国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。     

基于农户视角的农区发展研究

基于河南省11村的1251农户调查数据的分析表明:①农村发展的主要障碍是资金缺乏以及农区发展环境约束,农民自身素能(如缺乏技术、文化水平低等)也有一定影响。②农区发展中最希望得到的外部支持是给项目建厂或提供资金支持,还有一些农户期望政府提供其他发展生产上的帮助。③农户对未来的期望以改善生活条件为主,且随着未来时间段的变长,他们的总体期望变得更加模糊。④多数农户(占样本71.58%)对其生活现状"基本满意"或"满意"。⑤农户对其发展的考虑,受多种因素的影响。其中家庭收入状况、受教育水平、地理环境等的作用更为明显。基于农户视角对农区发展的分析,对有关农区发展政策的设计有借鉴意义。     

From left-behind children to young migrants: the intergenerational social reproduction of rural migrant labor in China

ABSTRACT

Growing in number in the last two decades, rural migrant workers in China have completed intergenerational replacement, and young migrants have become a principal part of the migrant population. However, the process of such intergenerational reproduction has not been thoroughly examined. Based on field studies in the Chinese countryside, this paper analyzes the mechanisms of intergenerational reproduction of rural migrants from the perspective of rural communities, families, and school education. “Left-behind” rural communities, their migration-oriented social culture, and the cognition of rural–urban differences as constructed through migrant parents facilitated a subjective willingness for migration among left-behind children. Exclusion from urban-biased rural education is often the final external thrust for their migration. Having finished the transition, the households of a new young generation of rural migrants are experiencing a different crisis of reproduction. This paper argues that there is a systematic rupture between labor, households, and rural society and that this presents a critical development trap for China.     

Demographic events and economic conditions of rural households in Bangladesh

Demographic events, such as death of adults and marriage of children, place a heavy burden on household economy, while economic and labour migration may lessen the burden. This study examined the effects of demographic events on economic condition of rural households in Bangladesh. Household possessions of durable assets in the Matlab demographic surveillance area in 1996 and 2005 were used to calculate asset scores, a proxy for long-term economic condition. Events of adult (aged 15–59 years) death and marriage of girls during 1996–2005 were associated with lower asset scores in 2005 compared to households with no such events. Out-migration of adult males, but not females, to urban areas or other countries and marriage of boys were associated with higher asset scores in 2005 compared to households with no out-migration or boy's marriage. Findings suggest that the government should attach high priority to adult health, abolition of dowry, and encourage out-migration.     

乡村旅游对贫困山区农户多维贫困的影响研究

在分析乡村旅游对农户多维贫困影响机理的基础上,利用陕西4市22个乡村旅游扶贫村农户调查数据,采用内生转换回归模型,定量分析了乡村旅游对贫困山区农户多维贫困的影响。研究发现：多维贫困程度越深,农户参与旅游比例越低,乡村旅游不具有天然益贫性;参与旅游能够显著减缓农户的多维贫困。从单维贫困看,乡村旅游对调查地农户的经济、教育、生活水平和权利维度具有显著的减贫效应,其中对生活水平的减贫效应最大,健康维度效应不显著;参与和未参与乡村旅游的农户在多维贫困以及经济、生活水平维度的减贫影响因素存在着显著差异,而在教育、健康、权利维度的减贫影响因素差异不大。据此,从乡村旅游经营、精准帮扶、权益保障等方面提出对策建议。     

Independent Child Migration and Education in Ghana

Drawing on interviews with young migrants who have moved from rural, farming households in northeastern Ghana to rural and urban households in central and southern Ghana, this article explores the inter‐connections between children's migration and children's access to formal and non‐formal education. In contrast to the positive light in which education is usually presented, the findings of the research suggest a more ambiguous and complex picture, and illuminate both positive and negative aspects of the linkages between education and children's independent migration.     

Winters without women: social change,split households and gendered labour in rural Mongolia

In this article, I use absence as a lens to explore social change and masculinity in rural Mongolia, with a focus on household splitting during winter months. Since the breakdown in state-sponsored dormitory systems, many mobile pastoralists split their households to accommodate children during the school year. This results in women moving to settled centres while men remain in pastures to care for livestock. In critical reflections on rural work, both male and female herders have underscored concerns around the absence of women in rural homes. In Mongolia, absence has different implications for men and women, gendered division of labour and social roles, which are tied to household economies and pastoralist work practices. Drawing from ethnographic field research, the cases contribute to understandings of the co-constitutive nature of space and society, and attempts to dislodge ideas about the fixed nature of households in rural Mongolia.     

Changing trends in international marriages between Korean men and Southeast Asian women, 1993–2013

Korea witnessed a large increase in the fraction of men marrying spouses from Southeast Asia. In the 1990s, about one per cent of Korean men’s new marriages were to Southeast Asian women but by 2005, this increased to over nine per cent with even higher rates in rural areas. With the use of a logit model and Marriage Register data from 1993–2013, the determinants of international marriages are explored using a more rigorous approach and over a longer period of observation compared to previous studies. Older Korean men with lower socioeconomic status were more likely to marry a woman from Southeast Asia (compared to a fellow Korean). The predictors of international marriage differed depending on the wife’s birth country: if the wife had some college education there was a higher probability of marriage to a Filipino woman, but less likely to a woman from China or Vietnam, compared to marriage to a Korean woman. Finally, over the past two decades the education level, age at marriage, and country of origin of the foreign wives have changed substantially. The data shows fewer women migrating from China (of which about 70% are ethnically Korean), and a rising number from Vietnam. This ‘marriage migration’ has implications for the demographics, ethnicity, and occupational composition of those living in Korea.     

Leaving children behind: a win-win household strategy or a path to pauperization?

ABSTRACT

There has been a scholarly debate on the impact of cityward labor migration on the children left behind in rural China. The present article explains why the attempt by some scholars to normalize the separation of parent and child as a “win-win” household strategy is problematic. Based on scholarly insights into China’s rural–urban dual system, this article clarifies that the emergence of left-behind children in rural China is one of the direct consequences of the dual system imposed upon migrant parents instead of a “voluntary” choice by them. This article contends that even though many rural households benefit from incomes generated through parental migration for the time being, constrained by the dual system, the cost of their children’s lack of secure parent–child bonding, low-quality education, kinship care, and rampant delinquency will eventually outstrip that economic gain in the long run. In particular, in an era that requires ever-updating knowledge and skills, poorly educated left-behind children are likely trapped in the lowest rung of society’s ladder and, therefore, are prone to continue on the path to pauperization.     

江汉平原农户日常休闲变迁及其影响因素研究

基于江汉平原京山市乡村抽样调查和实地访谈数据，通过指数分析揭示农户日常休闲变化特征，运用回归分析透视影响因素。结果显示：研究期内农户日常休闲以“娱乐消遣”为主要类型，但已呈现多样化、新兴化趋势；以“自家”为主要区位，但家外化、远程化特征显现；以“自家娱乐消遣型”为主流模式，但“手机/网络”为代表的“自家学习发展型”休闲增长迅速。乡村休闲发展水平受需求因素和供给因素“双轮驱动”，农户个体休闲“惯性依赖”特征显著。研究结果能够为中国传统农区人地关系变化及乡村振兴战略实施提供科学依据。     

Why Illness Causes More Serious Economic Damage than Crop Failure in Rural Cambodia

In rural Cambodia, illness has caused more serious economic damage to rural households than crop failure. This article explores the reasons for this using data on the strategies adopted by households in two Cambodian villages to cope with these different types of shock. The data show that Cambodian households can cope with crop failure by earning additional income. However, to cope with illness, which entails lump‐sum treatment costs, they have to borrow money or sell their assets, because households cannot acquire the necessary funds in a short period just by earning additional income. Combined with the harsh conditions of credit markets (high interest rates, strict debt collection and credit rationing), and weak risk‐sharing among households, this results in illness causing a large number of land sales in the surveyed villages.     

Filipino Migration to Australia: The Image and a Geographer's Dissent

The Filipino population of Australia now exceeds 50,000 persons and has shown consistently high growth rates, doubling every four years since 1961. Almost no research on their population as a whole is available; but a substantial literature exists on that female portion of it which migrated to Australia for marriage. That portion b approximately one-third and is declining in relative significance. Results of analysis of 1986 Census data and a survey of 350 Filipino households are reported There appear to be significant differences in the distributional patterns of wholly and partly Filipino households which have implications for future growth and which are themselves apparently based on long-standing distributional variations in Australian masculinity ratios     

西部地区农户经济的空间差异及其发展对策

西部不同地带生态条件的优劣差异决定了西部地区农户经济的空间差异,劣等、中等、优等三类生态条件相应地发育出贫困、温饱、富裕三类群落的农户经济。西部各类农户经济的发展有着不同困难,贫困群落农户脱贫面临人口压力大与生态环境脆弱矛盾突出,及农户人均财政负担重,财政支农能力差的困难,已得温饱的农户面临收入与文化素质低、可带动农户从事产业化经营的企业少的困难,富裕农户面临生产要素流失严重,制度创新滞后的困难。由政府主导,以多种手段、方式带动贫困农户脱贫致富;扶持建立农业合作经营组织,促进已得温饱农户发展农业产业化经营;以制度创新推动富裕农户经济的进一步发展,是应采取的针对性对策。     

Women endangered,says world population report

This report highlights key points from the UN Population Fund's "State of World Population 1997," which focused on women's right to choose in matters relating to reproductive health. The report documents global progress toward achieving reproductive rights for women and recommends more funding for reproductive health care and family planning and increased efforts to promote gender equality and individual rights. International agreements protect: the right to reproductive and sexual health throughout the life cycle; voluntary choice in marriage and childbearing and the means to determine when to have children; equality and equity in all spheres for men and women; and freedom from sexual violence and coercion. When these rights are denied, the result is maternal mortality (a death every minute). There is a lack of access to contraceptive services that affect 350 million women. Unsafe abortions are performed on 20 million women, of whom 70,000 die. There is a lack of access to sex education and services for teenagers that results in HIV infections and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). 1.5 million die from HIV/AIDS related causes, and another 1 million die from reproductive tract infections and STDs. Teenagers represent about 50% of the 333 million new cases of HIV and STDs that occur each year. Female genital mutilation is performed on 120 million girls and women, and 2 million are at risk each year. 2 million girls aged 5-15 years enter the commercial sex trade each year. The report documents the suffering from anemia and malnutrition and complications from pregnancy.     

Elderly widowhood in China

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)—with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.     

Resolving Risk? Marriage and Creative Conjugality

The idea of rural women as risk‐averse food producers has been powerful and persistent and constitutes one of our most enduring generalizations. This contribution begins with some critical thoughts about the prevalent consensus on women and risk behaviour and goes on to discuss some counter examples of risk‐taking women farmers in Zimbabwe and Zambia. It argues that risk behaviours of these kinds are strongly related to the character of marriage and forms of conjugality, and considers more broadly how insurance and dependence are gendered. There is a danger of overdrawing, and exclusively emphasizing, household and marriage as sites of gender subordination and thereby losing sight of the value to women of domestic groups and the existence of class‐based solidarities and emotional investments, across gender, which are intertwined with gender subordinations. To recognize these (and other) positive aspects of institutions of kinship and marriage, without simultaneously endorsing subordination, requires a focus on change and women's agency within such institutions, and the happy thought that there is no such thing as the status quo. This study therefore considers myths made within different but overlapping contexts; first the idea of women as reliably risk averse (as well as disadvantaged in access to insurance) which holds sway in international development organizations and some gender analysis; and second, the myth of households as composed of entirely separate individuals with opposed gender interests, in which marriage is predominantly a contract legitimating the exploitation of women. Marriage works as a safety net for women in many contexts, as a form of insurance, but it may become an impediment to accumulation — a feature shared with other social security institutions.     

经济地理学中的农户研究

中国目前约有2/3的人口生活在农村,农村地区的发展成为中国区域发展中令人关注的大问题。然而,经济地理学在农区发展的研究中,存在一个明显的缺陷,既大多数研究均忽视了农区经济中最基本的单位-农户。文章分析了忽视农户对地理学研究的局限,论述了农户与农区的关系,评述了国内外的相关研究成果,提出在经济地理学的农户研究中,应加强农户发展环境研究、基于农户的农区发展模型研究、农户与地理环境相互作用研究、基于农户的农区发展战略研究。     

THE EFFECT OF YOUTH POVERTY RATES AND MIGRATION ON ADULT WAGES

We created a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to analyze the effects of youth county poverty rates on the adult earnings of white male migrants. We estimate a log wage equation that includes human capital measures, migration types, county poverty rates, and a rural–poverty rate interaction variable. Growing up in a rural county has a negative impact on adult wages independent of youth county poverty rates, but the rural effect is significantly greater for those who grew up in high poverty counties. Youth county poverty rates indirectly affect wages through the returns to migration.     

Women’s education,time use and marriage in Iran

In many parts of the world, higher education has increased female chances of paid work and reduced the economic benefits of marriage. In Iran, however, female labour force participation has remained in low rates despite considerable improvements in female education. In the absence of direct economic benefits of education for women, this paper uses data from the 2009 Time Use Survey, representing urban areas of Iran, to explore another pathway of the impact of education on transition to marriage. It is postulated that female education can lead to later marriage by changing women’s role priorities, at least in two ways. While enrolment in education is time-consuming and incompatible with requirements of marital life, higher education can increase the chances and desire for engagement in alternatives to the roles related to marriage. The findings provide partial support for both explanations. These findings not only deepen our understanding about differentials in the time use and the potential pathway of the impact of female education on marriage, but also provide important information for policy makers who are concerned with marital and fertility behaviours of the large cohort of young educated women in Iran.     

宋代县望等级的划分标准探析

宋代县望等级制度基本承袭唐代,按“政治地位”和“户口”两大标准划分。但唐宋县望等级存在不少差异,其中的演化少不了后周制度的作用和影响,后周时期,望县、紧县失去按“政治地位”划分的资格,转而按“户口”划分。这一制度被宋代继承,实质是受次赤、次畿县的冲击影响。北宋前期,诸府属县严格按“政治地位”标准划分,与诸州属县按“户口”划分形成鲜明对比。至北宋末年,府、州政区属县等级“泾渭分明”的划分格局被打破,次府属县等级开始转向按照“户口”划分。唐宋划分县望等级的“户口”含义有所不同,唐代完全依据户数,宋代则根据纳两税的“主户”数,这一差异变化也与后周制度有很大关系。北宋前期,动态划分县望等级的政策得到了执行;到后期,则出现了“户口多而县望等级低”等脱离实际的现象,提升县等的户口标准成为解决县等与户口脱节问题较为务实的方案。