MAPPING OF THE POPULATION POTENTIAL

The development of the population potential model and its use both in the Soviet Union and abroad are reviewed. A formula proposed by O. D. Duncan, incorporating the so-called inner potential (equivalent to the actual population) in the formula for the population potential of a region or place is found to yield exaggerated high values for population centers. Interpolation of potentials on the basis of such peak values leads to considerable distortion of reality, as does the use of transport distance instead of straightline distance between interacting places. The author develops new formulas for the construction of population potential maps in an effort to refine the technique and extend its applicability to large-scale mapping.     

Modeling agricultural potential in Chaco Canyon during the Bonito phase: a predictive geospatial approach

This study presents a geospatial analysis of surficial hydrology and geomorphology and their relationship to potential agricultural productivity in order to better understand the economic role of water in Chaco Canyon during the Bonito Phase (ca. AD 850–1150). Defined as the Natural Agricultural Suitability Analysis, the foundation of this study is a hierarchical geospatial analysis that integrates six key natural factors: slope, soil texture, soil depth, non-catastrophic overbank flooding potential, drainage flow length, and drainage proximity and flow potential. These factors are combined through a raster weighted overlay function to generate composite suitability map that offers a testable proxy for variability in relative agricultural potential during the Bonito Phase at Chaco. The rationale for including this set of natural factors is based largely on ethnographic and modern agricultural studies, but the predictive model differs from previous studies of agricultural potential in that it is independent of the specific archaeological distribution of evidence of agriculture in the study area. The results of this analysis suggest that previous models of Chacoan agricultural productivity have underestimated local production capacity. Previous studies have focused solely on floodplain contexts, whereas this study points to a more comprehensive and geographically distributed use of the landscape.     

中国省域旅游业发展潜力的比较研究

对区域旅游产业发展潜力的测评,可以反映区域旅游产业发展的后续能力和未来前景。通过构建区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,借助SPSS统计分析软件,从旅游业产业发展角度出发,对我国31个省、市、自治区旅游业发展潜力的差异进行了量化研究。研究表明,我国东部大部分省域具有较强的旅游产业发展潜力,中部大部分省份旅游产业发展潜力居中,而西部大多省份的旅游产业发展潜力较弱,这与我国经济发展的差异基本上相似。同时,研究也发现,旅游发展潜力的强弱分布基本上与旅游竞争力的强弱分布是一致的。     

韩国潜在游客的中国旅游目的地意象认知与行为意图

旅游目的地意象是20世纪70年代以来,地理学和旅游学等学科交叉生成的研究命题,是旅游目的地市场细分、市场定位及竞争分析的重要工具。本文选择中国近缘文化群体客源市场,也是中国最大的入境客源市场韩国为研究对象,以非结构式和结构式研究相互结合的方式,研究分析了韩国潜在游客对中国的旅游目的地意象认知及行为意图,研究结果显示：（1）韩国潜在游客对中国的旅游目的地意象认知由四个基本维度构成,分别是平和、愉悦、动感与现代,其中,平和、愉悦和现代与旅游目的地意象呈正相关关系;（2）韩国潜在游客对中国的旅游目的地意象认知与其行为意图呈正相关关系;（3）中国旅游目的地意象的平和、愉悦特征对韩国潜在游客行为意图有明显的正向影响,呈正相关关系。     

Avoiding Blame—A Comprehensive Framework and the Australian Home Insulation Program Fiasco

It is widely acknowledged in the literature that the study of blame avoidance behavior (BAB) exhibited by public officials is scattered and unconcentrated, and that, for the most part, it neglects both contextual factors and comparative research. These deficits inhibit the production of the kind of generalized findings necessary to better understand potential consequences for the policy process and the workings of political systems. We address these deficits by developing a framework that takes stock of blame avoidance research, clarifies the explanatory potential of contextual factors, and allows for a systematic context‐sensitive cross‐case analysis. For illustrative purposes, the framework is applied to the Home Insulation Program in Australia as a critical case. This case reveals the explanatory potential of contextual factors for the understanding of BAB and the consequences thereof. We conclude by stating the advantages of our framework and explain how it can be used for comparative research.     

Dental Microwear and Diet in Domestic Sheep (Ovis aries) and Goats (Capra Hircus): Distinguishing Grazing and Fodder-fed Ovicaprids using a Quantitative Analytical Approach

In recent years, dental microwear analysis has attracted considerable interest as a potential method for reconstructing ancient diet. This article presents results from research exploring the potential of dental microwear analysis in the reconstruction of domestic ungulate diet through the quantitative analysis of diet-microwear relationships in modern grazing and fodder-fed sheep and goats. Diet-related microwear patterning is identified in the modern populations examined and it is concluded that with investigation of a wider range of modern diets, dental microwear analysis will emerge as a valuable and insightful approach for the investigation of diet in ancient livestock.     

Measuring potential spatial access to primary health care physicians using a modified gravity model

Ensuring equity of access to primary health care (PHC) across Canada is a continuing challenge, especially in rural and remote regions. Despite considerable attention recently by the World Health Organization, Health Canada and other health policy bodies, there has been no nation-wide study of potential (versus realized) spatial access to PHC. This knowledge gap is partly attributable to the difficulty of conducting the analysis required to accurately measure and represent spatial access to PHC. The traditional epidemiological method uses a simple ratio of PHC physicians to the denominator population to measure geographical access. We argue, however, that this measure fails to capture relative access. For instance, a person who lives 90 minutes from the nearest PHC physician is unlikely to be as well cared for as the individual who lives more proximate and potentially has a range of choice with respect to PHC providers. In this article, we discuss spatial analytical techniques to measure potential spatial access. We consider the relative merits of kernel density estimation and a gravity model. Ultimately, a modified version of the gravity model is developed for this article and used to calculate potential spatial access to PHC physicians in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. This model incorporates a distance decay function that better represents relative spatial access to PHC. The results of the modified gravity model demonstrate greater nuance with respect to potential access scores. While variability in access to PHC physicians across the test province of Nova Scotia is evident, the gravity model better accounts for real access by assuming that people can travel across artificial census boundaries. We argue that this is an important innovation in measuring potential spatial access to PHC physicians in Canada. It contributes more broadly to assessing the success of policy mandates to enhance the equitability of PHC provisioning in Canadian provinces.     

Geotagging Photographs in Student Fieldwork

This resource paper provides guidance for staff and students on the potential educational benefits, limitations and applications of geotagging photographs. It also offers practical advice for geotagging photographs in a range of fieldwork settings and reviews three free smartphone applications (apps) for geotagging photographs (Flickr, Evernote and Panoramio). Geotagged photographs have the potential to encourage post-fieldwork student reflection on a landscape. A short case study of first-year undergraduates who geotagged photographs as a method of data collection is outlined. This resource paper also briefly discusses the use of student-owned devices in fieldwork which may reduce pressure on departmental budgets.     

居民社区活动空间共享的公共接触潜力测度方法

社区内的日常活动空间共享有利于创造居民面对面的社会接触,进而增进理解、提升社区信任和社区融合。基于行为地理学理论与方法,提出“物质空间—活动空间共享—社会心理空间”的关系路径,揭示社区居民的活动空间共享的研究意义;从结构、层级、尺度和载体四个角度构建居民社区活动空间共享的公共接触潜力分析框架;从社区和个体两个层级构建公共接触潜力测度方法,基于共同活动的联系衡量社区居民空间共享的广泛程度和频繁程度。在理论框架与指标测度的基础上,使用上海市郊区调查数据进行实证检验,分析了活动空间共享的社区差异和个体差异。研究指出,提升居民空间共享对建设充满人气的活力社区具有意义,能够为郊区社区生活圈建设和社区治理提供支持。     

How losers can turn into winners in disputatious public policy: a heuristic for prospective herestheticians

The study of heresthetic is a quest to explain how potential political losers might become winners. Local Government amalgamation is invariably a controversial and hotly contested political decision. It thus represents the ideal context to locate a pedagogical discussion regarding how clever herestheticians might act to bring about unlikely political success. Specifically, we extend the heresthetic literature by drawing attention to the costs (opportunity, contingency and legacy costs) inherent to various strategies, the need to carefully evaluate the heresthetic potential of different dimensions according to which amalgamations might be argued, and the importance of ensuring that the rhetorical seasoning is appropriate. This leads us to propose a heuristic that we argue has the potential to turn losers into winners on the vexed matter of local government amalgamations. We conclude by considering the implications of our heuristic for both prospective herestheticians in other public policy areas and for the wider heresthetic research agenda.     

The Ethics Minefield: Issues of responsibility in learning and research

Google Glass was deployed in an Urban Studies field course to gather videographic data for team-based student research projects. We evaluate the potential for wearable computing technology such as Glass, in combination with other mobile computing devices, to enhance reflexive research skills, and videography in particular, during field research. The utility as well as the limitations of Google Glass are discussed, including its actual and potential application for teaching and data gathering purposes in the field. As such, this article constitutes one of the first instances of evaluating Google Glass as a social science research tool.     

Modelling small-arms projectile distribution on eighteenth- and nineteenth-century battlefield sites

The application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies to archaeological investigations continues to provide new perspectives on historical events. Applied to battlefield archaeology, GIS analysis offers an efficient means of predicting potential artefact distribution across a conflict landscape. The approach proposed in this piece allows a user to test historical engagement scenarios within a desktop computing environment utilizing a customized GIS application. The study was intended to develop a framework that allowed for the input of quantifiable parameters in order to illustrate potential artefact patterning. The framework consists of two components, the trajectory model and the methodology for implementing it. Using this coarse-grained approach, it is our contention that small-arms projectile distribution can be estimated for a single engagement, and in doing so provide a more comprehensive view of potential artefact patterning than using KOCOA (Key Terrain, Observation and Fields of Fire, Concealment and Cover, Obstacles, Avenues of Approach/Withdrawal) terrain analysis or historic research alone. As an initial example to illustrate the efficacy of our model, this study uses data and parameters from the 1777 Battle of Ridgefield, Connecticut landscape as a test case.     

Strategic Environmental Planning and Uncertainty: A Cross-National Comparison of Green Plans in Industrialized Countries

Uncertainty is a distinct feature of environmental policy and environmental issues. This article explores the potential of strategic and comprehensive environmental planning for dealing with these uncertainties. First, four types of uncertainty and their specific impacts on environmental policy are distinguished. Strategic environmental planning could be a promising approach for dealing with these uncertainties. Based on an empirical analysis of national environmental policy plans and sustainability strategies in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, this article comes to the conclusion that although only few of the existing green plans fully explore the theoretical potential of this new approach to environmental policymaking, it has proven an effective mechanism to deal with and reduce at least some of the uncertainties with which environmental policymakers are confronted. The greatest potential of strategic planning lies in increasing the political system's capacity to deal with those problems of long-term environmental degradation, which in spite of the past successes of environmental protection remain largely unsolved.     

Terrestrial implications for the maritime geoarchaeological resource: A view from the Lower Palaeolithic

Stone tools and faunal remains have been recovered from the English Channel and the North Sea through trawling, dredging for aggregates, channel clearance, and coring. These finds highlight the potential for a maritime Lower Palaeolithic archaeological resource. It is proposed here that any Lower Palaeolithic artefacts, faunal remains, and sediments deposited in the maritime zone during dry, low-stand phases were once (and may still be) contextually similar to their counterparts in the terrestrial Lower Palaeolithic records of north-western Europe. Given these similarities, can interpretive models and analytical frameworks developed for terrestrial archaeology be profitably applied to an assessment of the potential value of any maritime resource? The terrestrial geoarchaeological resource for the Lower Palaeolithic is dominated by artefacts and ecofacts that have been fluvially reworked. The spatio-temporal resolution of these data varies from entire river valleys and marine isotope stages to river channel gravel bar surfaces and decadal timescales, thus supporting a variety of questions and approaches. However, the structure of the terrestrial resource also highlights two fundamental limitations in current maritime knowledge that can restrict the application of terrestrial approaches to any potential maritime resource: (i) how have the repetitive transgressions and regressions of the Middle and Late Pleistocene modified the terrace landforms and sediments associated with the river systems of the English Channel and southern North Sea basins?; and (ii) do the surviving submerged terrace landforms and fluvial sedimentary deposits support robust geochronological models, as is the case with the classical terrestrial terrace sequences? This paper highlights potential approaches to these questions, and concludes that the fluvial palaeogeography, Pleistocene fossils, and potential Lower Palaeolithic artefacts of the maritime geoarchaeological resource can be profitably investigated in future as derived, low-resolution data sets, facilitating questions of colonisation, occupation, demography, and material culture.     

ADMINISTRATIVE NETWORKS AND MUNICIPAL SERVICE DISTRIBUTIONS*

This paper analyzes the service distribution patterns of Israeli cities during the late 1970's in an effort to gain a better understanding of the potential effects of institutional arrangements on service distribution. The results of the analysis suggest that a variety of administrative issues which would be confronted in both centralized and decentralized systems significantly constrain the potential for achieving service equilization through institutional reform. Reformers should be aware of the administrative dynamics which accompany service delivery in their design of reform proposals.     

Defying Moscow: East German-Chinese relations during the Andropov-Chernenko interregnum, 1982–1985

Using newly available East German and Chinese sources, this article sheds light on how East Germany actively defied Moscow's objections to expand relations with China in the early 1980s. Amidst increasing East German-Soviet tensions, East German leader Erich Honecker actively sought relations with China not only for reasons of prestige but also to gain a potential market for East German goods. This interest was initially reciprocated on the Chinese side, as Beijing looked towards East Germany as a leading industrial state for potential economic lessons during Deng Xiaoping's Reform and Opening Process.     

The Geo-imaginaries of potential in Mexico's Burgos Basin

In this paper, we use the geo-imaginary analytic to show how actors utilized narratives of resource potential and speculative economic futures for the Burgos Basin in northeastern Mexico to affect a broader liberalization of the nation's hydrocarbon sector. Our research traces the history of the word “potential” as a discrete and repetitive rhetorical technique used variously to speculate on hydrocarbon production, economic development, regional energy development, and risks associated with the Burgos. We also identify an array of visualizations, what we refer to as ‘conjurings,’ used with narratives of potential to encourage investments in the Basin's development. These include: maps depicting Burgos geologic continuity with productive Texas fields, quantitative forecasts of growing production, visual depictions of private firms facilitating future production, and fracking as a necessary wedge to pry open the Burgos' unrealized potential. Finally, using governmentality, we link Burgos potentiality discourses to socio-political outcomes, including in the early 2000s, when the Basin was imagined as a way to counterbalance the skyrocketing costs of imported natural gas, continuing with the 2013–2014 Reforms, and into the post-Reform oil and gas conference spaces that facilitated financial investing opportunities. We also argue that the current administration leveraged anti-fracking discourse to reverse the liberalization of Mexico's hydrocarbon sector. By drawing together overlapping elements from scholarship into resources, speculation, and governmentality, and by parsing the ways that potential narratives and conjuring tools are deployed, this research contributes to ongoing debates in political geography around natural resources and the geopolitics of the subsurface.     

Analytical modelling of the electric field distribution in the high-latitude ionosphere

An analytical approach is implemented for self-consistent modelling of the high-latitude convection electric field. Input parameters are determined as distributions of field-aligned currents and height-integrated conductivity. The high-latitude ionosphere is approximated with an arbitrary number (N) of concentric rings. The height-integrated conductivity (∑) is independent of co-latitude within any ring, but depends on the longitude ~ sin λ. The field-aligned currents flow only along the boundaries of each ring and are presented by Fourier series in longitude. The analytical solution for the potential φ as a function of longitude is also presented as a Fourier series. An analytical solution is obtained for the potential dependencies on co-latitude. For the extreme case, when the integrated conductivity does not depend on longitude, this solution coincides with the analytical results, obtained by other authors. Based on this solution, the potential distribution in the high-latitude ionosphere, an example with N = 5 is shown, the values of conductivity and field-aligned currents being similar to those values used by other authors.     

Creativity,Culture and Urban Strategies: A Fallacy in Cultural Urban Strategies

Two fields of knowledge have been of special importance for the emergence of culture-led urban planning in Norwegian cities: one concerns the understanding of the potential of culture as an economic driving force in urban regeneration, while the other focuses on the emergence of the concept of the “creative class” and has drawn attention to the importance of competence and creativity in urban development. Despite clear connections between the two fields, it may appear that false connections have been made in regeneration strategies in a number of cities. Based on analyses of the culture-led urban strategy of Kristiansand, a small Norwegian city, these knowledge fields are discussed and it is claimed that there seems to be a fallacy in how they are treated in the culture-led urban strategy. The fallacy concerns the way that creativity is equated with culture and further how theories about the emergence of the creative class are equated with a culture industry approach to urban planning. Questions are raised about the potential of culture industry strategies and it is argued that the potential for growth in small cities may not be as great as the public debate and research conducted in large metropolises might suggest.     

China's "Dash for Gas": Challenges and Potential Impacts on Global Markets

Two UK-based researchers examine the significant recent growth in China's demand for natural gas, a fuel not long ago considered of marginal importance but now viewed as critical for the country's future economic growth. Based on a range of databases as well as industry and media reports, the authors demonstrate how rapid demand growth since 2005 has transformed China from a minor, self-sufficient gas producer to a major buyer on international gas markets. They also analyze projections for future demand growth (25 years), showing China's demand for gas will grow faster that anywhere else in the world, and explore the potential for development of China's substantial domestic gas reserves to mitigate import demand over the short to medium term. The study concludes with an assessment of China's potential impact on global gas markets over short, intermediate, and long time horizons.