The Historical Impact of Welfare Programs on Poverty: Evidence from the American States

Over the years, there has been a spirited debate over the impact of the welfare expansion associated with the War on Poverty. Many analysts have maintained that public assistance expansion during this period decreased poverty by raising the incomes of the poor (an income enhancement effect), while others have contended that welfare expansion increased poverty by discouraging the poor from working (a work disincentive effect). There has been considerable empirical research about the historical effect of welfare on poverty, nearly all of which relies on the poverty rate (i.e., the percentage of persons with income less than the “poverty threshold”) as an indicator of the extent of poverty. However, this work has not employed designs that allow researchers to sort out distinct income enhancement and work disincentive effects. We develop a model of poverty rates in the American states that permits estimation of these distinct effects—based on state‐level time‐series data observed annually for the years 1960–90—and we find that welfare had both effects during our period of analysis. We also calculate the net impact of increases in welfare benefits on the poverty rate—taking into account both work disincentive and income enhancement effects. Our results indicate that this net impact is dependent on three variables: the initial level of cash benefits, wage levels for unskilled workers, and the share of the benefit increase provided through cash rather than in‐kind assistance. Because of historical trends in these variables, since the 1970s welfare spending has become increasingly less effective in reducing the poverty rate. However, the significance of this result for policymakers must be tempered by evidence that flaws in the poverty rate as an indicator of poverty make it so that any finding about the net effect of an increase in welfare benefits on the poverty rate underestimates welfare's ability to lessen the true extent of poverty.     

Saints, Stalwarts, and Slackers: State Financial Contributions to Welfare Reform

Considerable literature finds that spending levels are important predictors of poverty rates, both in the American states and in western European nations. Those jurisdictions with the most generous support programs generally have lower poverty rates. This article examines state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spending levels in relation to national norms, the spending ability of the state as predicted by their total taxable revenue base, and the state's poverty rate. The analysis shows enormous variation in state per capita TANF spending, with many states spending far less than the national mean and their fiscal capacity. Most of the low-spending states have the fiscal ability to fund more vigorous programs but at optimal levels; some would still fall below the national mean. In return for improved funding, these states would be candidates for increased federal assistance. A few states with a high poverty rate and usually with large numbers of poor citizens are generous spenders, indicating that funding is one component of effective programs.     

Implementing Work Programs for Poor Men

How might work levels among low‐income men be raised, as they were for welfare mothers in the 1990s? This study expands the relevant literature on both social policy and implementation. Low‐skilled men owing child support and ex‐offenders returning from prison are already supposed to work but often fail to do so. The reasons include both the recent fall in unskilled wages and the confusion of men's lives. Existing work programs in child support and criminal justice appear promising, although evaluations are limited. A survey covering most states shows that half or more already have some men's work programs, usually on a small scale. Field research in six states suggests the political and administrative factors that shape wider implementation of these programs. Work programs should preferably be mandatory, stress work over training, and be combined with improved wage subsidies. The federal government should provide more funding and evaluations.     

Capacity for Freedom – Using a New Poverty Measure to Look at Regional Differences in Living Standards within Australia

Using a recently developed measure of multidimensional poverty, the Freedom Poverty Measure, the difference in poverty rates of major cities, inner regional, and other areas have been compared. The population living in ‘other areas’ had the highest proportion of individuals living in freedom poverty. Those in inner regional areas (P = 0.0303) and those in major cities (P < 0.0001) were significantly less likely to be in freedom poverty than those in ‘other areas’. However, when breaking the analysis down to look at the different poverty rates for different age groups across the three regional classifications, it was found that there was no difference in the likelihood of being in freedom poverty between children in inner regional and other areas, adults in inner regional and other areas, and older people in inner regional and other areas. This may indicate that the disadvantage experienced by those living in regional centres has been overlooked in the past and is an emerging contemporary issue for health and education equity as well as economic equality.     

No Race in Any Direction: State Welfare and Income Regimes

This paper has two objectives. First, we examine state adoption and implementation of income support policies under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. We develop a composite measure of income support that includes welfare programs that scholars traditionally investigate and adds optional policies that encourage independence through work. Second, we engage a substantive focus on the administrative ability and willingness of states to adopt and implement sophisticated income support policies. We investigate the extent to which state government professionalism, ideology, economic resources, and racially based policies have shaped state policy. We find that the percentage of the state population is liberal; state racial demographics and governmental professionalism are critical determinants of state welfare and income support regimes. Significantly, we find no evidence that states are converging toward high‐quality, effectively financed welfare policies or income regime policies to help the poor move into and economically survive in the job market.     

Competitive Pressures and the Emergence of Mothers' Aid Programs in the United States

Do states compete in providing (or not providing) welfare services? Do competitive pressures shape state welfare program adoption? Even though interstate competition is viewed by some to be a ubiquitous feature of the American federal system and welfare state, there is mixed evidence as to whether such pressures have influenced cash assistance policy in the United States. Although evidence exists of competitive pressures in contemporary welfare program decisions, such pressures have not been found in examinations of early state welfare programs. To reconcile this seeming contradiction, I examine the impact of neighboring state behavior on the emergence of state Mothers’ Aid cash assistance programs during the early part of the twentieth century. Linking theory of intergovernmental competition to program diffusion, I argue that competitive pressures may play a greater role as programs evolve past the circumstances of initial adoption to decisions about program maintenance. Contrary to previous research, I find that state decisions regarding Mothers’ Aid were responsive to similar decisions in neighboring states. Further, there is evidence that women's political organizations were important to Mothers’ Aid adoption but not to how states subsequently structured those programs.     

Welfare Reform and Economic and Housing Capacity for Low-Income Households, 1997–1999

The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) marked the continued devolution of social policy to state and local government in addition to restructuring an ailing welfare system. Despite concerns that welfare recipients would find greater obstacles to economic stability as a result, declining welfare rolls have been accompanied by declining poverty rates over the past seven years. An important question is whether low‐income families have gained greater employment and housing capacity following welfare reform. Moreover, does capacity vary across states with different welfare policies? In addition, do families face greater economic vulnerability with respect to food scarcity and health care? This article uses the data from the 1997 and 1999 waves of the National Survey of America's Families to systematically assess differences in capacity and vulnerability among lower income families across different policy regimes. Using two measures of capacity for housing and employment, and quality of life, findings suggest that more stringent welfare rules are related to greater job and housing attainment but a reduced quality of life.     

Second‐Order Devolution and Administrative Exclusion in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program

With the passage of welfare reform in 1996, state and local governments gained substantial authority to design and implement their own welfare programs. Proponents of devolution asserted that, under devolution, local governments would be better able to tailor program administration to meet local economic needs. However, opponents contended devolution could lead to local governments seeking to control costs by limiting access to welfare. Meanwhile, existing research suggests that economics will not play an important role in determining welfare provision. This article investigates these competing claims by assessing the relationship between economic conditions and administrative exclusion, which is making programs so hard to access that potential and current recipients decide to forgo benefits, in a state that gives counties significant authority over welfare provision. To do so, I assess whether county application denial, sanctioning, and case closure rates are influenced by changes in local economic characteristics. I find that, even during periods of substantial economic distress, county practices related to administrative exclusion are largely unresponsive to changes in unemployment, child poverty, and fiscal constraints. These findings call into question the responsiveness of the devolved social safety net for poor families.     

Framing the Poor: Media Coverage and U.S. Poverty Policy, 1960–2008

Public policy toward the poor has shifted from an initial optimism during the War on Poverty to an ever‐increasing pessimism. Media discussion of poverty has shifted from arguments that focus on the structural causes of poverty or the social costs of having large numbers of poor to portrayals of the poor as cheaters and chiselers and of welfare programs doing more harm than good. As the frames have shifted, policies have followed. We demonstrate these trends with new indicators of the depth of poverty, the generosity of the government response, and media framing of the poor for the period of 1960–2008. We present a simple statistical model that explains poverty spending by the severity of the problem, gross domestic product, and media coverage. We then create a new measure of the relative generosity of U.S. government policy toward the poor and show that it is highly related to the content of newspaper stories. The portrayal of the poor as either deserving or lazy drives public policy.     

中国大城市贫困研究的多种测度与多层模型分析

基于六大城市住户调查数据,采用多种贫困测度和多层模型分析的方法,探讨中国大城市居民贫困状况及其影响因素。研究发现,大城市低收入邻里的贫困状况存在较大差异,其中广州、西安的相对丢失(relative deprivation)严重且低收入群体层级结构复杂,昆明的贫困深度大,而武汉财富集聚相对明显。贫困多层模型表明低收入邻里贫困的主要影响因素仍存在于个体层面,个体在家庭制度、市场制度、国家福利供应中所表现的特征影响了贫困发生率;城市贫困同时存在邻里效应,主要体现在邻里经济状况和贫困文化的影响作用;而城市间的贫困差异亦不可忽视。     

Discipline and Devolution: Constructions of Poverty, Race, and Criminality in the Politics of Rural Prison Development

Abstract:  The soaring expansion of the US prison population is transforming the geographies of both urban and rural landscapes. As the trend in mass incarceration persists, depressed rural spaces are increasingly associated with rising prison development and the increasing criminalization of rural communities of disadvantage. Drawing on in-depth archival and interview research in rural communities in the Northwestern states of Idaho and Montana, this paper explores how cultural productions of poverty and exclusion intersect with rural prison development. I examine how representations of poverty and criminality are entangled with processes of economic restructuring and the localization of economic development and social welfare. I explore the ways in which the rural prison geography of the Northwest is linked to the material and discursive construction of those in poverty and how these narratives are produced through local relations of race, ethnicity, and class. I suggest that the mobilization of these constructions legitimates rural prison expansion, increasingly punitive social and criminal justice policies, and the retrenchment of racialized and classed inequality. Further, I argue that these discursive imaginations of the poor work to obscure the central dynamics producing poverty under the neoliberal restructuring of rural economies and governance.     

内蒙古自治区农村人口多维贫困特征测算与分析

针对国家精准扶贫需求,构建基于A-F双临界值法的多维贫困度量模型,进行内蒙古自治区农村人口多维贫困特征的总体测算与分析,并分别分析多维贫困的空间集聚效应及不同分类体系下的贫困分异特征。结果显示:①研究区西部存在大面积高度贫困县单元,中部存在呈东西条带状分布的中度贫困县单元,东部地区贫困程度呈现"南高北低"状态;②研究区主要致贫因素为:人均纯收入、家庭健康、平均教育年限,一般致贫因素为燃料类型、资产、房屋结构,次要致贫因素为:饮水情况、通电情况、儿童入学率;且大部分贫困指标呈显著空间集聚效应;③研究区西部县际贫困特征差异较小,东部存在显著的南北分布差异;④不同类型县各贫困指标差异不同。     

Honduran boys confronting adversity: urban multi-locality and kin mobilization

This article describes ethnographic research involving street children and child labor in urban Honduras. It is set in a context of deteriorating social, political, and economic conditions that has created an increase in child labor. However, the research findings have delineated that a growing number of children are choosing to work and live on the street to escape extreme poverty and hunger in their familial households. Despite the multi-local spaces they inhabit, they have been able to create unique non-kin relations while often maintaining family based linkages. This study, undertaken in two centers for boys in Tegucigalpa and Comayagua, Honduras analyzes the contextual dynamics and decision-making processes of Honduran youth regarding work and living arrangements in urban spaces.     

Poverty,School and Work: Children during the Economic Crisis in Indonesia

The problem of child labour in Indonesia, although generally less prevalent than in other developing countries at a similar stage of development, is significant. As in other countries, this study finds a strong link between the child labour phenomenon and poverty, with the profile of child labour largely mirroring the profile of poverty. Furthermore, poverty is found to be an important determinant of whether children work. However, working does not always completely eliminate a child's opportunity to obtain formal education: children from poor households can still go to school by undertaking part‐time work to pay for their education, implying that banning these children from working may force them to drop out of school instead. Since the phenomenon of child labour is strongly associated with and determined by poverty, the most effective policy for eliminating child labour is through poverty alleviation. Other policies that can foster the rate of reduction in child labour are those which make it easier for children from poor families to access education and increase the opportunity cost of working by improving the quality of education. Such policies will increase the rate of return to education.     

"It used to be about the kids": nutrition reform and the Montreal Protestant School Board

The nutrition programs that developed in Montreal Protestant schools during the 1970s attest to a deepening awareness of child and adolescent welfare. The combination of grassroots activism and government support that brought about these initiatives took place in the context of post-Quiet Revolution Quebec, when Montrealers were grappling with the role that the newly activist state should play in social life. At the same time, school nutrition reform was part of a broader ongoing renegotiation of state responsibility. Both in Canada and the United States, governments were steadily assuming a mantle of responsibility for expanded liberal rights.     

A Potential Case of Social Bankruptcy: States' AFDC Payments and Their Teen Birth Rates

Based on a pooled time series analysis that covers a 30-year period at five different time points—1960, 1970, 1980, 1985, and 1990—this research examines the relationship between states' Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) payments and teen birth rates. Drawing on rational choice theories, we expected the effects of states' AFDC payments on their teen birth rates to be positive, taking into account states' divorce rates, population change rates, unemployment rates, racial composition, and poverty rates. The effects of states'AFDC payments were significant in a negative direction in Model 1, a random effects model; they also were significant in a negative direction in Model 2 when we controlled for the effects of year; however, when we controlled for the effects of year and state in Model 3, they were not significant. The findings do not support assumptions regarding the incentive effects of welfare that underlie rational choice theories in states where teen birth rates are higher. If anything, teen birth rates are higher in states where AFDC payments are lower. Implications for policy and further research are discussed in relation to the positive effects of states' poverty and population change rates on the state teen birth rate problem.     

The Crisis of the “Disadvantaged Child”: Poverty Research,IQ, and Muppet Diplomacy in the 1960s

In the early 1960s, the US federal government deemed poverty to be a national crisis, and actively intervened to solve this problem. My question for this article is how did preschool education become a key site to remedy this crisis? Government interventions were a combination of poverty research, racialized politics, and child development. I show how the discipline of early childhood education cohered around the term “disadvantaged child”, in turn influencing the War on Poverty policies, including the basis of Head Start preschool education. During this same decade proponents of Sesame Street—with private funding, along with extensive testing mechanisms by consultants—argued that the television could reach more children, therefore be more cost effective. This paper investigates how surplus populations became determined and demarcated, as early as three years old. I question how televised preschool taught “affective skills” and proper social relations during times of political crisis.     

Using the Public Open Space Attributable Index tool to assess children’s public open space use and access by independent mobility

This study examined associations between public open space (POS) attributes and children’s use, and independent mobility to, POS in Auckland, New Zealand. Overall 240 children aged 9–12 years and their parents/caregivers participated. Data were sourced from child travel diaries and parent telephone interviews. The Public Open Spaces Attributable Index (POSAI) assessed POS quality and quantity. Associations were examined between age, sex, ethnicity, parental licence of freedom score, and POSAI with: (1) child trips to POS and (2) independently mobile trips to POS. Children made a total of 68 trips to POS over a seven-day period; 35 of these were independently mobile. Child ethnicity was related to child trips to POS. Independent trips to POS differed by ethnicity and parental licence of freedom. This research utilised a new tool, the POSAI, to examine associations of POS use and independent mobility in children living in urban neighbourhoods.     

The Poverty Discourse and the Poor in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is cited as an exemplary case of direct poverty alleviation because of a long history of social welfare and high values in quality of life indices. Notwithstanding, anti-poverty measures in Sri Lanka founded on the international discourse of poverty and development do not serve the interests of poor people. This discourse begins by locating poor people in a distinct poverty sector and proceeds to examine its characteristics. Several attributes of that discourse make it intellectually incapable of seeing how poverty is socially constructed in a diffused nexus of production relations that extends far beyond the so-called 'poverty sector'. An alternative 'substantive approach to poverty' is presented. The arguments are illustrated using the theme of food production in Sri Lanka.     

HOW MUCH CHILD SUPPORT CAN ABSENT FATHERS PAY?

A variety of empirical studies show that custodial mothers and children are worse off after separation and divorce than absent fathers. Many of these mothers and children live in poverty and many more are above the poverty line but below median family income. Since 1974 the U.S. has had a federal-state program of Child Support Enforcement, but absent fathers still have a poor record of paying child support. To estimate how much money absent fathers could be expected to pay in child support, we used income data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census Bureau data on the number of custodial mothers and children with living absent fathers, and two systems for determining how much money absent fathers should pay in child support. Using these sources, we estimate that absent fathers could pay $26.6 billion in child support–about 3.6 times as much as they actually paid in 1984. Most of this child support money would come from upper-income families. We conclude that absent fathers could substantially augment the financial security of custodial mothers and their children, and that the U.S. should therefore pursue a vigorous program of Child Support Enforcement.