Pfister's space characterisation of ionospheric movements

Pfister's theorem provides a relationship between the velocity of an effective reflecting surface, the Doppler shifts of the reflected radio waves and their angles of arrival. The Bribie Island HF radar measures the Doppler shift, the north-south angle of arrival and the east-west angle of arrival of the ionospheric echo(es). These three dimensions were used to form Pfister's space. The signatures produced by modelled data in this space were used to characterise ionospheric movements. These signatures allowed non-dispersive plane-wave motions, non plane-wave motions which obey Pfister's theorem, dispersive and superposed motions to be distinguished. These different characteristic motions were also identified in a time-series of F-region measurements. Some of the ionospheric motions previously attributed to dispersion may have been produced by superposed disturbances. The day to day variation of how well Pfister's theorem is obeyed may be due to the variability of sources producing disturbances, and therefore superposition effects, and not just dispersion as previously claimed. The individual parameters of superposed disturbances may be difficult to extract using spectral analysis techniques. The wide variety of motions observed at mid-latitudes have important consequences for those techniques which assume a uniform drift of the ionosphere.     

A Spatial Prior for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

In this paper we develop a Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vector autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables. We compare forecast accuracy of the proposed spatial prior to that from a vector autoregressive model relying on the Minnesota prior and find a significant improvement. In addition to a spatially motivated prior variance as in LeSage and Pan (1995) we develop a set of prior means based on spatial contiguity. A Theil-Goldberger estimator may be used for the proposed model making it easy to implement.     

Refining correspondence analysis-based ceramic seriation of regional data sets

Ceramic seriation is one of the primary tools used by archaeologists to create chronologies, especially for surface survey data. In this article, we outline a bootstrapped approach to correspondence analysis-based seriation designed to help assess and improve the stability of relative orderings produced through such analyses. This procedure systematically identifies and removes small samples and sites with unusual samples, such as those with multiple components, which are not handled well by seriation and require secondary interpretation. Our approach combines data from multiple projects in the Zuni region of the American Southwest in order to gauge the effects of intraregional variation in ceramic distributions and reexamine prior interpretations of demographic change based on individual projects. This analysis highlights two previously unknown regional trends, including variation in the distribution of multicomponent sites and potential short-term depopulation of a significant part of the region. Based on this example, we further suggest that our method may be particularly useful in situations where little prior chronological information is available.     

基于社区能力的旅游小企业成长机制研究——以宏村为例

社区能力强调发展的内源性,旅游小企业嵌入在旅游地中,具有明显的内源性成长特征。本文以宏村旅游小企业为研究对象,采用扎根理论进行编码分析。研究发现：民居房屋、传统技能和地方文化等社区原始资源是旅游小企业成长的基础;同行引导、邻里支持和知识获取等社区主动参与方式促进小企业加速成长;企业主开展的企业合作和景区宣传等社区集体行动助推企业持续成长;企业家精神作为社区发展动力存在于企业成长的全过程,引导着社区资源、社区参与和集体行动等各环节作用的发挥。研究进一步发现,旅游小企业成长和社区能力建设具有循环促进作用,这种促进作用有利于社区能力的培育和旅游小企业在目的地的集聚成长。     

Demand-Threshold Estimation for Business Activities in Rural Saskatchewan

Historically, a common technique used to assess a community's ability to support various business activities has been demand-threshold estimation. The concept of a demand threshold has been applied at the community level by estimating a relationship between community population and the number of establishments of a particular kind in the community. The approach taken in this research incorporates a spatial dimension (community urban proximity) in addition to community population to estimate demand thresholds. Using a count data technique, demand thresholds are estimated for 27 different business activities found in 584 rural Saskatchewan communities in 1990. Both population and urban proximity are found to be important explanatory variables.     

Exploring Romano–British finds assemblages

This paper presents a synthesis of current approaches to the comparison of archaeological assemblages. It draws its data from Roman Britain but the methodology discussed is equally applicable to other periods and places. Different types of assemblages including those of small finds, broken vessels and animal bones are discussed, and the problems relating to quantification are considered. The different sorts of questions that may be asked of data of varying quality are examined, and it is shown that even 'poor quality' data can provide useful insights into past societies. It is argued that to explore the full richness of the data available, multivariate statistics are an invaluable tool and this is illustrated by exploration of two groups of assemblages using Correspondence Analysis. Finally, attitudes within the archaeological community which may prove a barrier to further advances are examined.     

Exploring a Relationship Between Aggregate and Individual Levels Spatial Data Through Semivariogram Models

Analysis of social data is frequently done using aggregate-level data. There may not be a direct interest in spatial relationships in the data, but the presence of spatial interdependence may still need to be taken into account. This article explores the aggregation effect from a spatial perspective by assuming nonzero covariance for individual data from two different groups. We investigate the bias associated with aggregate-level data for semivariogram analysis. We show that the bias mainly arises from the average of the semivariogram within the groups. It is also shown how aggregated-level data may be used to estimate parameters of an individual-level semivariogram model. A nonlinear regression method is proposed to carry out this estimation procedure and a simulation is done to clarify the results.     

Redundancy as an Index of Change in Point Pattern Analysis

Point pattern analysis based on concepts from information theory can go beyond existing techniques. Direct measurement of spatial form is achieved when Thiessen polygons are constructed around the points; in this scheme, each point's proportion of total area may be treated like a probability. Three information-theoretic indices are available for analysis of a distribution of such probabilities. Entropy is density dependent. Redundancy, defined as the difference between observed and maximum entropy, seems to avoid this problem when the number of individuals in a pattern exceeds twenty. Comparisons of prior and posterior redundancy provide an indication of change in overall pattern form. An information gain expectation reflects changes for each individual in a pattern. Here, point-area redundancy parameters are determined for Poisson-generated patterns, using a gamma distribution of polygon areas and a computer-generated set. An application to an urban crime problem illustrates the use of these parameters in the analysis of pattern change.     

Illegitimate fertility decline in England, 1851-1911

This study attempts to determine the extent to which several hypotheses are able to account for the illegitimate fertility decline in England in the second half of the nineteenth century. The results of a pooled time-series analysis are consistent with the hypothesis that a rise in working-class prosperity accounts for much of the decline. Additional reasons for the decline, which cannot be ruled out with the data used in the analysis, include the diffusion of knowledge and the acceptability of contraceptive methods and a decline in agricultural employment.     

北京市低收入社区社会融合的多维度测度与影响因素分析

在快速城市化的背景下,城市低收入社区群体的社会融入问题逐渐成为城市包容性发展的桎梏。基于北京市典型低收入社区的实地调查数据,本文运用探索性因子分析对城市低收入社区群体社会融合结构和现状进行探讨,并对影响城市低收入社区群体的社会融合状况进行实证分析。研究发现调查城市低收入社区群体的社会融合主要受到心理融合、经济融合、环境融合、社区关系融合4个维度影响,社区关系融合、环境融合、经济融合和心理融合程度表现出依次降低的倾向,且居民的社会融合总体水平偏低。从影响因素来看,低收入社区群体的社会融合主要受个体因素、家庭因素、就业因素和住房因素的影响,不同维度社会融合程度的影响因素也有所差异。     

We Finished the Plan,So Now What? Impacts of Collaborative Stakeholder Participation on Land Use Policy

There is a growing movement toward collaborative stakeholder participation in environmental policy. Rather than calling for a reliance on government officials to solve environmental problems, this approach calls for empowering a community of stakeholders to contribute meaningfully. Scholars examining citizen participation have investigated the performance of such efforts. This study examines one important aspect of performance, the impact of stakeholder participation on policymaking at the local level. A multiple‐case analysis of county‐level, community‐based task forces working on farmland preservation planning in Ohio, U.S., reveals patterns of policymaking processes and the near‐term impacts of collaborative planning. These patterns are linked to scholarship using prior empirical studies as well as the Institutional Analysis and Development framework, which integrates physical, social, and institutional variables to examine collective decision‐making related to natural resources. Results indicate that the degree of policy change is associated closely with local contextual factors, rather than internal group factors often emphasized in studies of citizen advisory committees and collaborative groups.     

The use of summed radiocarbon probability distributions in archaeology: a review of methods

Using a database of Australian archaeological radiocarbon dates (n = 2996), this paper explores three key methodological issues associated with the use of summed probability plots of radiocarbon data: 1) the minimum sample size needed for a statistically reliable plot; 2) the effect of radiocarbon calibration on the structure of these plots; and 3) the application of a taphonomic correction to such time-series data. The results identify several protocols, recommended as best-practice when using summed probability plots: 1) a minimum sample size of 500 radiocarbon dates should be used, and the sample size and the mean of the standard deviations of the radiocarbon dates (ΔT) in the sample should both be reported; 2) a moving average trendline of 500-800 years should be used to offset the effects of the calibration process; and 3) Surovell et al. “Correcting temporal frequency distributions for taphonomic bias” [Journal of Archaeological Science 36 (2009) 1715-1724] is explored, with modifications and temporal limits (<25,000 cal years BP) proposed. Correction of time-series data using theoretical taphonomic correction curves is useful as a heuristic tool but can obscure real trends if applied routinely. Comparison between summed probability plots and other occupation data is presented and shows good correlation. However it is recommended that plots are supplemented by other archaeological indices and the cross-comparison of such multiple proxies will strengthen identification of occupation trends.     

Class,ethnicity, and voting behaviour in Australia∗

This paper assesses the importance of a range of social structural influences on Australian electoral behaviour, with specific reference to ethnicity and occupational class. The analysis is conducted on two levels. Firstly, aggregate level data is employed, using the 1976 census matched by federal electorate to the 1977 election results. Techniques from factorial ecology are used to construct conceptually unambiguous measures of constituency characteristics, and these are related to voting behaviour using multivariate techniques. Secondly, individual level survey data collected in 1979 are used to confirm the importance of the socioeconomic cleavage and urban‐rural divisions. They also indicate that ethnicity has an appreciable influence on electoral behaviour among those born in Mediterranean countries. Northern Europeans (mainly British) prove to be no different in their electoral behaviour than native‐born Australians, while the results for Eastern Europeans are inconclusive.     

The efficacy of violence mitigation: A second look using time-series analysis

Among peace researchers and practitioners, it is generally accepted that efforts to prevent violence can be instrumental in its mitigation. So, it was distressing to read the research findings of Meier, Bond, and Bond (2007) that mitigation was positively related to organized raids in the Horn of Africa where there is pastoralist–pastoralist and pastoralist–agriculturalist violence. This article seeks to build on their research. It uses a ‘de-trending’ approach for time-series analysis that is commonly used in economics and financial studies. It reports an opposite statistically significant finding. When the data used by Meier et al. are de-trended, violence associated with organized raids is negatively correlated with mitigation. This negative correlation is similar when data on mitigation and organized raids are de-trended with time as a predictor, on the one hand, and with seasonality over time as a predictor, on the other. Implications regarding the temporal dimension of peace research and practice are presented.     

Socioreligious context and rock art in east-central California

Interpretations of rock art typically focus on the symbolic meaning of the art, treating the paintings and engravings implicitly as passive iconographic texts. Rock art, however, is the product of active ritual and ceremony. As such it played an important role in the socioreligious lives of its creators and users. Here I provide a study of the socioreligious contexts of the pictographs and petroglyphs of eastern California, North America, emphasizing the painted art of the Tubatulabal and Coso Shoshone territories and the petroglyphs of the Coso region and using only archaeological data. This requires, first, establishing the chronological placement of this art. Based on a variety of lines of evidence the pictographs and some of the petroglyphs are argued to be historic in age. An ethnography of communications model is then used to provide a conceptual basis for investigating socioreligious contexts and ritual functions of the art. Message content is studied using a factor analysis of painted motif types and an examination of the distribution of sites predominated by certain factors. Two motif complexes, or message content groups, are identified: a Tubatulabal ritual community, employing geometric designs, and a Coso Shoshone community, exhibiting a predominance of representational pictographs. Analysis of message form, channels, settings, and inferred ritual participants suggests that Tubatulabal art resulted from community rituals, in which all the inhabitants of a hamlet would have directly or indirectly participated. Knowledge of the rules for creating and interpreting the parietal art would have been common to all in the community. In contrast, pictographs of the Coso Shoshone were the result of private rituals, with limited numbers of participants and witnesses. The message communicated in the ritual and the painted art would have necessarily been arcane, and few in the community at large may have even known of the creation of this rock art. The Coso petroglyphs, also created by the Coso Shoshone but apparently by a different ritual community within the population, had a different set of rules for ritual actions and symbolic interpretation. The ceremonies creating the engravings were commonplace, yet logically were conducted in private or with few participants, suggesting that the knowledge concerning the means for undertaking and interpreting this type of ritual was widely known throughout the population.     

Enacting Experimental Alternative Spaces

This paper analyses the experimental nature of alternative spaces and the affective, emotional and embodied experience their enactment generates. In so doing, it grounds the analysis on the intentional community of Damanhur (Italy), as an example of experimental spaces. Scholarship concerning intentional communities draws on utopian studies that consider them as utopian laboratories. More recently, non‐representational approaches have emphasised the processual nature of utopias, yet studies have overlooked the experimental nature of these alternative spaces. Drawing upon in‐depth ethnographic data, this paper engages with community experimentations that took place in Damanhur for residents and visitors. It illustrates how utopian enactment is experimental and thus, disordering, unsettling and creative. Moreover, I argue that experimentations are not limited to unsettling the social structure of the community and, when studying the enactment of alternative spaces, emphasis should also be on their capacity to affect the individual.     

Space, Time and Sustainability in the Hadejia-Jama'are Wetlands and the Komodugu Yobe Basin, Nigeria

Debates about sustainability still take insufficient account of the significance of space and time. In this paper, their significance is demonstrated empirically through an account of the complex environmental and socio-economic impacts of dam construction on flood-plain wetlands in the Hadejia-Jama'are river basin in Nigeria. Socio-economic data from a rapid rural appraisal exercise and household questionnaire survey (data on patterns of production in the flood plain and patterns of mobility) are appraised in the context of patterns of environmental change and of inundation (analysis of riparian vegetation and time-series aerial photographs). The paper concludes that sustainable river basin development requires more attention to be paid to the perspectives derived from different scales of analysis. This calls for appropriate institutions allowing communication at the interface between village-level producer and river basin manager.     

国外旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）研究综述

旅游发展作为经济增长过程的重要组成部分,其对经济增长的影响关系成为旅游经济学研究的核心内容。本文基于国外主流旅游经济学文献所认同的旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）,从方法论角度,分别就这种假说是否存在的时间序列数据分析、静态面板数据分析、动态面板数据分析与面板协整分析研究文献进行系统梳理。基本思路是,在总结国外研究文献对TLGH研究优劣势的基础上,据此初步揭示出TLGH研究框架的基本路径,并对我国TLGH研究的理论拓展与实证分析提出了相关建议。     

Best practices for measuring community resources across Canada: A comparison of coding classifications

Social scientists, geographers, criminologists, and health scientists are often tasked with finding data to best capture the impact of “community context” on individual outcomes, including residential services, physical resources, and social institutions. One outlet for such data in Canada is Digital Map Technologies Inc. (DMTI) Spatial, which offers a national repository of over one million businesses and recreational points of interest. The database is generated through CanMap Streetfiles, which includes geocodes of each point's precise location. These data are available to researchers from their university data library and Esri Canada, but primarily available to private sector and government markets. That said, the goal of the current paper is to encourage researchers to access this rich yet under-utilized data source. Each service, business, or resource in the DMTI Spatial database is assigned to a respective category using Standard Industrial Classification codes and North American Industrial Classification System codes. It is not clear, however, which is the more reliable coding criteria. We provide an overview of our review of DMTI Spatial data and take-away suggestions for using this valuable resource for future research on meso-level residential markers.