东亚经济一体化现状与趋势分析

本文以1985-2005年的经济数据和相关理论模型分析为基础,较为系统地探讨了东亚经济一体化的进展和未来趋势,并着重从东亚区域内贸易发展与贸易结构、资本流动、区域经济的货币金融相关度、区域一体化的福利效应和推进一体化的制度安排等方面进行了定量分析和政策探讨。     

The contested rescaling of economic governance in East Asia: a special issue

The special issue this article opens engages with an apparent conundrum that has often puzzled observers of East Asian politics—why, despite the region's considerable economic integration, multilateral economic governance institutions remain largely underdeveloped. The authors argue that this ‘regionalism problématique’ has led to the neglect of prior and more important questions pertaining to how patterns of economic governance, beyond the national scale, are emerging in East Asia and why. In this special issue, the contributors shift analytic focus onto social and political struggles over the scale and instruments of economic governance in East Asia. The contributions identify and explain the emergence of a wide variety of regional modes of economic governance often neglected by the scholarship or erroneously viewed as stepping stones towards ‘deeper’ multilateralism.     

China and East Asia: An Appraisal of Regional Economic Integration

Three Taiwan-based economists evaluate regional economic integration in East Asia, using trade indicators to analyze the degree of trade concentration among East Asian nations, and employing the gravity model to identify key factors influencing bilateral trade flows among them. China is expected to play a key role in East Asia's economic development, and empirical analysis for the period 1990-2005 indicates that East Asia has already evolved into a trading block, expected to become one of three dominant blocks in the global economy. The study, which highlights the key role played by geographical distance and market size, suggests that the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for East Asian trade will remain limited in the future. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F15, F31, O53, P33. 7 tables, 41 references.     

中东过度城市化与社会稳定

城市化是世界各国经济社会发展的必由之路,但二战后中东国家的城市化发展模式与西方发达国家城市化发展的历史经验大不相同,实行的是以西方城市化为参照目标的赶超战略,导致严重的过度城市化现象。中东过度城市化的畸形发展引发一系列城市化问题,并对中东地区的社会稳定构成重要影响,体现在过度城市化孕育着不稳定的社会心理;过度城市化危及社会秩序稳定;过度城市化对城市社会结构产生影响,扩大底层社会的基础。     

China's Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Middle East

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims at connecting the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa through a combination of infrastructure projects and soft‐power programs. All of the six land bridges and maritime routes under the BRI extend westward, mostly passing through Central Asia and the Middle East on land or by sea. Cooperation with countries in these regions will, according to China's design, meet its domestic energy needs, and grow the country's economy. China recognizes, however, that in Central Asia and the Middle East, the risks posed by what it calls the “Three Evils” — terrorism, extremism, and separatism can impact the success of the BRI. They can also impact stability in its own adjacent areas, including Xinjiang. Therefore, in concert with the BRI, China is also identifying and deploying bilateral and multilateral diplomatic mechanisms aimed at security coordination with BRI countries in these two volatile regions. This article provides an overview of BRI developments in the two regions and examines some of the diplomatic mechanisms China is using to coordinate security and reduce risks.     

试析冷战在中东的分期和特点

中东在美苏冷战中具有重要意义。中东的冷战可划为四个阶段:美国开始取代英法在中东的势力,苏联实现突破的努力失败;阿拉伯民族主义进入高潮,英法基本退出中东,美苏展开激烈角逐;英国彻底退出中东,苏联影响进一步增长,中东呈现不战不和局面;美国促成中东和平进程,苏联在阿拉伯世界的影响衰落。冷战在中东的主要特点如下:中东是除东欧外非两大阵营国家唯一与超级大国苏联有陆地接壤的地区,是美国遏制战略的前沿阵地;中东是冷战的发源地之一;中东成为美苏激烈争夺的地区,双方各有自己的战略;中东的局部战争和地区冲突延绵不断,并与冷战相互交织,而后者对阿拉伯世界的影响有限;冷战与中东起伏不定的民族主义相互影响;中东在冷战中诞生了高度敌视西方的极端伊斯兰主义。     

Roads to Inequality: Infrastructure and Historically Grown Regional Differences in the Markham Valley,Papua New Guinea

Roads are one of the most salient symbols of development and modernity for rural citizens of Papua New Guinea (PNG). Multinational corporations, members of parliament, and villagers frequently point to roads as a key to development. However, while roads routinely improve the incomes of those connected, many of their effects are far less scrutable. Here, we examine the economic and social consequences of two roads, the Wau‐Bulolo Highway and Highlands Highway, for two villages in PNG's Morobe Province, and consider the processes that make their outcomes so different. Tracing the history of the two highways and considering a contrasting pair of case‐studies, we explore how roads simultaneously bolster income and drive interregional economic divergence. We demonstrate how the spatial and historical contexts the Highways run through, coupled with the relationships of patronage and dependence they rely on, produce contingent social outcomes and shape local ambivalence towards the outcomes of roads.     

海湾战争与土耳其中东外交政策评析

20世纪40年代以来土耳其奉行亲西方,尤其是亲美的一边倒外交政策,土耳其中东外交服务于其西方战略,长期以中立和不介入为主要特征。20世纪90年代世界政治格局的变化使得土耳其必须重新调整其中东外交政策,海湾战争为土耳其重新实践其外交政策提供了机遇,土耳其在中东开始采取积极、主动的新型外交政策。海湾战争成为土耳其中东外交的分水岭。海湾战争中,土耳其积极介入中东事务的政策与土耳其亲西方的外交政策恰好吻合;伊拉克战争则表明土耳其中东外交与其亲西方外交之间的不协调性。     

日本在“东亚共同体”建设中面临的困境

“东亚共同体”构想是一度作为东亚经济牵引车的日本酝酿已久的重大经济外交方针,但这一构想却因在现实中面临着诸多困境而在实践中举步维艰。日本亚洲认同意识的摇摆不定、东亚地区政治安全机制的匮乏、对美优先的经济政策方针和东亚区域经济结构性障等都成为束缚日本推动“东亚共同体”构想的重要羁绊,束缚着日本“东亚共同体”建设的实践。     

Media and Ideology in the Middle East: A Critical Discourse Analysis

This study explores the ideologization of media discourse in the Middle East through investigating political influences over leading media corporations in the region. A critical discourse analysis was applied to news reports issued by prominent Middle Eastern media giants Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya. The research data included eight news articles from both media outlets. Thus, four articles from each corporation have been studied and analyzed in an effort to realize the objectives of the study at hand. Blass’s Manipulative Strategies… and van Dijk’s Ideological Square… constituted primary methodological instruments within the framework of this research. The findings indicate an explicit impact of local political agendas on the discourse and editorial policies of each of the studied media corporations, which emerge in violation with the claimed journalistic commitment to objectivity and impartiality in terms of news reporting.     

区域东亚与知识“东亚”

"东亚"既是一个空间性概念——即地理性、地域性的概念,又是一个时间性的概念——即历史性的和意识形态的概念。现代性的介入,使得"东亚"成为一个需要不断重新界定和检验的概念。区域东亚是知识"东亚"的理解和阐释对象,知识"东亚"是区域东亚在理论和知识上的抽象和提升。区域东亚在结构上具有封闭性、多元性的特征,在功能上又具有流变性和开放性的特征。知识"东亚"的命题集中反映了知识界的"中心-边缘"结构、各种知识背后的意识形态竞争和权力诉求。现代性和东亚的关系并不是一种单向度的"冲击-回应"关系,而是一种双向的相互建构的共生关系。     

Trajectories of Development: International Heritage Management of Archaeology in the Middle East and North Africa

Archaeology and material heritage are increasingly being used for development projects aimed at producing economic growth and reducing poverty. I am interested in how these projects construct particular ‘developmental’ visions of heritage, orienting and circumscribing relationships both with the past and contemporary social contexts. Here I address these processes as developmental technologies that produce poverty as a ‘local’ affair, in need of intervention, set in contrast to the traveling and translational abilities of international expertise in heritage management and development. I trace the expansion of this expertise across the Middle East and North Africa region, in a variety of contexts where material heritage is mobilized to reduce poverty. Importantly, the question of the economic value of heritage is necessarily placed center-stage in such projects. I argue that as archaeologists we need to engage with the economic value of material heritage, in order to start examining how exactly material heritage works in the world: to what ends and results, in what contexts, who gains to profit, and who suffers.     

抗战胜利前后中间党派对民主的诠释：以经济民主为中心

加世纪40年代,中间党派及自由知识分子为反对国民党垄断国家资源的一党专政体制,提出了融政治民主、经济民主、教育民主、国际民主于一炉的社会民主主义理论。这种民主观试图扩大民主的范围,其目标是社会方方面面皆民主化,以保障人权和实现社会正义,体现了超时代的理想主义色彩。中间党派对社会民主主义的颂扬,具有反抗国民党专制统治的进步意义,是近代中国民主宪政运动史留给后人的一笔精神财富。     

世博效应对长三角地区经济一体化的影响探析--兼论长三角地区区域经济一体化策略

在经济全球化的趋势下,长江三角洲地区经济一体化已经成为该地区经济发展不可逆转的趋势。本文结合2010年上海世博会的召开,分析了长三角地区经济一体化的战略意义及其基础,指出世博会对长三角地区经济一体化各个方面具有促进作用,并提出长三角地区区域经济一体化的对策。     

The global and regional constitution of nations: the view from East Asia

ABSTRACT. While the origins of nationalism are sought in global historical trends, few analysts have shown how nations themselves are constituted and re‐shaped by circulating global power, ideas and models. The view from East Asia shows that these circulations are mediated by regional developments and interactions which bind these nations together in rivalry and interdependence. The histories of China, Japan and Korea have been closely tied together since the end of the nineteenth century and, with a gap of about thirty years during the Cold War, have intensified once again. The global and regional constitution of nations produces a dialectic between its global form and aspirations and misrecognition of this constitution arising from the self‐perception of nationalism as historically immanent. This tension between the global constitution and national misrecognition contributes to the tenacity of nationalism. It also allows us to get a better grasp of the relationship between historical change and structure in nationalism and the relationship between state and popular nationalisms in the countries of the region.     

The Middle Paleolithic of the East Mediterranean Levant

This paper reviews recent developments in geochronology, archaeology, and behavioral interpretations of the Middle Paleolithic Period (ca. 47–250 Kyr) in the East Mediterranean Levant. Neandertals and early modern humans both occupied the Levant during this period. Both these hominids are associated with the Levantine Mousterian stone tool industry and similar sets of faunal remains. The Levant has long been seen as preserving evidence for the origin of modern humans out of Neandertal ancestors. Recent radiometric dates for Levantine Middle Paleolithic contexts challenge this hypothesis. Instead, they suggest the evolutionary relationships between these hominids were far more complicated. Proposed models for Neandertal and early modern human coevolutionary relationships are examined. Intense competition between Neandertals and early modern humans for a narrow human niche may be the context out of which the Upper Paleolithic behavioral revolution arose.     

China's Infrastructure Investment Boom and Local Debt Crisis

A noted Hong Kong-based economist addresses the emerging financing problems prompted by debt-laden local governments in China in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. More specifically, using the most recent data available, he traces the root of China's local debt overhang to a protracted debt-financed infrastructure investment boom in which several key institutions (the cadre evaluation system, the land management regime, and the banking sector) have created an environment that draws local governments into a land-infrastructure-leverage trap. The author argues that the resulting high levels of debt may ultimately impede the country's efforts to mitigate structural imbalances in its economy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H600, H700, P200, P300. 3 figures, 9 tables, 121 references.     

日元国际化对中国参加东亚货币合作的启示

在世界经济区域化一体化的发展趋势下,日本的日元区域化国际化进程给我国参与东亚货币合作带来一些启示,全球化时代区域内经济的高度相关性,欧元和美元金融区对亚洲货币造成的压力使东亚货币合作势在必行。中国在参与东亚货币合作过程中需要妥善处理中国与日本,中国与东亚其他国家和地区,中国和美国的关系,同时着力解决好中国正在面临的国内问题。     

变动中的东亚地缘政治与美国东亚政策的演变

近年来,伴随着中国的快速发展和东亚地缘政治格局的变化,美国加快了向东亚转移战略力量的步伐,这一动向值得中国关注。本文通过对近代以来东亚地缘政治格局的变化进行分析,系统梳理了美国东亚政策的来龙去脉及其主线,并对美国东亚政策的未来走向进行了预研。     

Pigments from the Middle Palaeolithic levels of Es-Skhul (Mount Carmel,Israel)

Discovery of pigments at Middle Palaeolithic sites is of interest in the context of the ongoing debate about the tempo and mode of the emergence of modern human behaviour. Here we analyse four previously undescribed fragments of pigmental material from Es-Skhul shelter, layer B, Israel, McCown excavations, identified at the Department of Palaeontology, Natural History Museum, London. One of them is still partially embedded in the hard breccia characteristic of this layer. Inspection of breccia fragments from layer B has led to the identification of small pieces of red and orange pigmental material still enclosed in large clasts, further corroborating the attribution of the larger pieces analysed in this study to layer B. The four objects are studied using optical microscopy, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX), X-ray micro-diffraction (μ-XRD), Particle-Induced X-Ray Emission Spectrometry (PIXE), and Proton-Induced Gamma-ray Emission (PIGE). The specimens display various hues of yellow, orange, red, and one of them presents a gradual variation of shade from yellow to dark orange. SEM/EDX analysis identifies two specimens (Skhul 1 and 2) as being composed of iron-rich calcium phosphate, the third (Skhul 3) of potassium-rich clay with titanium-rich iron oxide inclusions, and the fourth (Skhul 4) of pure iron oxide crystals. TEM/EDX and μ-XRD analysis demonstrate that three pieces (Skhul 1, 2 and 4) were heated to at least 300 °C, a process that has partially or completely dehydrated goethite into haematite and changed their pristine yellow colour into orange or red. Skhul 3 shows no sign of heating, suggesting that its haematite content has a geological origin. The different mineral composition of the pieces suggests that they must come from a variety of sources. This implies that the associated collection strategies included the selection of materials that differed not only with respect to colour but also with respect to other physical and chemical properties. Although no formal proof exists that these lumps of pigmental material were deliberately heated, results obtained are consistent with this explanation.