基于时变参数模型的中国房地产投资研究

房地产投资能够直接带动国民经济增长,但发展过快也会给经济带来负效应,协调好房地产投资与国民经济发展的关系尤为重要。本文首先综述国内外相关研究成果,发现现有定量研究无法真实反映房地产业本身结构的变化;其次,建立时变参数模型,对房地产投资与国民经济发展之间的关系进行了实证研究;最后得出研究结论和政策建议。本文的研究结论:一是房地产投资对GDP拉动作用显著;二是房地产投资受GDP、国内银行贷款以及利率的影响各不相同。与现有研究文献相比较,本文在研究视角和方法上均有-定的突破。     

THE BODY AT WAR

This book is one of the truly original contributions in historical writing to appear during the centenary of the outbreak of the war in 1914. The authors' central argument is that at the time of the Great War, scientists and physicians reconfigured the human body as both a living organism and a site of meaning. They developed the notion that the body was an integrated set of self-regulating systems, the precariousness of which threatened all of us with death every single day. The authors term this the “integration–crisis duet.” Although the origins of this formulation long antedated the war, the problem of treating thousands of men who suffered from various forms of shock—wound shock, surgical shock, shell shock—brought this new configuration of the human body into high relief during and in the decades after the war. The metaphor of homeostasis, or self-regulation, Geroulanos and Meyers claim, was so powerful that it spread well beyond the domain of physiology and medicine to facets of psychoanalysis, political thought, cybernetics, philosophy, and anthropology.     

CANADA DIVIDED: THE OPTIMAL DIVISION OF AN ECONOMY INTO REGIONS

ABSTRACT We develop an objective methodology for forming large regions (called macroregions) from small regions (microregions). We observe that the aggregation of microregions in an interregional input-output model causes aggregation error in the model. Our optimal regions are those that cause aggregation error to be minimized. We apply our methodology to Canada, and we compare our optimal regions for Canada to those of Statistics Canada and to those obtained using the well-known heuristic of Kossov. Statistics Canada's regions as well as those produced using Kossov's technique are characterized by substantially greater aggregation error than are those produced with our methodology.     

AN INVESTIGATION INTO DIET AT THE SITE OF YARNTON, OXFORDSHIRE, USING STABLE CARBON AND NITROGEN ISOTOPES

This paper reports the results of stable isotopic analyses conducted upon animal and human bones recovered from Yarnton, Oxfordshire. Spanning the Neolithic to Saxon periods, it is in many ways a typical site, but is unusual in that a small Middle Iron Age cemetery was discovered.
All of the data presented here lie within the expected isotopic ranges for the European Holocene, although both faunal and animal δ¹⁵N values are higher than is commonly found. The faunal data show the expected pattern for the animals studied (horse, cattle, sheep/goat, pig and dog), with pigs being more omnivorous than ruminants, and dogs eating an isotopically similar diet to humans. The animals' diets had higher δ¹⁵N values during the Roman period as compared to the Iron Age, although it is unclear if this reflects an environmental change or alteration in animal management practices. Despite the site's riverine location, there is no isotopic evidence for fish consumption. No distinctions were found based on gender or burial position within the Iron Age cemetery. Age-based distinctions were found in δ¹³C values, although these cannot be fully explained. As expected, infants have a higher nitrogen isotopic value than other individuals, reflecting the consumption of their mother's milk.     

试析冷战后美俄地缘政治空间竞争

冷战结束以来,美俄间以主权国家利益为核心的地缘政治竞争一直在进行着。美俄间的地缘政治空间之争主要表现在美国主导下的北约东扩和在独联体地区的渗透。而俄罗斯为了防止其在欧亚大陆战略生存空间被挤压和近邻地区被分化,采取了一系列的反对、抵制措施,以防地缘政治空间被进一步削弱并力图为俄罗斯未来重新崛起保留一定的地缘政治空间。作为战略博弈优势方的美国的地缘政治政策主导着美俄关系演进的进程和张力。     

NORTH AND SOUTH AT THE END OF THE MYCENAEAN AGE: ASPECTS OF AN OLD PROBLEM

Summary. The end of the Mycenaean age calls for an explanation outside the immediate Aegean area. The evidence is more likely to come from changes in habit than in the importation of objects of bronze or pottery. In order to understand events it is necessary to look beyond Greek frontiers to the Danube and Balkans. Among important changes are those in fighting tactics with a return to the sword in the Aegean and new workshop practice in Europe with more bronze forging against casting. Evidence for actual arrival of people is never likely to be conclusive; various alternatives are considered.     

AN EPR AND ISOTOPIC STUDY OF THE MARBLES OF THE TRAJAN's ARCH AT ANCONA: AN EXAMPLE OF ALLEGED HYMETTIAN PROVENANCE*

The provenance of 20 marble samples drawn from the Trajan's arch at Ancona, which is supposed to be made of Greek, Hymettian marble, has been established on the basis of the independent use of EPR and isotopic data. The results of the two methods are in good agreement and unequivocally indicate a Proconnesian provenance. Sixteen samples are assigned to this site, whereas two are classified as untypical Proconnesian samples and the remaining two are assigned an unlikely Parian provenance. No indication exists for a possible Hymettian origin of the marbles. A multi‐method approach, which employs all of the experimental variables simultaneously, demonstrates that the 18 samples identified as Proconnesian belong to several different quarrying areas within the site. This result is taken as an indication that the Proconnesian quarries were run following a highly organized, semi‐industrial production model. The origin of the Hymettian/Proconnesian misunderstanding and the possible misclassification of other Roman monuments in Italy are briefly commented on.     

PHOSPHORUS ANALYSIS AT ARCHAEOLOGICAL SITES: AN OPTIMIZATION OF THE METHOD AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS

The application of phosphorus analysis to archaeological contexts can be considerably improved through ultrasonic extraction and the statistical evaluation of results through an analysis of variance. Such tools make the archaeological application of phosphorus analysis faster as well as more economical and coherent. This paper describes the features of these tools and provides a practical case: the Late Neolithic—Early Copper phase of the site ‘Polideportivo’in Martos, southern Spain.