TRENDS AND CYCLES IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET, 1947–48

In this study, systematic movements in the composition of the Federal budget are studied, using a simple statistical structure which distinguishes trend, cyclical, and price-indexing phenomena. Using NIA data on budget expenditures and receipts, it is found that share movements on both sides of the budget are dominated by trends. Among expenditure categories, the shares of transfer programs show strong upward trends while the defense purchases share has beentrending strongly downward. On the revenue side, the shares represented by social insurance contributions and personal income taxes have been trending upward at the expense of corporateincome taxes and indirect taxes. Significant cyclical and price-indexing responsiveness is shown by several expenditure and revenue categories. A noteworthy finding is that the estimates show little evidence of structural change over 1947-1978, suggesting that the trend and otherforces found to be significant are not of recent origin but have been at work over the whole period.     

THE MISSISSAUGA TRAIN DERAILMENT AND EVACUATION, 10–16 NOVEMBER 1979

The evacuation of a quarter of a million residents of the city of Mississauga, Ontario, in the aftermath of the derailment of a freight train carrying hazardous materials on 10 November 1979, was, at that time, the largest peacetime evacuation ever conducted in North America. It took place with little panic or injury, no deaths, and no apparent resistance to evacuation advice. Not surprisingly, then, the success of the Mississauga evacuation has attracted the interest, and raised the hopes, of emergency planners, governments, and industry officials in North America and many other countries. These groups want to understand the reasons for the success of the evacuation, and, if possible, to transfer the effective elements of the Mississauga emergency plans and response procedures to their own jurisdictions. Their concerns reflect the wider search for a model of public decision-making under threat which would identify and link cirtical factors, decisions, and behaviour, and which would provide a framework for emergency planning and research.     

THE TSIMSHIAN, THE HUDSON'S BAY COMPANY, AND THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE NORTHWEST COAST FUR TRADE, 1787–1840

The paper examines the first half-century of the fur trade on the Northwest Coast from the perspective of its First Nations participants. It focuses on the array of initiatives taken by Ligeex, a prominent Tsimshian chief, to insert non-native traders within the geopolitics of the indigenous world. The reconstruction is undertaken by linking Tsimshian oral narratives with Euro-American documentary sources.
ľarticle traite des cinquante premiéres années du commerce des fourrures sur la côte nord-ouest du point de vue des participants membres des Premiéres Nations. II se concentre sur la série ďinitiatives entreprises par Ligeex, un chef tsimshian de premier rang, afin ďincorporer les commerçants allochtones à la géopolitique du monde indigéne. La reconstruction est effectuée en reliant des narrations de la tradition orale tsimshiane à des sources documentaires euro-américaines.     

REGION, AGENCY, AND POPULAR MUSIC: THE NORTHWEST SOUND, 1958–1966

Through the method of reconstituted regional geography, this paper explores the origins, development, and demise of a regional popular musical phenomenon, known as the Northwest Sound. Renowned for the rock classic 'Louie Louie, 'the music of the Pacific Northwest was a product of local geographic conditions within the context of the state of popular music in the late 1950s and early 1960s. This tension between structure and human agency resulted in a period of musical creativity that epitomized teenage social life in the region, but which had limited impact beyond the local area at the time. The passing of the Northwest Sound helped mark the integration of a frontier into the mainstream of North American culture.
Par la méthode ďon;une géographie régionale reconstituée, cet essai examine les origines, le développement et la mort ďon;un phénomène musical, régional et populaire connu comme le 'son du nord-ouest. Renommée pour son rock tube 'Louie Louie, la musique du nord-ouest du Pacifique était un produit des conditions géographiques locales dans le contexte de la musique populaire de la fin des années cinquante et du début des années soixante. De la tension entre structure et ouvrage humain résulta une période de créativité musicale qui fut le modèle même de la vie des jeunes de la région mais qui eut peu ďon;impact au delà de la région cette époque. La disparition du 'son du nord-ouest' marque ľon;integration de la musique régionale dans le courant principal de la culture nordaméricaine.     

GROWTH AND FLUCTUATIONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE OECD, 1964–1984

Time series for industrial production covering the period 1964 to 1984 for 16 countries of the oecd are analyzed in order to measure the trends in production and to study the diffusion patterns of cyclical fluctuations within the system. The dramatic growth at the beginning of the period is unequally distributed, favouring industrializing countries, such as Greece and Spain, as well as Japan, which joins the ranks of oecd leading nations during this period. Along with Germany, Japan becomes a key indicator of the system as a whole, its short term performance being highly correlated with most countries of the oecd, whereas that of the U.S.A. becomes quasi-isolated .
On a analysé les séries chronologiques de la production industrielle pour la péride 1964 à 1984 pour seize pays de l'ocde afin d'évaluer les tendances, et étudier la structure des variations cycliques au sein du système. La croissance vertigineuse au début de période s'avère inégalement distribuée, favorisant les pays en voie d'in-dustrialisation tels que la Grèce et l'Espagne ainsi que le Japon qui rejoint alors le rang des pays les plus impor-tants. C'est d'ailleurs le Japon qui constitue avec l'Alle-magne l'indicateur clé pour tous les pays de l'ocde, sa performance à court terme reflétant sensiblement la situation de l'ocde dans son ensemble, alors que celle des Etats-Unis apparat isolée .     

ETHNICITY AND THE RURAL ECONOMY: ILLUSTRATIONS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA, 1961–1971

V ariation in behaviour stemming from cultural differences has long been recognized as a possible key influence on attitudes towards economic development. The seminal work of Max Weber (1958) relating economic performance to religious allegiances is an obvious example. However, variations in the attitudes of economic actors may also derive from differences in endowments stemming from ethnic heritage. In Canada, for instance, the role of the British group in dominating corporate directorships has been well documented (Porter 1957) and is of special significance in a nation attempting to establish a balanced power situation between its Anglophone and Francophone elements. The problems of attaining cultural equality in Canada are, of course, compounded by the concentration of the Francophone element in Quebec and this spatial concern introduces new complexities in prescribing solutions.