Developing a Synthetic Index of Land Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification

This paper develops an index of the vulnerability of land to drought and desertification (LVI) for Italy. The index takes into account changes in climate, land use, vegetation cover, soil properties, and population during the period 1990–2000. The LVI was built up through a multivariate approach aimed at assessing the importance of the various indicators included in the synthetic index. Increasing land vulnerability was observed during this time, especially in dry areas of the southern regions. This is interpreted as a consequence of land management practices, agricultural intensification, population pressure, and bio-physical degradation. The LVI can be used in an integrated, decision-support system to evaluate the impact of mitigation policies in rural environments.     

Assessing Socio‐Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts and Environmental Hazards in New South Wales and Queensland,Australia

This article systematically reviews and synthesises academic, peer‐reviewed literature to assess the state of knowledge concerning socio‐economic vulnerability to climate change impacts and environmental hazards in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. It focuses upon empirical research that identifies socio‐economic factors associated with vulnerable subpopulations. Using systematic review methods, 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles are analysed according to their general characteristics, the methods used, and the factors reported to be associated with socio‐economic vulnerability. This body of evidence reveals that (1) the majority of the knowledge about socio‐economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland has only recently emerged; (2) more knowledge has been published about Queensland; and (3) extreme temperature is the most researched environmental hazard. Despite increased research activity over time, the number of factors repeatedly demonstrated to influence socio‐economic vulnerability is small. Age, gender, place of residence, and pre‐existing illness were the most commonly reported factors, although the influence of these factors upon socio‐economic vulnerability is complex. There is scope to extend the empirical research base across a broader range of climate‐related hazards and to better link findings from the domains of climate change vulnerability and population health.     

Estimating Rapidity of Change in Complex Urban Systems: A Multidimensional,Local‐Scale Approach

This study illustrates an exploratory approach based on a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) to estimate rapidity of change in complex urban systems, based on “fast” and “slow” variables. The proposed methodology was applied to 18 socioeconomic indicators of long‐term (1960–2010) transformations in 115 municipalities of Athens’ metropolitan area (Greece), including demography, land‐use/planning, and urban form and functions. Athens was regarded as a dynamic urban area with diversified structures and functions at the local scale, expanding through a self‐organized pattern rather than a centralized planning strategy. Athens’ urban system was described using nine supplementary (topographic and territorial) variables and 30 independent indicators assessing the local context in recent times. Exploratory data analysis found an increasing connectedness and redundancy among socioeconomic indicators during the phase of largest urban expansion (1960–1990). Only the rate of population growth was classified as a “fast” variable for all five decades investigated. The overall rapidity of change was higher in 1960–1970, 1980–1990, and 2000–2010, decades that coincided with specific phases of urban expansion driven by migration inflow, second‐home suburbanization, and Olympic games, respectively. Rapidity of change was high for functional indicators during all five decades studied, while demography indicators changed more rapidly in the first three decades and land‐use/planning indicators in the last two decades. Rapidity of change was highest in peri‐urban municipalities with a highly diversified economic structure dominated by industry. Our methodology provides a comprehensive overview of the transformations of a complex urban system, quantifying low‐level indicators that are rarely assessed in the mainstream literature on urban studies. These results may contribute to design policies addressing complexity and promoting resilience in expanding metropolitan areas.     

Climate Aridity and Land Use Changes: A Regional‐Scale Analysis

In recent years, aridity and drought have become crucial issues at the global scale because of their environmental and socio‐economic implications. On the one hand, aridity causes a reduction in the biological and economic productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, and represents a serious threat to ecological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes. On the other hand, human use (and abuse) of vulnerable dry land ecosystems may lead to unsustainable land management. Based on these considerations, this paper analyses the recent land cover changes observed in Latium (Italy) during the exceptionally dry period 2000–2007. More than 50% of the area investigated was classified as dry in 2004–2007 compared with 0% in 2000–2003. Moreover, climatic aridity impacted differently on semi‐natural, agricultural, and built‐up land. These findings illustrate a possible scenario for suburban Mediterranean regions: increasing aridity (mainly due to rising temperatures) mainly impacting on peri‐urban land.     

Global Change and Southern Africa

The developing nations of southern Africa have previously been identified as vulnerable to the vagaries of global change, particularly in terms of future climate change. This paper explores recent climate change scenarios for the region in terms of some representative sectors of the environment‐society interface, namely biodiversity, agriculture and related land uses, water resources and health issues. It is concluded that the impacts of predicted climate changes over the next century are likely to be very marked indeed. Biome distribution, agriculture, rangelands and water resources are highlighted as being negatively impacted in ways that will increase the vulnerability of the great majority of the region's population to natural hazards. The potential impact of these changes on the prolific biodiversity of southern Africa is clear. Holistic policy responses, incorporating both environmental and human development concerns, are required in the near future if a crisis is to be averted.     

“A Chronicle of a Death Foretold”: Urban Expansion and Land Consumption in Rome,Italy

The article analyses the long-term changes in the spatial distribution and density of the urban settlements in Rome (Italy), a compact Mediterranean city recently undergoing low- and medium-density expansion. Eight density classes were considered: no buildings, <0.5 buildings per hectare, 0.5–1.0, 1–2, 2–3, 3–5, 5–10, >10 buildings per hectare. Non-urbanized land amounted to 89% of the investigated area in 1919 and fell to 30% in 2001. Building density increased over time suggesting that both concentration and diffusion processes occurred in the study area. During 1919–2001, the building density was stable in only 37% of the investigated land. In that period, the largest part of the area (47%) underwent a low increase in building density, while 12% of the area passed from a low-density to a high-density class. Settlement density decreased rapidly with the distance from the city centre in 1919 and 1945, while a marked increase was observed in areas progressively further away from Rome since 1961. In recent years, land consumption was partly determined by the planning strategies adopted by Rome's municipality with the aim of producing a more balanced and polycentric region. More effective policies preserving the quality of the environment and promoting the sustainable development of peri-urban Mediterranean regions are needed.     

Maritime Site Protection and the Fetch Method: an example from Rogaland,Norway

Predictions of future requirements for the protection of maritime archaeological sites are made using the fetch method which has been developed to evaluate the quality of landing‐places and navigable channels. The very useful method may explain why archaeological sites along the coast are rare in some areas, but numerous in others. Many of them are vulnerable to destruction by the effects of climate change, especially rising sea‐levels, based on the IPCC scenarios. The objective fetch method can be used worldwide to predict where new finds of sites close to sea‐level can be expected, and also to predict a site's vulnerability.     

湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变及调控研究——以滇池为例

脆弱性研究领域不断从自然生态系统向社会自然复合系统扩展,从社会生态系统视角动态化和人文化地研究脆弱性已成为趋势。湖泊流域是多层级的复合的社会生态系统,从流域角度、社会生态系统层面、体制机制维度,综合分析社会生态系统脆弱性的驱动机制,对系统治理和源头治理湖泊流域具有重大意义。文章以滇池为例,将"压力-状态-响应"模型和"暴露度-敏感性-恢复力"模型结合,构建脆弱性分析框架和评价模型,探寻湖泊流域社会生态系统脆弱性时空演变规律和脆弱性驱动机制,提出了湖泊流域脆弱性调控和区域可持续发展的思路。     

The Traditional Arab House in the Eastern Mediterranean and its Adaptation to the Mediterranean Climate

This study examines the climate‐related methods of adaptation on which the traditional Arab house in the Eastern Mediterranean was based. We analysed nine old houses (from the 18th century to the early 20th century), built in the Arab vernacular tradition style, in three areas of Israel with different climatic conditions. Three houses in each area were chosen at random. Only nine were chosen because of the difficulty in finding houses whose state of preservation was in keeping with the aims of the research. For each house, climate‐related elements of the construction were documented. We found elements included at the design stage indicating climate consciousness, climate‐related elements due to building constraints, and building constraints in a cultural context with implications for the balance of climatic efficiency. The findings showed that climatic considerations were an integral part of the design while the principles crossed the boundaries of the three areas. Temperature, relative humidity, and heat intensity were measured, both inside and outside the house on selected days in each season. The research showed that the house moderates the impact of the outside temperature, inside the house in winter and mainly during the hot hours of the day in summer. Most of the climate‐related elements are still relevant. They can be used in regions with Mediterranean‐type climates (in the Mediterranean Basin, South Africa, central Chile, and southwestern Australia), especially when global warming and air pollution demand a substantial revolution of building design philosophies, strategies, technologies, and management methods.     

河南省农区发展差异及空间演化分析

运用层次分析法建立农区发展水平综合评价指标体系,并借助GIS、GeoDA软件,结合ESDAGIS空间分析方法,深入分析1990-2013年河南省县级尺度农区发展差异及空间演化。研究发现：①近20多年来河南省农区发展水平逐渐提高;高水平区分布在矿产资源丰富的空间界面处,较高水平区位于高水平区外围和地级市周边地区,中等水平区位于平原区,低及较低水平区位于山地丘陵区;②1990-2013年河南省农区发展水平相似的县级单元在空间上呈集聚分布且集聚效应逐渐减弱,以HH和LL类型区为主且稳定性较强,而HL和LH类型区较少且稳定性较差;③农区发展的突破点在于空间界面处和创造良好的区位。同时,这也是从空间思维的角度来对以往空间结构理论多以城市研究为中心的有益补充。     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

Modelling Soil Erosion by Grazing: Recent Developments and New Approaches

Grazing is still widely held responsible for land degradation. The interaction between grazing and erosion is still rather poorly understood. As a consequence, counter‐measures and associated management techniques have been slow to develop in southern Europe compared with Australia. Developments in ecological and economic‐ecological modelling have improved our understanding of the processes and enhanced management capacity. Some of these developments are reviewed and two applications are described. One is a model for semi‐extensive grazing in dry Mediterranean mountain conditions in which the shepherds, on random paths, seek to optimise resources use for economic benefit. The other is a spatial optimisation of vegetation canopy to minimise erosion rates.     

长株潭地区聚落空间演化及其与耕地的空间关系研究

对2000年、2005年及2010年的遥感影像图进行解译,得到3个时期的土地利用分类图,运用景观指数法和空间分析法等方法,对长株潭地区聚落的空间演化特征及动因进行分析,并分析了聚落与耕地之间的空间关系。结果表明:长株潭地区聚落的面积、数量规模和分布密度加速扩大,集中分布在高程200 m以下;聚落空间演化的自然动因是低地平原指向,而社会动因是人口规模的变化;提出耕地与聚落面积比指数(K)概念,根据K值的大小可以将耕地与聚落的空间组合关系分为3类地区:耕地资源紧缺区、耕地资源平衡区、耕地资源盈余区;聚落与耕地的空间转移关系可以分为两大类:持续稳定型和动态变化型;长沙市周边耕地转为聚落的趋势十分明显;聚落空间扩张对耕地的影响存在一个空间临界点,城市化速度越快,临界点的位置距离聚落越远。     

Development of a Methodology for the Assessment of Vulnerability Related to Wildland Fires Using a Multi‐Criteria Evaluation

In the geography of risk, vulnerability may be defined as a physical characteristic that describes the tendency of a territory to suffer damage as a result of the occurrence of certain phenomena. According to this synthetic definition, there are two main components of vulnerability in the context of wildland fires. The first is internal, and is related to the effects of fires on the value of the affected assets affected and their capacity for recovery. The second is external, and is related to the characteristics of fires and the ability of society to deal with the hazards of wildland fires. The aim of the present study is to develop an assessment of spatial vulnerability in the context of wildland fires, at a scale appropriate for planning (1/25 000), in a mountainous region of the Spanish Mediterranean coast (Sierra Calderona). The proposed methodology entailed the definition of a synthetic index associated with the management of the risk of wildland fires, which was made up of significant factors such as the difficulty of extinction, the need for forest defence, the need for civil protection, and territorial value. To define and calculate the factors, variables and indicators that reflected aspects of the components of vulnerability (such as exposure, sensitivity, and the capacity to fight fires) were used. These were combined in a hierarchical structure, each having its own cartographical representation. Geographical information systems and multi‐criteria evaluation were then used to provide a successful framework for the analysis of vulnerability in relation to wildland fires. The cartographical outputs of the various components of the index are of particular interest to the planning of certain activities (e.g. forest, wildland fire, and civil protection), all of which are directly involved in the management of risk. In turn, the final synthetic index provides comprehensive spatial information that is useful for spatial planning and also enables the assessment of potential future land use in view of its usefulness in simulations.     

Screening Climatic and Non‐Climatic Risks to Australian Catchments

Emerging and future climatic change across the Australian continent has been identified as a significant threat to the successful sustainable management of the nation's water resources. However, the impacts of climate change must be viewed within the context of past, present and future climatic variability and human agency. A qualitative screening‐level risk assessment was undertaken for Australia's 325 surface water management areas by aggregating a suite of six relevant risk indicators. Four indicators addressed the antecedent conditions upon which future climate change will act. These included 50‐year trends in rainfall, the status of surface and groundwater development, and catchment condition. Two indicators addressed future drivers of supply and demand; specifically, projected changes in runoff and population. The results indicate that the management challenges currently experienced in Australia's population centres and key agricultural areas such as the Murray‐Darling Basin are likely to increase in future decades. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of net risk, inclusive of multiple biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, is more extensive than is suggested by consideration of surface water development and availability alone. Comparison of at‐risk catchments with the spatial distribution of various social and environmental assets identified a high degree of overlap among catchment risk and human populations, water storages, irrigated agricultural land, and wetlands of international significance. This suggests that the catchments of the greatest value are also those judged to be at greatest risk. Though considerable work remains in evaluating the security of Australia's water resources to climatic and other stressors, this study provides a first‐order scheme for prioritising the risks to which catchments are exposed and an assessment of how some key drivers are likely to interact to drive risk.     

Spatial and temporal variation in vulnerability of crop production to drought in southern Alberta

Growing evidence of global climate change has led to global concerns over the vulnerability of agriculture to drought. Located in a semiarid environment, southern Alberta has suffered significant losses of agricultural productivity due to drought hazards in recent decades. Understanding the relationship between crop production and drought conditions is essential for coping with increasingly uncertain climate conditions. This study attempts to quantify the magnitude of crop production vulnerability to drought in southern Alberta. The standard precipitation index is used to measure drought stress in the region. The empirical results provide a detailed picture of the spatial variation in crop production vulnerability to varying drought conditions. Vulnerability maps from this study reveal that pockets in the study area may experience significant productivity loss given the existing level of adaptive capacity. While the irrigation districts have been associated with a lower level of vulnerability than dryland outside the irrigated region, uncertain water supply under varying climatic conditions coupled with increasing water allocation for non‐agricultural uses may increase the vulnerability in these districts.     

Compelled to Compete: Rendering Climate Change Vulnerability Investable

The imperative for vulnerable populations to adapt to greater environmental variability is increasing in lockstep with the onset of wide-ranging climate change impacts. However, while critical adaptation research emphasizes the necessity of addressing the underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change, mainstream approaches to adaptation stress economic growth as a prerequisite for climate responses. Accordingly, capital-intensive adaptation measures promote competitiveness to spur economic growth in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, where more than 18 million people face environmental hazards such as seawater intrusion, flood, drought and cyclones. This study evaluates competitiveness as a mandate for effective climate change adaptation. It finds that adaptation can advance either competition or vulnerability reduction, but it cannot logically or pragmatically pursue both.     

大连市建成区土地利用时空演变与动力机制分析

借助ENVI和GIS技术对大连市1990年以来遥感影像资料及空间数据进行统计分析,研究其建成区扩张的时空演变及动力机制。研究结果表明,近20年来,大连市区建设用地扩张1.34倍,以东北为主要拓展方向。1990-1995年扩张速度和扩张贡献率最大,城市空间不规则扩张;1995-2005年城市以填充式发展为主,边界逐渐规则;2005年以来进入了新一轮的建设用地扩张时期。人口增长和经济发展对建设用地扩张的驱动作用趋于弱化,政府决策行为成为主要影响因素,尤其是金州区与新城区(开发区)的建立与发展对大连市区建设用地扩张有明显的牵引和带动作用。     

Ways In and Out of Vulnerability to Climate Change: Abandoning the Mubarak Project in the Northern Nile Delta,Egypt

Abstract: Climate change is already exerting significant pressure on humanity, but some people have the resources to cope, while others do not. What, then, determines vulnerability to climate change? This article presents a case study of one site of vulnerability in Egypt, known as the Mubarak Project villages on the shores of the Mediterranean. The soil of these villages is now undergoing rapid salinization, forcing farmers to apply sand to “elevate” their fields above the rising salty water table—but not all farmers can afford to buy the requisite sand. Accumulation by dispossession under the Mubarak regime has pushed some people towards the frontline of climate change, while at the same time denying them the resources to stay there. Using our case, we explore the connection between accumulation by dispossession and vulnerability to climate change and ask if an end to the former could reduce the latter in Egypt.     

The Potential Relationship Between Archaeological Artifact Exposure and Surface Geomorphic Processes: Northeastern Peloponnese,Greece

Complex interactions between topography, near-surface geology, active tectonics, climate, and human activity shape a landscape, conditioning archaeological deposits and making sediment deposits from surface erosion important archives. There is a potential relationship between the intensity of geomorphic processes and surface artifact distribution. This study assesses the potential relationship between soil erosion by water and the spatial distribution of archaeological surface artifacts in the Inachos River watershed, Greece. The mountainous, semi-arid Mediterranean region is particularly vulnerable to soil loss. Soil erosion is quantified by applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation in a GIS framework. Estimates of soil loss vary spatially compared to surface artifact finds of the pedestrian survey of the Western Argolid Regional Project. A statistically significant relationship is identified between surface erosion rates and artifact density. Preferential topography for occupation suggests this is an associative rather than causative relationship. Knowledgeable interpretation of artifact distribution enables accurate reconstruction of human settlement history.