地区,企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出发挥的“双面性”影响明显。这意味地方制度环境能影响中国企业出口地理动态,塑造了企业出口的动机和策略。     

An Economic Analysis of Biproportional Properties in an Input-Output System

Various methods, such as biproportional adjustment and econometric estimating have been used to generate time series for input-output tables. In this paper, temporal changes of input-output coefficients are examined in order to analyze their behavior. Within the Chicago Region Econometric Input-Output Model, a set of input- output relationships has been extracted analytically for the period 1980–1997. Using the empirical evidence for Chicago, this paper conducts econometric time series analysis to determine whether or not certain coefficients or sets of coefficients exhibit tendencies toward stability or predictable change or whether others require more extensive econometric estimation.     

Information Availability and Market Power in Export Competition: The Case of Regional Health Care Markets

In this paper I analyze the spatial-economic determinants of export competition. I develop a competing central place spatial interaction model to analyze the spatial availability of information, market power, distance, demand threshold, and interregional market variables. Model estimates are based on national data from The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, and I examine Medicare health exports from the Seattle hospital market to markets throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information availability and market power for the Seattle export hospitals have a significant effect on export sales of hospital Medicare services. Intra and interregional competition with other major hospital markets are significant determinants of export competition. Distance to the Seattle market has a strong, negative effect on export sales and on patient migration from other markets.     

How China Navigated the Dilemma of Trade Liberalization and Government Revenues

Many economists believe that in the long run, the aggregate performance of open economies is better than that of closed ones, and that open policies contribute significantly to economic development. At the same time, many political scientists and policy makers fear that, in the short run, one of the steps towards openness — trade liberalization — may harm government revenues. However, in the 1990s, China successfully navigated the dilemma of trade liberalization and government revenues. In this period, China decreased tariff and non‐tariff barriers for WTO accession, but has achieved dramatically increased tariff revenues since 1999. This study explores how China implemented trade liberalization and simultaneously increased tariff revenues in the 1990s. It demonstrates that a series of institutional arrangements, including a reform of Criminal Law, rigorous anti‐smuggling activities and a de facto tax imposed on the export sector, successfully curbed smuggling activities through the processing trade, and made foreign‐invested manufacturing enterprises the major contributors to the stability of customs revenue. China's case shows that a prosperous, export‐oriented and foreign‐invested manufacturing sector could potentially provide a developing country with a source of customs revenue.     

中国食品出口贸易地理网络演化

华人网络与文化距离对中国食品行业贸易地理网络的形成与演化具有显著影响.本文基于2000-2016年中国海关贸易数据库,首先展示中国各省份食品贸易地理网络格局及其演化趋势,研究发现我国东部省份以东亚和北美为主要出口目的地,中西部省份贸易网络的空间不均衡性较强,且各省份食品出口均有贸易联系强化和目的国多样化特征.其次,构建...     

The Food Resources of the Capitalist World

The author discusses a major research program now under way at the Institute of Geography, covering food production and consumption in the developed industrial nations and in the newly independent countries. Under investigation are ways of expanding food resources in the developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America; overcoming the food deficit and reliance on food imports of African countries; and creating a diversified agriculture combining both export crops to finance economic development and food output for domestic consumption.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

The Problem of Economic Regionalization of Developing Countries

In contrast to developed capitalist countries, where economic regions generally evolve on the basis of manufacturing complexes, the predominant region-forming factors in developing countries are usually mining and agriculture. Also, while internal economic relations play an important function in the economic regionalization of advanced countries, in developing countries it is foreign trade that is more significant since much of the output of mining and commercial agriculture is generally destined for export.     

Making a Policy Problem of Water Export in Canada: 1960–2002

The article explores how political tensions developed around the issue of Canadian water export, how policy solutions and alternatives to the problem were offered, and how finally it came to be recognized by the national government. The water export issue reached the formal agenda after a lengthy period of being denied serious consideration. However, it is arguable that agendas are set if an issue receives attention from policy decision makers. This is because an issue's ascension to agenda status is not an indication of how it is actually going to be decided upon. The case of water export demonstrates that the government adopted a policy solution consistent with assumptions prevalent at the time and acceptable among elected decision makers. Yet, the solution was contrary to the expectations of those who demanded a complete water export ban in Canada.