The Perpetuation of Regime Security in Gulf Cooperation Council States: A Multi‐Lens Approach

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been engaging in diversification efforts, yet the types of efforts suggest that the primary interest is regime security. Regional foreign policy is complex; hence we propose a multi‐lens approach to analyze overlapping and complementary political, economic, and social forces. The international political economy of hydrocarbons demonstrates the similarities among GCC states, regional dynamics illustrate interstate relations and similar patterns, while economic diversification suggests individual state trajectories and comparative and competitive patterns. By outlining the contemporary context for GCC states, we argue that low oil prices, regional dependence on hydrocarbons, and trends in economic diversification efforts signal GCC states' preference to reinforce their rentier systems with alternative state revenue streams. GCC states' diversification into new markets and sectors and use of state‐owned enterprises in microcompetitions indicate a new search for alternative revenue streams and prestige, which in turn are used to assure the perpetuation of regime security. This finding sets trajectories and implications for the region, specifically economic stagnation and supplementary diversification processes.     

Do We Need a GCC Bank to Facilitate the Economic Turnaround of the GCC Region?

Amidst the ongoing crisis of plummeting oil prices, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) terrain has become a haunt of economists and financial analysts to tackle the ongoing challenges in the region. GCC constituents are gearing themselves with a robust political will that they hope could result in a turnaround of their economy by adopting a policy of economic diversification in nonoil‐based sectors. With this background supported by extensive qualitative scan of literature pertaining to the reforms proposed by the six members of the GCC to drive the economy forward amidst ongoing economic crisis, this article seeks to underscore the prospect of a shared initiative by the GCC constituents in institutionalizing a GCC bank as a potent innovative solution which may serve to provide an edifice for pushing forth the region's economy in nonhydrocarbon segments contingent upon the individual needs of the GCC constituents. As an exploratory study, this paper sheds light on these issues besides discussing the fundamental functions of the GCC bank.     

The Evolution of Administrative Systems in Kuwait,Saudi Arabia,and Qatar: The Challenge of Implementing Market Based Reforms

The dramatic plunge in oil prices since the second half of 2014 poses serious challenges for the oil dependent states of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and revives their interest in accelerating the implementation of market‐based reforms such as outsourcing, privatization, and public–private partnerships. This article challenges the assumption that these reforms offer a panacea for administrative change, and argues that while they might appear to be a solution to the growing fiscal constraints in the three Gulf states, considerable administrative, cultural, economic, and political barriers hinder their effective implementation. The conclusion reached is that western labels of market‐based reforms offer limited options for the three states in the absence of strong political will to make fundamental reforms that could alter the state–society relations. It is suggested that further theorization of administrative change is required in cultural contexts, such as the Gulf region, where administration and society are intertwined, and where trying to minimize the role and size of the state, poses a direct threat to the political legitimacy of the ruling elites.     

Punishment Policy in the American States from 1890 to 2008: Convergence,Divergence, Synchronous Change,and Feed‐Forward Effects

This analysis of the patterns of change in the use of incarceration by the American states from 1890 through 2008 focuses on multiple themes particularly relevant to an understanding of policy arenas in which the social constructions of target populations play an important role. Specifically, the study examines whether the states have adopted more similar incarceration levels over time (converged), whether they tend to change in the same direction at the same time (synchronous change), and whether they tend to stay in the same relative positions vis‐à‐vis one another, such that the historical policy position has long‐term implications for later policy positions (“feed‐forward” effects). The results indicate that, in spite of a century of social, political, and economic integration, the policy positions of the states have not exhibited a sustained convergence toward a common level of incarceration, but have undergone cycles, with some periods of convergence followed by periods of divergence. Change has generally been synchronous—as states tend to move in the same direction at the same time as if propelled by national forces even though incarceration levels are determined by state and local policy and the use of discretion by criminal justice officials. The results also indicate a profound “feed‐forward” effect in that the position of the states vis‐à‐vis one another historically has substantial predictive power for their position in subsequent years.     

The Gulf war and the new world order: Economic dimensions of a problematic relationship

This paper investigates the durability of the economic underpinnings of the ‘new world order’ allegedly conceived in the Gulf war. Four substantive arguments are advanced: that the mechanism for allied burden‐sharing born in the Gulf war is inferior to its antecedents and inherently more political; that the historically acute economic vulnerability of America's allies to higher oil prices no longer exists; that the prospects for stable and low oil prices through the long run have not been enhanced; and that significant political opportunities for stability in the oil market are evaporating.     

WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question “What is an oil shock?” and has concluded that oil‐price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the U.S. economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil‐price shocks by addressing the question “Where is an oil shock?” the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil‐price shocks—they are affected by positive shocks only—the rest experience either negative shocks only (five states), both positive and negative shocks (five states), or neither shock (five states).     

The Rise and Demise of the Middle East Quest for Reforms, 2011–2017

Six years have passed since Arab masses in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen revolted against oppressive, corrupt, and autocratic regimes. These and lesser revolts in Morocco and Jordan — as well as muted ones in the oil producing Gulf States — shared common goals and themes: justice, dignity, economic, political, and social reforms (el‐Gingihy, 2017 ). The revolutionaries wanted to end government bloating and oppressive bureaucracies; and political and massive public corruption by the ruling classes; and instead, involve citizens in the participation in governance and policymaking. The oil‐rich countries were quick to shower their nationals with salary bonuses and more generous subsidies. The poorer Arab countries were quick to unleash their violent security forces on the masses in order to quell the uprisings using brute military force, including using poison gas in Syria, and operating mass killings of demonstrators at Rab‘a Square in Cairo, Egypt. With the exception of Tunisia, the rest of the Arab countries reverted to oppressive regimes, or civil war chaos, as was the case in Libya and Yemen. The United States, which hailed the Arab uprisings during the reign of the Obama Administration, has changed course under the isolationist Trump Administration, which looks upon all Arabs and Muslim people and nations as potential supporters of what the current administration labels as Muslim terrorism. Along with an analysis of events in the region, this article also reviews the most recent books published which deal with the Arab revolts, and which include what lies ahead for the Arab world under the new rulers who replaced old regimes. It will also analyze the Arab countries’ response to a Trump Administration that seems to adopt political isolationism, while at the same time, showing an obvious inclination for personal and national business involvement in the region, such as the recent opening of a Trump golf course in the United Arab Emirates, and the appointment of former MOBIL CEO Executive Rex Tillerson, who has strong business ties with Russia and the oil‐producing Gulf States.     

国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。．     

The Gulf Cooperation Council states: Crystallization of the regional cooperation and alliances amid dwindling resources

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states can be divided into two main camps in terms of hydrocarbon endowment per capita which can partially account for differences in policy directions. Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE (the rich triplet) have small populations while having large hydrocarbon (oil and natural gas) endowments compared to Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE have been effectively using their excess wealth in the form of investment for domestic economic diversification and overseas investments through their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Therefore, the rich triplet perceives the upcoming threat of decarbonization of the world's energy system lighter than the remaining members of the GCC in view of their prosperity. The expected decrease in oil demand and revenue within the next decade will put further strain on the relationship between these states.     

The Intersection of Citizenship Status,STEM Education,and Expected Labor Market Participation in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Citizenship status influences the impact of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education on the youth labor market participation in the Arabian Gulf. This research examines the relationship between citizenship status, STEM education, and expected labor market participation in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and examines the intervening effects of information and communication technology (ICT) based instruction, specifically. The 2011 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) provides both labor market expectations and STEM education data from all participating GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Results suggest that ICT‐enhanced STEM education differently influences the human capital development of Gulf national and expatriate youth. For example, GCC nationals do not emphasize STEM education as an avenue for employment, while expatriate youth do. In particular, as Gulf national youths' parents' education level increases, students are less likely to think they need to do well in science to get the job they want. This is indicative of a broader trend in the Gulf nations to rely more on non‐education‐related factors such as family influence or connections for social, economic, and political mobility. In contrast, results also suggest that while STEM education contributes to potential private sector labor market participation among Gulf national youth, expatriate youth are more likely to expect to need or use STEM in the labor market.     

Heading west? Georgia's Euro‐Atlantic path

Events in Ukraine in 2014 are likely to transform the presence and role of western institutions such as NATO in the post‐Soviet area. The crisis has starkly revealed the limits of their influence within Russia's ‘zone of privileged interest’, as well as the lack of internal unity within these organizations vis‐à‐vis relations with Moscow and future engagement with the area. This will have long‐term implications for the South Caucasus state of Georgia, whose desire for integration into the Euro‐Atlantic community remains a key priority for its foreign and security policy‐makers. This article examines the main motivators behind Georgia's Euro‐Atlantic path and its foreign policy stance, which has remained unchanged for over a decade despite intense pressure from Russia. It focuses on two aspects of Georgia's desire for integration with European and Euro‐Atlantic structures: its desire for security and the belief that only a western alignment can guarantee its future development, and the notion of Georgia's ‘European’ identity. The notion of ‘returning’ to Europe and the West has become a common theme in Georgian political and popular discourse, reflecting the belief of many in the country that they are ‘European’. This article explores this national strategic narrative and argues that the prevailing belief in a European identity facilitates, rather than supersedes, the central role of national interests in Georgian foreign policy.     

Industrial Heritage: Valorising the Spatial–Temporal Dynamics of Another Hong Kong Story

This paper challenges current perspectives on Hong Kong heritage that are based predominantly on a dichotomous juxtaposition of traditional Chineseness vis‐à‐vis post‐colonial romanticism, and argues for a deeper appreciation of its industrial history and identity. Textured narratives are proposed that highlight the socio‐economic relationships that were/are essential components of the industrial (hi)story. Specifically, the paper identifies the time/space dimension as unique, and hence it should be valorised using context‐sensitive, carefully thought‐through and executed approaches. The paper presents an ‘other Hong Kong heritage story’ that foregrounds the compressed time–space nature of the city’s industrial history, the spatial organisation of manufacturing, and the dynamic spatial stretch that has been taken by the industrialisation process. Furthermore, a stretching of governance space for the identification, (re)presentation and conservation of heritage using a participatory approach is proposed. In the face of rapid deindustrialisation and pressure for urban renewal, prompt, well‐conceptualised and time/space‐sensitive efforts to valorise, preserve and manage this fast‐disappearing heritage in Hong Kong are vital.     

WHAT DO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEXES TEACH US ABOUT STATE POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH?*

ABSTRACT State business climate indexes capture state policies that might affect economic growth. State rankings in these indexes vary wildly, raising questions about what the indexes measure and which policies are important for growth. Indexes focused on productivity do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs predict growth of employment, wages, and output. Analysis of sub‐indexes of the tax‐and‐cost‐related indexes points to two policy factors associated with faster growth: less spending on welfare and transfer payments; and more uniform and simpler corporate tax structures. But factors beyond the control of policy have a stronger relationship with economic growth.     

Factors underlying inflation in Russia 2000–2015

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of continuing inflation in Russia in the period from 2000 to 2015. Although factors causing high inflation changed during this period, such factors as money supply, wages, gas and electricity prices, and ruble exchange rate have been essential factors when analyzing inflation in Russia. This paper focuses on gas and electricity prices that represent state-regulated prices in natural monopoly sectors and that have been factors of price increases specific to Russia. They have been raised by the state in order to narrow the gap between their domestic and international prices. It is suggested that there was a turnaround in 2008 when the role of each inflation factor changed significantly. Concerning the rebound of inflation rate since 2014, the overwhelming influence of depreciation of the ruble is indicated. Institutional factors such as the monopolistic structure of the economy that have kept the inflation rate high in Russia are also suggested.     

Nationalism,party political discourse and Scottish independence: comparing discursive visions of Scotland's constitutional status

This article critically examines the predominant narratives which emanated from party political discourse in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Utilising a methodological approach centring on political discourse analysis (Fairclough and Fairclough 2012), this paper analyses party manifestos and constitutional policy documents produced by the three largest political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament, namely, the pro‐independence Scottish National Party, and two pro‐union parties, Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. The emergent discourse of each party is interrogated by drawing upon pertinent theoretical concepts from previous academic analyses of Scottish nationalism, with particular attention given to those which have deployed modernist and ethnosymbolist theoretical approaches when analysing the Scottish context. This facilitates a critical reflection on the contrasting and nuanced narratives of the Scottish nation's past and future espoused by each political party vis‐à‐vis modernist and ethnosymbolist theory, illustrating the ways in which contrasting theorisations of nationalism are empirically tangible within political discourse and are thus not simply theoretical abstractions.     

Assessing Socio‐Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts and Environmental Hazards in New South Wales and Queensland,Australia

This article systematically reviews and synthesises academic, peer‐reviewed literature to assess the state of knowledge concerning socio‐economic vulnerability to climate change impacts and environmental hazards in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. It focuses upon empirical research that identifies socio‐economic factors associated with vulnerable subpopulations. Using systematic review methods, 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles are analysed according to their general characteristics, the methods used, and the factors reported to be associated with socio‐economic vulnerability. This body of evidence reveals that (1) the majority of the knowledge about socio‐economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland has only recently emerged; (2) more knowledge has been published about Queensland; and (3) extreme temperature is the most researched environmental hazard. Despite increased research activity over time, the number of factors repeatedly demonstrated to influence socio‐economic vulnerability is small. Age, gender, place of residence, and pre‐existing illness were the most commonly reported factors, although the influence of these factors upon socio‐economic vulnerability is complex. There is scope to extend the empirical research base across a broader range of climate‐related hazards and to better link findings from the domains of climate change vulnerability and population health.     

A Brave New World,or the Same Old Story with New Characters?

Capitalism has always been a global system, but not in fixed ways. Different national powers have emerged and become dominant over the centuries, but the fundamental processes underlying the uneven development of global capitalism have not altered; they continue to be driven by imperialism — the struggle of large capital over economic territory of various kinds. Since the late 1960s, only the East Asian region has shown notable increases in its share of global GDP, and for the last two decades this has been dominated by the rise of China. This is directly related to the ability of the Chinese state to control the economy and to implement heterodox policies with very high investment rates. However, the Chinese case is exceptional: few other developing countries have followed a trajectory anything like that of China. Meanwhile, internal inequalities have increased across the world, as the bargaining power of capital vis‐à‐vis labour has increased dramatically in every country. This reflects the changed form of 21^st century imperialism, which relies increasingly on the international legal and regulatory architecture as fortified by various multilateral, plurilateral and bilateral agreements that establish the hegemony of global capital in different ways.     

The Specialized Cities of the Gulf Cooperation Council: A Case Study of a Distinct Type of Policy Innovation and Diffusion

This article examines a new phenomenon in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) referred to as specialized cities (SC). These cities, in addition to being new towns, implement innovations in selected policy areas. This article goes beyond describing the spread of SC to answering a broader question: what motivates a GCC country to adopt such policy innovation? After a quantitative overview of the phenomenon, three cases have been selected to cover three main policy areas: energy, health care, and education, in Abu Dhabi Masdar City, Dubai Healthcare City, and Qatar Education City. A preliminary analysis of each of the cases is followed by a comparative approach that aims at discovering similarities and differences, as well as developing the basis for a preliminary analytical model that explains the driving factors behind these innovations. The country adoption of a policy innovation and its diffusion are mainly the results of geographical proximity and similarity, as these proximate countries tend to have similar economic aspects and common social problems that lead to similar policy action effects. Regional competition and positive reputational mechanisms are also particularly strong determinants for diffusion. The findings suggest that in the GCC region a diffusion of the phenomena is occurring, rather than that of a specific type of SC.     

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND URBAN–SUBURBAN DISPARITIES

ABSTRACT This paper develops a spatially explicit model to examine how urban and suburban communities evolve differently with changes in local economic fundamentals such as rising income or falling commuting costs in the metropolitan area. The model highlights the importance of environmental amenities and the economy of scale in the provision of public services as determinants of urban spatial structure. Results suggest that urban sprawl, income segregation, and jurisdictional disparities are driven by the same economic conditions and thus tend to co‐exist. Rising incomes or falling commuting costs for high‐income households in a metropolitan area tend to increase land prices and public services in every community, while rising incomes or falling commuting costs for low‐income households can have the opposite effects.