THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATES: A TWO-DIGIT-LEVEL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1954–1987 state manufacturing employment growth in 19 two-digit industries. Markets were found to be the strongest influence in 18 industries. Labor was the second strongest, followed by a threshold variable. Weaker influences were resources, taxes, and amenities. Regional values for the market, labor, and threshold variables corresponded well with regional employment change in the Manufacturing Belt and all other regions of the U.S.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL WAGE REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT: A BORDER ANALYSIS FROM ITALY IN THE 1950s*

This paper measures the impact of wage zones—compulsory wage differentials at the province level—on Italy's local labor markets during the 1950s. Using spatial regression techniques, it finds that for the industrial sectors covered under wage zones there was an increase in employment when one crossed the border from a high‐wage province into a low‐wage one; the effect diminished, however, as the distance from the boundary increased. The paper also illustrates that the impact on the overall (nonfarm) private sector, which includes both covered and uncovered sectors, was negligible.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INTERREGIONAL PRICE LINKAGES*

ABSTRACT Vector autoregression models are used to analyze the relationships between Texas and Illinois corn prices, and the New Orleans export price. Decomposition of error variances suggests an increasing exogeneity in the recent years between the export market and the two U.S. markets. Impulse response functions indicate that the export price influences both the Illinois and Texas prices.     

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS: A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING INTERREGIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION FLOWS*

ABSTRACT. During the last thirty years there has been much research effort in regional science devoted to modeling interactions over geographic space. Theoretical approaches for studying these phenomena have been modified considerably. This paper suggests a new modeling approach, based upon a general nested sigmoid neural network model. Its feasibility is illustrated in the context of modeling interregional telecommunication traffic in Austria, and its performance is evaluated in comparison with the classical regression approach of the gravity type. The application of this neural network approach may be viewed as a three-stage process. The first stage refers to the identification of an appropriate network from the family of two-layered feedforward networks with 3 input nodes, one layer of (sigmoidal) intermediate nodes and one (sigmoidal) output node (logistic activation function). There is no general procedure to address this problem. We solved this issue experimentally. The input-output dimensions have been chosen in order to make the comparison with the gravity model as close as possible. The second stage involves the estimation of the network parameters of the selected neural network model. This is performed via the adaptive setting of the network parameters (training, estimation) by means of the application of a least mean squared error goal and the error back propagating technique, a recursive learning procedure using a gradient search to minimize the error goal. Particular emphasis is laid on the sensitivity of the network performance to the choice of the initial network parameters, as well as on the problem of overfitting. The final stage of applying the neural network approach refers to the testing of the interregional teletraffic flows predicted. Prediction quality is analyzed by means of two performance measures, average relative variance and the coefficient of determination, as well as by the use of residual analysis. The analysis shows that the neural network model approach outperforms the classical regression approach to modeling telecommunication traffic in Austria.     

区域经济增长的文化产业驱动效应研究——基于省级面板数据的分析

本文采用中国31个省份1996-2013年的面板数据,对中国文化产业与经济发展的内在驱动效应展开研究。研究发现:第一,文化产业投入和产出规模扩张对地区GDP和人均GDP增长具有显著作用,两者间的交互效应会加大其对经济发展的推动力;第二,文化产业有助于带动旅游业和整个第三产业发展,促进地区经济增长;第三,中国文化产业对经济发展的带动效应存在显著的地区差异,西部地区文化产业对经济发展的提升作用最大,中部和东部地区效应相对不足。因此,进一步加大对文化产业发展的政策支持,实现文化产业的合理布局,不仅能够促进整体经济增长,而且可以实现区域平衡发展。     

SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TEMPORARY LABOUR MIGRATION IN INDIA

Temporary labour migration has rarely been studied at macro level despite its high prevalence in India. Drawing from the recently available Indian National Sample Survey (2007–08), this paper aims to study the basic differentials between temporary and permanent labour migration at the national level and examines the socioeconomic determinants of temporary labour migration at the state level. The study shows that temporary migration is seven times larger than permanent migration, and is largely a rural phenomenon dominated by rural to urban migration. A regional pattern in temporary labour migration is evident in the low-income Central and North Indian states. Low economic, educational and social status significantly induces temporary labour migration in contrast to permanent labour migration. As such, temporary labour migration appears to be a survival strategy of the rural poor in India.     

城市宜居性与旅游发展关系研究——基于面板数据的分析

本文关注城市宜居性与旅游发展互动关系,在理论模型基础上,运用因子分析、熵值法、面板回归等对我国35个大中城市数据进行实证分析。研究发现:城市宜居性可以分为丰富的物质文化生活、便利的公共服务、健康舒适的生活环境、良好的社会福利和安全的生产生活等五个维度;城市宜居性对旅游发展具有持续地促进作用,该作用受到对外交通、潜在市场规模和对外经济发展水平的正向调节;适度的旅游发展提升城市宜居水平,过度的旅游发展对城市宜居性具有不利影响;根据旅游发展相对水平,可将对应城市分为优先推动组、推动组、适度控制组和控制组;北京、天津、杭州、广州、深圳、重庆、武汉等地的旅游业发展对城市宜居性的威胁较大。     

INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: THE LEAST UPPER BOUND*

ABSTRACT. The least upper bound to the overall percentage error resulting from the omission of interregional feedbacks in input-output analysis is defined. This limiting value is the most informative of all upper bounds. A procedure for its computation is outlined and a number of experiments, using U.S. data, are discussed.