基于GIS的中国省际人口迁移流的空间特征分析

文章基于中国第五、六次人口普查与2005年1%人口普查数据资料,采用流数据分析方法,运用GIS空间分析技术,选用省际人口迁移的最大联系线、最大迁出流、最大迁入流、期望线、迁移效率、粗迁移率等方法系统地研究了我国1995-2010年间省际迁移的时空动态特点及其区际联系。结果表明:全国省际人口迁移的流动性不断增强,东部地区更明显;省际最大人口迁出与迁入流反映了中国省际区域间空间相互作用整体框架,全国大致可以分为3个人口吸引片区和5个辐射片区;省际最大净迁移流主要分布在东南沿海地区,中、西部地区分布较少,其空间分布与各省的MEI_(i)指数密切相关。     

Migration and regional inequality: changing characteristics of China’s economic inequality

Scholars studying economic inequality in China have maintained that regional inequality and economic divergence across provinces have steadily increased over the past 30 years. New studies have shown that this trend is a statistical aberration; calculations show that instead of quickly and sharply rising, regional inequality has actually decreased, and most recently, remained stable. Our study suggests that China’s unique migratory regime is crucial to understanding these findings. We conduct a counterfactual simulation to demonstrate how migration and remittances have mitigated income inequality across provinces in order to show that without these processes, we would have seen more of a rise in interprovincial income inequality. We conclude by arguing that inequality in China is still increasing, but it is changing and becoming less place-based. As regional inequality decreases, there are signs that point to the increasing importance of interpersonal inequality.     

江苏省区域经济差异与发展战略演变初探

改革开放以来,江苏省分别实施了区域均衡发展、非均衡发展、区域共同发展和苏北大发展战略,造成了各区域间经济增长速度的差异,导致区域经济发展失衡,其主要表现为苏南、苏中与苏北三大经济区域间的差异和县域经济差异的不断扩大。在分析了现阶段江苏省沿江开发战略对区域发展差异的影响,立足区域整合的角度,提出加快沿江开发与苏北互动发展的对策与措施,以期实现江苏省区域经济的协调发展,扭转南北经济差异进一步扩大的趋势。     

Regional inequality in China during its rise as a giant exporter: A value chain analysis

China's exports success has implications for regional income inequality, because most of its export products are manufactured in the coastal zone. We propose a value chain-based accounting framework to quantify the contributions of exports to regional income inequality. We employ newly developed interregional input–output tables for China, which distinguish between processing export activities and ordinary export activities. We analyze the period 2002–2012, the decade during which China became the “Factory of the World.” We find that an RMB of processing exports contributed much more to regional inequality than an RMB of ordinary exports or domestic final demand. Still, changes in regional inequality (increasing in 2002–2007 and decreasing between 2007 and 2012) are much more due to rising ordinary exports in the first subperiod and the growth of domestic final demand coupled with changes in the configuration of value chains in the second.     

三江平原垦区经济发展差距及其与产业结构的关联分析

作为一种以农业专业化和规模化生产为主要特征的经济地域类型,垦区经济增长和产业结构具有鲜明的区域特色。本文采用基尼系数和灰色关联模型,探讨了三江平原垦区经济发展差距变化特征及其与产业结构的关联性。研究结果表明:①2000年以来垦区经济差距呈现先缩小后增大的趋势,农场间人均农业资源占有量的不同是垦区经济差距产生的重要基础。②垦区经济发展变化与各产业集中度变化密切相关,三次产业基尼系数变化引起的集中效应是导致垦区经济发展差距变化的主要原因。③农垦区经济发展水平与农业发展关系最为密切,多数农场经济发展仍依赖于农业综合生产能力的提高。应积极推进垦区农业现代化进程,培育非农产业集群和新的增长点,以提高垦区整体经济实力。     

开封市产业空心化的历史考察

无论发达国家或是发展中国家,都会面临着产业空心化问题。通过对开封市经济数据的分析及实地调研,发现开封市的产业空心化属于离制造业现象:经济地位明显下降,固定资产日渐减少,工业发展缓慢且结构不尽合理,第三产业比重低且结构失衡。指出开封市产业空心化具有欠发达区的共性特征-贫困恶性循环积累性,同时也是其特定的区位条件所引致的。最后提出开封市产业空心化的防治措施:以增强技术创新为核心,进行体制机制、科研体制、教育制度创新及人才的激励机制等;以需求结构变化为导向,调整、优化产业结构,加强财政、金融改革及基础设施的支持力度;加速完善硬件设施,改变市区的对外联系等。     

Regional Analysis of China's Green GDP

A Chinese economist and U.S.-based economic geographer investigate China's move toward introducing "greener" measures of economic output to better assess the environmental costs associated with the country's recent economic development. More specifically, the authors applied a model of green gross regional product (GGRP) that adjusts for the costs of growth arising from negative environmental externalities. They then conduct a spatial analysis of the indicator's distribution across China's provinces in 2007 in an attempt to better understand the factors explaining its patterns. The analysis indicates that once environmental externalities in the form of industrial wastes are accounted for, the coastal—inland divide that traditionally describes China's geography of income inequality is much less obvious. Rather a more diffuse pattern emerges, in which some poor provinces are found to be relatively efficient regional producers whereas certain wealthier ones are not.     

Regional Wage Inequality in China, 1996-2010

This paper examines regional wage inequality in China between 1996 to 2010, subdividing that time span into a period of increased wage inequality during 1996-2002 and one of stable to decreasing inequality for 2003-2010. Based on the interplay between wage levels and wage growth, the authors develop a typology whereby China's provinces can be assigned to either peripheral, emerging, lagging, or leading regions. The particular characteristics associated with each type of wage region, and the factors underlying shifts of particular provinces from one category to another between the two periods, enable them to identify specific causes for the reversal (after 2002) of the trend toward increasing wage inequality (the causes especially reflect wage patterns in the mining and energy industries, information and communication technology industries, and foreign-invested enterprises). The recent wage convergence involves instances of both interior provinces advancing from the "emerging" to the "leading" wage category as well as the decline of a few "leading" coastal provinces to "lagging" status.     

Spatial Analysis of Regional Inequalities in Turkey

In this paper, we examine regional inequalities in Turkey not only at the interprovincial level but for three different regional definitions as well. It has raised questions about inequalities not only between regions (interregional) but inequalities within each region. Hence, one contribution of this paper is to test the effects of aggregation and scale on the identification of regional inequalities using currently accepted spatial analytic methods. The results indicate that overall inequalities are decreasing; however spatial dependence is becoming more dominant. The Theil Index indicates that interregional inequalities are increasing while intraregional inequalities are declining for all spatial partitions from 1980 to 1997. Most developed provinces are enhancing overall inequalities, although there is some evidence of a spread effect on their neighbours.     

区域海洋经济发展的结构性演进特征分析

产业结构和空间结构问题,是经济地理学和区域经济学研究经济发展问题的核心命题。本文从区域视角,在海洋经济的实质及其区域经济特性分析的基础上,应用区域产业结构和空间结构的基本理论,揭示了区域海洋经济的结构性特征及其演进的基本规律,以期为海洋经济发展战略与规划的制定提供依据。     

甘肃经济空间结构的现状、问题与战略选择

区域经济空间结构和产业结构一样是不断发展变化的经济结构,具有向合理化和高级化变化的趋势。本文从区域经济空间结构要素的角度详细的考察了甘肃城市体系、交通体系和经济集中区的情况。其次,重点分析了甘肃经济空间结构的特征及其问题,得出了许多有意义的结论。最后,通过把区域经济空间结构理论与甘肃具体省情相结合,提出了甘肃"大十字"经济空间结构的发展战略,同时分析了实施这种发展战略的意义。     

长江三角洲技术扩散规律及其对策初探

技术扩散已经成为决定区域高新技术产业乃至区域经济可持续发展的重要因素,从时间尺度上看,区域技术扩散速度呈现"S"型分布。本文论述了我国经济技术较为发达的长江三角洲地区的技术扩散历程、态势、不同等级的技术扩散中心,在此基础上,提出了提高认识、建立区域技术扩散体系,发挥企业主体作用等促进技术扩散的对策建议。     

区域经济联系测度方法述评

区域研究是地理学的核心之一。区域经济联系测度是区域研究的焦点。在系统总结区域经济联系测度的理论与方法的基础上,本文认为区域经济联系测度一般依循尺度确定-区域划分-区域联系测度的路径;测度区域经济联系的主要指标有可达性、经济影响范围、经济联系强度、经济隶属度等。城市在区域网络中的作用、位置是区域经济联系测度的重点。通过区域经济联系强度的测度,有助于区域和城市发展定位,并指导规划。近年来城市化、信息化、全球化的快速发展对区域经济联系的测度提出了新的挑战,需要综合不同的方法或发展新方法来应对。     

Emergence of the American manufacturing belt: an interpretation

This study proposes that the American manufacturing belt emerged during the antebellum years as a replicated set of regional industrial systems. A broad-based set of demands spurred the growth of regional manufactures, including the pivotal producer durables sector. Eastern regions industrialized first, and they were followed by frontier regions in the Midwest. The relative importance of regional market manufactures declined over time and multiregional/national market manufactures increased. Regional industrial systems became increasingly specialized; the result was higher levels of interregional trade in industrial specialties. The decline of regional market manufactures eroded the bases for the emergence of regional industrial systems by the 1860s. The westward spread of the manufacturing belt ended, and internal differentiation and structural change within the belt were characteristics of late nineteenth century industrialization. The South failed to join the manufacturing belt during the antebellum years because regional demands for manufactures were insufficient to support important regional industrial systems. It lacked the bases to participate significantly in late nineteenth century industrialization.     

环北部湾海洋经济圈发展研究

随着海洋世纪潮的全球涌动,实施海洋经济开发已成为中国经济和社会发展的重要战略取向。而横跨中越两国边境的北部湾海洋经济区,是中国西南地区出行东盟国家的必经通道,具有重要的国际合作开发价值,所以已经纳入海洋区域开发和西部大开发的国家战略安排。为此,考察北部湾海洋经济区的基本结构,依托自身优势打造北部湾海洋经济圈;发挥区域内核心城市的引擎功能,促进北部湾海洋经济区协调发展;充分利用海洋资源禀赋,依据西部大开发政策打造环北部湾海洋经济圈,使之成长为中国与东盟的区域性物流基地、跨国境商贸基地、现代制造业基地和国际信息交流中心,应当从研讨课题推进到合作开发实践。     

新时期粤港澳区域整合发展的若干制约因素及调控

区域整合是基于市场机制与宏观调控背景下构建区域产业、基础设施、城市网络等结构与功能协调发展的机制。自结束了长期分离的格局后,粤港澳三地以制造业为主的分工合作关系及外向型基地初步形成。但从积极融入全球经济体系,提升区域竞争创新能力的要求看,目前仍存在机制不健全,各自为政,重复建设和盲目竞争等弊端。从整合体制、统一规划、调整结构等战略角度出发,形成有序的城镇格局,优化资源配置,建设国际化体系和高新技术基地,使珠三角成为21世纪全球重要的"都会经济区"和亚太地区制造业、金融、贸易发展的龙头,应是三地政府共同面对的职能。     

实施区域倾斜政策逐步缩小我国地区经济发展差距

本文根据区域政策在地区经济发展和地区差距变动中的作用,提出应当对我国中西部地区实施区域倾斜政策,以实现控制地区相对差距不再扩大的第一步目标和地区绝对差距逐渐缩小的第二步目标。指出这一区域倾斜政策应当是一个兼顾效率与公平的区域政策,是一个向重点地区和重点领域倾斜的区域政策,是一个包括经济优惠、社会公平和生态补偿等方面手段的区域政策。     

A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

东北地区经济空间极化及其驱动因子的定量研究

在对区域经济空间极化相关文献研究综述的基础上,借鉴有关研究方法,遵循从过程到格局、机理,从整体到局部的研究思路,首先以人均GDP为测度指标,综合分析东北三省及其内部各区域经济差异与空间极化的过程与空间格局,接着以人均GDP的极化水平为应变量,以工业总产值、当年实际直接利用外资额、社会商品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资、全员劳动生产率和复合流量的极化水平为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型,分析区域经济空间极化的内在机理。结果表明:①区域经济发展存在空间极化现象,且整体呈现出南强北弱的态势;②哈长经济区和辽中南经济区已初步形成,其中哈长经济区处于明显的集聚阶段,而辽中南经济区扩散效应已开始发挥作用;③地区经济发展的位序排名及其变化表明区域经济发展中心逐步南移;④区域差异和空间极化总体变化趋势基本一致,呈现出先升后降,但总体水平呈上升的变化态势;⑤多元线性回归模型表明各动力因子的作用程度和作用趋势不尽相同,但工业总产值和全员劳动生产率是东北三省及其内部区域经济空间极化演变所共有的主导驱动因子,说明其区域经济发展是一个内生增长过程,并提出应强化市场体制转轨、国有企业改组改革、产业结构升级换代和政府政策的导向作用。     

Spatial Disparities and Economic Development in China, 1953-92: A Comparative Study

It seems to be widely accepted that China's interior development during the Maoist period was based on ‘equality’ considerations, which narrowed Chinese regional disparities. By contrast, the recent coastal development during Deng's reform era has been coined as ‘uneven’ and ‘undesirable’, because it has created tremendous inequalities across the country. However, the findings of this study suggest that the question may not be that simple. This article examines the spatial disparities of economic development in China between 1953 and 1992, focusing on a time-series comparison between the development policies of Mao and Deng, their outcomes and the resulting changes. By using provincial and regional economic and investment data, the article elaborates why Mao's interior development did not lead to a more equitable outcome than Deng's uneven strategy of’ east coastal development’. The findings provide an insight into some of the unexpected outcomes of more than forty years of socialist development, in the realm of economic growth and disparity.