基于GIS的蔚县乡村聚落空间格局演化与驱动机制分析

以蔚州志和蔚县地名资料汇编为数据源,借助GIS核密度估计方法研究了蔚县乡村聚落商周时期至清朝3000多年间的空间格局演化特点。总体演化过程呈现由集中分布趋向随机分布的特征;演化过程中形成了四个不同阶段的区域空间格局:"缓慢增长的壶流河一侧‘一’字形‘双核’分布模式"、"普遍增长的壶流河下游‘多核’分布模式"、"快速增长的壶流河两侧大范围增长带的空间扩展模式"、"稳定增长的壶流河两侧带状‘多核’空间分布模式"。根据演化特点和历史文化资料分析,总结了蔚县乡村聚落演化的自然条件、军事历史条件、人口迁移和经济贸易发展四个方面驱动因素。研究表明核密度估计法可以较好的表现聚落空间格局,方便历史聚落演化不同阶段的对比分析。     

Investigating the Influence of Spatial and Temporal Granularities on Agent‐Based Modeling

Epidemic agent‐based models (ABMs) simulate individuals in artificial societies that are capable of movement, interaction, and transmitting disease among themselves. ABMs have been used to study the spread of disease at various spatial and temporal scales ranging from small communities to the world, over days, months, and years. The representations of space and time often vary between different epidemic ABMs and can be influenced by factors such as the size of a modeled population, computational requirements, population environments, and disease‐related data. The influence that the representations of space and time have on epidemic ABMs is difficult to assess. Here we show that the finest representations of space and time—termed spatial and temporal granularities (STGs)—in a parsimonious ABM affect speed, intensity, and spatial spread of a synthetic disease. Specifically, we found disease spread faster and more intensely as spatial granularity is coarsened, whereas disease spread slower and less intensely as temporal granularity is coarsened in a parsimonious ABM. Our study is the first to use the same epidemic ABM to examine the influence of STGs. Our results demonstrate that STGs influence ABM dynamics including early disease burnout and that an interrelationship exists between the coarsening of STGs and the speed and intensity at which disease spreads. Our parsimonious ABM is extended based on a structured community model and we found STGs also influence ABM dynamics in a more realistic context that includes hierarchical movement. Broadly, our study serves as a basis for further inquiry toward the influence of space–time representations on more realistic models that include multiscale mobility, routine movements (e.g., commuting), and heterogeneous population distributions.     

Reconstruction of diffusion processes at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

Reconstruction of diffusion at local scales: the 1846, 1882 and 1904 measles epidemics in northwest Iceland.

Because medical records of individuals contracting measles were not kept in northwest lceland for epidemics before 1904, the spread of the disease in 1846 and 1882 has been traced from notifications of death recorded in burial registers and census returns. Using this evidence, a time-space matrix of measles deaths has been constructed and the dynamics of the diffusion process through a necklace of small communities strung along the coast has been analysed. In each of the three epidemics the mortality curve corresponded closely to an S-shaped logistic model, each new epidemic passing through the area more rapidly than its predecessor. The operation of a neighbourhood effect from a single point of introduction implies that the disease should move in a wave-like form through the area. Whereas the 1882 epidemic advanced steadily as a wave-front progression characteristic of the neighbourhood effect, those of 1846 and 1904 had strong spatial biases towards the parish of Eyri. The intense localization of the outbreaks in 1846 and 1904 appears not to be related directly to distinctive features in the demography or form of the settlement. In 1904 a confirmation service held in Eyri church brought many victims into contact with a measles carrier, but no special circumstances have been reported or can be deduced for 1846.     

清代常平仓粮食储额的空间格局

根据嘉庆《大清会典事例》和不同年代刊印的《户部则例》中的记载,结合有关人口、灾害数据,恢复了清代常平仓粮食储额的空间格局。通过分析发现,康雍时期,各地常平仓粮食储额的确定,依据地区规模和人口数量,较为简单和整体划一;乾隆以来,常平仓储额在空间分布上呈现东部和西北地区高、中部和西南地区低的格局,它的形成受到了人口数量、受灾情况、地理条件、区域脆弱性和政治、军事等因素的影响,具有一定的合理性。     

传承性视角下乡村聚落历史时空格局特征及演化研究——以广东省连州市为例

在采用地名志及相关史料的基础上,通过从时间和空间两个角度,解读连州市乡村聚落格局演化及形成原因。研究结果表明:连州早在西汉元鼎六年即已设立,后随南北交通线和区域开发进程演变,在时间上,可划分为六个发展阶段,以明清时期增长最快。在空间分布上,连州市乡村聚落具备空间传承性,连州镇是连州市乡村聚落增长的核心,各时期乡村聚落密度最大的乡镇均位于市域的中西部和东北部地区,聚落密度较小者集中于北部少数民族聚居区与东部高山区。在此基础上,从自然地理条件、移民、交通、经济发展、民族构成等五个方面对连州市乡村聚落建立和发展的影响进行了探讨。     

The changing shape of island epidemics: historical trends in Icelandic infectious disease waves, 1902–1988

Iceland's centuries-long history of epidemics with its unusually complete disease records has attracted study from several disciplines. But detailed spatial data of particular interest to historical geographers date only from 1895 and were consistently maintained for about a century thereafter. Within this period, this paper concentrates on morbidity records of reported cases of infectious diseases for an 87-year window which was open between 1902 and 1988. In this time slice, spatially detailed data for seven demographically important infectious diseases allow the geography of 131 discrete epidemic waves with a recorded total of 529,000 cases to be tracked. Changes in the behaviour of the seven diseases over the period are analyzed and related to both epidemiological theory and to the changing historical geography of the island. The paper complements earlier Icelandic work by the authors on the historical geography of single diseases (measles, influenza and poliomyelitis) by extending the range of diseases, and by considering their common spatial behaviour and their interrelationships.     

The Poisoned Arrows of Amor: cases of syphilis from 16th-century Iceland

While syphilis spread rapidly in Europe during the late 15th and early 16th centuries, scholars have doubted that the disease reached Iceland at that time. Still, discoveries of nine cases of venereal and congenital syphilis during a recent excavation on a monastic site, Skriðuklaustur (1496–1554) in East Iceland, indicate that the disease became an epidemic there, as it did worldwide. These findings may also be regarded as an important source of information on the contacts and communications of a country, which is commonly regarded as having been socially isolated from the outer world, with its neighbouring countries during the medieval times.     

Population geography and HIV/AIDS: The challenge of a ‘wholly exceptional disease’

This paper justifies and elaborates Huw Jones’ identification of HIV/AIDS as a ‘wholly exceptional disease’. It identifies the global pattern of the disease and how geographers have dealt with it, and considers its exceptional character in respect of its medical, demographic and behavioural dimensions. Implications of these dimensions are integrated into discussions of geographers’ use of two major conceptualisations in population analysis: the demographic transition model and disease diffusion models. It is argued that HIV/AIDS is wholly exceptional in that its essentially behavioural character — both in terms of spread and control — must strengthen the case for more explicit behavioural perspectives in population geography.     

Small Things Forgotten Now Included, or What Else Do Things Deserve?

We have turned to things, it is argued in different contexts by social and cultural scholars. The previously neglected stuff of life is back and now deserves to be embraced and included in our histories and democracies. This paper discusses our efforts to include these others and seeks to reflect on how some of our gestures of inclusion may not be as humble and tolerant as we like to argue. With reference to an ongoing archaeological research of a recently abandoned herring station in Iceland??s northwest the paper discusses how the archaeological remembering of this site, and its inclusion in historical narration, can in fact easily result in the active forgetting of things, their fragmented and discontinuous memory and their utter silence.     

对沿江史志错载渡江时间的考证与反思

一些沿江史志著作和渡江战役资料,错误记载本地渡江时间,这一错误的广泛传播产生了很大的负面影响。错载渡江时间的原因有三个方面：1．史志工作者采纳的资料靠不住。2．成书过程缺乏与周边史志部门交流和探讨。3．沿江史志著作缺少注释。史志著作错载渡江战役时间是当时当地人们包括史志工作人员对历史认识局限的一种反映,既是编史修志过程中不可避免的现象,又应该引起史志工作者的足够重视,从中汲取有益于日后更好治史的教训。消除错载影响是史志工作者的责任,史志部门应该认真对待,及时公开纠误,把历史真实面貌原原本本地交给广大读者。     

EPICENTRES OF MISSING DAUGHTERS

The spatial spread of the female child deficit in India has been explored in terms of hot spots (with high deficits) and cold spots (with more female-favourable child sex ratios). It has been argued, using the Census of India data from individual censuses, that there is a contagion effect for both hot spots and cold spots. This paper takes this discussion forward by asking whether such an effect can be seen across censuses. To do so, it develops the concept of an epicentre to see whether a hot or cold spot in one census spreads shock waves across a wider region in later censuses. The longitudinal analysis of child sex ratios over three censuses—1991, 2001 and 2011—shows that the hot spots are epicentres for the spread of female child deficits, while the cold spots display a reverse effect.     

历史时期中国麝与獐的区分

麝与獐有颇多相似处,致使古今文献记载都有将“麝”误称作“獐”现象,进而造成一些研究历史时期动物分布与变迁学者的失误。文章在考证文献记载相关物种的时空基础上,综合麝与獐不同的形态特征与空间分布,尤其是生态环境变化与古今延续等相关情况,对历史时期麝与獐的分布进行研究与鉴别,提出此二物种既有各自的单纯分布区,也存在同域分布现象,并划分出这些区域。     

《山海经》昆仑山位置新考

本文利用《山海经》中昆仑山产玉、火山、流沙、水系四个方面的记载,结合现代自然地理学证明上古狭义的昆仑山即今和田地区南部的昆仑山,广义的昆仑山还包括喀喇昆仑山、阿里高原。祁连山不符合上述四个条件,因此昆仑山不可能是祁连山。汉籍中昆仑山和佛典中阿耨达山的地理相似,其知识可能来源于高原游牧民族。     

DISOBEDIENT BOYS AND PROMISCUOUS GIRLS

ABSTRACT

Since the 1990s, numerous public investigations have been carried out around the world on the abuse of children in out-of-home care. In the case of Iceland, commissions were appointed by the Icelandic government in 2007 to examine the historical abuse of children and youth in institutions monitored by local or state authorities during the second half of the 20th century. All the institutions subject to national investigations in Iceland were created during the postwar era, the earliest one in 1947. This article addresses the discourse on institutions and out-of-home care from a long-time perspective. It is shown that ideas on those institutions came to the fore during the early 20th century and were closely linked to progressive ideas on child welfare at the time. World War II and the British occupation of Iceland shaped the views on institutional care, and the postwar era was a period of intensive institutionalization of children and youth. The study also shows that the rhetoric concerning disobedient youth was heavily gendered. Whereas boys were accused of petty larceny, truancy and vagrancy, the main evils of girls were related to their morals, promiscuity being their chief vice.     

Spatial-Temporal Spread of the AIDS Epidemic, 1982–1990: A Correlogram Analysis of Four Regions of the United States

We applied correlogram analysis to county-level AIDS data of four regions—the Northeast (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania), California, Florida, and Louisiana—for the period 1982–1990 to characterize the spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic. Correlograms computed from yearly incidence rates differ substantially among these four regions, revealing regional differences in the spatial patterns and intensity of AIDS spread. A general trend of increasing spread to rural America, however, can still be detected. Contagious spread was predominant in the Northeast throughout the nine-year period, whereas California was dominated by hierarchical spread through time. The spatial-temporal changes of AIDS incidence patterns were most drastic in Florida, where the correlograms show hierarchical spread in the early years and then contagious spread in the later years. As a representative region for most other states in the United States, Louisiana has low spatial autocorrelation and no definite spatial pattern of spread. Grouping data into three-year periods for states with low yearly incidence rates such as Louisiana should help identify the dominant trends for these states. The correlogram results could provide useful insights into the specification of spatial models for AIDS forecasting.     

Roman Rhine settlement dynamics evidenced by coin distribution in a fluvial environment (Oedenburg,Upper Rhine,France)

On the basis of archaeological and alluvial records, this paper presents the first spatial analysis of artefacts in relation to the evolution of the Rhine River, at the Gallo-Roman site of Oedenburg, during the first four centuries AD. The dataset consisted of several thousand Roman artefacts found by pedestrian prospecting over the last twenty years, over half of which were coins. This dataset was used together with high-resolution topography and geomagnetic mapping, to reconstruct settlement evolution, both on the terrace and in the floodplain. A comprehensive monetary chart has been compiled for the Oedenburg site, which highlights four major phases of settlement. These results provide a possible causal link connecting historical factors and alluvial events with intra-site evolution. Therefore, while changes observed during Phases I (until AD 68), II (AD 69 to AD 180) and III (AD 180 to AD 295) seem largely related to historical and societal events, Phase IV (AD 295 to AD 402) shows patterns of abandonment of the lower part of the floodplain that may well be related to an unusually humid period in the fourth century. These results are set in a broader context, from the Rhine catchment area to the Alps, and are in agreement with the wet conditions also documented in alluvial, lacustrine, geomorphological and palynological records in Germany (Lahn River, Lake Constance, Lake Nussbaumen, Kaisersthul area and the Black Forest). Studying the intra-site spatial distribution of artefacts with high temporal constraints, at a long-lived site with contrasted topography, opens new avenues for the detection of discreet events such as a higher water table, affecting only the lower zone.     

Spatial Planning Harmonisation as a Condition for Trans-National Cooperation

This paper explores a possible direction for enabling trans-national cooperation in Europe through forms of spatial planning harmonisation. The specific case considered is that of the trans-national border area located in the wider Alpine-Adriatic context, comprising Carinthia (Austria), Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy) and Slovenia. Starting from a general analysis of spatial planning systems and identification of operational difficulties which may emerge within any one Member State's planning system—and which then may be compounded in a trans-national context—the paper considers the establishment of a “shared knowledge base” as well as a “shared vision” between the Member States as preconditions to fostering trans-national cooperation.     

《满洲实录》成书考

《满洲实录》是记载满族先世源流及清太祖努尔哈赤事迹的官书。本文考证了《满洲实录》的前身《太祖实录战图》的来历以及与太祖实录的关系,澄清了《太祖实录战图》是一本没有文字的图册。还考证了《满洲实录》成书的时间,并从文献记载和历史事实两方面,指出《满洲实录》83幅插图当中,前6图是乾隆时期所补绘。另外,本文还论证了《满洲实录》中清高宗题诗注文所言"实录八册"为《太祖实录战图》八册,而非后世学者以为的《满洲实录》八卷。在以上考据的基础上,本文首次在史学界揭发《满洲实录》是一部清高宗亲自参与作伪的伪书,并分析了清朝统治者作伪的动机。最后,鉴于《满洲实录》是一部伪书,本文还重新评定了《满洲实录》史料价值。     

Geographies of steam: mapping the entrepreneurial activities of steam engineers in France during the second half of the eighteenth century

Entrepreneurship played a crucial role in the development and diffusion of steam technology. To account for this, we need to map the entrepreneurial activities that helped spread steam technology across Europe and beyond. Because tracing this history’s contours requires attending to local contexts, strategies and uses along with large-scale trajectories, it makes sense to speak of historical ‘geographies’ rather than of steam technology’s historical ‘geography’. Speaking of geographies in the plural also refers to the recognition that places can simultaneously be located in multiple spatial situations, their geographical identities the product of historical work, negotiation and perspective. To illustrate these points, this essay begins by reflecting on what might be called the ‘spatial turn’ in the history of technology and the role of entrepreneurship in the spread of steam technology in France during the second half of the eighteenth century, which is the historical focus of this essay. It then discusses a small number of representative cases of entrepreneurial engagement with steam technology in France and concludes by considering what this tells us about the relationship between the French state and its regions and the impact of the French Revolution in this geographically complex history.