长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

EQUALITY OF SPATIAL ACCESS TO PRIMARY HEALTH SERVICES FOR SINGAPORE'S BABY BOOMERS

The ageing baby boomers in Singapore, which account for one-third of the total population in 2006, will have a profound impact on the economy, society and environment. The greatest demand is for health care services. Even though Singapore has generally been regarded as a country where primary health services are easily available to all residents, this paper identifies significant spatial variations across the island-state. In particular, accessibility in some areas with high concentration of boomers is relatively lower compared to other residential areas. This paper concludes that understanding the spatial variation in primary health service accessibility is critical to the success of future policies, which may lead to a review of the provision of such services across the island. The methodology developed in this paper is also applicable to the study of service inequalities in other Asian countries with large rural settings.     

基于出行调查和GIS分析的县域公共服务设施配置评价研究——以德兴市医疗设施为例

针对传统的县域公共服务设施布局分析主要考虑空间可达性的问题,提出一套更全面和贴近实际的公共服务设施配置评价方法体系。公共服务设施配置评价应能反映服务设施的空间可达性、服务质量、居民的需求与选择三方面内容,为此应综合采用GIS、问卷调查、出行路线图分析等多种技术。在具体操作上,提出\"建立县域公共服务设施等级体系--基于时间距离的设施可达性计算--考虑个体行为选择的服务区划分--基于服务区的设施使用状况评价\"的\"四步法\"。主要有两个创新点:①引入了基于出行调查的服务区分析,反映了设施的异质性带来的居民的自主选择和跨区域流动情况;②对设施服务质量的考虑更全面,不仅限于传统的设施规模,还考虑了医生水平、硬件设备、科室设置等因素。     

基于弱势群体需求的北京服务设施可达性集成研究

关注人群属性和需求,探讨服务设施供给的社会公平是新时代服务设施研究的重要议题,对于人口总量巨大、社会构成多元、社会空间分异凸显的大城市尤其如此。尽管研究某一弱势群体对单项服务设施需求的文献不断涌现,但是结合居民主观的服务设施需求偏好的可达性集成研究尚不多见。本文以北京作为案例城市,首先采用居民主观调查数据分析四类弱势群体对于公共服务设施的需求结构,然后基于POI数据,借助GIS分析这四类弱势群体服务设施需求偏好下的北京市公共服务设施综合可达性情况,且对综合可达性较差的区域进行了空间识别。本研究综合定性与定量方法,探讨主观与客观数据相匹配的可达性集成方法,可以为今后的相关研究提供借鉴,并能够对北京建设国际一流和谐宜居之都提供理论支撑。     

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.     

Health prospects of older persons in Thailand: the role of education

ABSTRACT

Thailand’s population is aging rapidly and the number of older adults suffering from health limitations is expected to increase. Making use of several rounds of the Survey of Older Persons, we look at the education-specific prevalences of three health indicators over time and find a positive education gradient for difficulties with ADLs and poor self-rated health, but not for functional limitations. Combining these age-, sex- and education-specific prevalences for each indicator with population projections up to 2050, we see a lower projected number of persons with difficulties with ADLs or bad health as compared to an approach when we only account for differences by age and sex. Still, irrespective of the approach taken, we project a significant increase in the number of persons 50+ that have at least one ADL difficulty, at least one functional limitation or suffer from poor health. Our results provide estimates for future care needs and illustrate the possibly preventive effect of education.     

IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON INDIA'S PUBLIC FINANCE

This paper integrates the methodology of the National Transfer Accounts and Budget Forecasting Model to compute and forecast the impact of population ageing on India's public finance from 2005 through 2050, based on the fiscal structure in 2004–2005. The empirical results are new and have useful policy implications. The forecasted increase in the share of total public expenditure on elderly individuals is largely accounted for by expenditure on civilian pensions and other cash transfers, government services, and poverty and other social protection. Elderly individuals are found to be not very expensive in terms of public health expenditure. Tax revenues increase and result in a decline of debt-to-GDP ratio because population ageing does not lower tax buoyancy in the long run. Overall, the increasing total budget surplus and fiscal support ratio implies that the long-term impact of population ageing may be fiscally sustainable.     

Self-rated Health of older persons in Indonesia

This study contributes to expanding the knowledge of the health of older persons living in Indonesia, a country with limited welfare benefits. The research employs a variable, ‘self-rated health’ (SRH), to investigate socio-cultural factors linked to the health of older Indonesians. The data presented in this study are based on fieldwork collected using a mixed-method approach. Sex-difference in SRH in older age is shown to be predominantly a result of enduring inequalities across the life course, manifested in cultural practices, education, employment and programs for health. An older person's status within the family is a significant determinant of SRH, but the direction of the relationship depends on the sex and ethnicity of the person. Other variables related to SRH are age, lifestyle, education, residential area and intergenerational transfers.     

南京市社区服务设施可达性的空间格局与低收入社区空间剥夺研究

社区服务设施的空间可达性事关城市公共资源分配的社会公平与公正,是反映城市居民生活质量的重要标志。以南京市居住用地作为基本分析单元,对南京市的教育、医疗、商业和公园绿地四大类社区服务设施的空间可达性进行分析;并通过对相关低收入社区的实地调研,研究城市边缘区低收入群体的服务设施空间剥夺问题。研究表明：南京市四类服务设施的可达性水平均呈现出由城市中心区向郊区衰减的空间分异格局;较低的社区服务设施可达性不仅直接造成低收入社区居民对社区服务设施较低的满意度,导致其空间剥夺感的产生,还极大地阻碍着社区归属感的形成,导致社区居民强烈的迁居欲望,在他们较低的支付能力下进一步加剧其空间剥夺感。政府未来在规划面向低收入群体的保障性社区时,更应注重相关服务配套设施建设,做到社会与空间的公正性。     

河南省人口分布与乡镇可达性空间耦合特征

人口作为区域发展的内在因素,交通可达性提高将有利于促进人口或劳动力要素的自由流动和优化配置。在考虑土地利用及地形因素的基础上,采用包含乡村道的交通网络数据集,应用改进的成本距离计算方法,分析河南省乡镇可达性及其分布特征;通过乡镇可达性与人口密度的空间叠加,揭示人口分布与可达性的空间耦合特征。结果表明：①各乡镇可达性总体呈现明显的圈层分布,可达性值由内向外逐渐降低;时段越短,内部差异越大,交通指向越明显。②乡镇可达性与人口密度在各时间圈呈现正相关关系,可达性与人口分布集聚产生作用的最大时间距离为1.5h。③人口与交通可达性的空间耦合呈现较明显的半环状分布,社会经济指向性明显。④交通可达性对人口变化的影响具有时间阶段性和区域差异性。     

DOUBLE TRANSITIONS? REGIONAL PATTERNS OF POPULATION AGEING IN POLAND

The number and geographical distribution of the aged, and how the distribution changes over time, have captured the attention of geographical gerontologists; the complexity and spatially differentiated nature of ageing is of considerable practical and theoretical import. This article seeks to link the traditional concerns of population geography to the social and spatial relations between old people, their health and places of residence and care. It does presuppose, however, that patterns and processes at the sub‐national level are also taken into account. Therefore, the aim of the article is to identify the aged and the localities or regions where they reside, within the particular context of a Polish post‐socialist society that has recently become integrated into the European mainstream. As such it is potentially subject to a double transition, where the political and economic changes cross path with the second demographic transition. To identify interrelationships between ageing and post‐socialist transition, areas vulnerable to ageing are defined using ageing indices. Projections of the share of elderly up to 2030, based on a component cohort method, are made with a view to identifying future change in the spatial patterns of ageing. Regional patterns of ageing are presented in social, political or economic context, to show their relation to the structural changes that societies such as Poland have been passing through during the period of transition to democracy and a market economy or are likely to go through in the near future.     

THE HEALTH OF OLDER WOMEN AFTER HIGH PARITY IN TAFT,IRAN

High parity has been hypothesised to lead to a shorter and less healthy life. Using the 2007 Taft Ageing Health and Fertility Survey consisting of 696 women aged 50–79, this paper examines the extent to which women's health in middle and older ages is affected by their childbearing histories. The results show that high parity (>8) is associated with a reduction of GP-rated health by 0.094 points on a scale from 1 to 10. These health reductions are four times as large as those of an extra year of age, and are robust to controlling for birth interval, age, area of residence, education, marital status, work history, economic satisfaction and surviving daughters. There is a positive but curvilinear relationship between shorter birth intervals (<2 years) and GP-rated health accounting for socio-demographic factors. Our analysis suggests that parity and birth intervals, along with socio-demographic characteristics, affect women's well-being in later life.     

年龄分层视角下医疗设施可达性对居民就医行为的影响——以上海市崇明岛为例

年龄是影响就医行为的重要因素,从年龄分层视角出发探讨医疗资源可达性对就医行为的影响有助于理解居民的就医行为决策机理.本文以崇明岛为案例,利用一手调查数据,结合两步移动搜寻算法和回归分析方法,探讨了医疗设施可达性对居民就医机构选择和惯常就医距离的影响,揭示了不同年龄群体之间就医行为影响机理的差异.研究发现,医疗设施可达性...     

HISTORIOMETRICS,HISTORICAL AND CARTOGRAPHIC INFORMATION,AND COMPUTERS

Abstract

Accessibility is frequently used in transportation planning to measure the efficiency of new infrastructure in terms of travel time and population served. In this article, the authors apply accessibility concepts based on the geo-historical angle. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationships between population dynamics and the railway expansion from 1830 to 1930. Their approach considers a local scale composed of some 36,000 French communes for the demographic data and more than 28,000 kilometers for the railway network. The methodological framework of this database is based on historical geographic information systems completed by anamorphosis analysis. In this way, they are able to map the changing contours of accessibility from the local to the regional and national scales for historical time.