NAFTA and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis

The “Pollution Haven Hypothesis” is the prediction that trade liberalization will lead to the movement of polluting industries from high income/stringent environmental regulation countries to low income/lax environmental regulation countries. This prediction has led to concerns that NAFTA would be an environmental disaster for Mexico. The three articles included in this collection investigate the post‐NAFTA environmental performance of Mexico using both aggregate data on pollution emissions as well as firm‐level data on environmental abatement efforts. In this article, I summarize the contribution in the context of the trade/environmental literature and provide some suggestions for future work.     

北美自由贸易协定与美墨关系

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)的签定是冷战结束后美墨关系发生变化的一个重要标志,是经济全球化过程中的重要发展趋势。美、加、墨通过建立经济合作关系,实行经济自由化、一体化,既有利于三国经济的互利合作,又促进墨西哥的政治经济体制改革,为墨西哥对外经济开放、发展外向型经济提供机遇。但美墨之间由于历史遗留问题以及墨西哥国内依然存在的强烈民族主义倾向,墨西哥经济对美国经济的过分依赖等,使美墨关系还存在不确定的变数。由于墨西哥积极发展与亚太地区和欧盟的经济合作关系,未来美墨关系的发展,以及建立北美自由贸易区统一货币等问题,是对NAFTA的一个严峻考验。     

REGULATORY FEDERALISM AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS*

ABSTRACT Recent empirical work suggests that (i) incomes are converging through time, and (ii) income and pollution levels are linked. This paper weds these two literatures by examining the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution. After establishing that theoretical predictions about whether pollution will converge are critically linked to certain structural parameters, we explore pollution convergence using state‐level data on two important pollutants—nitrogen oxides and sulfur oxides—from 1929 to 1999. We find stronger evidence of converging emission rates during the federal pollution control years (1970–1999) than during the local control years (1929–1969). These results suggest that income convergence alone may not be sufficient to induce convergence of pollutant emissions.     

Canada–Mexico Relations: Interdependence,Shared Values … and the Limits of Cooperation

This article offers a historical overview of the evolution of the relationship between Canada and Mexico, emphasizing its exiguity, its fundamental economic nature and the consequences of sharing borders with the United States. It is organized as follows: the first section covers the period going from the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1944 to the late 1960s, a period during which the bilateral relation failed to consolidate despite sporadic efforts; the second section deals with the period starting with the convergence of political visions in the two capitals in the early 1970s up to the period immediately preceding the starting of the negotiations leading to NAFTA. The period during which the most significant engagement between the two countries has taken place to the present is reviewed in the third section. The article concludes presenting some thoughts on the possibilities and limits of cooperation between the two countries.     

NAFTA's Impact on Business Environmental Decision Making

Signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) liberalized trade policy and reduced tariffs between Mexico, the United States, and Canada, but activists opposed to the treaty predicted an environmental disaster. This article seeks to analyze the dynamics of environmental spending and changes in companies' profiles following NAFTA. Our results suggest that these predictions have not come true. Through an econometric model, we explore how 2,438 industries in the 1994–2002 period made environmental decisions and how much they spent on cleanup. Estimates were made with a dynamic panel model using the generalized method of moments (GMM) method. Our results suggest that environmental investment decisions depended on business size, their technological capabilities, sales performance, and the need to comply with the standards required by customers in the international market. The last section explores policies to improve compliance with Mexico's environmental regulations and to develop sustainable, eco‐friendly manufacturing.     

京津冀地区旅游业的碳排放测算与比较研究

本文借鉴"旅游消费剥离系数"概念构建了京津冀地区旅游业碳排放量的计算方法,并对京津冀三省份的旅游碳排放指标进行了比较分析。研究表明:2010-2012年京津冀地区的旅游碳排放总量持续攀升,从591.018万吨增加到696.3万吨,而旅游者的人均碳排放总量持续递减;2010-2012年北京市旅游业碳排放总量均排名首位,河北省始终最低,但是增长势头迅猛;从人均总量对比情况看,2010-2012年河北旅游业碳排放人均总量在京津冀中最低,同时,北京人均总量却是最高的,2010-2012年京津冀地区中只有北京的人均总量逐年下降,天津旅游业碳排放量人均总量呈现倒U型变化特征,而河北呈现持续上升特征。未来京津冀地区需要从节能减排行动纲要制定、企业节能技术创新等方面推进旅游节能减排工作。     

The general equilibrium effects of high-occupancy vehicle lanes on congestion,sprawl, energy use,and carbon emissions

High-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes have been promoted to encourage carpools, reduce traffic congestion, and improve air quality. At the partial equilibrium level, commuting with three workers per automobile clearly reduces highway congestion, lowers carbon emissions, and saves energy compared with three single drivers. This paper develops a numerical urban simulation model to generate the general equilibrium effects of HOV lanes on urban spatial structure, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions. The major findings are that while HOV lanes reduce traffic congestion and improve welfare, the fall in transportation cost leads to urban sprawl, which results in higher dwelling energy use and a larger carbon footprint. Overall, the HOV lane policy has little effect on total energy consumption and carbon emissions. This is another classic case of general equilibrium effects reversing the partial equilibrium effects of an urban policy. In contrast, a gasoline tax policy leads to less urban sprawl but is less effective at lowering energy consumption and carbon emissions. Imposing congestion tolls is a more effective tool at reducing traffic congestion, saving energy, and lowering carbon emissions.     

United States–Mexico: The Convergence of Public Policy Views in the Post‐9/11 World

This article explores the state of public policy preferences between the United States and Mexico in the realm of foreign policy in the context of the post‐9/11 world, democratic change within Mexico, and the immigration protests within the United States. Specifically, we will analyze the differences and possible convergence of public policy views on the issues of terrorism, immigration, free trade agreements, drug trafficking, and foreign policy. We find that although there are differences of opinion, particularly in the application of force in Iraq and on the benefits of free trade, there still remains a significant degree of positive convergence within the policy issues of terrorism, immigration, and drug trafficking. Although there are institutional impediments to progressive policy change, future relations between the United States and Mexico do not need to be contentious as long as the focus is on the similarities, rather than the differences, in public preferences between the populations of the two states.     

旅游业碳排放强度分布及其驱动因子的时空异质研究——基于30个省(市、区)2005-2014年的面板数据分析

本文利用交通运输业、邮电业、商业、餐饮业、住宿业以及社会服务业这6个行业面板数据,在揭示2005年至2014年30个省(市、区)旅游业碳排放总量与强度的时空动态变化关系时,借助LMDI法分解出影响我国旅游业碳排放增加量的关键因素。研究结果表明:①旅游业碳排放总量在时间上呈逐年上升趋势,且中、西部地区增长速度要显著高于东部地区;②旅游业碳排放强度在时间上呈逐年递减趋势,且中、西部地区下降速度要显著低于东部地区;③影响我国旅游业碳排放增加量的关键因素取决于经济产出因子(TEO)、接待人次因子(TP)、行业结构因子(TIS)、能源效率因子(TEE)、能源结构因子(TES)5个方面,前两者为增量因子,后三者为减量因子。     

Labour Productivity and Energy Use in a Three‐Sector Model: An Application to Egypt

This article presents a model of a developing economy with three sectors — industry, agriculture and energy. Industry and energy are assumed to be demand‐constrained, but agriculture supply‐constrained. The model highlights: (a) structural transformation, through labour transfer from agriculture to industry; (b) inflation, driven by the interaction of demand and the supply constraint in agriculture; and (c) the link between energy use and labour productivity. Employing a Kaldor‐Verdoorn productivity rule in industry augmented with energy intensity — energy per unit of labour — as an argument, we emphasize that labour productivity growth is driven by energy intensity rather than energy productivity growth. As a consequence, emissions reduction without North–South technology transfer and financial assistance costs growth.     

Nuclear energy and proliferation risks: myths and realities in the Persian Gulf

The use of civil nuclear power is set for major expansion among the world's developing economies. The pursuit of nuclear energy technology offers energy-hungry developing nations access to reliable large-scale electricity supplies with very low carbon emissions. But this climate-friendly energy solution comes at a security price. Historically, one third of the 30 countries that possess civil nuclear energy programmes have weaponized them. Security threats from the proliferation of nuclear weapons might become an important barrier to the further expansion of the global nuclear energy market. Nowhere is this tension more acute than in the Persian Gulf. Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) illustrate how the establishment of civil nuclear energy programmes can pose different levels of security risk depending on a country's foreign policy. While the UAE has embraced international transparent nuclear safeguards, Iran has rejected the concerns of the international community and continues to develop uranium enrichment technology that may soon lead towards a viable nuclear weapon. However, the use of proliferation-resistant thorium rather than uranium as a nuclear fuel technology might significantly reduce the threat of plutonium weaponization in Arab states. The UAE nuclear energy model deserves the political support of western nations as the best compromise between nuclear energy expansion and nuclear security threats. This article discusses the myths and realities surrounding the diversion of civil nuclear energy programmes for military use in the Persian Gulf region, and argues that proliferation of atomic weapons is a political choice, not a certain technical inevitability.     

GROWTH,FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT,AND THE ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE CITIES

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and industrial pollution emissions in China using data for 112 major cities between 2001 and 2004. Using disaggregated data, we separate foreign direct investment inflows from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan from those of other foreign economies. We examine two industrial water pollution indicators (wastewater and petroleum‐like matter) and four industrial air pollution indicators (waste gas, sulfur dioxide, soot, and dust). Our results suggest that most air and water emissions rise with increases in economic growth at current income levels. The share of output of domestic‐ and foreign‐owned firms increases several pollutants in a statistically significant manner while output of firms from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan either reduces pollution or is statistically insignificant.     

Why wealthy countries must not drop nuclear energy: coal power,climate change and the fate of the global poor

Current estimates indicate that several hundred thousand deaths per year can be attributed to climate change. Developed countries have reacted to this growing disaster by increasing the use of renewable energies, but what is to be done with the additional electricity thus generated? Should it be used for cutting back coal‐fired energy production or can it be used for substituting nuclear energy? Priority must be given to replacing coal power, since developed countries have a strong duty to minimize the physical harm caused by their electricity generation. Dropping nuclear energy prior to coal power cannot be justified because the risks of nuclear energy pale in comparison to the suffering that emissions from coal‐fired plants inflict both on their host countries and on poorer countries in the global South that (a) do not benefit from this energy and (b) have far less capacity to cope with the effects of climate change or other environmental damages. This article argues that when faced with a choice between operating coal‐fired power plants or nuclear reactors, governments are obliged to opt for nuclear energy.     

基于低碳旅游的旅游业碳排放测度方法研讨

随着低碳理念的出现和发展,低碳旅游已经成为旅游业发展的共同方向。测算旅游业碳排放是低碳旅游发展的关键步骤,但国内关于旅游业碳排放测度的研究仍处于起步阶段。本文基于国内外相关文献研究,将目前国外旅游业碳排放测度研究分为旅游产业碳排放测度和旅游地碳排放测度两大类,并分别结合国外研究案例对这两大类碳排放测度方法进行总结和分析。最后分析了国际经验对我国旅游业碳排放测度的适用性,并针对我国旅游业碳排放研究现状进行了思考。     

NAFTA on the Brain: Why Creeping Integration Has Always Worked Better

This paper argues that since the completion of the NAFTA in the early 1990s, there has been too much focus on what governments in Ottawa, Washington, and Mexico City have or have not been doing to deepen North American integration. The NAFTA was an anomaly that obscures the larger history of incrementalism that has shaped North America's political economy. A focus on large, government-led integration projects like the NAFTA as a model for North American integration distracts from an examination of the many connections and processes taking place across borders every day. Security has become fully entrenched as a driving paradigm of North American relations. However, much of the activity in this domain and others is taking place at the bureaucratic, sub-state, and non-state levels rather than via active direction from national leadership. As scholars and analysts of North America, we would do well to move away from the NAFTA as a model for negotiating North America's future.     

Assessing the Empirical Impact of Environmental Federalism

Abstract Many theoretical models analyze the effects of decentralized environmental policymaking. The predictions range from a race to the top, a race to the bottom, or no effect. However, little empirical evidence exists to resolve this ambiguity. This paper fills the void by examining the impact of decentralized environmental policymaking in the U.S. under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. For abatement expenditures, Reagan's decentralization had no discernible impact before the mid‐1980s, but by the mid‐1980s the data are consistent with decentralization leading to a race to the top. No statistically significant effect is found on nitrogen oxide or sulfur dioxide emissions.     

Pollen evidence for major shifts in forest composition since the mid‐nineteenth‐century in the vicinity of Sudbury,Ontario

Numerous anthropogenic stressors have impacted the region surrounding Sudbury, Ontario, leading to pronounced vegetation and landscape change. Few long‐term records exist to understand the nature or timing of this change. We use pollen analysis from radiometrically dated sediments of Clearwater Lake to compare pre‐ and post‐settlement vegetation. Beginning ～1850 CE, the record shows major shifts in forest composition, coincident with settlement and the beginnings of lumbering. These changes are unprecedented for the past ～5000 years, and consist of increases in diversity and abundance of deciduous tree taxa and herbaceous disturbance indicators. While evidence of mining appears as early as 1900 CE, little effect is seen in the pollen record until ～1930 CE, when sedimentation rates increased and acidification of the lake also began. At this time, further increases in palynological disturbance indicators and minimum sediment organic matter levels indicate the period of maximum vegetation loss. As a result of reduced emissions since the 1970s, water quality began to improve in Clearwater Lake and there are some decreases in the abundances of shade‐intolerant disturbance indicators in the pollen record. However, the fact that the pollen assemblages do not resemble those prior to 1850 suggests lasting vegetation changes.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

The Impact of Energy,Transport, and Trade on Air Pollution in China

A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C50, F10, Q43, R40. 4 figures, 3 tables, 47 references.     

Investigating Private Motorised Travel and Vehicle Fleet Efficiency: Using New Data and Methods to Reveal Socio‐Spatial Patterns in Brisbane,Australia

Australian cities have seen continued long‐term growth in private motor vehicle travel that has imposed increasing vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates the spatial patterns of vehicle energy consumption on urban areas through an analysis of vehicle travel and of vehicle fleet efficiency in Brisbane, Australia. This is achieved by combining motor vehicle registration records and Australian government's ‘Green Vehicle Guide’ of vehicle fuel efficiency database. The results of a spatial analysis of the private vehicle trip distances derived from journey to work data and fuel energy consumption associated with the private‐owned vehicles decomposed to local areas show that private vehicle energy use tends to increase with increasing distance from the city centre (e.g. central business district). This analysis demonstrates that differences in vehicle trip distances and lower proportions of high‐efficiency vehicles in the outer suburbs aggravate vehicle energy consumption in those locations. The paper further compares vehicle energy use results for Brisbane against spatial patterns of suburban socio‐economic disadvantage. The paper demonstrates that access to vehicle fleet technology may compound other forms of socio‐economic disadvantage and vulnerability.