Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: a European perspective

The impact of the economic crisis has been highly asymmetric across the European regions. The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of resilience to economic crisis across European regions. Regional economic resilience was assessed based on employment changes during 2008–2013, while socioeconomic determinants were analysed pre-crisis (2002–2007). A highly heterogeneous pattern of resilience was observed within countries, while significant differences were also revealed between the continental northern-central regions and the southern periphery. A multilevel logistic regression model indicated the magnitude of country-effects on the performance of regional employment during crisis periods. Both EU-referenced and country-referenced regional resilience identified the positive effect of accessibility and the negative effect of a large manufacturing sector in the ability of regions to withstand recessionary shocks. Education and economic development level positively affected the resilience of both large and small regional European economies. Investing in education enhances the spatial homogeneity across Europe in terms of its ability to react to economic shocks. The results reveal the importance of narrowing disparities among regions and formulating targeted and differentiated regional development policies at country level, taking into consideration the size of the economy of the regions.     

韧性概念演变与区域经济韧性研究进展

区域经济韧性试图解释当冲击发生时为何部分区域能够适应恢复,实现区域经济的持续发展,而有的区域不能摆脱冲击影响,步入经济衰退轨迹。本文通过对国内外相关文献的梳理,总结了工程韧性、生态韧性和演化韧性的概念演变以及从均衡论观点到演化观点的转向,据此重新定义了区域经济韧性的概念内涵,认为区域经济韧性是系统面对冲击时,抵抗冲击影响避免脱离发展轨迹或通过适应恢复实现经济持续发展的能力,是一个不断演化的过程。探讨了区域经济韧性研究的三个理论分析方法,对关于区域经济韧性的测度和影响因素的实证研究进行了评述,强调亟需加强韧性理论研究,界定清晰概念内涵,同时加强区域经济韧性定量本土化研究,将区域经济韧性理论应用到我国老工业基地等经济衰退地区的经济振兴与转型问题中,以期对区域经济发展提供科学参考。     

Border-regional resilience in EU internal and external border areas in Finland

European border regions have witnessed a long history of remarkable mobility shocks stemming from complex ecological and economic changes and geopolitical events. The experience of near-continuous regional and global crisis has increased interest towards the idea of resilience, that is, the ability of communities and regions to adapt and cope with disturbances and transitions. Inspired by the literature of regional resilience and the evolutionary approach, this paper will examine the difference that borders and geopolitical conditions make from the perspective of regional resilience and especially ‘border-regional resilience’. Particular focus will be on irregular cross-border mobilities and consequent transitions in EU external and internal border towns, here the Finnish towns of Lappeenranta and Tornio. The study points out that the geopolitical environment and the openness of the border partly determine the regional development trajectories and the ways of coping with cross-border mobility-related changes. Although the border location entails some vulnerability, formal and informal cross-border institutions and relations of trust are of crucial importance from the perspective of border-regional resilience. The paper proposes a research agenda for studying border-regional resilience in the context of environmental, economic and social changes and geopolitical events.     

The role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions

The paper studies the role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions. Particularly, employing a nonparametric analysis, the paper demonstrates that historical adjustments of EU regions materialized by productivity improvements, primarily in the manufacturing sector and incidentally in the sectors of construction, financial and non-market services, during the period 1995–2008 secured high(er) levels of regional resilience during the economic crisis period 2008–2013. Such a finding provides implications not only for theory but also for policy. Policies aiming at boosting regional productivity and competitiveness, which through a positive regional performance of high growth rates is concealed, a well-structured and robust production restructuring, might affect regional resilience in a way that shields regional economies not only from current imbalances but also from any future downturns.     

Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain

The 2008 financial and economic crisis has led to widespread destruction of employment in Spain. Using municipality data, I examine employment growth differences between urban cores, urban hinterlands, and rural areas during the pre‐crisis period and the recession period. The data show that patterns of growth and decline have been very uneven across different types of areas. While in the boom years, hinterlands and rural areas experienced higher growth, urban core areas have done better during the recession years. I then test three strands of explanations for local growth differences: (i) the role of the local sectoral composition, (ii) the role of human capital, and (iii) the role of access to urban core areas. Estimations for employment growth in the two periods show that the crisis has altered some of the drivers of local employment growth and that human capital has been a key determinant of local resilience during the Great Recession.     

The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China

Two noted academic specialists on labor economics and population statistics of China examine the impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008-2009 on the job security of urban workers, and the ensuing repercussions for the Chinese society and economy. More specifically, they probe and determine the magnitude of urban unemployment in China in 2008 and 2009 as it appears to be reported in different segments of the country's immense labor market. A particular focus of the paper is on differences in unemployment among two groups of workers (those with urban hukou vis-à-vis rural migrant workers) with significantly different sets of rights and privileges, as well as levels of job security. The authors also provide an estimate of the urban unemployment rate in 2009 that differs from the official rate. They argue that measures toward further integration of rural and urban labor markets and reducing natural unemployment are ultimately more beneficial than short-term interventions to adjust cyclical joblessness stemming from the global economic crisis and recession.     

区域经济韧性：研究综述与展望

自金融危机以来，区域经济韧性成为了研究热点。现有文献从均衡论及演化论的视角建构了区域经济韧性的理论框架，认为区域经济韧性不仅是区域发展的结果也是区域发展的动态过程。大量实证研究关注区域发展过程，探讨了不同尺度下经济系统对冲击的抵抗力、恢复力，并分析了经济韧性的影响机理。区域经济韧性是时间维度与空间尺度的统一。现有研究多关注区域本身特性，缺乏从动态性、多主体互动性、多尺度融合视角审视区域经济韧性的形成过程。因此未来研究一方面应当在现有理论基础上与关系经济地理、管理学等领域紧密结合，更重视危机与冲击的异质性，系统揭示行为主体在区域经济韧性形成、维持过程中的重要作用；另一方面应当进一步关注中国发展背景与制度优势，重视韧性研究对经济发展深远的意义，从而增强中国经济在不确定环境下的稳定性。     

The role of exogenous and endogenous factors in the growth of regions in Central and Eastern Europe: the metropolitan/non-metropolitan divide in the pre- and post-crisis era

ABSTRACT

The aim of the paper is to analyse regional growth factors in Central and Eastern European Countries in the pre- and post-crisis era. The comparison is focused on core (metropolitan) and non-core (non-metropolitan) regions. The study found that the development processes of the analysed groups of regions were in many respects similar. Achieving a high level of development in the context of post-socialist transformation was possible mainly owing to exogenous factors such as the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) and multimodal transport accessibility. In the case of endogenous factors, the number of small- and medium-sized enterprises per capita was of cardinal importance for a high level of development, but it was no guarantee of fast growth dynamics in non-core regions. The main differences between the core and non-core regions included the role of human capital and migrations as metropolitan regions represented growth poles which trained qualified specialists and served as destinations for migrants from non-core regions. However, the share of people with tertiary education played an important role in the development process of non-core regions. The crisis strengthened the role of exogenous growth factors, that is, the role of FDI inflow as well as the role of EU funds.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

RECESSIONARY SHOCKS AND REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.K. REGIONS*

ABSTRACT We analyze the resilience of U.K. regions to employment shocks. Two basic notions of resilience are distinguished. With engineering resilience, there is an underlying stable growth path to which a regional economy rebounds following a shock. With ecological resilience, shocks can permanently affect the growth path of the regional economy. Our data set consists of quarterly employment series for 12 U.K. regions (NUTS I) for the period 1971–2010. Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model specification, we test for the relevance of (engineering) resilience of U.K. regional employment to the four recessionary shocks in our sample. It turns out that U.K. regions do indeed differ in their resilience, but that these differences mainly concern the initial resistance to these shocks and not so much the recovery stage. The SUR model does not allow shocks to have permanent effects and it also does not take the possibility of time differentiated shock spillovers between the 12 regions into account. To this end, we also estimate a vector error‐correction model (VECM) specification where employment shocks can have permanent effects and where also interregional employment linkages are included. We find that employment shocks typically have permanent effects when it concerns the own‐region effects. Permanent effects can also be found for the impact on other regions but the interregional effects are typically only significant for nearby regions.