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Abstract

This article examines advanced ages at death in a historical population in northern Sweden between 1780 and 1900. The source material used is a set of data files from the Demographic Data Base at Umeå University supplemented with the search tool Indiko. The belief that the Sami died at very old ages was tested, and life tables and values of remaining life expectancies at older ages were calculated. The information of the age at death was analysed using a model containing four levels of certainty. The analysis reveals that the Sami did not live to extreme ages. The analysis also reveals large differences between the parishes concerning extreme longevity and correctness of age at death.  相似文献   

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Radon (Rn) is a potentially toxic gas in soil which may affect human health. Assessing Rn levels in soil gas usually requires enormous efforts in terms of time and costs, since the sampling protocol is very complex. In most cases, the variable under study is sparsely sampled over the domain and this could affect the reliability of the spatial predictions. For this reason, it is useful to incorporate, into the estimation procedure, some auxiliary variables, correlated with the in soil gas Rn concentrations (primary variable) and more densely available over the domain. On the basis of this latter aspect, it is even better if the covariates are derived from a geographical information system (GIS). In this article, the Rn sampling protocol used during a measurement campaign planned over a risk area is described and the process of deriving GIS covariates considered as secondary information for predicting the primary variable is clarified. Then, multivariate modeling and prediction of the Rn concentrations over the domain of interest are discussed and a comparative study regarding the performance of the prediction procedures is presented. Rn prone areas are also analyzed with respect to urban and school density. All these aspects can clearly support decisions on environmental and human safeguard.  相似文献   

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This paper considers the standard error of the estimate of the mean of a spatially correlated variable in the case where data are obtained by a process of random sampling. Two distinct mean estimation problems are identified: estimating the area mean and estimating the population mean. Methods are described for obtaining standard error estimates in the two cases and, within the limits of publicly available information, the methods are implemented on average household income data at the census tract scale for Syracuse, New York. The purpose of the paper is to draw attention to issues of data precision in relation to sampled geographic information on averages and in particular to consider the problems of estimating standard errors using such data. The paper also examines the extent to which standard errors vary between census tracts.  相似文献   

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The aim of this article is to find optimal or nearly optimal designs for experiments to detect spatial dependence that might be in the data. The questions to be answered are: how to optimally select predictor values to detect the spatial structure (if it is existent) and how to avoid to spuriously detect spatial dependence if there is no such structure. The starting point of this analysis involves two different linear regression models: (1) an ordinary linear regression model with i.i.d. error terms—the nonspatial case and (2) a regression model with a spatially autocorrelated error term, a so-called simultaneous spatial autoregressive error model. The procedure can be divided into two main parts: The first is use of an exchange algorithm to find the optimal design for the respective data collection process; for its evaluation an artificial data set was generated and used. The second is estimation of the parameters of the regression model and calculation of Moran's I , which is used as an indicator for spatial dependence in the data set. The method is illustrated by applying it to a well-known case study in spatial analysis.  相似文献   

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Bayesian Areal Wombling for Geographical Boundary Analysis   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
In the analysis of spatially referenced data, interest often focuses not on prediction of the spatially indexed variable itself, but on boundary analysis , that is, the determination of boundaries on the map that separate areas of higher and lower values. Existing boundary analysis methods are sometimes generically referred to as wombling , after a foundational article by Womble (1951). When data are available at point level (e.g., exact latitude and longitude of disease cases), such boundaries are most naturally obtained by locating the points of steepest ascent or descent on the fitted spatial surface (Banerjee, Gelfand, and Sirmans 2003). In this article, we propose related methods for areal data (i.e., data which consist only of sums or averages over geopolitical regions). Such methods are valuable in determining boundaries for data sets that, perhaps due to confidentiality concerns, are available only in ecological (aggregated) format, or are only collected this way (e.g., delivery of health-care or cost information). After a brief review of existing algorithmic techniques (including that implemented in the commercial software BoundarySeer), we propose a fully model-based framework for areal wombling, using Bayesian hierarchical models with posterior summaries computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We explore the suitability of various existing hierarchical and spatial software packages (notably S-plus and WinBUGS) to the task, and show the approach's superiority over existing nonstochastic alternatives, both in terms of utility and average mean square error behavior. We also illustrate our methods (as well as the solution of advanced modeling issues such as simultaneous inference) using colorectal cancer late detection data collected at the county level in the state of Minnesota.  相似文献   

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通过对《禹贡》徐州篇与《鲁颂.閟宫》所记述的海、岱、淮水、东原、大东等一系列地理景观的比较分析,本文认为二者之间有不少相似之处,存在较为紧密的联系,应是先秦时期人们对同一地域所见地理事实的记述。  相似文献   

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From the geographical point of view, urbanization is treated as a result of economic development as it affects the settlement through the spatial structure of the economy. The spatial structure of the economy and the settlement patterns determine the character of land use in particular physical environments. The urbanization process gives rise to a new, urbanized environment, involving both settlement forms and an altered physical environment. Geographers can make a contribution in urbanization research by focusing on three groups of questions: (1) an analysis of the spatially expressed factors of urbanization to gain an understanding of the mechanism by which an urbanized environment is created; (2) study of settlement and the physical environment as they change in the course of urbanization; (3) investigation of the impact of urbanization on man in terms of mobility, employment, education, etc. Separate indicators need to be developed for each group of questions, crowned ultimately by an integral, synthetic indicator (or indicators) that would offer a generalized characterization of the urbanization process as a whole.  相似文献   

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Abstract

This paper identifies a number of theoretical approaches to devices known as 'lockons': sundry objects found in builders' merchants, and some people's bodies—ie peace activists pursuing non-violent direct action. This paper raises the possibility that the transforming power of designing may be enhanced if it is acknowledged that it is most powerful when it takes place in full articulation with practices.  相似文献   

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清代甘肃进士的地理分布   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
清代甘肃进士的区域分布总体上受自然地理条件、民族构成等因素的影响;秦州和武威两地进士中式较多,地方书院教育和在任地方官在其中发挥了重要作用;和其他省份相比,清代甘肃进士中式数量偏少,其中陕甘长期合闱影响甚巨,同时甘肃地方社会支持乏力,以及本土的经济状况、社会动乱等也是重要的制约因素。  相似文献   

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‘Geographical imaginations’ constitute an important aspect in geographic research, enriching our understanding of places and societies as well as the contested meanings people have towards spaces. The marketing and development of tourist destinations offers a fertile ground for the exercise of geographical imagination. This paper explores how tourism marketing distils the essence of a place, and ‘imagines’ an identity that is attractive to tourists and residents alike. Such spatial identities, however, are seldom hegemonic and are often highly contested. Using the case of the ‘New Asia-Singapore’ (NAS) campaign launched by the Singapore Tourism Board, we explore the geographical imaginations involved in tourism marketing, and its consequent effects on people and place. Specifically we discuss the role and rationale of tourism planners in formulating the NAS campaign; the actions of tourism entrepreneurs in creating NAS commodities; and the reactions from tourists and local residents towards the NAS images. We argue that the nexus of policy intent, entrepreneurial actions and popular opinions yields invaluable insights into the highly contested processes of tourism development and identity formation.  相似文献   

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中国文学的地理分析   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5  
本文从文学地理的角度阐明了中国文学的地区差异与地域特色,分析了文学与地理之间的多层次关系及环境作用机理,并对文学与地理结合的"环境文学"发展前景进行了展望。指出,中国文学在地理分布上有着南北之分、东西之异、地域之别。地理环境对中国文学及其地域差异的影响主要表现在三个方面:即对文学作品创作内容和作者创作灵感的诱发的影响,对文学作品风格与地域特色差异的影响,对文学流派及其地域文学人才的形成以及文学中心分布的影响。认为,地理环境作为生活条件塑造着作家的文化心理素质与审美情趣,间接影响文学作品风格是环境影响文学的主要机理。文学艺术与地理、环境、生态等科学结合,是21世纪文学发展的一种趋向。  相似文献   

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The world renowned site of Great Zimbabwe is one of the most globally significant archaeological sites in Africa. Ironically, this importance is not matched by the little amount of information that is known about such an iconic site. The heritage of this regrettable situation was birthed by the destructive activities of late nineteenth and early twentieth century antiquarians who vandalised tons of evidence without record. Throughout the twentieth century, however, professional archaeologists made interventions that rescued information from various parts of the site but most of which was never published. A moratorium imposed on archaeological excavations at the site in the early 1990s failed to stimulate an active engagement with material that was archived since the first professional excavations began. Motivated by the need to understand the site in new ways, research was initiated to revisit the site’s patchy and scattered archives and to supplement them with field surveys. This paper discusses the re-mapping of the site which, for the first time, comprehensively produced themed layers of spatial, chronological and material culture distribution. The main outcome is that most existing maps ignored a large number of terraces on the hill and omitted evidence of occupation in key areas. When combined with excavation profiles that expose the massive rebuilding of the site by original residents, it becomes clear that settlement ebbed and flowed during the more than six centuries of occupation at the site.  相似文献   

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A review of Soviet research in medical geography stresses that in addition to study of the geography of disease and its causes of propagation, Soviet medical geographers are also concerned with identifying the natural factors that have a beneficial effect on the health of man. Five current research trends are outlined. For previous material on medical geography, see Soviet Geography, October 1962.  相似文献   

20.
A Soviet place-name specialist analyzes the structure of Vietnamese place names on the basis of his attendance at a place-name seminar in Hanoi and a field trip through North Vietnam in 1963–64. Similarities with Chinese place names are found, particularly in the names of administrative divisions and towns. A wide range of generic terms, some of limited local use in mountain and river names, is discussed. The possible derivation of well-known place names such as Hanoi, Saigon, Mekong, etc., is analyzed.  相似文献   

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