加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

东北地区经济空间极化及其驱动因子的定量研究

在对区域经济空间极化相关文献研究综述的基础上,借鉴有关研究方法,遵循从过程到格局、机理,从整体到局部的研究思路,首先以人均GDP为测度指标,综合分析东北三省及其内部各区域经济差异与空间极化的过程与空间格局,接着以人均GDP的极化水平为应变量,以工业总产值、当年实际直接利用外资额、社会商品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资、全员劳动生产率和复合流量的极化水平为自变量,建立多元线性回归模型,分析区域经济空间极化的内在机理。结果表明:①区域经济发展存在空间极化现象,且整体呈现出南强北弱的态势;②哈长经济区和辽中南经济区已初步形成,其中哈长经济区处于明显的集聚阶段,而辽中南经济区扩散效应已开始发挥作用;③地区经济发展的位序排名及其变化表明区域经济发展中心逐步南移;④区域差异和空间极化总体变化趋势基本一致,呈现出先升后降,但总体水平呈上升的变化态势;⑤多元线性回归模型表明各动力因子的作用程度和作用趋势不尽相同,但工业总产值和全员劳动生产率是东北三省及其内部区域经济空间极化演变所共有的主导驱动因子,说明其区域经济发展是一个内生增长过程,并提出应强化市场体制转轨、国有企业改组改革、产业结构升级换代和政府政策的导向作用。     

长江经济带少数民族特色村寨的地域空间格局与影响因素

少数民族特色村寨即是彰显中国优秀传统文化的重要载体,也是推进乡村振兴战略实施的关键阵地。基于长江经济带国家级少数民族特色村寨数据,运用GIS技术及空间统计方法对三批次长江经济带少数民族特色村寨地域空间分布格局进行分析,并结合地理探测器模型探索其影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明：长江经济带少数民族特色村寨的空间格局呈现集聚分布形态,整体体现出以黔东南、滇西、湘西为核心的三足鼎立格局和“大集中、小分散”的分布特点;三批次少数民族特色村寨空间分布重心向西方向迁移,分布总体走向呈现逆时针旋转变动;少数民族特色村寨空间分布格局呈现由“多个高密度核心区”向“一核多点”结构形态再到多核驱动的“多地开花式”演化;少数民族特色村寨空间分布具有较强的空间正相关性,冷热极化现象显著;自然地理因素、经济发展水平、资源禀赋条件、人口分布状况、文化服务环境等因素对少数民族特色村寨地域空间格局影响显著,且影响程度存在空间差异。最后,提出长江经济带少数民族特色村寨空间格局优化及振兴发展的建议。     

基于GIS的中国省际人口迁移流的空间特征分析

文章基于中国第五、六次人口普查与2005年1%人口普查数据资料,采用流数据分析方法,运用GIS空间分析技术,选用省际人口迁移的最大联系线、最大迁出流、最大迁入流、期望线、迁移效率、粗迁移率等方法系统地研究了我国1995-2010年间省际迁移的时空动态特点及其区际联系。结果表明:全国省际人口迁移的流动性不断增强,东部地区更明显;省际最大人口迁出与迁入流反映了中国省际区域间空间相互作用整体框架,全国大致可以分为3个人口吸引片区和5个辐射片区;省际最大净迁移流主要分布在东南沿海地区,中、西部地区分布较少,其空间分布与各省的MEI_(i)指数密切相关。     

东北三省城市经济弹性空间分异及其影响因素研究

为促进东北三省城市经济的复苏与可持续发展，构建城市经济弹性评价指标体系，运用熵值法和多指标综合评价法，对东北三省城市经济弹性水平及其吸收能力、恢复能力和转换能力等构成要素进行评价，运用灰色关联分析法对城市经济弹性影响因素进行研究。结果表明：①从城市经济弹性水平来看，除了大连、长春和哈尔滨处于中等水平外，其余城市均处在较低水平和低度水平；②从城市经济弹性的空间分异来看，呈现显著的“集聚化”分异特征；③从城市经济吸收、恢复和转换能力来看，各城市水平与经济弹性水平基本一致，且空间分异特征也基本一致；④影响城市经济弹性的主要因素分别是经济结构、经济规模、环境状况、人力资源和经济密度。     

湖南省经济空间结构演变及工业化主导因素分析

经济空间结构是经济地理学和区域经济学研究的重要论题之一,为了揭示湖南省经济空间结构演变过程及演变机制,分析了湖南省经济空间结构演变过程;并从工业化、区域政策和城镇化等方面分析了其经济空间结构演变机制。结果表明:20世纪80年代中期以来,湖南省经济正处于空间集聚过程,经济空间结构呈现出明显的核心-边缘模式;湖南省经济空间结构与工业化、区域政策和城镇化存在内在联系和耦合关系,其中工业发展是湖南经济增长的主要动力,也是经济空间结构形成与演化的重要原因。     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AMENITIES AND FISCAL FACTORS ON AGE-SPECIFIC MIGRATION RATES

ABSTRACT. Migration models have considered several different categories of determinants, including economic opportunities, amenities, and state and local fiscal factors. Migration has also been shown to depend on the individual's position in the life cycle. This paper represents a first attempt to integrate all three categories of determinants of migration into a life-cycle framework. Empirical findings generated from a countrywide model of white male migration, over the period 1970 to 1980, reveal that all three types of determinants are important. Specifically, economic opportunities are most influential for males during their working years. Amenities are also found to follow a life-cycle pattern with older migrants more attracted to amenable locations than their younger cohorts. Finally, state income and death taxes display life-cycle effects; working males in their peak earning years are detracted by high income taxes while all migrants aged 55 to 69 avoid counties in states with high inheritance and estate taxes.     

GHANA'S COCOA FRONTIER IN TRANSITION: THE ROLE OF MIGRATION AND LIVELIHOOD DIVERSIFICATION

Since the first commercial planting of cocoa in Ghana more than a century ago, the production of cocoa has been a key factor in the redistribution of migrants and has played a pivotal role in the development of both sending and receiving communities. This process has been acknowledged in the literature for decades. However, how migration flows have changed in response to changing livelihoods dynamics of the frontier and how this has impacted on the development of the frontier has only attracted limited attention. Based on a study of immigration to Ghana's current cocoa frontier in the Western Region, this article aims to examine how immigration and frontier dynamics in the Western region are contributing to livelihood transitions and small town development, and how this process is gradually becoming delinked from the production of cocoa. The article focuses on how migration dynamics interlink with livelihood opportunities and strategies. It is argued that migrants to the current frontier can be divided into at least four different types based on their migration, settlement and livelihood practices. Accordingly, to understand how the cocoa frontier changes as well as its continuation beyond the frontier crop, there is a need for a broader understanding of the frontier concept, and how frontier transformation interacts with migration and livelihood dynamics.     

GRAVITY AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE: THE CASE OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION IN MEXICO*

ABSTRACT The estimation of gravity models of internal (aggregate) place‐to‐place migration is plagued with endogeneity (omitted‐variable) biases if the unobserved effects of spatial structure are not accounted for. To address this econometric problem, this paper presents a more general specification of the gravity model, which allows for (bilateral) parameter heterogeneity across individual migration paths—along with (unilateral) origin‐ and destination‐specific effects. The resultant “three‐way fixed‐effects” (3FE) model is applied for an analysis of interstate migration in Mexico based on cross‐sectional data. To overcome parameter‐dimensionality problems (due to limited or incomplete information), the 3FE model is estimated using the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator. The empirical implications of this new modeling strategy are illustrated by contrasting the 3FE‐GME estimates with those for the traditional and two‐way fixed‐effects (2FE) models. The former are far more plausible and intuitively interpretable than their traditional and 2FE counterparts, with parameter estimates changing in expected directions. The (average) effect of the migrant stock is markedly smaller than usually estimated, providing a more realistic measure of network‐induced migration. Migration outflows from centrally located origins have significantly steeper distance decay. Path‐specific distance effects exhibit directional asymmetries and spatial similarities.     

COMPARISONS IN THE SPATIAL KNOWLEDGE SURFACES OF SUBJECTS FROM CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper advances the spatial-choice modelling literature by further examining the way in which spatial knowledge is gained. The specific research purpose of this paper is to see how a major boundary (the U.S.A.-Canada border) will affect the generation of a spatial-knowledge surface. It is accepted that an important impact on the way an individual makes a spatial choice, such as a decision to migrate, is the amount and quality of the information he / she possesses about different locations. A positive influence on such a knowledge surface is the population size of the location. Negative influences include the separating distance between individual and location, and the degree of clustering the location faces in respect to other places around it. This paper investigates the way in which these influences also hold if a major boundary lies between a subject and the investigated research space. The paper uses a multi-variate model calibrated on lists of recalled United States city names generated at 9 different Canadian test sites. These are then compared to similar model results from 22 U.S. test sites. The Canadian test results are more consistent than those for the United States. Also, for Canadian subjects, there is no distance decay in the probability of recalling a location unless the Canadian test site is located proximate to a major American border city. A strong relationship exists between the population size of the recalled location and its probability of being recalled. There is also further evidence to support a hierarchical method of knowledge processing, albeit in a weaker form than found in the U.S. test sites. Cet article contribue à la documentation sur la modélisation des choix spatiaux en analysant comment on acquiert des connaissances sur l'espace. Le but spécifique de la recherche est d'observer comment une frontière géographique (la frontière entre les États-Unis et le Canada) influencerait la génération d'une surface de connaissances spatiales. Lorsqu'un individu choisit un lieu d'une perspective spatiale (et lorsqu'on prend une décision de migrer) la quantité et la qualité des ren-seignements qu'on possède au sujet des différentes situations influencent profondément sa décision. La population d'un lieu a une influence positive sur une telle surface de connaissances. Parmi les influences négatives il y a la distance qui sépare l'individu du lieu dont il s'agit, la proximité de ce lieu aux autres et le degré d'agglomération d'un lieu par rapport aux autres dans les environs. Dans cet article nous essayons de déterminer comment ces influences fonctionnent si une frontière importante reste entre l'individu et l'espace qu'on étudie. Cette investigation utilise un modèle multivarié, calibré sur des listes de noms de villes aux Etats-Unis qu'on rappelle et qui furent générés à 9 sites canadiens différents. Nous faisons la comparaison entre ceux-ci et des résultats semblables des modèles de 22 sites aux Etats-Unis. Les résultats des tests au Canada sont plus uniformes que ceux des Etats-Unis. De plus, pour les canadiens la distance n'a aucune influence sur la probabilité de rappeler un lieu à moins que le lieu canadien ne se trouve pas très près d'une ville importante américaine située sur la frontière. Une relation forte existe entre la population d'un lieu rappelé et sa probabilité d'être rappelée. D'autres faits suggèrent également la validité d'une méthode hiérarchique de traitement des connaissances, même si ces indications sout moins fortes que ce que l'on observe aux sites américains.     

THE ROLE OF FAMILY SUPPORT AND OTHER FACTORS IN RETURNING HOME

The present study focuses on the effect of social and other support from the family in the place of origin of migrants and how it impacts upon migrants’ propensity to return. The study uses longitudinal data from a project in Northeastern Thailand called the Nang Rong Project. The analysis shows that monetary support from the family left behind has a significant effect on migrants’ propensity to return home. Household strategies of migration have played an important role in explaining migration in the Nang Rong setting. At the individual and household level, education, occupation and household size were strongly associated with migrants’ propensity to return to their original village. Among the social support variables, duration of migration has significant effects on migrants’ likelihood of returning home. Three variables—marital status, wealth index and whether the person came with an immediate family member—were found to have weak associations with the dependent variable. A major finding from this study was that migrants who have higher education are more likely to stay at the destination.     

全球化时代的空间积累与分化及对规划角色的再审视

本文的主要目是探讨全球化进程对城市和区域发展的影响和分析全球化时代规划角色的转变。文章首先介绍了全球化的研究阶段和争论,指出全球化是一个非均衡、非对称的过程。随后分析了这种非均衡、非对称过程对空间发展的影响,即城市和区域空间积累与分化及城市密集地区作用的凸现,然后文章对中国空间发展的特殊影响因素和现象进行了探讨。文章认为以经济增长和空间营造为主要目的传统技术规划已经无法适应全球化时代的要求,规划被赋予了公共政策指引和提升竞争力的双重新功能,具备了对内解决问题、对外参与全球竞争的双向职能。     

REPRODUCING AND RESHAPING ETHNIC RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION IN STOCKHOLM: THE ROLE OF SELECTIVE MIGRATION MOVES

This paper deals with the issues of selective migration moves, and the production and reproduction of immigrantdense neighbourhoods in Stockholm, Sweden. It has been shown earlier that selective migration, that is, socioeconomic and ethnic differences between those leaving, entering and staying in so‐called deprived neighbourhoods, reproduces these neighbourhoods' characteristics of being poor and immigrant dense. Key concepts launched to inform such studies and derived from the US segregation discourse are “white fight” and “white avoidance”, meaning that native people (or white people in the US case) tend to leave neighbourhoods experiencing growing numbers of immigrants (black people) and which they also tend to avoid moving into such neighbourhoods. Using a complete set of geo‐coded longitudinal individual data for the 2005–2008 Stockholm County population, this paper contributes to our understanding of ethnic differences in the intra‐urban migration system. Three empirical questions are addressed: what individual characteristics distinguish (1) those who move into neighbourhoods experiencing rapidly increasing immigrant densities from those moving elsewhere in the urban region; (2) those who leave neighbourhoods experiencing rapidly increasing immigrant densities from those who stay put; (3) those who move in the direction of higher immigrant densities from those moving into lower densities? Results from multivariate statistical analyses provide support for the avoidance hypothesis but less support for the fight hypothesis. When controlling for a range of individual and neighbourhood attributes there is clear evidence that native‐born Swedes are less inclined than most immigrant categories to move into immigrant dense areas while ethnic origin does not seem to matter much when explaining who leaves such areas.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。