THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION FROM A LONG‐TERM PERSPECTIVE (1900–2000)*

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the evolution of city size distribution in the United States throughout the twentieth century. It tests the validity of two empirical regularities studied in urban economics: Zipf's law (the rank‐size rule), and Gibrat's law, or the law of proportionate growth. The main contribution of this work is the use of a new database with information on all the cities (understood as incorporated places), without size restrictions. Our results enable us to confirm that Gibrat's law holds (weakly), and that Zipf's law holds only if the sample is sufficiently restricted at the top, not for a larger sample.     

风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟

幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序-规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明：①即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性; ②现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。     

Population,light, and the size distribution of cities

We provide new insights on the city size distribution of countries around the world. Using more than 10,000 cities delineated via geospatial data and a globally consistent city identification scheme, we investigate distributional shapes in all countries. In terms of population, we find that Zipf's law holds for many, but not all, countries. Contrasting the distribution of population with the distribution of economic activity, measured by nighttime lights, across cities we shed light on the globally variant magnitude of agglomeration economies. Deviations from Zipf's law are to a large extent driven by an undue concentration in the largest cities. They benefit from agglomeration effects which seem to work through area rather than through density. Examining the cross‐country heterogeneity in the city size distribution, our model selection approach suggests that historical factors play an important role, in line with the time of development hypothesis.     

Recent Theoretical Paradigms in Urban Growth

The aim of this article is to present a critical view of the theoretical toolboxes developed in urban economics to explain urban city size. The article starts with the consideration that, during the 1960s and 1970s, the question of optimal city-size tended to be expressed in a misleading way. The real issue is not an “optimal city size” but an “efficient size”, which depends on the functional characteristics of the city and on the spatial organization within the urban system. Economies of scale exist up to a certain city size. However, urban development generates conditions leading to structural readjustments which lead to new economic advantages. These structural adjustments may be either sectoral transformations towards higher-order functions, or the emergence of external linkages with other cities. The article provides recent empirical evidence of the role played by urban functions and city networking in explaining urban equilibrium size. The empirical analyses reported here witness the importance of the structural adjustment of cities needed to achieve a higher equilibrium size.     

Tourism,amenities, and welfare in an urban setting

Using data on Italian cities, we document that over the period of 2001–2011, the number of establishments and employment in some key service industries are positively related to the inflow of tourists. We then build a general equilibrium model of small open cities encompassing these empirical features to study the impact of tourism on endogenous consumption amenities, factors’ allocation across sectors, prices, and welfare. We also study the interplay of exogenous historical amenities, tourism, and residents welfare in a system of two cities. When residents are immobile, they are unambiguously better off when they live in a city with richer historical amenities, and thus more tourists, than the other city. When residents are mobile and their welfare is equalized between cities, the strength of consumption amenities becomes crucial to determine whether they are better off living in an urban system where cities are heterogeneous or similar in terms of historical amenities.     

Contesting the Divided City: Arts of Resistance in Skopje

This paper examines issues of power and resistance in “divided cities”. Basing my analysis on fieldwork I carried out in Skopje, Macedonia, I look at how urban space may be constructed and used by hegemonic groups as a means of asserting their power and how, in turn, the city may be a place of resistance where power is contested and public space reappropriated. Drawing on Lefebvre's perspective on the production of space, I compare the conceived city to the lived city and examine how urban inhabitants may resist the division of the city and challenge hegemonic representations. I also draw on Debord's psychogeography to define an artistic, active and participatory approach to urban space through which the inhabitants may re‐conquer their right to the œuvre and to the city. I argue that the city as a lived environment may offer narratives other than division and that there are alternatives to the divided city.     

全球化视角下的世界城市网络理论

城市诞生时就相互保持着联系,只有将城市纳入世界城市网络中才能正确把握城市产生和发展的本质。1980年以来在第三次全球化浪潮的背景下,世界生产要素和产品市场开始整合,世界城市的兴起是国际劳动分工在空间上的表达。Cohen、Friedmann、Sassen、Castells和Taylor等学者提出并发展了世界城市理论,世界城市网络理论已经成为研究城市问题的重要框架。联系数据的缺乏长期制约了世界城市网络的实证研究,二十世纪九十年代中期以来学者们创新性地解决了方法论的问题,对世界城市网络的各个层面进行了实证研究。     

The Size Distribution of Cities and Determinants of City Growth in Turkey

The aim of this study is two-fold. Firstly, this study examines the size distribution of cities by using Zipf's law. The second objective of this study is to investigate the effects of determinants of urban growth in Turkey by using the data for the 1980–2007 time period. The main findings of the study show that there is some evidence that Zipf's law holds in Turkey. Moreover, according to the rank-minus-half rule, the results suggest stronger support for Zipf's law in size distribution of the cities. Furthermore, the regression results indicate that fertility rate, location of the city, migration, agglomeration in services and specialization in manufacturing industry have positive impact, whereas schooling rate has a negative effect on growth of the urban population regarding Turkey.     

经济转型期中原城市群地区城镇规模结构演变分析

经济转型期中原城市群地区的城镇规模结构发生了深刻的变化。利用1985年与2003年的人口规模数据,分别对该区进行城镇规模级别结构演变分析、位序-规模分布分析以及规模结构演变数量分析,初步探讨经济转型期中原城市群地区.城镇规模结构的分布状况和演变特征,指出存在的问题,并提出相应的对策。     

HISTORY,INSTITUTIONS, AND CITIES: A VIEW FROM THE AMERICAS*

ABSTRACT Every nation, formally or informally, defines and establishes the lines of political and fiscal authority among its national, regional, and local governments. Historically, centralized governments tend to restrict the power and autonomy of provincial and local governments. In this paper, we exploit the quasi‐experimental distribution of political institutions in the Americas caused by variation in European colonial experience to examine the impact of institutions on urban and local development, specifically on the degree of urban primacy, the size distribution of cities, the number and density of local government units, and the fragmentation of metropolitan areas. We argue that centralization of political power at the national level, as experienced in many countries in Latin America, contributes to urban primacy and a size distribution of cities favoring large cities. Additionally, even in more politically decentralized countries such as Canada and the U.S., variance in political centralization at the provincial (state) level over local governments led to significant divergences in urban primacy, the distribution of city sizes, as well as the form, number, and density of local governments. While we cannot rule out the importance of other factors, our findings suggest that political centralization affects spatial economic development.     

长江三角洲都市连绵区城市规模结构演变研究

本文选取长江三角洲都市连绵区7个年份的城市人口规模数据,分别从城市规模等级结构、首位度、城市规模分形以及城市规模的空间演化等层面对城市规模结构的演变进行了分析,初步揭示了长江三角洲都市连绵区规模结构的分布特征和演变规律,并对其空间演变特征进行了总结。     

Electoral rule and public sector efficiency: Some evidence from Italian municipalities

We study the effect of Law 81/1993, which introduced a different rule for the election of mayors, on the technical efficiency of Italian cities over the period 1998–2006. Since 1993, municipalities below 15,000 inhabitants vote with a single-ballot system, whereas cities above 15,000 inhabitants are subject to a double ballot. We first estimate the output-oriented technical efficiency of municipalities through data envelopment analysis, and then we perform a regression discontinuity design analysis by exploiting the exogenous change in the electoral scheme at the 15,000 inhabitants cut-off. We find evidence that municipalities voting under a double-ballot rule show lower levels of efficiency—in terms of provision of public goods—compared with cities voting under a single-ballot scheme, by about 6.5%. This effect is driven by inefficiencies registered in specific sectors, that is, police, education, and maintenance of roads. Furthermore, the overall lower efficiency of municipalities voting under runoff is related to the different level of educational attainment of elected mayors, whereas it is not driven by the features of Law 81/1993 relating to the number of lists forming a coalition in support of mayoral candidates and to disjoint votes.     

PARETO OR LOG‐NORMAL? BEST FIT AND TRUNCATION IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF ALL CITIES*

In the literature, the distribution of city size is a controversial issue with two common contenders: the Pareto and the log‐normal. While the first is most accredited when the distribution is truncated above a certain threshold, the latter is usually considered a better representation for the untruncated distribution of all cities. In this paper, we reassess the empirical evidence on the best‐fitting distribution in relation to the truncation point issue. Specifically, we provide a comparison among four recently proposed approaches and alternative definitions of U.S. cities. Our results highlight the importance to look at issue of the best‐fitting distribution together with the truncation issue and provide guidance with respect to the existing tests of the truncation point.     

陕西城市规模效益分析

本文首先通过对国内外目前城市规模效益研究状况进行总结,然后,运用灰色关联分析方法对陕西省十三个城市规模效益分别从经济、社会、环境三方面进行实证研究,最后,结合陕西省目前城市规模等级结构特点,提出了城市规模效益达到最佳的策略。     

基于UGIS的广州城市行政区空间特征分析

以1∶400万珠江三角洲行政地图为研究底图,依据城市地理信息系统(UGIS)空间量算理论,运用遥感图象处理软件erdas8.5对行政图作配准处理后并在地理信息系统(GIS)应用软件arcgis9.0下数字化成图,同时,选取伸延率、形状比、紧凑度、紧凑度指数和标准面积指数五项能够反映城市空间形态特征的指标对广州城市行政区空间作了面状目标空间量算。结果表明,该城市内部空间的离散度和破碎度较大,南北方向带状延伸明显,两端的联系不便捷,不利于空间的利用与协调,而且广州城市的地形、地势特征以及区域城市交通网络布局与人口密度的分布趋势也揭示出广州城市空间扩展与布局外向性特征日益明显,正依托广深、广珠两条交通线与周边佛山、东莞等城市进行合作以构建新城市区和功能区,"大广州"区域城市逐步形成。     

City branding in polycentric urban regions: identification,profiling and transformation in the Randstad and Rhine-Ruhr

In polycentric urban regions several distinct cities, none of which is dominant, cooperate and compete with each other to attract inhabitants and firms. In such settings city branding strategies do not solely affect one city, but the entire region. We examined how city branding in the face of ecological modernization, that is, delivering higher added economic value, while lowering environmental impacts, is playing out in the Dutch Randstad and the German Rhine-Ruhr. Our findings show that regional identity formation occurs at the sub-polycentric urban region level, coinciding more with (historical) economic profiles than with planning imaginaries. The Dutch cities profile themselves more along the lines of ecological modernization than their German counterparts. Differences between subregions within each polycentric urban region are also noticeable, where more industrialized regions, such as the Ruhr or southern Randstad focus on ‘green’, ‘liveable’ and ‘knowledge-oriented’, while cities with stronger knowledge-intensive sectors portray themselves as ‘smart’ or ‘sustainable’. Cities generally substantiate their profiles through projects, but a significant gap persists between reality and aspirations for improved environmental conditions. This is especially true for the Dutch cities, where many claims, but little visible action can be observed.     

乡村吸引力研究进展与展望

乡村吸引力是表征乡村地域系统整体功能的新指标,是乡村地理学研究的新领域.提升乡村吸引力是应对乡村衰退、实现乡村振兴的必由之路,开展乡村吸引力理论与实证研究意义重大.基于相关成果的逻辑关联性,从乡村吸引力综合研究、分类研究及相关内容研究三个方面进行文献梳理,并进行简要述评.总体上看,以乡村吸引力为主题的综合性研究尚处于起...     

中国城市间交通流强度的空间格局

以全国321个地级以上行政区为研究对象,基于城市间汽车、火车和航空班次联系测算各城市对外联系强度,通过核密度估计、位序-规模及探索性空间数据分析,对多元交通流视角下城市间交通流强度的空间格局进行提取和解析。研究表明:在整个城市体系中,高位次城市规模凸显,中小规模城市有待于进一步发育。基于公路和铁路联系的城际交通流分别表现为由沿海向内陆逐级减弱、以国家铁路大动脉沿线为中心的核心-边缘结构;基于航空联系的城际交通流表现出高度极化和点状镶嵌特征。     

Applying Policy Termination Theory to the Abandonment of Climate Protection Initiatives by U.S. Local Governments

A considerable amount is known about the factors that influence policy adoption and implementation across different issue areas. Less is known, however, about the factors that influence governments to abandon programs or policies prior to reaching their stated objectives or originally specified end‐points. This article applies termination theory to local climate protection initiatives and examines cities’ withdrawal from the dominant sustainability organization facilitating these efforts. In the face of national government inaction, large numbers of U.S. municipalities voluntarily committed to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and joined the ICLEI's Climate Protection program. After steady membership increases for nearly a decade, ICLEI attained its largest size in 2010 with 565 city members. Over the next 2 years, this number plummeted by 20 percent. Positioned in the literature on policy change, we empirically test three hypotheses for why a substantial portion of cities ended their affiliation with this organization and terminated the explicit climate protection objectives associated with it: (1) political ideology and interest group pressure, (2) fiscal constraints, and (3) perceived program ineffectiveness. Analytical results support the first and third hypotheses. We identify factors that influence the termination of local GHG reduction initiatives and discuss theoretical implications of these findings.     

Population Distribution and Spatial Structure in Transitional Chinese Cities: A Study of Nanjing

Two geographers use population surface model techniques to analyze the distribution of population in Chinese cities. Focusing on Nanjing, they utilize detailed urban land use and building distribution data to develop a productive alternative method to reveal spatial variations in the distribution of inhabitants. The findings indicate that despite suburbanization, Nanjing remains a compact city with a population density that declines rapidly as distance from its central business district increases. Also, suburbanization has been limited to an inner area where population is densely distributed while commercial and office development is less prominent. Lastly, commercial activities influence the distribution of urban inhabitants and suburbanization more significantly than industrial development in suburbia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O15, O18, R12, R14. 9 figures, 3 tables, 37 references.