资源、环境约束与制造业增长模式转变

本文运用非参数的环境生产前沿方法,通过构建产出端既包括行业产出增长,又包括污染物排放的方向性环境技术效率评价模型,以规模以上制造业28个行业为研究对象,采用线性规划求解方法,研究资源环境约束下制造业的增长模式,探讨制造业增长模式转变的可行性。认为,中国制造业环境技术效率提高明显;考察期内,烟草制品业、皮革毛皮羽毛(绒)及其制品业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业三个行业环境技术均达到了效率前沿面;2003年成为制造业和轻、重工业环境技术效率发生变化的转折点。在现有技术下,转变制造业高能耗、高污染的粗放型增长模式,使制造业向"低投入-高产出-低排放"的集约型增长模式转变具有一定的可行性。     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF 1963–77 REGIONAL MANUFACTURING GROWTH: WHY THE SOUTH AND WEST GROW*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1963–77 manufacturing employment growth in the 48 contiguous states. Six factors jointly explain 96 percent of the variance. Markets explains 55 percent; climate, 15 percent; a rural state attraction, 11 percent; unionization, 6 percent; thresholds, 5 percent; and amenities, 4 percent. Resources, taxes, and business climate lack significance. Sunbelt-Frostbelt is a false dichotomy: the Northwest grew as fast as the South. The real contrast–largely caused by markets–is between growth rates of 6 percent in the Manufacturing Belt, 35 percent in its bordering Transition Zone, and 58 percent in the combined South and West.     

THE IMPACT OF MARGINAL BUSINESS TAXES ON STATE MANUFACTURING

We estimate the impact of manufacturer business taxes on value added during the 1990s for 15 manufacturing sectors in 20 U.S. states. When the tax climate is properly measured as the potential liability arising from new investment in a state, we estimate that a 10 percent reduction in the effective tax liability is associated with a 3.5 to 5.3 percent increase in value added for the state's targeted manufacturing industry. When we isolate the value of industrial incentives from the basic tax system in our theoretically preferred marginal tax measure, we find that a 10 percent reduction in liability achieved by way of lowering taxes is associated with a 4.5 percent increase in value added while an equivalent reduction achieved by way of increasing incentives is associated with only 1.2 percent industrial growth, the latter elasticity not statistically different from zero.     

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF U.S. CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: STYLIZED FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE POLICY

We characterize the evolution of U.S. carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions using an index number decomposition technique which partitions the 1963–2008 growth of states’ energy‐related CO₂ into changes in five driving factors: the emission intensity of energy use, the energy intensity of economic activity, the composition of states’ output, per capita income and population. Compositional change and declining energy intensity attenuate emissions growth, but their impacts are offset by increasing population and income. Despite absolute interstate divergence in both emissions and their precursors, states’ emission‐ and energy intensities—and ultimately, CO₂—appear to be stochastically converging. We assess the implications of these trends using a novel vector autoregression (VAR) emission forecasting technique based on our index numbers. The resulting emission projections are comparable to, but generally exceed, those forecast by the 2010 EIA Annual Energy Outlook.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES IN MANUFACTURING, 1959-73*

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the determinants of productivity growth in the manufacturing sector of states over the period 1959-1973. Special emphasis is placed on isolating the effects of a state's urbanization characteristics on productivity growth. Urbanization characteristics considered include the spatial arrangement of cities along with the standard measures of urbanization. The results indicate that while both scale economies and technical change are related to urbanization characteristics the effects tend to be offsetting; no relationship is found between urbanization and overall productivity growth as measured by total factor productivity growth.     

Labour Productivity and Energy Use in a Three‐Sector Model: An Application to Egypt

This article presents a model of a developing economy with three sectors — industry, agriculture and energy. Industry and energy are assumed to be demand‐constrained, but agriculture supply‐constrained. The model highlights: (a) structural transformation, through labour transfer from agriculture to industry; (b) inflation, driven by the interaction of demand and the supply constraint in agriculture; and (c) the link between energy use and labour productivity. Employing a Kaldor‐Verdoorn productivity rule in industry augmented with energy intensity — energy per unit of labour — as an argument, we emphasize that labour productivity growth is driven by energy intensity rather than energy productivity growth. As a consequence, emissions reduction without North–South technology transfer and financial assistance costs growth.     

西方地理学界关于生产性服务业作用研究述评

生产性服务业是目前西方大部分服务业体系中对国民经济作用最显著的部分,20世纪70年代以来,西方学者关于生产性服务业作用的研究日益增加。总括而言,西方地理学者对生产性服务业作用的研究主要从四个方面进行:生产性服务业对城市与区域整体发展的作用、对地区的制造业发展的作用、对地区其他服务业发展的作用,以及对城市等级序列重构的作用。其中,主要是从产业的内在功能和布局两个角度研究生产性服务业的作用。     

Drinking-Place Names in the Central United States

Regional patterns in the names of commercial drinking establishments are explored with reference to the delimitation of culture areas in 15 states between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. A data base of over 6.000 names, taken from 105 yellow-page telephone directories, represents some one-third of all establishments, with a focus upon cities of small and medium sizes

Four categories of names are examined: generic, environment-related, ethnic-social and "western." Quantitative expressions of nomenclature are augmented with a frequency measure of all establishments in constructing a set of nine drinking-place regions, the most definitive of which are titled Bar Bell, Beer Parlor Belt, Dixie Drought Belt and Drinking Club Belt.

Drinking-place regions are at greatest variance from recognized culture areas in respect to the West, the northern Middle West, the northern Rio Grande Valley and a tri-state zone from southern Kansas to northern Texas. More intensive studies of drinking-place names, as a possible prelude to full cultural reexaminations, are recommended for these four geographic sectors in particular.     

PATTERNS AND DETERMINANTS OF PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY IN STATE MANUFACTURING*

ABSTRACT This paper uses a stochastic frontier production-function model to measure and compare productivity efficiency in the manufacturing sector of states in the United States over the period 1959–1972. Based on this model we find considerable variations in productive efficiency across states. A large portion of the variation is found to be related to regional differences in labor-force characteristics, levels of urbanization and industrial structure. We also examine the relationship between productive efficiency and the subsequent growth of manufacturing and find some evidence of a weak relationship between efficiency and the growth of employment.     

Total Factor Productivity in the Contiguous United States, 1977–1986

A linear programming technique is used to measure total factor productivity change in the contiguous 48 states during the period 1977 to 1986. The technique allows the decomposition of productivity change into its constituent parts: technological change, changes in pure technical efficiency, and changes in scale economies. This decomposition is used to identify "innovative" states that are pushing out the production frontier as opposed to states that are primarily in the process of 'catching-up.'     

POLLUTION ABATEMENT EXPENDITURES AND REGIONAL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY*

ABSTRACT. Using a sample of 63 SMSAs for the years 1974, 1978, and 1982 I find weak support for the argument that environmental regulations retard economic activity. Regression analysis of the relationship between per unit total and air pollution abatement expenditures in the manufacturing sector of these SMSAs and manufacturing employment and earnings levels reveals that these associations are negative but that the magnitudes are relatively small. For example, 10 percent higher per unit total pollution abatement costs are associated with, on average, 1064 fewer manufacturing workers (0.17 percent of total regional employment) in Sun Belt SMSAs during 1982.     

LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

The brave new world of services-led growth

Two important trends will strongly influence growth in emerging economies: one is the increasing role of services as drivers displacing manufacturing that has hitherto been the principal engine of growth in advanced and developing economies alike; the second is the parallel rise of trade in services both directly and embodied in products. The paper shows how the competitiveness and profitability of firms is becoming closely linked to the quality and innovativeness of services, and how the bundling of services with manufactures is the key to earning high returns over the longer term. Between 25 and 40 percent of value added in manufacturing is now in the form of services with high-end manufacturing becoming increasingly services-intensive. The future therefore, seems to lie in the cultivation of product-services systems that harness the full potential of manufacturing and associated pre- and post-production services such as design, R&D, marketing, and post-sale maintenance, especially of sophisticated equipment. The policy implications for emerging economies such as Russia, India, and China are manifold; e.g. for workforce skill development; for innovation systems (the nature of innovation and the orientation of R&D); for the contribution of capital to growth in a services-centered economy; for the maximizing of productivity gains from tradable and non-tradable services, which have been productivity laggards in the past; and for the creation of a facilitating institutional environment.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATES: A TWO-DIGIT-LEVEL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1954–1987 state manufacturing employment growth in 19 two-digit industries. Markets were found to be the strongest influence in 18 industries. Labor was the second strongest, followed by a threshold variable. Weaker influences were resources, taxes, and amenities. Regional values for the market, labor, and threshold variables corresponded well with regional employment change in the Manufacturing Belt and all other regions of the U.S.     

Services sector in India: trends,issues, and the way forward

This paper provides an overview of the Indian services sector. It shows that services is the fastest growing sector in India, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (GDP), GDP growth, employment, trade, and investment. India is a major proponent of liberalizing services both in the World Trade Organization and in its bilateral trade agreements. However, there are some concerns. In the recent past, economic growth and growth of the services sector has slowed down. Growth in employment in services has not been commensurate with the share of the sector in GDP. Although India is a major exporter of services, its export competitiveness concentrates in few sectors and a few markets. The paper identifies a number of barriers faced by the services sectors and suggests policy measures which, if implemented, will lead to inclusive growth, increased productivity, generate quality employment, increase trade and investment, and enhance India’s global competitiveness in services.     

Community Unionism in Canada and Labor's (Re)Organization of Space

The extensive restructuring of industrialized economies continues to challenge workers and their unions in the 1990s. Labor unions are trying to remain viable institutions in the face of globalization of economic production, deindustrialization, and technological change. These processes have increasingly challenged workers in traditionally highly unionized sectors of the economy such as manufacturing and resource extraction industries. At the same time, unions have failed to organize large numbers of workers, often young and female, in geographically fragmented workplaces in expanding sectors of the economy such as consumer services and subcontracted goods production. There has been a call for new "spatialized strategies" allowing unions to access these new sectors and spaces and to produce scales of organization compatible with post-industrial capital. One strategy being adopted by the labor movement is coalition building with non-labor community interest groups with common goals in order to shape geographies of production. The experience of two Canadian unions with "community unionism" is discussed as an example of a spatialized strategy still in early development.     

The role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions

The paper studies the role of path-dependence in the resilience of EU regions. Particularly, employing a nonparametric analysis, the paper demonstrates that historical adjustments of EU regions materialized by productivity improvements, primarily in the manufacturing sector and incidentally in the sectors of construction, financial and non-market services, during the period 1995–2008 secured high(er) levels of regional resilience during the economic crisis period 2008–2013. Such a finding provides implications not only for theory but also for policy. Policies aiming at boosting regional productivity and competitiveness, which through a positive regional performance of high growth rates is concealed, a well-structured and robust production restructuring, might affect regional resilience in a way that shields regional economies not only from current imbalances but also from any future downturns.     

Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations

Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously-determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to 'new economic geography' theory. Simulations, involving 178 E.U.regions, show that productivity levels and growth rates are higher in all E.U. regions when the financially assisted (Objective 1) regions have faster output growth. This also reduces inequalities in levels of technology. Allowing the core regions to grow faster has a similar effect of raising productivity growth rates across the E.U., although inequality increases. Thus, the simulations are seen as an attempt to develop a type of 'computable geographical equilibrium' model which, as suggested by Fujita, Krugman, and Venables (1999), is the way theoretical economic geography needs to evolve in order to become a predictive discipline.