Solar cycle variation of ƒoF2

For solar cycle 19 (1954–1964), the 12 monthly mean values of noon-time ƒoF2 at Ahmedabad (23°N, 73°E) show a large hysteresis effect when plotted against sunspot number or against geomagnetic Ap. However, a multiple regression analysis for the dependence of ƒoF2 on solar 2800 MHz flux and geomagnetic Ap, simultaneously, shows a better matching. Thus, long-term predictions need to take into account not just sunspot number but some solar index and geomagnetic index as two key parameters, simultaneously.     

The investigation of long-distance HF propagation on the basis of a chirp sounder

Experimental data on round-the-world HF radio signals near the terminator are given. The critical frequency of the ionospheric waveguide is found to be F_c ∼ 16–17 MHz. At frequencies F < F_c the group delay has a negative dispersion $\text{τ}\text{dot}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>g</mtext>}}\text{= ∂τ/∂F ⋍ −100}$ μs/MHz and $\text{τ}\text{dot}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>g</mtext>}}\text{⋍ 80}$ μs/MHz for frequencies f > f_c. Ray-tracing calculations are carried out. It is found that the low frequency branch of round-the-world signals (F < F_c) is formed mainly by waveguide modes and the high frequency branch (F > F_c) by 0 ricochet and hop modes.Experiments on waveguide modes escaping from the ionospheric channel due to field-aligned scattering by artificial ionospheric turbulence are carried out. The conditions for trapping of radio waves in the ionospheric waveguide are investigated. It is shown that if the gradient of the critical frequency F₀F2 is less than minus 2 × 10⁻² MHz/100 km radio wave trapping takes place in the ionospheric waveguide at frequencies exceeding by 1–2 MHz the maximum observed frequency of the hop mode. The frequency time characteristics of the mode and the geophysical conditions for the effective control of radio waves escaping from the waveguide are defined.     

Recipe for predicting the IMF Bz polarity's change of direction following solar disturbances and at the onset of geomagnetic storms

A three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of solar-disturbance-caused storms (Wu, 1993; Wu et al., 1996a) is used to predict the turning direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. More explicitly, we examine the polarity of B_z caused by solar disturbances on the Sun. Three manifestations of solar disturbances, as studied by previous workers, are examined. Firstly, twenty-nine kilometric Type II events, associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms, are studied within the context of our three-dimensional model. Then, an additional eleven long-duration X-ray events (LDEs) with radio fluxes greater than 100 solar flux units were examined; these events were not associated with interplanetary Type II events but were also associated (Cane, 1985) with geomagnetic storms. Finally, in situ interplanetary phenomena that caused ten large (Dst < −100 nT, the intensification of the storm) geomagnetic storm episodes (Tsurutani et al., 1988) near solar maximum are also studied via the B_z predictions of our 3D MHD model. The accuracy of these B_z turning-direction-predictions is found to be as follows: (1) for the kilometric Type II events, the model's prediction was successful for 26 of the 29 events studied; (2) 10/11 for the LDE events; and (3) 7/9 for the major geomagnetic storm events. The overall prediction accuracy of these three independent data sets is 43/49. Thus, consideration of these three independent data sets strongly suggests that the recipe proposed by the basic 3D MHD model may be valid for a zero-th order prediction scheme.