A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES APPROACHES TO MODELING INTERSECTORAL AND INTERCOUNTY EMPLOYMET LINKAGES IN RURAL REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: Akaike's final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputi/time series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.     

A CONTEXTUAL THEORY OF RETAIL CENTRAL PLACES ON A LINEAR MARKET*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents an initial version of a new theory of central places for retailing activities. Confined to a linear market and using the Contextual Theory of Demand to model consumer behavior, the model extends the economic theory of central places (Eaton and Lipsey, 1982). In its present form, the model specifies four parameters that control the spatial relationship between the locations of households and the equilibrium locations of central places: expenditure shares in consumption, transportation cost functions, storage costs by commodity, and capital costs of retailers. The locational equilibria of the model are optima when all costs are considered.     

THE EFFECT OF RETAIL FIRM OWNERSHIP ON PRICE EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the effect of retail firm ownership on price equilibrium using a simple linear-city model. It is shown that price divergence emerges due to the differences in retail firm ownership, because retail firms under different ownership internalize shopping externalities differently. It is also shown that if a commercial center has two specialized retail firms, these stores charge the same markup for different goods at the equilibrium.     

TIME SERIES AND TURNING POINT FORECASTS: A COMPARISON OF ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES AND BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO LESAGE'S DATA*

ABSTRACT. Associative memory techniques are drawn from the artificial intelligence literature, and have demonstrated considerable utility for parameter identification in dynamical systems. Previous turning point forecasts constructed by LeSage are compared to forecasts generated by associative memories and simple autoregressive models. Both the associative memories and the autoregressions perform as well or better than the more complicated econometric procedures described by LeSage, with the exception of West and Harrison's (1989) dynamic linear model specification. Extensions are suggested.     

ROBERT BRENNER IN THE TUNNEL OF TIME*

Robert Brenner is a follower of one tradition in Marxism that is as diffusionist, as Eurocentric, as any conservative position. Within one of the most egalitarian of all socio-political doctrines, this is a tradition that believes in the historical superiority of Europeans over non-Europeans. Eurocentric Marxists are not racist, nor even prejudiced, but most of them believe that Europe is the fountainhead of civilization, the permanent source of innovative social change.     

A STRUCTURAL EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN LABOR DEMAND*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses a large data base to study metropolitan labor demand functions. The data are disaggregated by two-digit SICs in manufacturing for SMS As, and are corrected for changing SMSA boundaries. Labor demand elasticities are estimated for factor and commodity prices, transportation costs, state and local taxes and expenditures, and production-function shifters. Estimates from different years allow one to test Le Chatelier's principle in the context of interregional change.     

晋中平原地区农村聚落扩展分析

在实地考察的基础上，章从规模、速度、形态和类型等方面分析了晋中平原地区农村聚落扩展的特点，并深入探讨了影响农村聚落扩展的因素，认为聚落扩展主要是人口增长和家庭规模变化、社会经济发展与收入增加、交通条件改善、农村地区工业化及其他因素共同作用的结果。最后指出了由于聚落扩展而带来的许多难以解决的问题。     

A CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS OF THE JOURNEY-TO-SHOP WITH PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

ABSTRACT In this paper we extend the contextual theory of demand to consider rational consumer behavior when the household must deal with some random fluctuation in the prices it faces. Prices at stores reflect “advertised specials,” which are potential cost reductions random across goods, and random in-store price changes, which can only be observed by visiting the store. Our theory of rational behavior includes: (1) calculation by the household of an ex ante plan for its planning period; (2) modification to take account of advertised specials; and (3) rational search behavior to take advantage of random fluctuations observable only on a given day. This theory utilizes an active cash balance as a buffer against random variations from planned daily expenditures, and reformulations of trip circuits to account for patterns of cost-minimizing search.     

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY OF RURAL NEVADA WATER SYSTEMS: A HEDONIC SHADOW COST FUNCTION APPROACH*

ABSTRACT. The efficiency of the water utility firms in rural Nevada and their input optimization are examined in this study. The empirical methodology incorporates a hedonic specification of the nonminimum globally concave cost function in estimating the effect of the regulatory environment and the quality of water services on the optimum utilization of inputs. Allocative distortions are introduced through shadow prices and are specified as functions of regressors which make distortion factors firmand input-specific. The results show that 76 percent of the water utilities of rural Nevada in the sample overutilize energy relative to labor. The impact of allocative distortions on each firm's cost is also computed.     

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE: STATE LOANS*

The luster of economic growth, the existence of depressed regions, and the fear of competition from giveaway programs in other states have all resulted in state governments adopting a rash of programs designed to encourage a strong manufacturing base for their economy. Many economists feel uneasy about the rapid spread of such industrial incentive programs as tax breaks, government loans, and industrial revenue bonds.¹ The literature of public finance, development, and regional economics contains many interesting studies examining the wisdom of these undertakings. This paper hopes to contribute by developing a method of benefit-cost analysis for appraisal of industrial incentive programs. Even though the model is constructed for and applied to the analysis of state government industrial development loans, the principles formulated should be easily adaptable to the assessment of other types of regional development programs. A secondary objective of the paper is to discuss the first empirical application of a model which accounts for possible differences between the social opportunity cost of foregone investment and that of foregone consumption.²     

A PRELIMINARY PETROGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF CYPRIOT WHITE SLIP II WARE*

Samples of Late Bronze Age White Slip II ware from Cyprus were analysed using optical and scanning electron microscopy in conjunction with energy and wavelength dispersive analyse The slip has a novel granular nature and the coarser aggregates are impressed into the outer surface of the body, indicating that it was applied to a moist surface before the vessels were fired. It has a consistent mineral assemblage (Mg‐chlorite + illite‐smectite + sphene + anatase/rutile ± albite) which is very similar to that of hydrothermally altered zones associated with copper orebodies in the Troodos Massif which were mined in antiquity Our analysis suggests that the raw material for the slip was not found at the ground surface, because the alteration assemblage is unaffected by oxidation and copper carbonate or iron staining. It may, therefore, be a by‐product of sub‐surface ore extraction