Excessive rightsizing? The interdependence of public school closures and population shrinkage

Shrinking cities have, by definition, lost population. Rightsizing is a strategic planning approach to mitigate the challenges of population loss by adjusting a municipality's services, amenities, or even footprint to fit a new demographic reality. While studies have documented the unacceptability and ineptitude of municipality-driven rightsizing, public school closures have proliferated and quietly become a noteworthy material manifestation of population change. However, as public schools are widely considered to be a foundational component of community cohesion, identity, and prosperity, it begs the question of whether their closure may accelerate the decline feedback mechanisms already present in many shrinking cities. Our study examines public school closures in Ontario, Canada, from 2011 to 2016 to determine the relationship between municipal population trajectories and size and public school closures, and to explore the prevalence of school closures and the community context in shrinking Ontario municipalities. We find that public school closures occurred disproportionately in shrinking and smaller municipalities. Furthermore, public school closure prevalence is associated with low income, low ethnoracial diversity, and low educational attainment.     

A Historical GIS Approach to Studying the Evolution of the Railway and Urban Networks: The Balkans, 1870–2001

Abstract

The study investigates the complex relationship between border changes, railway construction, and the formation of the urban network of the Balkans between 1870 and 2000. The historical geographic information system is applied to measure the impact of border changes and railway construction on the growth of towns and cities and the concentration of urban population during a complex and important period for the formation of the economic geography of the region. While the research done so far has mainly focused on national contexts, the use of historical geographic information systems allows one to present a transnational perspective. The lack of historical continuity in the administrative organization of the Balkan states is offset by focusing on towns and cities instead of regions or municipalities. The results confirm the initial perception that in this part of the continent, national boundaries play a key role in determining the spatial distribution of population and economic activity.     

How much does urban location matter for growth?

This paper analyses the effect of location characteristics on urban growth using regression cubic splines. Our empirical analysis shows that in Spain, differences in accessibility to major urban centres and geographic isolation help explain differences in population growth rates across municipalities between 2001 and 2014. Moreover, even though physical proximity to large cities is usually assumed to be closely related to the attractiveness of a municipality, we found that urban population growth is even more related to the joint effect of distance to major centres and agglomeration. In this respect, there seems to be a threshold from which agglomeration diseconomies come into play such that a greater proximity to major cities and/or being localized within a more densely populated area goes against local growth.     

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN A DECLINING REGION: THE CASE OF SAARLAND

We increasingly understand the causes of population decline: these can be, among others, processes of deindustrialization, decreasing fertility or the succession of a city through the stages of urban life as the city matures. However, we are still insufficiently able to explain why differences still exist between cities within regions experiencing the same macro‐processes and between cities of the same “level of maturity”. This research addresses this intra‐regional differentiation in population development in the declining former mining region of Saarland (Germany). Quantitative and qualitative analysis reveals that the differentiation in current decline stems from (1) the differentiated population development trajectories of the past, with a massive population boom followed by an aged and declining population in the industrial municipalities; and (2) the spatial distribution of amenities over the region; and (3) the spatial distribution and accessibility of housing opportunities steering migration flows. The latter are not necessarily concentrated in those areas that are attractive. Rather, the distribution of these housing opportunities strictly follows the planning logic of the supra‐local institutional framework, with a concentration of housing within easy access of major transportation infrastructure and in larger centres. The case study thus reveals that the mechanisms behind this intraregional differentiation are much more complex than often portrayed in the urban development and decline debate.     

The return of cities: the trajectory of Swiss cities from demographic loss to reurbanization

ABSTRACT

Reurbanization refers to the new demographic growth of cities that previously lost population. How can we explain such a trend reversal? This paper discusses theoretically both phases of urban decline and reurbanization. It examines the trajectory of Swiss cities that have moved from a period of decline (1970–2000) to a new growth (since 2000). It analyses the components behind the population evolution, discusses the socio-cultural, economic and political trends triggering or enabling reurbanization, and identifies three main results. First, reurbanization is due to several population groups: the growing international mobility of the labour force, the increasing number of non-family households (in the context of the second demographic transition) and the growing attractiveness of cities for young adults (extension of youth as a life stage). Second, reurbanization is not only housing-led (construction of dwellings due to planning strategies and real estate activities). It is also population-led: A generation replacement induces a rejuvanation of the age structure and an increase in the density of occupancy of dwellings. Third, reurbanization can be broadly interpreted as a return of cities in terms of residential aspirations, political agenda and real estate activities. As a conclusion, I outline a research agenda on reurbanization.     

The demographic impact of irrigation projects: a comparison of two case studies of the Ebro basin,Spain, 1900–2001

Water management and population issues have always been particularly important in Spain, a country historically characterized by severe environmental constraints on agricultural growth and intense rural depopulation. This paper evaluates whether irrigation projects in Spain over the course of the twentieth century have achieved one of their main objectives, which was to reduce rural population decline. This paper makes two contributions. First, we compare the evolution of population in two of the earliest and most ambitious irrigation projects in Spain, the Riegos del Alto Aragón (Upper Aragon Irrigation System) and the Canal de Aragón y Cataluña (Aragon and Catalonia Canal System), both located in the Ebro basin. Second, the time period of the study spans an entire century. This long-term approach is crucial if we accept that irrigation requires time to consolidate its effects and, therefore, its impact on population may be long delayed. We show that the evolution of population in each of the two projects has been substantially different. We also analyze the factors that have caused or prevented population growth. We argue that financial, economic and environmental limitations have been significant, but also that political and geographical factors have played a major role.     

Urban sprawl in Spain: differences among cities and causes

Urban sprawl has a major impact on the environment, public health and the socio-economic evolution of cities. The causes are numerous, being mainly related to the generalized use of the automobile in modern cities. Urban sprawl has been especially relevant in US cities since the 1950s, rapidly spreading to other cities in the rest of the world. This paper studies the case of Spain using recent data. Spanish cities have grown rapidly over the 90s and 2000s. The country has completed the process of urbanization and has suffered the effects of a major real estate bubble. In this context, we are interested in measuring and explaining where and why urban sprawl has appeared in Spanish cities. Digital mapping carried out around the year 2000 providing full coverage of Spain is used to calculate an Urban Sprawl Index. It is applied to all urban areas and municipalities throughout the country, providing an objective, comparable measurement of sprawl and identifying which areas are most affected by this phenomenon. A second stage of analysis is conducted in an attempt to explain the causes of the differences in sprawl among Spanish cities with a regression model based on the literature. We have found that the cases most affected by sprawl are the latest urban developments on the Mediterranean coast as well as certain areas in the vicinity of large cities: the mountains to the north of Madrid and the coastline near Barcelona and Valencia. In some cases, urban sprawl is starting to become a problem for the environment and urban sustainability, with important consequences for the future evolution of the affected cities.     

Convergence and Divergence in the Australian Space Economy

Australia's space economy has changed rapidly since the 1970s through processes of globalisation, economic restructuring and demographic change. Trends in population distribution and patterns of employment and investment in economic activity highlight both spatial diffusion and concentration. Migration to ‘sun belt’ regions and suburban growth in the mega metro regions is creating population-led demand for production and services, thus creating investment growth and new employment in some consumer-oriented economic activities. However many internationally linked and national market serving economic functions are increasingly concentrated in the two largest cities at strategically located old and new nodes of agglomeration. No longer can population growth be equated directly with increased economic activity, and there are significant spatial mismatches between the outcomes of demographic and economic processes across the nation's cities and regions.     

Accounting for internal variation in nationalist mobilization: unofficial referendums for independence in Catalonia (2009–11)

Between September 2009 and April 2011, around one‐half of the Catalan municipalities held unofficial referendums on independence from Spain, in which more than 800,000 citizens took part. However, the participation rates were unevenly distributed across Catalonia. In this paper, using an original data set, we aim to respond to two relevant questions: first, why in some municipalities the referendum took place and in others it did not occur. Second, why did the referendum achieve high rates of turnout in some localities and much lower participation in others. We find that the resources available to the movement, the intensity of the mobilization efforts, the participatory tradition of the municipalities and the size of the nationalist ‘sentiment pool’ in each locality explain to a great extent the internal variation in nationalist mobilization in Catalonia.     

On the Linkage Between the Demographic Processes and Economy of a Region: (with particular reference to Pskov Oblast)

A low rate of natural increase, deriving from a disrupted age-sex structure, and net out-migration combine to account for a steady depopulation of Pskov Oblast. The introduction of industries providing additional male employment is recommended in the two principal cities—Pskov and Velikiye Luki—to correct the present predominance of women in industrial towns. Several measures (modernization of the countryside, promotion of truck-produce farming around the major urban centers) are suggested to keep more young people in rural areas and thus correct the lop-sided age structure there. Economic decision-making is viewed as a key factor in improving the demographic situation of a region.     

Using spatial analysis to estimate depopulation for Native American populations in northeastern North America,AD 1616–1645

Eight years ago, Ramenofsky et al. (2003) characterized the discussion of the impact of Old World diseases on Native American populations as almost exclusively historical in nature. They specifically argued for the application of more evolutionary, genetic, and epidemiological theory to research into this topic. We agree with their assessment and further suggest that such research would greatly benefit from spatial analyses of disease spread as well. Using trend surface analysis of existing ethnohistorical and archaeological data pertaining to population sizes and disease events, we examine the spatiotemporal dimensions of 17th century depopulation in northeastern North America. The subsequent results allow us to predict possible depopulation rates for populations with very little demographic data. Further, our use of biological, historical, and cultural data to interpret the results represents an attempt to provide a more complex explanation for the variability in cultural survivability across the region and several possible avenues for productive future research. We believe research like this can significantly improve our understanding of how Old World diseases affected historic Native American populations and cultures and continue to impact them today.     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

Demographic Change,Differential Ageing,and Public Policy in Rural and Regional Australia: A Three‐State Case Study

This paper takes a differential demographic change in six rural settlement categories within rural and regional Australia as the starting point for the measurement of differential ageing using a Relative Ageing Index which compares ageing in sub‐populations with the national norm. The spatial units employed are 412 rural communities, approximated by social catchments each consisting of a country town and its surrounding dispersed population. The study covers the period from 1981 to 2006 and includes the rural areas of New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, excluding major cities, peri‐urban areas, and the remote rangelands. It examines demographic change and differential ageing in a selection of the rural settlement categories recommended for further analysis in the report of the ‘Demographic Change and Liveability Panel’, one of three advisory panels established in 2010 by the then Commonwealth Government seeking to develop a sustainable population strategy for Australia. Ageing profiles are produced for the whole study area, for the individual rural settlement categories, and for the urban and rural components within each category separately. Results show that differential ageing is least advanced in the ‘regional cities’, most advanced in the ‘sea change’, but of most concern in the agriculture‐based rural settlement categories where it exacerbates the effects of overall population decline. In all categories, ageing in the dispersed rural population element exceeded that of the urban component. Results emphasise the vital role of the ‘regional cities’ category in future public policy development supported by ameliorative and collaborative measures for their surrounding agriculture‐based communities.     

Innovation across cities

This paper examines the distribution of patenting activity across cities in the OECD, using a sample of 218 cities from 2000 to 2008. We obtain three main results. First, patenting activity is more concentrated than population and GDP. Second, patenting activity is less persistent than population and GDP, especially in the middle of the distribution. Third, in a parametric model, patenting does not exhibit mean‐reversion, and is positively associated with GDP and population density. Our results suggest that policymakers can influence the amount of innovative activity through the use of appropriate policies.     

Earthquakes,grants, and public expenditure: How municipalities respond to natural disasters

We analyze the response of municipalities to the occurrence of natural disasters in terms of spending behavior, use of upper-tier transfers and recovery, using balance sheet data of about 8,000 Italian municipalities for the period 2000–2015, and the universe of earthquakes events. We find evidence of increasing expenditure for about 12 years after the shocks, with asymmetric responses between earthquake-related and unconditional grants, and heterogeneous flypaper effects across the country. While in northern municipalities expenditure tends to regress to pre-earthquake levels, southern municipalities stick to higher expenditure levels when grants drop. This evidence is coupled with a faster recovery of private income and housing prices in northern municipalities.     

Grüne Infrastruktur –

Due to climate change, but also because of the demographic change and financial constraints in many municipalities, the future of cities is a currently much-discussed topic. Conflicts over land-use are inevitable: As densification is an essential principle in growing cities, the pressure on open (green) spaces rises. Climate Change and water-management as well as mobility-issues and air-quality confront municipalities with new challenges, in terms of open space planning and greenery in the city. It is necessary to save the existing green in these days of budget-shortage and other priorities in communities. Municipalities have to raise new strategies to strengthen the awareness of the value of green in public and in the local business.     

长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

Alive and Kicking: Municipal Affirmative Action Policy in Texas Cities, 1980s–1990s

This article evaluates the impact of opposition originating at the national level on affirmative action policies in 13 Texas cities in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We find that increased national hostility to affirmative action in hiring and contracting has had little effect on the content and strength of affirmative action programs in Texas municipalities. In fact, most programs have been maintained or strengthened since the 1980s. However, there is no clear and consistent relationship between the strength of municipal programs and either minority political representation or the size of a city's minority population. City size appears to be a relevant, but not decisive, factor in maintaining comprehensive policies. As such, we explore two additional hypotheses—policy time lag and bureaucratic insulation—to account for the survival and strengthening of municipal affirmative action policies in the 1990s.