FIRM SIZES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: ESTIMATING LONG‐TERM EFFECTS ON U.S. COUNTY GROWTH, 1990–2000

This paper investigates the role of the business size distribution on income and employment growth in U.S. counties from 1990 to 2000. We measure the business size distribution as the share of employees across nine establishment size categories that range from microfirms (one to four employees) to large firms (1,000+ employees) and using three indices similar to a Gini coefficient. Results show that the business size distribution has a significant impact on county‐level growth patterns. Employment shares in small firms increase employment growth, but decrease income growth. One possible conclusion suggests policies emphasizing small firms and entrepreneurship during times of high unemployment.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

IMPLAN's Induced Effects Identified Through Multiplier Decomposition

An analysis of regional multipliers is developed to reveal a structural flaw in how IMPLAN computes induced effects. This analysis reveals a fixed ratio across sectors between total and Type I employment multipliers, and that IMPLAN's "Type III" income multipliers are inversely related to the average wages in the direct and indirect sectors, and that "Type III" output multipliers are not affected by wages. A multiplier decomposition is developed that separates direct and indirect effects from the induced and further separates the induced impact into relative wage and regional income retention effects. The decomposition is useful in making comparisons among impact models.     

Explaining perceptions of a technological environmental hazard using comparative analysis

This study addresses one of the main research problems in the area of environmental hazard risk—to explain why perception of threat from the same hazard varies between groups. We argue that the cultural theory of risk, explicitly place-contingent ways of life and worldviews that support those ways of life, goes a long way towards explaining risk perception differences in the communities of Kinuso, Fort Assiniboine and Barrhead Alberta. Fifty-five in-depth interviews were conducted within these communities; three of the four communities are closest to the Alberta Special (hazardous) Waste Treatment Facility. A regional donut pattern of interviewee concern is partially explained as differential attachment to ways of life like farming, tourism and hunting for the concerned and amenity-proximate rural living for the unconcerned. These relationships are further supported by worldviews like distrust and sensitivity to equity for the concerned and the price of progress for the unconcerned. Though this study is not about siting process per se, detailed conversations about the siting process indicate that the perceptions of risk (as concern) in the operational phase of this hazard were solidified early on and are likely difficult to change.     

Social Policy for Neoliberalism: The Bolsa Família Programme in Brazil

The Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) is one of the largest conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes in the world. CCTs have been described as a ‘magic bullet’ for development, and PBF is widely regarded as an exemplary programme. Examination of its conceptual underpinnings, features, impact and limitations shows that PBF provides substantial income support to the poorest. However, PBF is also self‐limiting and it can offer only limited long‐term gains to the poor. More significant outcomes require the expansion of the scope of PBF and other social programmes towards the universalization and decommodification of social provision in Brazil.     

MEASURING THE DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH*

The Multiregional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model is introduced to measure the development impact of a transportation system. The MRVIO model is a theoretically flexible, computationally simple, and cost-responsive model. Under the MRVIO model, regional input-output coefficients, trade coefficients, and trade flows become cost responsive and easy to compute. The MRVIO model is employed to measure the development impact of the Arkansas waterway during the period of 1974 to 1978. In the study, the U.S. economy is disaggregated into 3 regions and 35 industrial sectors. The MRVIO model estimates the economic conditions of these 3 regions with and without the waterway in terms of industrial output, income, employment, and trade flows.     

北京都市区就业空间分异与职住空间错位行业识别

城市就业空间分异与职住空间错位是反映城市空间结构特征且存在密切联系的两项重要议题。分析了北京都市区就业空间分异特征，识别了对职住空间错位影响显著的行业。结果表明：①从城市中心向外延伸，分布产业高度具有显著的梯度性和圈层结构特征；②就业行业空间分布可分为四种类型：中心城区集中就业的高端商业和生产性服务业，中心城区为主近郊区集聚就业的文化科技型服务业，近郊就业为主的传统服务业和生活服务业，远郊就业为主的保障性服务业和生产制造业；③批发和零售业，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，金融业，居民服务、修理和其他服务业及教育业等五大行业对北京都市区职住空间错位影响显著。     

感受诡谲与浪漫之美 凤舞九天楚文物特展掠影

由湖南省博物馆策划,湖南省博物馆、湖北省博物馆、河南博物院、安徽省博物馆等几大博物馆联袂举办的《凤舞九天——楚文物特展》,是最近几年来规模最大、规格最高的楚文物展览,也是湖南省博物馆继《走向盛唐》、《国家宝藏》等展览之后首度推出的原创性大展。     

The two opposing impacts of heritage making on local communities: residents’ perceptions: a Portuguese case

This article examines the impact associated with the making of heritage and tourism at a destination. Special attention is paid to the residents’ perceptions of the impact. The examination is focused on the rural village of Sortelha, in Portugal, where, in recent decades, a state-led programme was implemented in order to renovate the historic buildings and built fabric and to generate benefits for the local community. Based on ethnographic materials collected in 2003, 2009 and 2013, the study demonstrates that the making of heritage may give rise to two opposing impacts simultaneously – increased social cohesion and place pride, on the one hand, and envy and competition (and, hence, social atomisation), on the other hand – and that residents are entirely cognisant of the tension between the two. The study has the potential to contribute to both the theoretical and the applied literature on heritage making.     

COVID-19, mental health,and rurality: A pilot study

COVID-19 has caused enormous economic and social disruptions that may have lasting effects on employment, income, and working conditions. Critically, these disruptions often have a negative impact on mental health. While significant research has examined the relationship between COVID-19 and mental health, most of these studies focus on urban centres. This paper presents results from a pilot study conducted in two rural counties in Ontario, Canada on the experiences of residents from small and rural communities related to COVID-19. Based on 3496 survey results, this study quantifies the negative impact of COVID-19 on overall mental health and the confounding role of gender, income, and age. Results must be used to expand the dialogue around rural mental health and to ensure appropriate programs and policies are developed.     

产业生成视角的旅游内部就业层次分析——以张家界为例

界定旅游产业生成及其周期模型,划分内部就业层次,并分析演变过程。以就业弹性系数和旅游人次为观测指标,分析了生成周期对就业层次的影响。结果显示:①投资、旅游规模、旅游收入内部构成和就业人数有相关性。②出现期,以旅行社业和宾馆酒店业为主;成长期,以交通运输业、旅游商品服务和其他行业为主;发展期,以行业行政服务与管理为主。③就业弹性总体上呈相对平缓的演变态势;④从分层弹性看,因突发事件呈"二凸二凹"特点,其它时点较为平稳。     

Conditional Cash Transfers and Social Mobility: The Role of Asymmetric Structures and Segmentation Processes

This article seeks to advance existing research on conditional cash transfers (CCTs) by centring the analysis of their long‐term impact on the reproduction of poverty and exclusion. To date, most analyses and assessments of CCTs’ long‐term impact have been based on simulations focused on specific parameters such as income changes and educational attainment. This study takes as its starting point the assumption that any efforts to break the cycle of chronic poverty and exclusion must address their underlying structures and processes. To that end, it presents a social mobility analysis of Uruguay's Asignaciones Familiares and its impact on residential segregation, educational segmentation and labour market segmentation. Based on empirical data from qualitative interviews, household surveys and existing research studies, the programme is found to insufficiently address these asymmetric processes. Without accompanying structural reforms, this limitation will significantly constrain the programme's capacities to promote beneficiaries’ social mobility by breaking the intergenerational transmission of poverty.     

青藏高原"渐进阶梯式"旅游模式探讨

青藏铁路建成通车,众多游客纷纷涌向西藏,极大地推动了青藏高原的旅游业发展。而青藏高原的高海拔既是旅游业发展的独特之处,也是青藏高原旅游业发展的瓶颈。由于高海拔自然环境的极大差异和人类对不同海拔高度的不同生理反应以及不同自然环境对社会、经济发展的制约,从而导致在不同海拔高度的地貌区域游客的生理反应、接受的服务程度以及旅游环境容量都有极大的差异性,因此,本文通过分析认为海拔在2000—3000m为高原旅游游客的生理适应区,并得出西宁—兰州区和昆明区是高原旅游的最佳适应区;而3000—5000m为青藏高原的常规旅游区,>5000m则为青藏高原的特殊旅游区。从而提出青藏高原“渐进阶梯式”旅游模式的架构。     

A socioeconomic impact assessment of three Italian national parks

The expansion of protected areas (PAs) is feared to negatively affect the local economy, as every PA, albeit to different degrees, entails restriction to the economic activities. The literature on the topic has started assessing what is the socioeconomic impact of PAs, mostly focusing on the Global South. The objective of this article is the analysis of the socioeconomic impact of three Italian national parks (NPs), established in the 2000s, using a counterfactual approach based on both the outcome regression diff-in-diff and the doubly robust diff-in-diff combined with different propensity score-based and Mahalanobis distance matching procedures. We find that the three Italian NPs have a robust and statistically significant impact on average income of residents in municipalities hosting them. Conversely, there is weak evidence that population and local establishments are positively affected, and touristic local establishments and employment are negatively affected by the three NPs. All together the results indicate that the three NPs have no negative effect on the socioeconomic dynamics of the territories impacted, although additional investigations are required to shed lights to the impact mechanisms.     

西南喀斯特区贫困劳动力转移就业空间格局及影响因素——以云南省永善县为例

本文利用2016—2019年永善县贫困劳动力转移就业数据,运用地理探测器等方法,从数量和素质两个层面探讨贫困劳动力转移就业的时空格局,基于转入地视角识别转移数量空间分异的影响因素。研究表明：(1)2016—2019年间,永善县贫困劳动力转移就业数量空间分布格局具有较强的稳定性,空间上呈现由东部沿海尤其是三大城市群地区向中西部逐渐稀疏的趋势。(2)地区经济发展水平越高,就业岗位对劳动力素质要求相对越高,且区域对劳动力素质需求具有锁定效应;转入城市的贫困劳动力素质指数具有显著空间自相关性,城市间不均衡程度加剧。(3)经济收入、就业机会及生活消费成本仍是驱动贫困劳动力转移就业的核心力。     

SPATIAL DISCONTINUITY FOR THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE EU REGIONAL POLICY: THE CASE OF ITALIAN OBJECTIVE 1 REGIONS*

The economic impact of the Regional Policy of the European Union is still controversial. This paper exploits administrative boundaries as spatial discontinuity to estimate the causal effect of this policy on the Italian Objective 1 regions’ employment. The analysis, developed both in a border strategy framework (municipalities contiguous to the policy‐change boundary) and with more traditional RDD models balanced by spatial forcing variables (centroids’ distance and coordinates), shows that the EU Regional Policy produced a positive impact on employment levels, without any displacement of economic activities away from nontreated regions and a concentration of the impact in key economic sectors.     

Women's Employment in Urban Bangladesh: A Challenge to Gender Identity?

Drawing on survey and ethnographic data, this article presents empirical evidence regarding the impact of work participation on poor women's lives in urban Bangladesh. Working for pay is common among poor, married women in Dhaka and working women commonly make an important contribution to household income. There is evidence that working women are more likely to manage money, shop for household provisions and move about outside the home than non‐working women. Working women also appear better able to accumulate personal assets and take steps to secure their own well‐being. Despite such signs of challenge to ‘traditional’ gender identity, social and economic structures continue to be heavily weighted against women, limiting the impact of employment on other dimensions of their lives. In the acutely insecure urban setting, women (and men) are found to pursue multiple strategies aimed at both securing ‘centrality’ within their families, as well as protecting personal interests should familial entitlements prove unreliable.     

Macroeconomic Effects of 21st Century Trade and Investment Agreements: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership

Following United States withdrawal, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) is likely to be replaced or complemented by a series of bilateral deals between the US and TPP partners. In this case, TPP will shape trade, finance and public policy globally even without formal US participation. Proponents of TPP emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after 10 years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the USA to 13 per cent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries, excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. This article provides alternative projections of the TPP's economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which allows for changes in employment and income distribution. Using this model, the authors obtain very different results. They find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full‐employment models, and are negative for Japan and the USA. More importantly, they find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.