马尔萨斯理论和清代以来的中国人口——评美国学者近年来的相关研究

一　马尔萨斯理论 :认同与挑战两个世纪以前 ,马尔萨斯指出 ,中国历史上的人口增长是一种没有节制的自然增长 ,它将导致粮食的短缺、生存条件的恶化和人民的贫困。马尔萨斯认为 :在生育没有控制时 ,人口将以几何级数增长 ;而粮食只能以算术级数增长。因此 ,一个社会要避免粮食和人口关系的危机 ,只有抑制人口的增长。在马尔萨斯看来 ,1 7世纪至 1 8世纪的西欧人通过晚婚和独身对婚姻进行了限制 ,减缓了人口的生育 ,形成了从人口体系内部来控制人口增长的自愿的、有道德的“预防性抑制” (Ｐｒｅｖｅｎｔｉｖｅｃｈｅｃｋ) ;而中国不仅存在着…     

《新人口论》五十年祭

马寅初作为我国最早留学美国的经济学博士,在1920年3月1日出版的《新青年》第七卷第四期上发表了《计算人口的数学》一文,表明他很早就关注中国的特殊的人口问题。20世纪30年代初,他在上海交通大学等学校专门设课讲解人口和资源问题,介绍马尔萨斯和汤姆逊等的人口理论。他对马尔萨斯人口论中的酷刻寡恩的、悲观的人口论调进行了批判,提出了适宜人口的观点,还提出了解决中国人口问题的方法。     

西方人口史研究新进展述评

20世纪中叶以来 ,西方在人口史研究方面取得了巨大进展 ,还采用了新的研究方法。这些成果不仅提供了对近代人口普查前的各国人口数量和结构等基本状况的描述 ,而且增进了历史学对一些重大问题的理论探讨 ,拓宽了历史学的视野和领域。     

白寿彝论研究史学遗产的路径和方法

白寿彝先生是20世纪中国著名史学家,在历史学的诸多领域作出了突出成就.白先生在20世纪60年代初发表的《谈史学遗产》一文,以及80年代发表的谈史学遗产的系列文章,系统地论述了他关于史学遗产,的学术见解,在理论方面和史学活动方面都产生了广泛的影响.其中,对研究史学遗产的路径和方法的阐述构成了白寿彝先生史学遗产思想的重要组成部分.     

马尔萨斯人口理论的社会文化基础

一、马尔萨斯主义兴起的原因 马尔萨斯(1766—1834)及其人口理论在中国可以说是家喻户晓,在学术界的影响更为深远。据称,其《人口原理》从1798年首次出版至现在近200年来,在社会科学领域是“争议最多的一部著作”。但是,不论人们如何评说马尔萨斯的理论,有一点则是公认的,即在经济领域,马尔萨斯第一次系统地研究了人口问题;《人口原理》的出版,使人口学说逐渐发展为一门独立的学科,马尔萨斯被称为人口理论体系的首创者。     

法国年鉴学派对20世纪西方史学的影响

法国年鉴学派自20世纪初逐步产生、形成和发展起来。此学派一反19世纪的史学传统,以崭新的整体史观和多学科的研究方法,给20世纪的西方史学以新鲜的空气。经过半个多世纪的发展,以其新颖的史学理论和不断变革的研究方法,确立了其在西方史学乃至世界史学的崇高地位。同时,不可否认其自身也有着一定的缺陷。     

坚持和发展立足于历史实际的阶级分析方法

<正>阶级观点是马克思主义理论的核心观点,阶级分析方法是唯物史观的重要方法。中国马克思主义史学一直重视阶级分析方法,积累了丰富的经验。在20世纪50—70年代,受时代氛围的影响,部分史学家对阶级的理解存在误差和偏颇,对阶级分析方法的运用出现了僵化和简单化的倾向。改革开放以来,阶级分析方法在史学研究中有所减弱,部分史学家不再运用阶级分析方法。如何看待阶级观点,在历史研究中合理运用阶级分析方法,仍是一个需要讨论的重要史学理论问题。     

山东省跨世纪人口增长模式研究

人口数量的巨大压力是当前区域人地关系失调从而制约可持续发展的重要原因。本文建立了年龄链式人口仿真模型,对山东省人口增长过程中存在的问题进行了分析,并对未来变化进行了仿真模拟。本文指出当前山东省人口仍处于高速增长时期,增长趋势将持续到下世纪20年代。本文提出了山东省跨世纪人口增长模式,即到2020年人口由快速增长模式向零增长模式过渡,总人口规模峰值出现在2020年左右,峰值人口可控制在一亿人以内,2020年后可选择适度负增长模式。     

20世纪中国史学的学科化进程

20世纪中国史学从世纪初的批判旧史学、建设新史学,到世纪末历史科学形态的确立,大致经过了历史是什么、历史理论、史学理论、史学价值的探索等四个发展阶段,基本完成了历史学学科化建设的任务。对这一进程进行总结,既可以看出20世纪中国史学发展的轨迹,又能获得一些规律性的认识。     

城市史学与中国古代城市研究

20世纪80年代以来,由于社会发展的推动、城市史学在我国的兴起、中国城市史研究传统的奠基以及多种学科发展的促进,中国的城市史研究步入了新的发展时期。城市史学是专门研究城市历史的历史学的分支学科之一,与其他学科对于城市史的研究不同,城市史学在研究对象、研究目的、研究理论和研究方法等方面具有显著的特征。加强中国古代城市史的研究应在五个方面给予更多的关注：重视综合的、系统的宏观研究;多学科参与和跨学科研究方法的运用;考古学成果在研究中的应用;探索中国古代城市发展的特性和规律;构建中国的城市史学理论。     

Democracy and political economy: Tocqueville's thoughts on J.-B. Say and T.R. Malthus

This essay examines the intellectual origins of Tocqueville's thoughts on political economy. It argues that Tocqueville believed political economy was crucial to what he called the ‘new science of politics’, and it explores his first forays into the discipline by examining his studies of J.-B. Say and T.R. Malthus. The essay shows how Tocqueville was initially attracted to Say's approach as it provided him with a rigorous analytical framework with which to examine American democracy. Though he incorporated important aspects of Say's work in Democracy in America (1835), he was troubled by elements of it. He was unable to articulate clearly these doubts until he began studying Malthus. What he learned from Malthus caused him to move away from the more formalised approach to political economy advocated by Say and his disciples and move towards an approach advocated by Christian political economists, such as Alban Villeneuve-Bargemont. This shift would have important consequences for the composition of Democracy in America (1840).     

进化之调律:斯宾塞与清末的种群竞争论述

斯宾塞学说构成清末种群进化和竞争论述的主要外在资源。斯宾塞以进化的哲学思维来缀合威廉·卡彭特、查尔斯·赖尔所代表的动物生理学和生物历史知识,回应马尔萨斯的人口论。19世纪50年代以来在中国译介和流行的正是卡彭特所代表的生理学著述片段或与其相似的种群差别认知。知识界对斯宾塞的翻译,意味着中国在戊戌时期发生了类似的理论缀合过程。清末知识人以种分贵贱、黄白同为贵种调整了斯宾塞的种群进化位阶表述,抵制欧洲人歧视东亚黄种之心。同时,他们却强化了贵贱种之间的等级关系,营造"退化""灭种"的焦虑意识和压迫感,警告需积极参与生存竞争来提升种群的心智和自律性,从而为政治变革酝酿社会气氛。     

Malthus,gender and the demarcation of ‘dangerous’ bodies in 1996 US welfare reform

This article argues that populationism as a gendered narrative provides a crucial rhetorical architecture for welfare reform debates in the USA during the 1990s. Populationism, which Joni Seager defines as ‘the dogma and the rhetoric of population alarmism and population control,’ subtly legitimized efforts to control and marginalize poor women's bodies in the context of welfare reform. The populationism underlying welfare reform hinges on a deep fear of engulfing social chaos if ‘we’ do not check the fertility of poor women, and particularly women of color. This article historically situates contemporary welfare politics by tracing in some detail how Malthus' original writings on population were constitutively linked to debates about ‘poor relief’ in early nineteenth century England. Exploring the gendered linkages between Malthus and social welfare policy in the 1800s allows us to understand how Malthus continues to haunt discourses about social welfare in the 1990s and beyond, with direct consequences for poor women and particularly poor women of color.     

Hidden footnotes: J.A. Smith,R.G. Collingwood and Croce’s conception of history

This article examines the role J.A. Smith played in introducing Croce’s conception of history into British philosophy. In particular, it examines his influence on R.G. Collingwood’s incorporation of the Italian idealist conception of history into his own philosophy. The contentions that Smith was a key popularizer of Italian idealist ideas into Britain and that he helped to shape Collingwood’s intellectual developed is not new. Yet these interrelated topics have not been explored in any great depth. Collingwood’s own reticence over his intellectual debt to Smith, a lack of interest in Smith and an unfamiliarity with his philosophy have all contributed to this neglect. This article seeks to redress this neglect through analysing how Smith nurtured Collingwood’s adoption of a Crocean conception of history. To achieve its aim, this article first analyses Smith’s own reception of Croce’s conception of history. From this, it presents a contextualist analysis of Collingwood’s development of a Crocean conception of history and the role Smith played in its adoption. Finally, this article examines why, despite Smith’s influence over his intellectual development, Collingwood failed to acknowledge the intellectual debt he owed to Smith.     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Urban Restructuring of Istanbul

After 1980s, the major cities of Turkey have experienced urban transformation process following the changes in the international trade policy and the impact of globalization. Istanbul took the highest amount of share from these transformation processes as being the most important economic, cultural and tourism centre and the most integrated centre to the world economy of the country. This paper describes Istanbul's historical development, investigates demographic profile and spatial distribution of employment and illustrates multi-centre development of the city. Decentralization of population and jobs illustrate the multi-centre development. Multi-centre development contributes to sustainable urban development which provides efficient energy use and prevents pollution. Istanbul having a long history, large population and being in a very strategic location between Asia and Europe greatly effected from globalization which is reflected in its transformation of urban structure and increased land values and thus offered great opportunities for the real estate investors. The role of Istanbul within the world hierarchy of cities is suggested for further research.     

Economic Expansion in Central Greece in the Eleventh Century

Abstract

A familiar orthodoxy in Byzantine history is that the empire's economy began to stagnate in the eleventh century. It was a turning-point marked by the development of large estates at the expense of independent peasants and the onset of demographic decline. The demographic trend has been much discussed and generally pessimistic conclusions have been reached. Recently, Lemerle has asserted that the labour force was less plentiful than land. This view has been questioned by Lefort who uses evidence from the archive of Iberon to suggest that population was increasing from the eleventh century. This paper examines the problem in another region, using the Theban tax-register as evidence that agricultural production was intensified in the eleventh century, a clear sign of an increase in population.     

The Cyclical Views of Human History in Thucydides’ Archaeology and Sima Qian’s Historical Records

Many previous thinkers have imagined that there was a glorious or harmonious period in the past better than the world of their own time, but Thucydides and Sima Qian do not describe the early stages of human society as a Golden Age. I suggest that Sima Qian marks a separation between the mythical stories and the historical spirit in China, just as Thucydides did in Greece. Further, they both presented a modified cyclical view of human history. For a better understanding of the basic characteristics of Greek and Chinese historiographies, this paper discusses the cyclical views of human history underlying ancient Greek and early Chinese historiographies through a comparative study of Thucydides’ and Sima Qian’s texts. I analyze some similarities and differences between the two great historians’ conceptions of historical process, and I conclude that Thucydides believes human intelligence develops through a historical spiral, while Sima Qian focuses on dynastic cycles with a strong moral concern.