Turnout,preferential voting and vote flows in the E.U. election1

ABSTRACT

This article aims at focusing on four main features of the European elections that were held on 26 May 2019. Firstly, it analyses electoral turnout, both from a diachronic and a geographical point of view. Secondly, it presents electoral data and identifies winners and losers of the vote, not only by comparing 2019 E.U. results to 2014 E.U. results and 2018 political results, but especially focusing on the territorial dimension of electoral dynamics. Thirdly, it discusses flows of vote in five Italian cities (Brescia, Turin, Florence, Naples, Palermo), in order to give a clearer picture of how citizens (potentially) changed their electoral preferences from 2018 to 2019. Fourthly, it focuses on preferential vote, with the aim of distinguishing between parties characterized by ‘micro-personalization’ and ‘macro-personalization’. On many of these aspects, the 2019 European elections in Italy can be understood on the basis of the well-known ‘second-order election theory’. Yet, there are also interesting empirical findings that deviate from this pattern, among which the electoral success of the League – one of the two parties in government at the moment of the elections – merits further attention and can be mostly explained on the basis of government political action. That same electoral success, in addition, represented one of the causes that led to the end of the so-called yellow-green government in August 2019.     

Preservation of and Access to South Seas Photographs

In August 2001, in a constitutional reform of potentially far-reaching consequences, Papua New Guinea's parliament voted to change the country's electoral system. As a result of this decision, all elections held after 2002 will be conducted under a system of preferential voting. A similar system was used for Papua New Guinea's first three elections between 1964 and 1972, before the change to a first-past-the-post system at independence in 1975. This paper, drawing on a combination of historical records, election studies and recent observations, looks at the historical impact of both electoral systems in Papua New Guinea, and at the different kinds of political behaviour encouraged by them, including their divergent influences upon election campaigning, candidature rates, support levels for successful candidates, electoral violence and the party system. It concludes by examining the potential consequences of a return to preferential voting in Papua New Guinea.     

A Review of “Decision Points”

Abstract

A large body scholarship demonstrates that the population size of an electoral district affects elections in important ways, yet little is known about the implications of population size for campaigning and fundraising. I posit that the challenges of running a campaign in a populous electorate require candidates to focus their fundraising efforts on the wealthy. I analyze campaign finance records published by the Federal Election Commission during the 2006–2014 Senate elections and find that Senate candidates running in large states receive fewer donations per capita from in-state donors, but they tend to receive larger donations on average and more money from contributions of $1,500 and above. In sum, candidates running in populous states appear to rely upon comparably smaller pools of wealthy constituents writing larger checks to finance their campaigns. In the context of rising campaign costs, these findings suggest that constituency population growth may exacerbate representational inequalities between citizens and contribute to the growing influence of the wealthy in U.S. politics.     

A Review of “Presidential Leadership in Political Time: Reprise and Reappraisal”

Abstract

Existing scholarship on the electoral careers of U.S. Senate appointees has made progress toward identifying the determinants of appointee success and failure in the electoral arena. This study builds on these analyses by considering the universe of Senate appointees and examining each stage of the electoral process, including the decision to run. In addition, appointee personal characteristics, including gender and dynastic familial relationships, which have not been investigated in past work are examined here. The results demonstrate the centrality of personal attributes, specifically previous elective office and familial connections, to the electoral fate of appointees. These findings have implications for governors who make appointments, the role of family dynasties in elections, and the elements of incumbency that help to create electoral advantage.     

Cleavages,electoral geography,and the territorialization of political parties in the Republic of Georgia

Abstract

This article examines the territorialization of party support in the Republic of Georgia as political parties in Georgia try to territorialize by aligning themselves to existing societal cleavages. The article specifically focuses on the case of the United National Movement (UNM), which from its inception in 2001 was led by Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, and was the country’s governing party from 2004 to 2012. While in power, the UNM enjoyed nationwide support. After being unseated, instead of nationalizing countrywide, the UNM has based its support in national elections on specific areas populated by ethno-linguistic and religious minorities. By analyzing the results of the most recent five national elections and the 2014 national census, the article shows that continuing support for the UNM and the subsequent territorialization of the party is dictated by these existing societal cleavages.     

Dilemmas in the Construction of a Socialist Law-based State in Vietnam: Electoral Integrity and Reform

Abstract

The Vietnamese party-state has been seeking to develop the concept of a socialist law-based state in an effort to provide a legal-rational justification for its rule. One of the key pillars in the construction of a socialist law-based state has been electoral governance. Unlike the popular understanding proliferated by the Western media about the meaning of elections in authoritarian countries, I argue that elections are of significance to the political life of the Vietnamese party-state even without pressure from any political opposition. This is because there is a growing need for the party-state to make the elections work more effectively to bolster its legitimacy. Along with the process of promoting the concept of a Vietnamese socialist law-based state, continuous reforms of the electoral integrity system have been considered and cautiously implemented. An important aspect of the reform is to ensure the values, purposes and duties for which power is entrusted to or held by electoral institutions are honoured. It is argued that the process of building a more integrated national system of rules and values has been set in motion but many setbacks have occurred from time to time, making it a dynamic process.     

Location and Political Choice in Post-Unification Berlin: Explaining the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) Vote, 1999 and 2001

A paper examining the factors contributing to the growing electoral support for the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) in post-unification elections in the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany) uses detailed data for Berlin's electoral districts to elucidate the micro-geography of the East-West divide in the PDS vote. Using two methods of ecological inference, King's and entropy maximization, the authors show that the explanation of the PDS support in Berlin elections in 1999 and 2001 can be attributed to the "Mauer in den Köpfen" (wall in people's heads) that is coincident with the division of the city along the former Berlin Wall. This geographic division far exceeds any socio-demographic explanation of the PDS vote. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O10, R10. 9 figures, 4 tables, 98 references.     

The Democratic Party and the restructuring of the Italian party system

Abstract

Out of a quickly performed merger between the Left Democrats and the Daisy, a new party has made its appearance in Italy: the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico – PD). In the summer of 2007 three candidates, Walter Veltroni, Rosy Bindi and Enrico Letta campaigned in order to convince sympathizers and supporters of that, yet non-existing party, that they were worthy of the office of Secretary of the PD. The election of Veltroni contributed to the already existing tensions within the centre-left governmental coalition that led to the demise of Prodi's government and to early elections. In April 2008, though receiving 33 per cent of the vote, the Democratic Party suffered a serious defeat. This article explores the reasons of the defeat and analyses its consequences on the restructuring of the Italian party system and the future of the Italian political system. Unless the Democratic Party is capable of finding an adequate organizational model and of expanding its electoral support beyond the areas of the traditional entrenchment of the former Communist party, the centre-right seems destined to guide Italian politics for some time to come.     

From exchange to voice. Voting in southern Italy

The article focuses on the Italian general election held on 4 March 2018, which was notable for the surprising results in southern Italy. These results will be analysed by looking at two dimensions of electoral behaviour: on one hand, participation and volatility, on the other the success of the protest parties, the Five Star Movement (M.5.S.) and the League. These features will be considered in relation to the territorial distribution of the vote. More specifically, in the 2018 election participation was exceptionally high, especially in the south which in some regions saw electors returning to the polls. But electoral volatility is still high. Both factors affected the extraordinary success of new protest parties and collapse of the traditional parties. Traditionally in the south the vote has gone to moderate and pro-government parties, but this time in all constituencies the M.5.S., an ‘eccentric’, protest or populist party-movement, which in many cases took over 40 per cent of the votes, with a peak of 50 per cent in Campania and Sicily. Further, the wave of protest votes favoured another party with no previous support in this geographical area, the League. It may be too soon to say whether these changes in the form and dynamics of the party system are long-lasting and able to achieve a lasting change in the political spectrum, but so far the outcome of election has given a further push to the radicalization of both electoral demand and supply.     

Citizen Emperor. Napoleon in Power

Abstract

The recent Italian elections have taken place under a new proportional system, but have confirmed and even strengthened the main trends already at work since the beginning of Italy's political transition. The center-left coalition has won by the slightest margin, thus ensuring the third alternation in power since 1994. The system's extreme competitiveness underscores its full-fledged bipolar format, the eclipse of center parties, and the continuing electoral stagnation and political integration of extreme left and right. These trends coexist with a party system fragmentation whose level is within the standard of other European systems of moderate pluralism and this fragmentation is, moreover, kept at bay by the coordination ensured by the majority bonus seats provided through the electoral law. At the same time, the main parties show persistently low levels of structural consolidation, that tend to hinder the stability and effectiveness of coalition cabinets. This problem might paradoxically have been sharpened by systemic competitiveness through a negative impact on coalitional discipline and the maximization of destabilizing effects of the smallest changes in electoral and parliamentary behavior.     

When populists meet technocrats. The Italian innovation in government formation

This article provides an analysis of how the 4 March Italian electoral results have affected the formation of the government. Numerically there existed four possible governing coalitions: Five Star Movement (M.5.S.) plus Centre-Right; M.5.S. plus Democratic Party; Centre-Right plus Democratic Party; M.5.S. plus League. Once the resigning secretary of the Democratic Party decided that his party had to go and remain in the opposition and the M.5.S. declared that they would not enter any coalition that included Silvio Berlusconi, politically only one coalition remained feasible. After a long process of negotiations revealing that their platforms could converge, Di Maio’s M.5.S. and Salvini’s League reached an agreement, identified the head of the government, drafted a list of Ministers. The president of the republic constitutionally legitimate refusal to appoint one of those ministers because of his anti-Euro and anti-European stances seemed to wreck the agreement. Also, in order to avoid a non-partisan government and, probably, snap elections, the M.5.S. and the League downgraded the controversial minister and proceed to the formation of the government led by neophyte law professor Giuseppe Conte. In the first week of June an unprecedented government duly received the confidence of the Italian parliament.     

New Labour,new electoral system,new electoral geographies?: A review of proposed constitutional changes in the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom electoral system remained virtually unchanged throughout the twentieth century but three reports (two of them commissioned by the Labour government elected in 1997) published in late 1998 propose significant changes in: the administration of elections, with specific reference to increasing turnout rates; the funding of political parties and electoral campaigns; and the electoral system itself—with a recommendation for a system that is broadly proportional but retains the link between (most) MPs and single-member constituencies. This paper reviews those reports, relates them to the geography of electoral behaviour in the UK, and explores the geographical implications of their major recommendations.     

The Italian political system after the 9 – 10 April 2006 elections

Abstract

All recent Italian elections have produced important electoral consequences. In this brief introduction, the author highlights some of the problems, difficulties and perspectives for the Italian political system following the electoral victory of the centre-left. More precisely, he suggests that there are two complex issues in need of being analyzed and politically tackled: the revisions to be introduced into the Italian Constitution and the transformation of some Italian parties and the reorganization of the party system. In conclusion, at least in this phase, the Italian political system is bound to remain in a situation that can still be defined as an ongoing political and institutional transition.     

Italian candidates under the Rosato mixed electoral system. In search of personal votes in the plurality tier?

The Rosato law has established a new electoral system featuring single-member districts (S.M.Ds) along with a prevailing proportional tier. S.M.Ds are typically associated with individual incentives to cultivate a personal vote and with a more direct link between representatives and their local constituency. This article investigates patterns of personalized votes in the Italian elections of March 2018 by analysing voting data about candidates for the Chamber of Deputies who ran in the plurality tier. Results reveal that only a minor – although not negligible – portion of Italian voters cast their ballot for an individual candidate only, and that these votes had almost no impact on the outcomes of competition in S.M.Ds. Moreover, some interesting differences across geographical areas, parties and coalitions emerge in the use of personalized vote.     

Poland Divided: Spatial Differences in the June 2003 EU Accession Referendum

Results of the June 2003 referendum on Poland's accession to the European Union are assessed by a noted American electoral geographer and a Polish historian, in terms of voter turnout, percentage "yes" vote, and percentage of eligible voters casting yes ballots. They then proceed to test the association between voting patterns and four basic variables that, according to pre-referendum surveys, would influence the patterns regionally: general east-west location within Poland (and proximity to the pre-existing EU border), rural-urban residence, occupation (in agriculture vs. industry/services), and unemployment/income levels. In concluding, the authors note possible implications for subsequent elections in Poland. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O18, R10. 2 figures, 5 tables, 35 references.     

Do Lawyers Get More Votes?

ABSTRACT

In many western democracies, law has been the dominant occupational background of politicians. This raises the question whether lawyers get more votes when they run for election compared to non-lawyers. To our knowledge, this question has not been examined empirically over an extended period of time. Our study aims to fill this lacuna. We collected longitudinal data about the careers of all candidates in Canadian federal elections from 1921 to 2015. Our dataset is composed of about 32,000 observations including the occupation and electoral performance of every candidate who ran for office. Our analysis shows that lawyers do get more votes but that their personal electoral boost is very small.     

Shades of Orange: The Electoral Geography of Ukraine's 2004 Presidential Elections

Two American geographers and noted specialists on the electoral geography of post-Soviet Russia and Ukraine describe and analyze the three rounds of Ukraine's pivotal and highly contested presidential elections in late 2004. In an effort to shed light on the underlying demographic and socio-economic correlates of the vote (e.g., age, income, urban/rural residence, language/ethnicity), the authors pay special attention to changes among the rounds, providing background to widespread allegations of electoral fraud in round two (first runoff). Finally, they summarize results of bivariate and multivariate regression analyses that reveal which among the various correlates contribute most to explaining differences in the vote. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O18, R10. 6 figures, 5 tables, 26 references.     

The 2019 European Elections: a ‘second-order’ vote with ‘first-order’ effects

ABSTRACT

In this article we provide a general interpretation of the results of the 2019 elections of the European Parliament in Italy. The Italian case contains several elements that are, at the same time, ambivalent and interesting, especially if observed in a larger, European-wide comparative perspective. Besides a general interpretation of the vote for the European Parliament, the article discuss also the consequences of the elections results for the transformations of the Italian party system and the patterns of government formation in a context characterized by an increasing process of political integration in a multilevel political system. Finally, we discuss the trend of Euroscepticism in the Italian public opinion and the role played by radical or ‘sovranist’ parties in promoting a feeling of distrust or detachment towards the European Union.