Probabilistic Regionalization via Evidence Accumulation with Random Spanning Trees as Weak Spatial Representations

Spatial clusters contain biases and artifacts, whether they are defined via statistical algorithms or via expert judgment. Graph-based partitioning of spatial data and associated heuristics gained popularity due to their scalability but can define suboptimal regions due to algorithmic biases such as chaining. Despite the broad literature on deterministic regionalization methods, approaches that quantify regionalization probability are sparse. In this article, we propose a local method to quantify regionalization probabilities for regions defined via graph-based cuts and expert-defined regions. We conceptualize spatial regions as consisting of two types of spatial elements: core and swing. We define three distinct types of regionalization biases that occur in graph-based methods and showcase the use of the proposed method to capture these types of biases. Additionally, we propose an efficient solution to the probabilistic graph-based regionalization problem via performing optimal tree cuts along random spanning trees within an evidence accumulation framework. We perform statistical tests on synthetic data to assess resulting probability maps for varying distinctness of underlying regions and regionalization parameters. Lastly, we showcase the application of our method to define probabilistic ecoregions using climatic and remotely sensed vegetation indicators and apply our method to assign probabilities to the expert-defined Bailey's ecoregions.     

Pro‐Poor Modes of Technical Integration into the Global Econom

Recent evidence indicates that globalization based on technical advances in information technology is creating a dualistic situation in the world economy, whereby the benefits tend to accrue to a narrow group of relatively affluent countries, while the majority lag behind. The purpose of this article is to suggest a framework within which to assess an alternative, pro‐poor form of technical integration into the global economy — in other words, a form of globalization that benefits the poor as well as the rich. The article focuses particularly on the role that can be played by NGOs, aid donors and national governments in this endeavour.     

On the Case: Method in Public and Community Archaeology

This paper seeks to initiate a conversation about methodology in public and community archaeology through an examination of the use of case studies. Case studies enable the exploration of situations that are, by their nature, not easily reduced to statistical data. The challenge is that unless they are carefully structured, case studies may contribute little beyond anecdote to the field. Other disciplines that rely on case studies have addressed the methodological challenges aggressively. This paper explores these issues in four sections: First, the rationale for methodology in public archaeology is examined. Second, actual practice—through analysis of papers published in Public Archaeology and, to a limited degree, in the ‘grey literature’—is reviewed. Third, alternative case study methods, gleaned from diverse disciplines, are presented. Finally, the potential for method-based case study research is illustrated through an example of the use of one such method.     

A Selection Bias Approach to Destination Choice

Research on consumer search behavior commonly envisages destination choice as a two-step process: (1) delineate the search set, and (2) evaluate choices therein. However, much of the empirical work in destination choice—including logit and nested logit formulations—models only the latter, and not the set delineation itself. In the presence of correlation between error terms in set delineation and choice selection, statistical estimators are biased, a problem that Heckman and others have called selection bias. In this paper, an alternative two-stage method is proposed to estimate the parameters of models of set delineation and choice selection. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the properties of these two-stage estimators, and to show the magnitude of bias inherent in traditional methods of estimation.     

Better than Cash,but Beware the Costs: Electronic Payments Systems and Financial Inclusion in Developing Economies

This article considers current proposals for using electronic payments systems to promote financial inclusion — that is, to widen the availability of financial and monetary services in developing countries. While such systems can generate significant savings in the operation of monetary systems, payment services markets are typically uncompetitive and require regulatory and broader state interventions to ensure those savings are widely distributed. The use of those systems to broaden the reach of for‐profit lenders raises a number of concerns, as a growing literature has documented how microcredit initiatives in developing countries have resulted primarily in expansions in consumption credit to households, often under predatory terms. The authors advance two original arguments in this connection. First, the perverse results of many microcredit initiatives reflect the underdevelopment of the areas concerned: without broader development strategies, potentially transformative productive projects are rare and unprofitable to finance. In contrast, widespread unmet consumption needs ensure consumption credit offers lenders a profitable alternative business orientation. Second, and in light of this, electronic payments platforms can contribute to economic development by enabling the establishment of well‐regulated or public systems of electronic ‘narrow banks’ restricted from lending, but capable of widening access to affordable payments, savings and insurance services.     

Iran's “Twenty-Year Vision Document”: An Outlook on Science and Technology

In 2005, Iran outlined its goals in economic, science and technology for the next twenty years, Sanad-e- Cheshm Andaz-e Bist Saleh (The Twenty-Year Vision Document), a working plan to raise the country's ranking to that of the first in the region. This article aims to map Iran's scientific and technological performance over five years since the ratification of the plan. Three main areas of science and technology—the percentage of GDP invested in knowledge, scientific performance and technological performance—were used to compare Iran's scientific output with a set of regional countries. The study revealed that Iran's investment in science to inspire technology (the linear model) has been able to nourish scientific performance in the form of rising publication, whereas the neighboring countries followed a more diversified pathway and inspired science from technological advances. Thus, the number of countries in the region capable of competing with and even outstripping Iran in terms of technological and hence scientific performance has increased.     

Essai de typologie des centres de santé et de services sociaux au Québec

Given the importance of contextual factors—physical, social and institutional environments—for understanding health landscapes, this article examines the situation in the province of Québec and suggests a spatial typology at the scale of the health and social services centres (CSSS). These CSSS provide services for 95 areas which are the finest territorial delineation in terms of health policies since a reform instituted in 2003. While delivery of primary health and social services is defined at this local scale, overall health policy is decided at the provincial scale. The challenge for stakeholders is to supplement their local knowledge with that of the broader context. In this article, we use principal components analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis to identify eight profiles of CSSS. The final results of the cluster analysis demonstrate that two‐thirds of the health and social services centres correspond with two marginally differentiated profiles and the remaining third shows specificities that are highly spatially anchored.     

A New Spatial Optimization Perspective on the Delineation of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

The current method for delineating U.S. metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas (collectively referred to as core‐based statistical areas—CBSAs) is to cluster counties based on the strength of commuting interactions between outlying areas and urban cores. The social and economic integration of a metropolitan or a micropolitan statistical area is operationalized using what we believe is an outdated, monocentric perspective on functional spatial structure: one that fixates solely on inward and reverse commuting. We propose a new spatial optimization model for delineating CBSAs that can better account for polycentric urban structure by considering all intercounty commuting linkages. Our model seeks to find the boundaries that maximize the containment of entire webs of intra‐CBSA intercounty commuting. We apply the proposed method to delineate alternative sets of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas for comparison with the federal government's currently defined (2010 Office of Management and Budget [OMB] standards) official CBSAs. El método actual para delimitar áreas estadísticas micropolitanas y metropolitana en los Estados Unidos (denomidado genéricamente áreas estadísticos nucleares o core‐statistical areas‐ CBSA) consiste en agrupar condados en base a la fuerza de las interacciones de los desplazamientos residencia‐trabajo entre las zonas periféricas y los núcleos urbanos. La integración social y económica de un área estadística metro y micro politana se pone en operación usando un enfoque funcional que los autores consideran obsoleto que se basa en una estructura espacial urbana monocéntrica. Dicho enfoque se limita únicamente a los desplazamientos hacia el interior y de vuelta. Los autores proponen un nuevo modelo de optimización espacial para delinear CBSAs que respresenta mejor una estructura urbana policéntrica que considera todos los desplazamientos entre condados. El modelo busca encontrar los límites que maximizan la inclusión de redes enteras de desplazamientos intra CBSA y entre condados. El método propuesto es aplicado para delinear conjuntos alternativos de áreas estadísticas metropolitanas y micropolitanas y es comparado con los límites oficiales actuales de CBSA proporcionados por gobierno federal (de acuerdo a los lineamientos de la Oficina de Administración y Presupuesto u Office of Management Budget‐OMB) en 2010). 目前用于描述美国大都市区与居住区统计区域（共同地被称为基于核心的统计区域—CBSAs）的方法,主要是基于边远地区和城市核心区间的相互作用强度对郡县进行聚类。大都市区或居住区统计区域社会与经济一体化的运作方式,采用的是一种功能空间结构上落伍的单中心视角,即仅关注内部交换或反向交换。本文提出了一种新的空间优化模型用于描述CBSAs,将所有内部通勤联系考虑在内,能更好地解释多中心城市结构。该模型力图发现能最大化包含内部CBSA通勤联系网的边界。最后,将该模型应用于大都市区和居住区的统计区域描述,并与联邦政府目前定义的官方CBSAs（管理与预算 [OMB]标准2010办公室）进行了对比研究。     

Statistical Analysis of the Distribution of Points on a Network

This paper shows four statistical methods that examine the distribution of points on a network (such as the distribution of retail stores along streets). The first statistical method is an extension of the nearest-neighbor distance method (the Clark-Evans statistic) defined on a plane to the method defined on a network. The second statistical method examines the effect of categorical attribute values of links (say, types of streets) on the distribution of activity points on a network. The third statistical method examines the effect of infrastructural elements (such as railway stations) on the distribution of activity points on a network. The fourth statistical method examines the compound effect of multiple kinds of infrastructural elements (say, railway stations and big parks) on the distribution of activity points on a network. These methods are discussed with empirical examples.     

Three Methods for Detecting Past Groupings: Cultural Space and Group Identity

Grouping techniques employ similarities within data to create new entities, which lend themselves to the interpretation process. This article presents three different grouping approaches, each originally developed independently, and applied to a common dataset of archaeological finds. The aim is not to search for the right approach or results, in a competing way, but rather to present the methods as complementary. It is also our intention to stress that a tight connection between theory and statistical modelling is indispensable. Indeed, the use of a particular methodology must be supported by an adapted theory; similarly, a theory without a proper methodological realisation will often not have any actual utility. The integration of theory and method is exemplified in the three case methods. The first method uses metal objects as cultural indicators. The study area is divided into a set of identical geographical units, characterized according to the type and proportions of indicators and grouped using hierarchical clustering. The second approach deals with cultures as standardisations between individuals, using ‘Typenspektrum’ as significant data for identifying different cultures. Groups are defined through kernel density estimation and a cluster analysis, followed by internal and external validation techniques. A third method characterizes the funerary ritual and grave-goods, using a similarity algorithm coupled with clustering procedures to compare the graves with one another. The outcome is validated with exploratory methods and compared to patterns from different contexts. The complementarity of the results shows that each approach sheds light on a certain facet of the same whole.     

The Invisible Hand that Rocks the Cradle: On the Limits of Time Use Surveys

Almost every intervention in the field of international agricultural development — from microcredit finance to fertilizer subsidies to trade policy — has come to recognize gender, and relationships within households, as important. Yet most interventions continue to treat the household as a ‘black box’, with changes within the household measured by the effects on income, anthropometry, health, or other secondary metrics within bargaining models. In this context, there has been increasing interest in time use studies as a way to peer inside this black box. This article offers a review of methods and identifies some of the difficulties facing time use studies in capturing intrahousehold dynamics, and presents the results of a two‐season simultaneous activity time use study in Malawi which aimed to address these difficulties. The results suggest significant limitations to time use surveys. The kinds of reproductive labour that often interest researchers may be invisible to the women responding to time use surveys, with the result that care work is dramatically under‐reported. The authors discuss the implications of the divergence between researchers’ concerns and the women's reports of their lives for time use surveys, and for feminist development research methods more broadly.     

Statistical Network Analysis for Analyzing Policy Networks

To analyze social network data using standard statistical approaches is to risk incorrect inference. The dependencies among observations implied in a network conceptualization undermine standard assumptions of the usual general linear models. One of the most quickly expanding areas of social and policy network methodology is the development of statistical modeling approaches that can accommodate such dependent data. In this article, we review three network statistical methods commonly used in the current literature: quadratic assignment procedures, exponential random graph models (ERGMs), and stochastic actor‐oriented models. We focus most attention on ERGMs by providing an illustrative example of a model for a strategic information network within a local government. We draw inferences about the structural role played by individuals recognized as key innovators and conclude that such an approach has much to offer in analyzing the policy process.     

Frequency table analysis: Examples from early bronze age axe decoration

This paper describes the use of log—linear models for the analysis of frequency tables and also introduces an alternative technique, “iterative proportional scaling” (IPS). The log—linear approach is illustrated using data on the reliability of reported decoration in a set of Early Bronze Age axes from southern Britain. The method, as implemented in the computer package GLIM, is then applied to data on the decoration of the faces and sides of those axes, divided into two chronological phases to form a three-dimensional table. The same table is analysed using IPS, and the relative advantages and the applicability of the two methods are discussed. The appendices give some practical information on the availability of programs and the computational steps involved in IPS.     

Beyond Oral History: A Nineteenth Century Blackfoot Warriors’ Biographic Robe in Comparative and Chronological Context

Biographic tradition artworks produced on the Great Plains by historic-period Native Americans constitute genuine documents of history, recording—in narrative form—real events that took place in people’s lives. In the early 2000s, a previously undocumented example of a painted robe in the biographic tradition became known (the “Malcolm robe”). Preliminary assessment indicated an origin on the northern Plains, possibly by artists of the Blackfoot Confederation. We first discuss comparative Biographic tradition evidence for the origin of the Malcolm robe, extending previous commentaries on the ethnocultural affiliation of this robe. Several diagnostic features of this robe confirm that its most likely ethnocultural origin was Blackfoot. We also list features that support a case that more than one artist was involved in its production. The central focus of our study here was to more reliably establish a date for the painting of this robe using a series of quantitative and statistical comparisons with better-dated examples of Blackfoot biographic robe art. We apply three different dating methods: frequency seriation, occurrence seriation, and a multivariate statistical method. All three methods consistently indicate that the robe dates prior to 1850, confidently supporting a date of at least that age. The analyses and comparison with other similar robes more tentatively indicate a possible date of production during the 1830s. Further historical research urgently awaits this robe. However, with a date of pre-1850 now reliably secured, the robe takes its place as an early nineteenth century example of Blackfoot biographic art, and as part of the historical legacy that this body of documentary art comprises.     

Distance Distributions and Trip Behavior in Defined Regions

This paper discusses applications of the statistical distribution of distances between random pairs of points in bounded regions. The existing literature on convex figures is first described, and applications of the analytically tractable distributions to point pattern analysis are given. New statistics are then introduced with applications in shape analysis and trip distribution studies. Finally a brief discussion is made of directional bias, and of alternative sampling rules and distance metrics.     

A (Digital) Future for Saharan Rock Art?

First visited by westerners in the mid-nineteenth century, Saharan rock art has since received a great deal of attention. The richness and diversity of this region is recognised by the inclusion on the UNESCO World Heritage list of three properties: Tassili-n-Ajjer in Algeria, Tadrart Acacus in Libya, and Ennedi in Chad. The situation in many North African countries now makes this vast region very difficult to access: safety in the field is not guaranteed and few research funds are available. Today, a new generation of African and foreign scientists has no access to rock art sites in the north of the continent and the lack of fieldwork may entail a lack of safeguard and awareness. The growth of digital technologies over the last 15 years has revolutionised methods for recording rock art sites. Digital technologies are also used to mitigate the gap between artworks and accessibility in those countries where turmoil and social instability make fieldwork impossible. However, much of the documentation and most digital recordings of artworks currently available on the Internet lack an archaeological context. Equally, many of these websites barely mention methodological and theoretical aspects. It is also difficult to understand the extent of awareness among local communities in remote areas—sometimes suffering a digital and linguistic divide—and if (and how) they are genuinely able to exploit these digital resources. Here, I collate some examples from different parts of the Sahara illustrating that the recording, management and dissemination of rock art still present highs and lows. I argue that we should share theories and methods within the digital scientific community, with a view to adopting a shared nomenclature and a public thesaurus, making our cataloguing criteria explicit and, finally, developing an ethical code of conduct involving local communities.     

MULTIVARIATE MIXTURE OF NORMALS WITH UNKNOWN NUMBER OF COMPONENTS: AN APPLICATION TO CLUSTER NEOLITHIC CERAMICS FROM AEGEAN AND ASIA MINOR USING PORTABLE XRF*

Multivariate techniques and especially cluster analysis have been commonly used in archaeometry. Exploratory and model‐based techniques of clustering have been applied to geochemical (continuous) data of archaeological artefacts for provenance studies. Model‐based clustering techniques such as classification maximum likelihood and mixture maximum likelihood have been used to a lesser extent in this context and, although they seem to be suitable for such data, they either present practical difficulties—such as high dimensionality of the data—or their performance gives no evidence that they are superior to standard methods. In this paper standard statistical methods (hierarchical clustering, principal components analysis) and the recently developed model‐based multivariate mixture of normals with an unknown number of components, are applied and compared. The data set provides chemical compositions of 188 ceramic samples derived from the Aegean islands and surrounding areas.     

After thought. Devotion,Teresa de Jesús,and Miguel de Cervantes

ABSTRACT

This article explores the complex landscape of devotion in sixteenth- and seventeenth-century Spain, comparing the legislated Christian-only history of Counter-Reformation with the various alternative strands of belief, faith, and devotion present in a variety of areas of cultural production. The article first examines representations of devotion—and methodologies of reading such representations—in areas of production such as architecture, dictionaries, literature, and the arts; at the end of this first section, it coins the concept of “After Thought” as a reading tool to better comprehend and possibly experience devotion in ways particular to early modern Spain, not merely en cristiano but in multiconfessional forms. “After Thought,” both the tool and the article, follow intellectual engagements with Andalusi (not merely Andalusian) past, present, and future environments in early modern Spain. They also engage alternative somatic dimensions of a different “entendimiento” of Christianity, as described by Teresa de Jesús and practiced by both her and Cervantes. Finally, in reviewing the six ducal chapters of the second part of Don Quijote as a rewriting of Castillo interior, the apocryphal condition of this segment of the novel mobilizes yet another wheel in the Trojan horse of fiction, one that exposes the way in which Cervantes refigures Teresa de Jesús, thus yielding two interactive models of “After Thought” in early modern Spain's arts, religion, and spirituality.     

Realpolitik and Jihad: The Iranian Use of Shiite Militias in Syria

The Shi‘a militias that have been involved in the war in Syria since 2011 were dispatched by Iran from neighboring countries, and they have exploited their position as aid‐givers by implementing a long‐term scheme of Iran regarding Syria. This article seeks to define the purpose and modus operandi of the involvement of these militias in Syria, as a case study of Iranian policy throughout the region. The essence and purposes of this regional policy has been analyzed using realistic and soft power approaches, alongside political thought from the Sh'ia Islam and the fundamentals of the Islamic Revolution; the reflection of this policy in Syria is identified by tracing reports and publications regarding the complicity of the Shi‘a militias in the war. The article claims that war‐racked Syria is a sort of test case for Iran protecting itself by attempting to spread its hegemony — and thus deterrence — across the region, a plan that is combined with and carried out through an ideological Jihadist promotion of an Islamic order. Accordingly, the Shi‘a militias are striving to ensure a lasting foothold for Iran in the areas in Syria that are essential to Iranian regional aspirations, by imposing Iranian political, military, and religious influences among these territories and populations.