SPATIAL ENTRY DETERRENCE UNDER OLIGOPOLY*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines colluding, oligopolistic firms in a linear market. By assuming that rivals do not compete for consumers at their market boundaries, it is shown that an equilibrium exists without adopting a convex transportation cost function. Two price profiles are derived. The first describes firm prices in the absence of threatened entry. The second details profit-maximizing prices which forestall entrants. Given infinite relocation costs, threatened entry leads to price adjustments by the incumbent firms.     

VARIABLE RETURNS TO SCALE AND REGIONAL RESOURCE ALLOCATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the resource allocational implications of intra-industrial externalities, i.e., variable returns to scale (VRS), in a two-region general equilibrium model of production under uncertainty. It is shown that most standard results concerning changes in the goods price ratio with constant returns to scale (CRS) under uncertainty generalize to VRS. In contrast, standard results concerning changes in factor endowments extend from CRS to decreasing returns to scale, but not to all permissible levels of increasing returns to scale. Thus, such theorems as factor price equalization and Rybczynski do not generalize to all real-world levels of VRS.     

DEREGULATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRICITY: PRICE AND WELFARE CONSEQUENCES OF SPATIAL OLIGOPOLY WITH UNIFORM DELIVERED PRICES*

ABSTRACT. Theoretical, spatial oligopoly models are developed and calibrated to simulate the price and welfare consequences of deregulating the retail price of electricity (the distribution function), assuming competing sources of generation supply are available. Two types of distribution competition are considered, retaining the currently used uniform delivered pricing structure: competition for customers at neighboring utilities’ borders and franchise competition. Because duplicate facilities are required for borderline competition, short-run price increases ranging between 14 and 37 percent over existing regulated prices are estimated for upstate New York, largely because deregulated prices reflect replacement, not historic, costs of facilities.     

PRICE UNCERTAINTY,FACTOR SUBSTITUTION,AND THE LOCATIONAL BIAS OF BUSINESS TAXES*

Consideration of the integrated production-location problem is extended to include several types of business taxes. Many of these taxes are technologically and spatially neutral under certainty, but are shown to be nonneutral when factor prices are stochastic and the firm is risk averse, even when the tax is spatially uniform. Consequently, even a nationally uniform tax can have regional biases and can encourage migration of plants. When factor prices are uncertain, the effects of taxes on output rates, input ratios, and plant location vary with the form of the tax imposed as well as the amount to be paid. Income taxes involve the taxing authority in sharing the risk with the firm and are shown to promote risk taking by the firm and induce the expansion of output. Locational incentives which are mutually beneficial to firms and the government are presented.     

A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE JOURNEY-TO-SHOP WITH PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT In this paper we extend the contextual theory of demand to consider rational consumer behavior when the household must deal with some random fluctuation in the prices it faces. Prices at stores reflect “advertised specials,” which are potential cost reductions random across goods, and random in-store price changes, which can only be observed by visiting the store. Our theory of rational behavior includes: (1) calculation by the household of an ex ante plan for its planning period; (2) modification to take account of advertised specials; and (3) rational search behavior to take advantage of random fluctuations observable only on a given day. This theory utilizes an active cash balance as a buffer against random variations from planned daily expenditures, and reformulations of trip circuits to account for patterns of cost-minimizing search.     

CANADA'S INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS UNDER FREE TRADE

Canada is currently involved in renegotiating its tariffs in the present discussions on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (gatt). Although official policy seems to be cast in terms of sectoral tariff cuts, reflecting Canada's trading strengths and weaknesses, there has been strong advocacy by some economists that Canada should enter free-trade agreements with the United States or preferably on a multilateral basis (Daly and Globerman, 1976; Economic Council of Canada, 1975; Wonnacott, 1975). The recent books advocating free trade are persuasive in mood and argument but their authors follow "the established orthodoxy of most economists in this country over the past two decades: foreign investment is, of itself, not a problem except to the jaundiced eye of the (nationalist) beholder. The tariff is the real villain … There are no problems, in this view that a good dose of free trade and free capital markets will not cure" (Rotstein, 1972, 2). So, we are faced with a paradox: on the one hand some economists, including those working for the Economic Council, are strongly committed to the argument that free trade will lead to manufacturing success for Canada while on the other hand the nation is experiencing its worst negative balance for secondary manufactured goods. Canada's trading partners have indicated increasingly that Canada does not produce finished goods of the type they require at attractive prices. This anti-export syndrome is a product of the high exchange value of the Canadian dollar (till early 1977) and the high basic cost of Canadian goods.     

UNCERTAIN INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE AND LOCATION CHOICE*

ABSTRACT. In this paper, we adapt recent developments in uncertainty modeling to the location choice paradigm. In particular, we analyze the impact of income and housing price uncertainty on housing demand and location demand characteristics in a partial equilibrium framework. We begin by recognizing that housing consumption cannot readily be altered in response to changes in income and price. We find that income and house price risk affect housing and location demands in different ways. Additionally, the spatial characteristics of price risk also affect consumer housing and location demands. For example, if housing price risk is lower farther from the central city, housing demand can be greater in those locations even with the higher transportation cost. Thus, over some locations, the expected price gradient could be positive.     

FIRM ENTRY AND EXIT: CAUSALITY TESTS AND ECONOMIC-BASE LINKAGES*

ABSTRACT One of the foundations of applied regional economics down through the years has been economic base theory (EBT). EBT presumes that economic activity within the basic sector unidirectionally causes economic activity in nonbasic sectors. In recent years, however, increasing attention has been given to the possibility that traditionally nonbasic activities (e.g., services) may be quite important in determining a region's total economic activity. In this paper, we examine the nature and direction of causality of economic activity within a regional economy. Using novel data on entry and exit of firms, the empirical analysis provides new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of traditional economic base theory.     

PRICE AND LOCATION CONJECTURES IN MEDIUM- AND LONG-RUN SPATIAL COMPETITION MODELS*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines medium-run and long-run equilibria in unbounded (circular) and bounded (linear) one-dimensional multifirm markets. A price-location adjustment model is outlined that dows simulation of the spatial equilibrium when these firms anticipate reactions from their nearest spatial rivals. Thus, the market equilibrium is derived from the interdependent but atomistic decisions of the competing firms and is not imposed by some outside observer or agency. Ail conjectures are exogenous; the three well-known price conjectures (Greenhut-Ohta, Hotelling-Smithies, and Losch) are highlighted; and the relevant comparative statics are provided.     

PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY UNCERTAINTY AND THE OPTIMAL LOCATION OF THE FIRM*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the implication of production-technology uncertainty for the exclusion theorem. The paper presents the result that the risk-averse firm facing production technology uncertainty prefers an intermediate location to avoid risk under certain conditions. The firm chooses an intermediate location (over a corner location) particularly if its degree of risk aversion overwhelms the inherent convexity of profit with respect to location. The latter depends, in turn, on the structure of production technology characterized by the elasticity of substitution and returns to scale parameters.