An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Equilibrium and disequilibrium perspectives on regional labor migration

Some alternative models of labor migration in the United States are reviewed, with particular reference to the distinction between equilibrium and disequilibrium models of migration. The authors propose alternative tests to a model developed by Joseph Schacter and Paul G. Althaus "which explicitly recognize the stock-flow interactions between net migration and the distribution of regional population stocks and which make a clean distinction between equilibrium in the temporal and in the market-clearing sense."     

Migration at the micro-scale: intra-parochial movements in rural Normandy, 1946-54

"Most working definitions of migration accept that only movements across local authority boundaries can normally be dealt with: by the use of questionnaire surveys certain urban studies have examined intra-unit moves but few non-urban migration studies have been able to penetrate below the level of local authority boundaries. In this paper use is made of various unpublished documents available in connection with population censuses in France from which it is possible to examine migration within rural communes for the intercensal period from 1946 to 1954. Twelve communes were investigated and the emerging picture of intra-parochial migrants have been compared with that of inter-parochial movers." The author notes "differences in age-structure between the two groups. Net movement takes place up the settlement hierarchy within each 'commune', whilst the reasons for movement show that between village-centres and outlying settlements there are certain social cleavages."     

Historicizing counterurbanization: In-migration and the reconstruction of rural space in Berkshire (UK), 1901–51

This article uses census data for Berkshire to argue that large-scale counterurbanization began much earlier than is generally recognized in some parts of southern England. This was not just movement down the urban hierarchy, which as Pooley and Turnbull have demonstrated was a long-term feature of England’s settlement system, but in some cases at least amenity-driven migration to rural areas of the kind increasingly recognized as a core component of recent counterurbanization. Despite a reduction of acreage Berkshire’s rural districts saw a 54% rise in population between 1901 and 1951. The sub-regional pattern of growth is assessed to gauge whether ‘clean break’ migration to the remote west of the county (which remained effectively out of commuting range from London throughout the period) was taking place, or whether counterurbanization was confined to the more accessible eastern districts. However, whilst population did increase in both west and east, it was in fact the central districts that grew most impressively. Three case study parishes are investigated in order to gauge the nature and consequences of counterurbanization at a local level. Professional and business migrants figure prominently, seeking to preserve and promote the rural attributes of their new communities, without however cutting their ties to urban centres. It is argued that migration to rural Berkshire in the first half of the twentieth century cannot adequately be described either as a form of extended suburbanization or an anti-metropolitan ‘clean break’. Rather, early counterurbanization marks the first stage on the long road to a post-productivist countryside, in which countryside becomes detached from agriculture, there is socio-economic convergence between town and country, and the ‘rural’ increasingly becomes defined by landscape and identity rather than economic function.     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

A Dynamic Model of Growth in a Central Place System

A model is developed in which the change in the population distribution of a region is linked to the employment pattern, and this latter in turn to the population distribution through the concepts of central place theory. The result is a dynamic model of interacting urban centers in which the fluctuations (the exact history) of the system play a vital role, and with which the effect of an infrastructure decision can be estimated in the long term.     

The Fractal Theory of Central Place Geometry: A Diophantine Analysis of Fractal Generators for Arbitrary Löschian Numbers

We develop material to determine whether or not an arbitrary number is Löschian; the procedure embodied in the theorems achieves the desired result more swiftly than do previous solutions to this problem. The correspondence between a partition of the central place lattice and a quadratic form permits the rapid determination of the lattice coordinates of an arbitrary Löschian number and of the exact shape of a single fractal generator used to form an entire central place hierarchy associated with an arbitrary Löschian number. Central place hierarchies may be generated geometrically using a single shape applied initially to a hexagon and subsequently, scaled appropriately, to resultant polygons. Fractional dimensions of arbitrary central place hierarchies, measuring their “space-filling” characteristics, follow naturally from this general procedure.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Private production,collective consumption,and regional population structure: the interactions between public and private good provision as determinants of community composition

"Theories of trade and migration explain the distribution of individuals among regions based on private good productivities. The theory of local public goods (LPG's) uses collective good consumption economies to explain the size and composition of communities. This essay combines the two theories, to explore regional population heterogeneity and stability. Assuming that individuals must consume and produce in the same jurisdiction, the paper examines the nature of efficient allocations, the tensions between the private and public incentives, the nature of the equilibrium (if any) which migration among jurisdictions will generate, and how such equilibrium will depend on tax rules for sharing the costs of the LPG."     

基于Kernel密度解释的江苏省城市规模结构演化研究

城市规模结构研究可以反映城市在不同规模等级中的分布状况及城市人口集聚或分散程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段以及该区域城市化进程的特征。研究运用Kernel城市空间密度分析方法,直观的反映了江苏省城市规模分布格局的连续变化。分别从城市体系的空间格局、城镇密集带的结构变化和长三角城市群城镇网络构建等视角对城市规模结构进行探讨,指出全省城市规模空间分布的Kernel密度在整体上具有西高东低、南密北疏的态势;城市体系的空间模式由最初的核心-边缘结构,逐渐向点-轴-面结构演化;南京都市圈的进一步延伸,将促进长三角多核心巨型城市网络向更大地域范围拓展。由此提出全省在不断优化城市体系的同时,需要更加注重大中城市及小城镇协调发展机制的建设,加强对苏中、苏北地区城市人口规模的扩张和城市规模布局的均衡,建立具备完整城市功能的网络城市发展模式,以更好的促进区域一体化发展。     

SPATIAL ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE IN AN URBAN HIERARCHY SYSTEM

ABSTRACT. This paper develops a model to examine the economic interaction between central places and their hinterlands. The model allows interindustry linkages and upward trade flows in an urban hierarchy system. Trade balance equilibrium between hierarchical levels is established by direct mutual interlevel trade, rather than by indirect trade via the rural sector. The economic base multipliers generally increase with city size but occasionally they could be smaller than those of lower places. A continuous urban hierarchy is formed due to their relative location within the system, not to unspecified randomness.     

Urban Hierarchy and the Rank-Size Distribution

The paper analyzes some connections between the rank-size distribution of cities and central place population models. Compatibility conditions with the rank-size distribution are determined for the models considered. The values for two specific parameters under these conditions are determined, and additional interpretations of the rank-size distribution are suggested.     

Visual artists: counter‐urbanites in the Canadian countryside?

Professional visual artists have always enjoyed considerable latitude in the selection of a place of work and residence. Recent decades have witnessed their growing presence within the Canadian countryside. This paper seeks to provide an interpretation of this phenomenon by exploring two sub-objectives. First is to determine whether artists who establish themselves in rural communities can be considered to be part of the counter‐urbanisation movement, involving the relocation of urban residents down the settlement hierarchy. Second is to identify what types of migration are occurring and why. Our surveys of visual artists residing in the southern Ontario communities of Elora and Parry Sound reveal that most participants are part of a movement involving the decision to take up both residence and employment in a rural locale. We further find that the relocation of visual artists is driven to some extent by a strong attachment to natural landscapes. By way of conclusions, we briefly speculate about the broader population of urban residents. We remind ourselves that artists often have been harbingers of new movements and that today there are growing numbers of workers outside the artistic community who also have increasing latitude in regards to choosing where to live and work. Overall, our findings suggest that there is ongoing blurring of geographic boundaries—between space and place, between place of work and place of residence and, of course, between rural and urban.     

新型城镇化下中部流出地村庄的人口转型特征与微观成因——以湖南岳阳市为例

新型城镇化驱动下,乡村人口转型呈现就近非农化不断增强等新特征。本文以岳阳市为例,首先揭示人口转型的总体格局,选定城关型、偏远山区型、传统农业型三个典型村庄,全面透视其外出、常住人口的转型特征,揭示自然本底、地域经济、社会服务的影响。发现：中部地区人口以流向省外为主,但回流增强,主要流向镇街;城关型村庄人口以就近（地）非农化为主;偏远山区村庄异地城镇化为主、就近非农化为辅;传统农业村庄人口外流、就近城镇化与非农化并存;村庄资源禀赋及利用程度、地域经济水平、生活服务配套等对人口外出程度和距离、择居（业）、年龄和家庭结构、村庄兴衰有不同影响,城镇化应因况施策。     

From central place to central flow theory: an exploration of urban catering

ABSTRACT

The research shift from central place theory to central flow theory has demonstrated the influence of information technology on cities. The study explores this shift at the city scale of urban catering industry in Nanjing, China. A comprehensive set of indicators of E-WoM for the catering industry has been established. Based on this, the spatial distribution patterns of catering industry in Nanjing, China have been discussed to examine the relationship of restaurants distribution and the central place theory or the central flow theory using a data analytical approach. The results revealed that the spatial distribution of restaurants’ density in Nanjing follows a traditional central place theory, but the spatial distribution of restaurants’ E-WoM in Nanjing rather follows the central flow theory. In addition, different characteristics could be found in different types of restaurants’ E-WoM distribution. Mainstream cuisine follows central place theory but is inconsistent in urban business districts, which demonstrate some characteristics of central flow theory. The distribution of E-WoM of non-mainstream cuisine is similar to the E-WoM distribution of overall restaurants, showing a central flow pattern. Finally, the implications of the study are drawn.     

The Migration of Australians to Bali,Indonesia: More than Retirees and Surfers

The factors underpinning the migration of Australian residents to Bali, Indonesia, and the demographic characteristics of the Australian expatriate population in Bali are examined. It is argued that in undertaking a move to Bali, Australian expatriates are employing a deliberate strategy to utilise their existing financial resources and social networks to gain a lifestyle they perceive would not be available to them if they were to remain in Australia. However, it is also argued that there is considerable diversity in the factors underpinning migration decisions. Through a survey of 236 Australians living in Bali, it was found that a complex of place‐based and non‐place‐based factors influenced migration decisions. It was also found that some factors underpinning migration were broadly associated with phase in the life course. While the survey identified only a minor overrepresentation of Australian retirees living in Bali, given the factors that were identified as underpinning migration to Bali, and with the large baby boomer population nearing retirement, it is probable that as Australia's population ages, there will be further growth in the number and proportional share of older Australians living in Bali.     

Settlement Patterns and Development of Social Complexity in the Yiluo Region,North China

Abstract

This international, collaborative, and interdisciplinary archaeological program examines changes in settlement patterns from the early Neolithic to the full development of states (ca. 6500–200 B.C.) in the Yiluo region of central north China. Full-coverage regional surveys are integrated with geoarchaeological investigations, ethnobotanical studies, and lithic analyses. The data are used to assess changes in population, environment, land use, agricultural production, and craft production, and to test theoretical propositions regarding the emergence and development of social complexity. Research results suggest a significant sociopolitical transformation taking place in the Yiluo basin during the Erlitou period, including the development of the first four-tiered settlement hierarchy, marked population nucleation, and economic integration between urban center and rural areas. These changes indicate the emergence of the earliest state in China.     

城市规模分布模型的应用——以珠江三角洲城市群为例

城市规模分布定量研究是城市规划中的一项基础性研究工作,它对于准确地预测城市人口规模以及合理地确定城镇体系结构具有非常重要的意义。本文应用城市首位律、位序-规模律、基尼模型对珠江三角洲城市群的城市规模分布及其变化特征进行了实证分析,同时指出了应用这些模型过程中应注意的若干问题,包括模型的运用范围、理想值、相关性、城市规模基础指标的选取等等。该研究旨在解决我国城市规模分布定量研究中的一些问题与困扰,以期能为城市规划实践提供一定的借鉴。