都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

都市区与非都市区的城镇用地增长特征:以长三角地区为例

作为人口与经济活动高度集聚的地区,都市区地域的发展和空间结构特征引起了大量关注。本文以长三角两省一市地区221个区县单元为研究对象,在划分都市空间单元类型的基础上,考察都市区与非都市区以及各类型都市区之间城镇工矿用地增长的差异,并据此探讨在我国特殊经济社会环境下都市区地域的空间发展规律。研究发现,不同地域单元在中心-外围关系上存在差异,都市区进入了均衡扩散阶段而非都市区以中心城市极化为主,孤立都市区的扩散效应较弱,非都市区地域的县域单元受到临近都市区的影响而呈现出不同的城镇工矿用地扩展特征。都市连绵区内不同亚区域存在发展阶段与空间关系上的差异,加剧了都市连绵区空间结构的复杂性。来自中心城市、外资拉动、县域经济内生的多重力量推动都市地域呈现独特的空间规律。     

DELINEATING METROPOLITAN AREAS USING LAND PRICES*

ABSTRACT This paper proposes an approach to delineating metropolitan areas that is more general than the standard approaches in three respects: First, it uses the fraction of land prices attributable to economies of urban agglomeration instead of using commuting intensities as an indicator of economic integration between metropolitan centers and their hinterlands. Second, it identifies metropolitan centers endogenously instead of determining them exogenously. And third, it takes metropolitan subcenters explicitly into account. An empirical illustration is used to show that the approach tends to delineate fewer but larger metropolitan areas in densely populated regions, and smaller metropolitan areas in sparsely populated regions.     

城市群规划中的管治研究——以绍兴城市群规划为例

在经济快速发展和城市化快速推进时期,城市群成为经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区。但是,我国城市群发展面临着由于市场经济改革不到位引起的市场和政府的制度性缺陷,以及市场和政府本身的功能性缺陷,导致城市群内条块经济突出、区域发展失衡、地方矛盾加剧等问题。管治作为一种在政府和市场之间进行权利平衡再分配的制度性理念,成为解决城市群发展过程中市场失灵以及政府失灵的必然选择。本文首先总结了城市群管治的理论与模式,在进行国内外区域管治模式借鉴的基础上,以绍兴城市群为例,构建适宜我国发展现状的城市群管治框架。     

转型背景下原单位职工迁居行为特征与机制——以广州市海珠区江南中街为例

本文研究原居住在江南中街单位职工的迁居行为,浅析其形成迁居意向的过程和择居特征。结果表明:单位职工的迁居比例超过60％,且迁居空间模式以近距离的近域迁移为主,近岗迁移和郊区迁移为辅,迁居方向联系较弱。分析其原因:经济改革和城市经济发展是促成单位职工迁居的基本前提,迁居户的经济能力是根本的决定依据,决定了迁出地和迁居形式。本文调查对象-单位职工具有一定的职业及收入共性,因此他们在迁居时所考虑的因素还包括了居住惯性,家庭生命周期、生活方式改变的需求及作为单位职工特定的社会因素等。     

基于GIS的西安市城市扩展与模拟研究

本文以西安市为研究区域,以2002年ETM影像和2007年TM影像遥感数据为城市扩展动态变化的主要信息来源,采用逻辑回归模型并结合GIS技术对西安市的城市空间扩展进行模拟。研究选取了道路、河流、地裂缝、地面沉降、人口和GDP等6个因子,建立了西安市城市扩展的逻辑回归模型,并根据所建立的模型对西安市的城市扩展进行了模拟,结果表明,所建立的逻辑回归模型能够较好地模拟西安市的城市扩展,对西安市城市扩展的驱动力具有较强的解释作用,其中对城市扩展影响最重要的因素为距道路距离。     

FEEDBACK BETWEEN REAL ESTATE AND URBAN ECONOMICS*

ABSTRACT This paper considers the implications of increasing land supply constraints in the United States on urban demand. First, because shifts in demand are now capitalized more into the price of land, house prices in some metropolitan areas have grown increasingly unaffordable to typical households. This might have an effect on the fundamental character of such cities. Second, the effect of home owners’ financial interests as landowners on their decisions about what regulations or investments in their communities to support may become stronger. Third, researchers may now be able to better use land prices to make inferences about urban demand. However, interpreting real estate prices still is tricky.     

温州大都市区形成机制及其空间结构研究

大都市区是发达的城市化区域,它包括城市核心区和与之在经济、社会、文化上有紧密联系的地区。21世纪到来之际,大都市区发生了巨大的变化。大都市区,无论是走向繁荣还是衰退,都面临着经济发展、基础设施建设、环境保护、社会平等发展战略问题。本文以温州为例,在对区域经济发展水平差异和客流、物流分析的基础上,界定了温州大都市区范围;通过对温州大都市区的研究认为,宏观政策机制、市场机制、工业化模式、温州人精神和温州社会网络是温州大都市区形成的重要动力源泉;最后,作者以上述研究为依据,提出了近期和远期温州大都市区空间结构设想。     

国内外城市居住空间研究的回顾与展望

住宅作为城市的重要职能和城市空间结构的重要组成部分,长期以来地理学、经济学、社会学、政治学等不同学科的学者一直关注城市居住和相关理论的研究。本文在全面阐述西方居住空间研究的理论、方法、研究领域和研究成果的基础上,对我国有关城市居住空间的研究领域和研究进展进行回顾,并展望有待进一步深化研究的领域。     

大都市边缘区农村居民对宅基地退出和定居的思考——以南京市江宁区为例

中国的快速城镇化推动了乡村发展转型与空间重构,农村居民对于土地退出、定居的想法正发生着变化。基于2014 年在南京市江宁区的问卷及访谈调查,本文探索了发达地区大都市边缘区中农村居民针对宅基地退出和未来定居的意愿。通过运用访谈资料和回归模型,本文发现村庄属性、一些个人主客观因子都影响着农村居民对于土地退出和未来定居的决策。本文还发现,相当多的农村居民倾向于在邻近小城镇定居,对宅基地退出普遍持负面态度。随着宅基地财产功能的提升、城乡一体化进程推进等方面的变化,关于宅基地流转制度的改革势在必行。     

中国八大都市区管治阶段的判定

中国正处于都市区化带动城市化发展的新城市时代,这种新的城市化发展状况要求我们关注大都市区的管治,而大都市区发展状况也与治理有着相当程度的关联。在借助城市流模型对目前中国大陆地区存在的八大都市区集聚扩散分析的基础上,通过关注各个大都市区非政府部门的发育状况,尝试性地分析了这些大都市区管治所处的阶段,并对国外大都市区研究进行总结,认为优化城市体系结构、加强非政府组织的建设、完善公民参与机制是提高我国大都市区管治效益的关键。     

新世纪大城市边缘地区发展的新理念——以长三角地区土地资源保护问题为例

从城市空间布局的观点分析,大城市边缘地区的社会经济发展用地布局是最为复杂的。过去与现代,大城市的边缘区域都是城市空间扩展的主要方向。特别是当代城市化迅速发展时期,城市边缘就是不断郊区城市化的过程。本文以长三角为例,探讨经济发达地区郊区城市化、郊区都市农业基地创建、重点小城镇发展策略以及高新技术园区建设等大城市边缘地区发展的关键性的、涉及到合理利用土地资源的根本问题,论文提出"精明增长"及其城市化蔓延带来的用地时空所引起的各项社会成本、环境成本日益增加的趋势。研究这些问题,为保护我国有限的土地资源提供科学决策。     

大都市边缘住宅开发区土地价值提升动态评估——以广州市南村住宅开发区为例

大都市边缘区住宅开发是大多数开发商的可能选择。此类开发区的土地利用性质和利用强度、地域空间结构及地理景观等方面都与城市中心区有着根本的区别,其价值处于高度动态发展中,地价迅速提升成为必然。本文首先剖析大都市边缘住宅区土地价值提升的可能性,并探讨了该类型的小区土地价值提升的评价思路、方法、对象及其参评指标体系确定等问题,最后将评估方法应用于广州市南村开发区进行了实例研究。     

基于居民出行大数据的我国都市圈识别及其分布格局

都市圈是大城市发展到一定阶段的产物,当前都市圈空间范围界定还存在争议,本文梳理了都市圈的概念和内涵,采用手机信令出行数据识别了全国都市圈的空间分布格局。分析发现,我国大部分都市圈仍处于发育阶段,当出行率阈值为 1% 时全国识别出 27个都市圈。都市圈的分布格局与经济发展水平密切相关,经济发达地区的都市圈数量多、分布密集,如东部沿海和城市群地区。中心城市的人口和经济规模,以及圈域出行距离影响了都市圈的空间范围和圈内联系程度,圈域出行规模与中心城市人口规模呈正相关,外围城市向中心城市的出行率与中心城市经济首位度呈正相关,且符合距离衰减规律。     

VALUING AMENITIES AND DISAMENITIES OF URBAN SCALE: CAN BIGGER BE BETTER?*

ABSTRACT. Considerable effort has been devoted within the recent literature to the valuation of urban amenities and disamenities, as well as to econometric procedures required for the estimation of their implicit market “prices.” This study questions the equilibrium conditions invoked within this literature to derive estimates of marginal willingness to pay, conditions premised upon “perfect” labor mobility among cities. It is shown that such assumptions need not be invoked if one considers the amenity price-mobility relationship directly. This is accomplished by appending a binary migration model to a first-stage wage equation, a procrdure that provides estimates of willingness to pay that can diverge from market-determined implicit prices. Comparison of such values yields important information on the adequacy of market compensation for disamenities (amenities) throughout metropolitan areas.     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

武汉都市圈经济联系时空演变特征分析

城市化、信息化、工业化进程的不断加速,城市群体化现象的大量涌现,使得以特大城市为核心的都市圈经济联系及其复杂性成为当前地理学研究的前沿与中心。基于经济联系发展与空间结构演替的共轭关系,通过相关统计资料统计分析,从城市化、交通化、工业化、信息化、服务产业化五方面归纳了建国来武汉都市圈经济联系的发展历程:波动发展阶段(1949-1965年)、停滞不前阶段(1966-1978年)、快速发展阶段(1979-1989年)、全面发展阶段(1990年至今);从经济联系作用的交通扩展与功能集散角度分析了武汉都市圈地域结构形态演变特征,揭示出武汉都市圈经济联系空间结构在城市扩展方向上呈现孤立-向心-离心-圈状-轴向变化,在空间形态上则表现为块状-星状-组群-圈状-带状演替,并对其未来高级形态--中部都市带发展提出空间组织构想。     

The Emergence of Inter-Municipal Collaboration: Evidence from Metropolitan Planning in Portugal

Inter-organizational collaboration as a means for policy coordination has come to be seen as a solution to difficult and complex urban challenges. In Portugal, where metropolitan governance structures are highly fragmented, critics highlight the need for better coordination between municipalities—a situation typical in many countries. We seek to understand the forces behind the emergence of inter-municipal collaboration around land use and mobility issues, using a case study method. Based on nine cases from Portugal's two largest metropolitan areas, we test a model of inter-municipal collaboration, attempting to identify the factors and conditions which contribute to the emergence of collaborative relationships. The analysis suggests several points of validation as well as propositions for extending and refining the model. We find that collaboration is facilitated by a combination of positive incentives, ambiguity and flexibility in the institutional system, an external catalyst, existing inter-organizational networks, and specific organizational characteristics. The existence of any one of these factors is not enough. A combination of several factors, possible but apparently uncommon in Portugal, is necessary. This research suggests that the Portuguese planning system may be most likely to achieve metropolitan policy coordination through a metropolitan association that can incentivize collaborative projects.     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND URBAN–SUBURBAN DISPARITIES

ABSTRACT This paper develops a spatially explicit model to examine how urban and suburban communities evolve differently with changes in local economic fundamentals such as rising income or falling commuting costs in the metropolitan area. The model highlights the importance of environmental amenities and the economy of scale in the provision of public services as determinants of urban spatial structure. Results suggest that urban sprawl, income segregation, and jurisdictional disparities are driven by the same economic conditions and thus tend to co‐exist. Rising incomes or falling commuting costs for high‐income households in a metropolitan area tend to increase land prices and public services in every community, while rising incomes or falling commuting costs for low‐income households can have the opposite effects.