恐怖主义的新战场

近年来,恐怖袭击事件在东非、北非和西非国家有愈演愈烈之势,这些地方正在成为恐怖主义的新战场。     

问一个听恐怖分子讲笑话的反恐专家--潘睿凡：只要有意识形态，就会有恐怖主义

P：2017年世界反恐形势发生了很多变化,总体的反恐趋势和全球分布如何？ R：过去的一年中,随着反恐的增强,恐怖主义在全球版图的分和更加分散了,甚至说是零散了。方面,是随着美国、俄罗斯、欧洲、中国等对恐怖主义的打击力度增加,尤其2017年在中东,IS史无前例地受到重创。     

动向

重点全球变暖或激化国际争端中国等被列为危险地区德国政府设立的国际研究小组日前汇总的一份报告称:全球变暖如果继续发展下去,中国、南亚的印度、巴基斯坦等国及南北非等世界各地发生争端的危险性将增大,全球安全将面临重大考验。     

国际新闻

“伦敦爆炸”的新警示7日7日,刚刚获得2012年奥运会举办权的伦敦,突然发生多起地铁和公交车自杀式爆炸事件。同“9·11事件”和“马德里火车爆炸事件”一样,基地组织的恐怖袭击活动再次引起全世界的震惊。美国《时代周刊》认为这次事件给人们带来了新的警示。欧洲将成为恐怖袭击的中心。以英国为代表的欧洲国家吸收了很多来自北非和巴基斯坦的移民。他们的后裔很多都是失业者,聚集在城市的郊区或市中心。这导致了他们与伦敦、巴黎主流社会形态的疏远。这其中大约有10000～15000名英国穆斯林支持基地组织或类似的组织。恐怖分子主要的指挥控制机构被瓦解之后,恐怖分子调整了他们实施恐怖活动     

数字

美国国务院近日发布《年度全球恐怖主义报告》称,2013年全球发生9707起恐怖袭击,造成逾17800人死亡,超过32500人受伤,2990余人被绑架或劫持为人质。从恐袭手段来看,爆炸和武装袭击是恐怖分子最常使用的手段,高达57％的恐袭通过爆炸实现,武装袭击占比为23％。     

反恐的难题

从2013年国内外发生的几次恐怖袭击来看,笔者所担心的恐怖扩散已经形成。过去恐怖活动存在严重的地域性,例如中亚、中东等不稳定地区,以及非洲的欠发达地区。在传统的反恐研究中,往往认为肃清一个区域的恐怖分子,     

美国视角下美沙安全合作及其对沙军售的影响

当伊朗不断提升和展示自己在海湾地区强大的军事战争能力,例如增强其远程导弹的力量,并逐渐拥有核武器。为确保海湾及中东地区军事平衡,维护美国再中东即得利益。美国与沙特的稳定的安全合作变得异常重要。同样,恐怖主义的威胁,伊拉克政府的软弱以及政治走向模糊;也门问题,海盗丛生,这些都在影响红海地区、中东以及印度洋地区的稳定,这也是美沙安全合作的重要影响因素。     

延边地区A级旅游景区的空间结构研究

随着社会经济的发展,旅游已成为人们生活的常态和刚需,A级旅游景区是旅游经济收入的主要方式和途径。本文运用地理集中指数、Gini系数和Kernel Density分析方法,定量分析延边地区的A级旅游景区的空间集聚特征,研究结果如下:延边地区的G=44.17,Gini=0.8766;延边地区的A级旅游景区空间分布集中,但分布不均衡,主要分布在安图县和敦化市、延龙图交界地带;汪清县和珲春市分布呈离散状态。     

中国5A级景区空间分布特征及影响因素

截至2020年年底,全国共有302家5A级景区,应用百度地图地理坐标拾取器拾取地理坐标,并将所得数据导入ArcGIS软件进行分析。本文主要采用最邻近指数、地理集中指数、核密度、洛伦兹曲线、缓冲区分析等方法,对所得地理数据和统计年鉴数据进行分析,探讨中国5A级景区的空间分布特征及影响因素。研究发现:(1)全国5A级景区在空间分布上呈现不均衡状态,属于凝聚型分布类型;(2)全国5A级景区总体分布呈现出两个高密度区和9个次级高密度区;(3) 5A级景区在全国的分布总体上东部比西部多,南方多于北方,东南沿海地区明显多于西北内陆地区;(4) 5A级景区大都分布在经济发达、人文和自然资源富集地区,且以省会城市为中心;(5)地貌地形、河流水系、交通区位条件、经济发展水平是影响5A级景区空间分布的主要因素。     

中国5A级景区空间分布特征及影响因素

截至2020年年底,全国共有302家5A级景区,应用百度地图地理坐标拾取器拾取地理坐标,并将所得数据导入ArcGIS软件进行分析。本文主要采用最邻近指数、地理集中指数、核密度、洛伦兹曲线、缓冲区分析等方法,对所得地理数据和统计年鉴数据进行分析,探讨中国5A级景区的空间分布特征及影响因素。研究发现：(1)全国5A级景区在空间分布上呈现不均衡状态,属于凝聚型分布类型;(2)全国5A级景区总体分布呈现出两个高密度区和9个次级高密度区;(3) 5A级景区在全国的分布总体上东部比西部多,南方多于北方,东南沿海地区明显多于西北内陆地区;(4) 5A级景区大都分布在经济发达、人文和自然资源富集地区,且以省会城市为中心;(5)地貌地形、河流水系、交通区位条件、经济发展水平是影响5A级景区空间分布的主要因素。     

Mental maps of global regions: identifying and characterizing “hard” and “soft” regions

ABSTRACT

This article presents the quantitative synthesis of mental maps that identify different types of world regions. It is the result of a large-scale survey conducted in 18 countries, based on a sketch map approach. The number, shape, and extension of these vernacular world regions vary according to countries, cultures, and the personal styles of respondents who drew the maps. However, when we collectively analyze the regions identified by respondents, we observe that the figures of global regions are more or less recurrent. While the most commonly used division of the world is into “continents”, we can identify “hard” and “soft” regions of the world. Whereas a “hard” region, such as Africa, can be recognized relatively unambiguously as a continent, “soft” regions may include numerous regional distinctions such as East Asia, Russia, South East Asia, and the Middle East. Our methodology involves defining a set of characteristics that discriminate between “hard” and “soft” regions (measuring spatial uncertainty and the relative vagueness of limits and fringes), then accounting for the correlation of these areas on the world map.     

China's Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Middle East

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims at connecting the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa through a combination of infrastructure projects and soft‐power programs. All of the six land bridges and maritime routes under the BRI extend westward, mostly passing through Central Asia and the Middle East on land or by sea. Cooperation with countries in these regions will, according to China's design, meet its domestic energy needs, and grow the country's economy. China recognizes, however, that in Central Asia and the Middle East, the risks posed by what it calls the “Three Evils” — terrorism, extremism, and separatism can impact the success of the BRI. They can also impact stability in its own adjacent areas, including Xinjiang. Therefore, in concert with the BRI, China is also identifying and deploying bilateral and multilateral diplomatic mechanisms aimed at security coordination with BRI countries in these two volatile regions. This article provides an overview of BRI developments in the two regions and examines some of the diplomatic mechanisms China is using to coordinate security and reduce risks.     

A forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East: US democracy promotion and the ‘war on terror’

Following the 11 September terrorist attacks, a belief has emerged that one of the root causes of Islamic extremism lies in the repressive nature of the regimes that populate the Middle East. Thus the spread of democracy has become a major component of the Bush administration's ‘war on terror’ Previously dismissed as Wilsonian idealism, the promotion of democracy is now considered a strategic necessity to address the threat posed by terrorism. Despite the significant role democracy promotion has played in the present foreign policy of the United States, the focus has tended to be on the more controversial policies of preventive warfare and coalitions of the willing. The purpose of this article is to help rectify this imbalance by examining the role the promotion of democracy plays within the current administration's foreign policy in the Middle East. It considers the logic behind America's ‘forward strategy of freedom’ in the Middle East as well as the likelihood of this strategy succeeding.     

改革开放以来中国国际影响力的提升及其空间拓展机制

采用全球媒体报道事件大数据，依据空间相互作用理论和距离衰减理论，构建国家影响力评价模型，揭示中国在全球国家体系中的地位和作用，刻画其国家影响力的演变轨迹和影响空间拓展的过程，并挖掘海量事件背后隐藏的宏观格局形成的微观驱动机制。结果表明：①1980—2015年，世界大国影响力指数呈现良好的时空惯性，欧亚大陆的边缘地带是国家影响力指数高值的分布区域。②中国国家影响力指数的提升主要依靠其经济实力的增强，提升过程表现出“先平稳后快速”的阶段特征，不同阶段呈现出不同的对外开放和外交政策特征。③与中国发生事件联系的国家（地区）基本实现全球覆盖，2015年体现为对“一带一路”沿线国家影响作用的大幅上升。④经济发展的推动作用是宏观因素，与发达大国的耦合关系、主动的对外联系、政府主导的国际合作是中国国家影响力提升的微观事件驱动因素。     

Agricultural Origins and Frontiers in South Asia: A Working Synthesis

The accumulation of recent data from archaeobotany, archaeozoology and Neolithic excavations from across South Asia warrants a new overview of early agriculture in the subcontinent. This paper attempts a synthesis of these data while recommending further systematic work and methodological developments. The evidence for origins and dispersals of important crops and livestock from Southwest Asia into South Asia is reviewed. In addition evidence for indigenous plant and animal domestication in India is presented. Evidence for probable indigenous agricultural developments in Gujarat, the Middle Ganges, Eastern India, and Southern India are reviewed. An attempt is made to highlight regions of important frontiers of interaction between early farmers and hunter-gatherers. The current evidence suggests that the Neolithic trajectories in different parts of South Asia differ from each other. Indigenous centers of plant domestication in India also differ from the often discussed trajectory of Southwest Asia, while suggesting some similarities with agricultural origins in Africa and Eastern North America as well as secondary agricultural developments on the peripheries of Eurasia. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction: How serious is the threat?

This article examines the extent to which terrorist use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons poses a tangible threat to international security. In the literature on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) some analysts have tended to exaggerate the scope of the threat and assumed that large-scale terrorist acts involving WMD are only 'a matter of time'. In short, there is a tendency among observers to converge on analogous assessments at the higher end of the threat spectrum. In this article I argue that although WMD terrorism remains a real prospect, the ease with which such attacks can be carried out has been exaggerated; acquiring WMD capabilities for delivery against targets is a lot more problematic for terrorists than is generally acknowledged in the literature. However, this is not to say that the possibility of such attacks can (or should) be ruled out. The rise of a 'new' brand of terrorism that operates across transnational networks and whose operations aim to inflict mass casualties, coupled with the destructive threshold crossed on 11 September 2001, mean that terrorist attacks using WMD will continue to be a realistic prospect in the future.     

Competing hegemons? Chinese versus American geo-economic strategies in Africa

For the first time since the era of the slave trade, African trade is arguably re-orienting from the “Global North” to the “Global East.” Chinese investment and trade with Africa is rising quickly. At the same time, the U.S. has increased its strategic engagement with Africa very significantly since the terrorist attacks of 2001. As a consequence of this, the continent has moved centre stage in global oil and security politics. This paper investigates the nature of Chinese and American investment and trade in Africa; the ways in which these governments view the continent, and explores the economic and political impacts of enhanced geo-economic competition between the West and the East there. It finds that current trends are reworking the colonial trade structure, strengthening authoritarian states, and fuelling conflict. However, there are also progressive dimensions to the current conjuncture which could be built on with more robust international coordination and action.     

EU counterterrorism strategy: value added or chimera?

Europe did not wake up to terrorism on 9/11; terrorism is solidly entrenched in Europe's past. The historical characteristics of Europe's counterterrorism approach have been first, to treat terrorism as a crime to be tackled through criminal law, and second, to emphasize the need for understanding the ‘root causes’ of terrorism in order to be able to prevent terrorist acts. The 9/11 attacks undoubtedly brought the EU into uncharted territory, boosting existing cooperation and furthering political integration—in particular in the field of justice and home affairs, where most of Europe's counterterrorism endeavours are situated—to a degree few would have imagined some years earlier. This development towards European counterterrorism arrangements was undoubtedly event‐driven and periods of inertia and confusion alternated with moments of significant organizational breakthroughs. The 2005 London attacks contributed to a major shift of emphasis in European counterterrorism thinking. Instead of an external threat, terrorism now became a home‐grown phenomenon. The London bombings firmly anchored deradicalization at the heart of EU counterterrorism endeavours.     

The Origin of African Sheep: Archaeological and Genetic Perspectives

Indigenous African sheep genetic resources have been classified into two main groups, fat-tailed and thin-tailed sheep. The fat-tailed sheep are the most widely distributed, being found in a large part of North Africa (from Egypt to Algeria) and in Eastern and Southern Africa (from Eritrea to South Africa). The thin-tailed sheep are present mainly in Morocco, Sudan and in West Africa. African sheep were domesticated outside Africa. They share a common ancestry with European and Asian sheep. Archaeological information supports separate introductions and dispersion histories for the African thin-tailed and fat-tailed sheep. The first sheep entered Africa via the Isthmus of Suez and/or the southern Sinai Peninsula, between 7500 and 7000 BP. They were likely of the thin-tailed type. Fat-tailed sheep entered Africa through its northeastern part and the Horn of Africa. Mitochondrial DNA analysis supports a common maternal ancestral origin for all African sheep, while autosomal and Y chromosome DNA analysis indicates a distinct genetic history for African thin-tailed and sub-Saharan fat-tailed sheep. The main ancestral population of southern African fat-tailed sheep likely originated in East Africa. Further work is needed to assess the possible dispersion of sheep from western Africa to the southern African regions.     

Counter‐terrorism and the Politics of Aid: Civil Society Responses in Kenya

Against the backdrop of terrorist attacks in 1998 and 2002, Kenya has come under pressure from aid donors and diplomatic circles to co‐operate in achieving the political and military objectives of the War on Terror. The Kenyan government has received legal, technical and financial support to implement new counter‐terrorism structures. However, while these have raised concerns around human rights and the ability of people to come together and organize on shared interests, the response of civil society in Kenya has been muted. It is mainly human rights campaigners, lawyers, Muslim organizations and leaders, and some politicians that have opposed proposed anti‐terrorism legislation. Even fewer groups have spoken out against the government's participation in a regional rendition programme in the Horn of Africa supported by the United States. This weak response reflects the significant ethnic and regional fragmentation that prevails in the country. This article critically examines the impacts of counter‐terrorism in Kenya and civil society responses to these in a shifting political landscape.