基于GIS的西安市城市扩展与模拟研究

本文以西安市为研究区域,以2002年ETM影像和2007年TM影像遥感数据为城市扩展动态变化的主要信息来源,采用逻辑回归模型并结合GIS技术对西安市的城市空间扩展进行模拟。研究选取了道路、河流、地裂缝、地面沉降、人口和GDP等6个因子,建立了西安市城市扩展的逻辑回归模型,并根据所建立的模型对西安市的城市扩展进行了模拟,结果表明,所建立的逻辑回归模型能够较好地模拟西安市的城市扩展,对西安市城市扩展的驱动力具有较强的解释作用,其中对城市扩展影响最重要的因素为距道路距离。     

城市空间扩散增长模型与模拟

城市模型模拟是上世纪90年代上半期形成并迅速发展的地学计算理论、方法与应用研究的最重要领域,国外以M. Batty为代表的规划与地理学家们进行了开创性的研究,取得了很多有用成果。本文借鉴这些学者的研究思路,从城市土地利用与开发的视角,利用疾病感染、传播机理的模拟方法,研究城市空间扩展、演化动力学过程的模型模拟问题;为模拟城市土地开发利用在不同阶段的表现与特征,研究了基本模型的不同变换形式;讨论了基于细胞自动机模型的城市空间扩展模型的计算结构,依据模拟结果,探讨了以城市形态扩展特征为指标进行城市分类的可行性,尝试对城市地理学的模型模拟方法作一拓展。     

Geomorphology and the sand and gravel industry of west Central Scotland

The countryside around towns is under increasing pressure for development as a result of the centrifugal forces which have characterised the capitalist urbanisation process in the post‐war era. Conflict between pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests is now endemic in many peri‐urban areas. This paper identifies the principal agents involved in the production of the built environment in the urban fringe and presents a detailed analysis of how divergent interests interact to determine the nature of the fringe environment. The research informs academic debate on rural land conversion and provides guidance for decision‐makers charged with management of the urban fringe.     

中国城市蔓延时空动态识别及驱动因素探测

城市蔓延已成为全球性的热点问题。基于2000-2017年夜间灯光数据和LandScan人口分布数据,以中国343个地级及以上城市为研究单元,利用能够细分城市内部密度差异的蔓延度指标测度城市蔓延状况,并运用趋势分析、探索性时空数据分析技术（ESTDA）和地理探测器等方法,分析中国城市蔓延变化趋势及时空格局,探究影响城市蔓延的驱动因素。结果表明：①2000-2017年,中国城市蔓延整体表现为中高度蔓延,在空间分布上,蔓延度呈现西北高、东南低的空间格局。②18年间,47%的城市其蔓延度基本保持不变,位于省际交界处的城市其蔓延度呈现增大的趋势,而少数省会城市或区域中心城市的蔓延度则呈现减小的趋势。③蔓延度的局部空间稳定性自东南地区向西北、东北地区递减。蔓延度存在较强的空间依赖性,且城市数量由低LISA弯曲度到高弯曲度大致呈现金字塔结构,79%的城市其蔓延度的波动性较弱;蔓延度没有出现明显的时空跃迁,空间凝聚性较强,空间格局较为稳定,存在一定的转移惰性。④第三产业产值、GRP和房地产开发投资额是影响中国城市蔓延的最主要因素。     

大都市边缘区农村居民对宅基地退出和定居的思考——以南京市江宁区为例

中国的快速城镇化推动了乡村发展转型与空间重构,农村居民对于土地退出、定居的想法正发生着变化。基于2014 年在南京市江宁区的问卷及访谈调查,本文探索了发达地区大都市边缘区中农村居民针对宅基地退出和未来定居的意愿。通过运用访谈资料和回归模型,本文发现村庄属性、一些个人主客观因子都影响着农村居民对于土地退出和未来定居的决策。本文还发现,相当多的农村居民倾向于在邻近小城镇定居,对宅基地退出普遍持负面态度。随着宅基地财产功能的提升、城乡一体化进程推进等方面的变化,关于宅基地流转制度的改革势在必行。     

Prospects for the Rural‐Urban Fringe in Australia: Observations from a Brief History of the Landscapes around Sydney and Adelaide

Despite being a major site of recent population growth and, arguably, a key arena for sustainability concerns, the rural‐urban fringe has received relatively little attention in the literature concerning Australian cities and urban policy. To address this shortcoming the authors review post‐World War II efforts to plan the rural‐urban fringes of Sydney and Adelaide and find a number of issues for contemporary policy‐makers. First, the fringe is becoming increasingly complex due to multi‐faceted demographic change, a broadening economic base and demands for better environmental management, all within the context of an evolving understanding of sustainability. Second, water resource management, partly under the auspices of integrated natural resource management, is assuming a much higher priority than in early fringe planning endeavours, which emphasised urban containment, agricultural land protection and landscape conservation. Third, and partly as a consequence of this shift of priorities, there is also evidence of changes to the nature and focus of policy tools used in the fringe, with land management concerns now cutting across traditional land use planning. Finally, and fundamentally, these observations raise questions about how future governance of the fringe should be organised. Together these four themes pose an enthralling series of challenges for policy‐makers for which much more research and discussion are needed.     

Agricultural Adaptation to Real Regulation on the Urban Fringe: The Chicken Meat Industry's Response to Land‐use Conflict in the Western Port Region of Victoria,Australia

Research theorising the rural‐urban fringe has not focussed in detail on the regulatory system managing land‐use conflict, including disputes arising between agricultural enterprises and residential property owners. To explore local forms of regulation the need to identify relevant actors, their interrelationships and the way that they compete to influence decision‐makers is widely recognised in the literature. Moran et al.'s (1996) conceptualisation of ‘real regulation’, with its emphasis on lobbying by social actors and the (re)formulation of legislation, is identified as a theoretical perspective that can help to explain local forms of regulation. The understanding of patterns of regulation on the urban fringe requires a more detailed conceptualisation of non‐legislative forms of policy, and a greater appreciation of the different strategies adopted by farmers to influence government. This paper investigates how urban fringe agricultural industries have attempted to influence decision‐making within the development approval process. Evidence is presented from the Western Port region in the urban fringe of Melbourne, Victoria, where refusal for the construction of broiler sheds by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal has resulted in the chicken meat industry adopting a more scientific siting strategy. It is concluded that, whilst this provides an example of agricultural adaptation and reinforces the importance of adopting a temporal dimension to investigate the land development process, the possibility that government will assess environmental harm differently in the future leaves urban fringe broiler farming in a precarious position.     

Sprawl in Spain and Madrid: A Low Starting Point Growing Fast

This article comments upon the situation of sprawl in Spain and Madrid, especially residential sprawl. It does not appear to be a serious problem due to its low starting point, but artificial surface and residential sprawl is growing rapidly. For that reason, it may be an issue in the future. Between 2000 and 2006, urban residential land use grew 0.4% in Spain and 0.2% in Europe per year, land use of industrial and commercial areas grew 2.3% in Spain and 0.4% in Europe and total artificial surface grew 2.7% in Spain and 0.6% in Europe (EEA, 2010). Further, we will study the legislation on maximum and minimum urban density in Spain. The highest maximum urban density is established by the Basque Country, with 230 dwellings per hectare, and the highest minimum urban density is established by Catalonia, with 50 dwellings per hectare. In both cases, it is applied to only certain types of territories. Finally, we will analyse what happens in the Region of Madrid in relation to sprawl. It has very similar patterns compared with the rest of Spain, although more pronounced.     

中国大城市边缘区的概念辨析及其划分

城市边缘区是城市化的前沿地区,是城乡作用力交织碰撞的地域空间,对它的概念描述及划分因城乡发展的背景各异以及研究角度的差异而不同。本文回顾了国内外城市边缘区概念的发展,比较了我国描述城市边缘地带的几个概念之间的差异及其使用范围,针对当前国情,提出了突出地域空间、土地、社会、经济方面特征的城市边缘区概念;结合常用的划分边缘区的几种方法,以武汉市为例,提出从城市规划角度划分边缘区的主要原则及其方法。     

LANDSCAPES OUT OF ORDER: STUDYING THE INNER URBAN FRINGE BEYOND THE RURAL – URBAN DIVIDE

Contemporary accounts of the inner urban fringe tend to focus on the transition from rural to urban land use and rural–urban conflicts, rather than highlighting the landscape at the city edge in its own right. It is argued in this paper that such dichotomous accounts neglect the complexity, values and conflicts of fringe landscapes. The study illustrates that an investigation into the relationship between attempts within spatial planning to design orderly places for urban expansion and the evolvement of places out of order offers a way to analyse landscape transformations at the fringe beyond the rural–urban divide. This approach will offer a multifaceted analysis of the landscape, which in turn will facilitate a more open discussion on land use and values within planning. A theoretical discussion on the interplay between ordered and disordered places is followed by a case study of the interactions between a disordered place and the ambitions within spatial planning to create order. The study has been conducted at the fringe of Burlöv (in southernmost Sweden). By way of conclusion, the findings of the case study are summarized, along with arguments that underline the need for further case studies of fringe landscapes.     

Citizenship and Belonging in the Rural Fringe: A Case Study of a Hindu Temple in Sydney,Australia

Despite Australian multicultural policy that asserts the right of all citizens to maintain and practice their religion, formal citizenship has not guaranteed the welcome or belonging of migrant religious groups at the neighbourhood scale. This is most starkly reflected in contests over the inclusion of minority religious spaces in the Australian landscape, which increasingly take place in the rural–urban fringe of metropolitan areas. This work examines the controversy over a proposed Hindu temple in metropolitan Sydney and reveals insights into the way that rural–urban fringe space is imagined, understood and experienced by land use planners, residents and temple members. Critical discourse analysis of policy documentation along with interviews reveals that land use planners circumscribe belonging in the landscape through the use of zoning ordinances and design controls, local residents mark the boundaries of white privilege through narratives of heritage and cultural difference and temple members claim rights to citizenship based on assertions of sameness.     

Prefiguring a future city: urban growth,spatial planning and the economic local context in Catalonia

This study undertook a quantitative analysis of town master plans to define future urban growth. Spatial direction and intensity of urban expansion were analysed in relation to local contexts using land zoning and a comprehensive database of socio-economic indicators at the municipal scale in Catalonia, Spain. Our results illustrate a progressive shift towards discontinuous settlements consolidating urban centres in most accessible rural areas. Contrary to what was hypothesized (and partly observed) in recent decades, settlement expansion will modestly contribute to a balanced urban spatial structure. Future urban development in Catalonia will not follow a polycentric model, fuelling instead the growth of medium and small urban centres. This process may consolidate the incipient divide in rural areas with high accessibility and a dynamic economic base with remote inland areas experiencing land abandonment and depopulation. The use of indicators derived from town master plans in the assessment of (scattered or polycentric) future urbanization in Europe is finally discussed.     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

试论大城市边缘区的成长机制

大城市边缘区的成长是一个复杂的发展过程。受多种因素的影响,其中经济发展是导致其变化最根本的决定性因素,而经济发展对边缘区成长的决定性影响是通过以下机制发生作用的:首先,城市化过程导致大城市边缘区各组成部分功能的变化,即大城市边缘区出现了新的功能或原有部分功能的衰退;其次,经济的波动,又增强了城市边缘区变化的幅度。     

WHY ARE URBAN TRAVEL TIMES SO STABLE?

Personal travel time in U.S. urban areas has been stable, clashing with the assertion that urban sprawl greatly lengthens travel. Average commute time rises by 7.7 percent with each cross‐sectional doubling of Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) jobs. Using the RELU‐TRAN structural computable general equilibrium model of the Chicago MSA, we simulate the equilibrium effects of a 24 percent population increase projected from 2000 to 2030 by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. If no new road capacity is added, then congestion per mile increases. Although the urbanized land area increases by 19 percent, indicating sprawl, the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per car‐trip decreases by 1.31 percent and the VMT per car‐trip to work decreases by 2.78 percent. Car travel time increases by only 6.25 percent and commuting time by only 4.54 percent, from 30.3 minutes in 2000 to 31.7 in 2030 or 3.4 seconds per year. We further explore the effects of new road capacity, gasoline prices, public transit speed, fuel economy gains, limits on suburban construction, and importantly, the cross‐elasticity of public transit use with respect to car times. The availability of public transportation, economizing on nonwork travel, and land use adjustments that increase job‐residence proximity keep times stable.     

中德经济发达地区城乡一体化模式比较——以长江三角洲与莱茵河下游地区为例

城乡一体化是伴随着工业社会、城市化时代的一种特有的社会经济现象,是人类社会生产力高度发达的一个重要标志,尤其在经济发达地区这种现象更加明显。中德两国有着不同的城市化发展过程和不同的时代背景,在工业化与经济发达区域内,城市化道路及其带来的城乡一体化类型、特征、模式与前景是有一定差异的。本文着重探索中国的长江三角洲与德国的莱茵-鲁尔地区的城乡一体化模式,从不同的视角、层面进行比较研究,试图从两国不同的地区比较得到有益的启示。     

新世纪大城市边缘地区发展的新理念——以长三角地区土地资源保护问题为例

从城市空间布局的观点分析,大城市边缘地区的社会经济发展用地布局是最为复杂的。过去与现代,大城市的边缘区域都是城市空间扩展的主要方向。特别是当代城市化迅速发展时期,城市边缘就是不断郊区城市化的过程。本文以长三角为例,探讨经济发达地区郊区城市化、郊区都市农业基地创建、重点小城镇发展策略以及高新技术园区建设等大城市边缘地区发展的关键性的、涉及到合理利用土地资源的根本问题,论文提出"精明增长"及其城市化蔓延带来的用地时空所引起的各项社会成本、环境成本日益增加的趋势。研究这些问题,为保护我国有限的土地资源提供科学决策。     

LAND AND URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT Land to accommodate urban development in China is provided through requisitions by government officials, suggesting that land availability may be a constraint on urban economic growth. An econometric model of urban GDP growth suggests that land has constrained economic growth in coastal areas but not elsewhere. Elasticities calculated from the estimated coefficients indicate that land availability has a larger proportional impact on economic growth than domestic and foreign investment, labor supply, and government spending. The estimated parameters provide evidence about arbitrage opportunities created by discrepancies between urban land value and compensation for requisitioned rural land, suggesting rural unrest associated with conversion of farmland to urban uses may have some economic roots.     

改革开放以来广佛都市区空间扩展分析

利用遥感和GIS技术对改革开放以来广佛都市区的空间扩展情况进行分析,从1982年的地形图、1995和2008年的遥感影像中提取城镇建设用地和路网数据,从扩展强度、方式和效率等方面对其扩展情况进行定性定量的测度分析,发现:其建设用地具有扩展强度大、速度快的特点,但土地利用方式不甚合理,具有一定的低度不连续开发现象和较显著的道路沿线开发特征;扩展效率不高,新增用地的集约化程度、人口承载力度和经济产出水平均低于原有用地水平。这种高速、低效和无序的扩展特征表明其快速发展存在蔓延倾向。     

中国"三农"问题的由来和发展

中国在改革开放过程中出现的特有的城乡关系和特有的城乡发展路径,产生了中国特有的"三农"问题的理论.这个理论的形成和运用,对于深入认识我国的基本国情、用以指导社会主义现代化建设的实践和对其他国家的问题进行研究,都是很有意义的.我国"三农"问题总的情况是农业问题已经基本上得到了解决,但农民问题和农村问题还很严重,主要根源还在于计划经济体制下所形成的一套农村、农业政策还没有得到根本转变.解决农民问题和农村问题,要继续深化农村体制改革,下决心改革户籍制度,改革现有的土地承包制度,改革现有的国民收入分配格局和乡镇现有的政权体制包括财政体制.