THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION FROM A LONG‐TERM PERSPECTIVE (1900–2000)*

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the evolution of city size distribution in the United States throughout the twentieth century. It tests the validity of two empirical regularities studied in urban economics: Zipf's law (the rank‐size rule), and Gibrat's law, or the law of proportionate growth. The main contribution of this work is the use of a new database with information on all the cities (understood as incorporated places), without size restrictions. Our results enable us to confirm that Gibrat's law holds (weakly), and that Zipf's law holds only if the sample is sufficiently restricted at the top, not for a larger sample.     

La métropolisation à l’aune de la ‘loi’ taille/rang : Le cas Canadien, 1971–2001

Metropolization and the rank/size ’law‘: the Canadian case, 1971–2001 There is currently considerable interest in the process of metropolization. One of the consequences of this process, observed by numerous researchers, is the slower growth and even decline of small and medium cities. From a theoretical point of view, this process is compatible with endogenous growth theory: metropolitan areas offer economic actors certain key factors (access to information, to global networks, etc.) that smaller cities cannot. Concurrently, however, there is a resurgence of interest in Zipf's law and, more generally, in the stability of urban hierarchies. These two bodies of work appear to be in contradiction. However, using Canadian data from 1971 to 2001, we show that whilst metropolization is indeed occurring, this is not necessarily incompatible with a regular urban hierarchy. Indeed, if it is assumed that Zipf's rank‐size rule applies to urban systems in stable socio‐economic contexts, and that this regularity can be disrupted by fundamental social and economic changes, then the current wave of metropolization can be interpreted as a re‐ordering of cities in the face of the major social and economic changes of the 1980s and 1990s, which may eventually lead to a new equilibrium compatible with Zipf's law.     

Population,light, and the size distribution of cities

We provide new insights on the city size distribution of countries around the world. Using more than 10,000 cities delineated via geospatial data and a globally consistent city identification scheme, we investigate distributional shapes in all countries. In terms of population, we find that Zipf's law holds for many, but not all, countries. Contrasting the distribution of population with the distribution of economic activity, measured by nighttime lights, across cities we shed light on the globally variant magnitude of agglomeration economies. Deviations from Zipf's law are to a large extent driven by an undue concentration in the largest cities. They benefit from agglomeration effects which seem to work through area rather than through density. Examining the cross‐country heterogeneity in the city size distribution, our model selection approach suggests that historical factors play an important role, in line with the time of development hypothesis.     

OLS ESTIMATION AND THE t TEST REVISITED IN RANK‐SIZE RULE REGRESSION*

ABSTRACT The rank‐size rule and Zipf's law for city sizes have been traditionally examined by means of OLS estimation and the t test. This paper studies the accurate and approximate properties of the OLS estimator and obtains the distribution of the t statistic under the assumption of Zipf's law (i.e., Pareto distribution). Indeed, we show that the t statistic explodes asymptotically even under the null, indicating that a mechanical application of the t test yields a serious type I error. To overcome this problem, critical regions of the t test are constructed to test the Zipf's law. Using these corrected critical regions, we can conclude that our results are in favor of the Zipf's law for many more countries than in the previous researches such as Rosen and Resnick (1980) or Soo (2005) . By using the same database as that used in Soo (2005) , we demonstrate that the Zipf law is rejected for only one of 24 countries under our test whereas it is rejected for 23 of 24 countries under the usual t test. We also propose a more efficient estimation procedure and provide empirical applications of the theory for some countries.     

The Old and the New: Qualifying City Systems in the World with Classical Models and New Data

Zipf's rank‐size rule, lognormal distribution, and Gibrat's urban growth models are considered as summarizing fundamental properties of systems of cities. In this article, they are used as statistical benchmarks for comparing the shapes of urban hierarchies and evolutionary trends of seven systems of cities in the world including BRICS, Europe, and United States. In order to provide conclusions that avoid the pitfalls of too small samples or uncontrolled urban definitions, these models are tested on some 20,000 urban units whose geographically significant delineations were harmonized in each country over 50 years between 1960 and 2010. As a result, if the models appear not always statistically valid, their usefulness is confirmed since the observed deviations from empirical data remain limited and can often be interpreted from the geohistorical context of urbanism proper to each world region. Moreover, the article provides new free software which authorizes the reproducibility of our experiments with our data bases as well as with complementary data.     

City Size Distribution Analyses Based on the Concept of Entropy Competition

The present work pursues theoretical and empirical objectives. With regards to the former, it is demonstrated that the natural tendency to uniformity of both the probability distribution of a city to have a certain number of inhabitants and that of a person to reside in a town of a given number of citizens leads to a competition between their information entropies, which provides the power law distribution as the most probable one for city size. It is also shown that Zipf's law reflects the significant control of the existence of interconnections between cities on the self-organization of their size. With regards to the empirical objectives, based on population data of European countries and Italian municipalities, the theoretical approach proposed is validated. At the Italian scale, city distribution is shown to be a power law for cities above 10,000 inhabitants. In the 20 Italian regions, the breakpoint in the distribution is generally lower. Finally, the geographical control on city distribution is discussed based on the results achieved in some regions.     

风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟

幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序-规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明：①即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性; ②现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。     

Concentrated Urban Poverty: The Case of Izmir Inner Area,Turkey

In Turkey, poverty has been a main subject of debates since 1960s. It used to be a serious problem for both rural areas and the big cities that gained migration. In Turkey and world-wide since the 1980s, however, there have been more research interests in the concentrated urban poverty, especially along with the increase in levels of impoverishment around the world. With the help of a case study in Izmir (Turkey), this paper aims to examine the process of concentrated urban poverty from different points of view in the literature. This is a case study developed at the peripheries of the traditional city centre—or inner areas—of the city of Izmir, Turkey. The paper, first, discusses the parameters of concentrated poverty according to the literature. Then it introduces the study findings of the author, which point out the macro-scale, micro-scale and ecological dynamics that are important in the development of concentrated urban poverty. The macro-scale dynamics suggest that poverty in inner areas of the city are related to the unbalanced development trends within the country, such as the overgrowth of metropolitan cities, economic restructuring processes, migration trends and the development of informal economy. The ecological dynamics address to the housing and job location preferences and invasion-succession processes in the city, which emphasize that socio-economic characteristics of inner areas of the city are different from those of other city parts. Micro-scale dynamics are related to poors' ability of developing solidarity relations among themselves, which is also related to the spatial characteristics of inner areas of the city, according to this study's findings.     

Manufacturing and Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: A Spatial Econometric View of Kaldor's Laws

In this paper, the regional economic growth process of Turkey during the period 1990–2000 is analysed within the context of Kaldor's laws. The validity of Kaldor's three growth laws is empirically tested by spatial econometric methods as well as traditional econometric method. The empirical results reported in this paper demonstrate the validity of the laws for Turkey over the period under discussion. In testing the first law, spatial dependence is detected. The presence of spatial dependence indicates that the growth of neighbouring regions (and indirectly, the growth of their manufacturing sectors) has an effect on the growth of a region. All the empirical findings suggest that manufacturing has a key role in regional economic growth.     

Reforms,Globalization, and Urban Growth in China: The Case of Hangzhou

Chinese cities have experienced unprecedented growth and restructuring during the reform period. This study by two geographers examines the rapid growth of urban population in the relatively typical large city of Hangzhou (one of China's historical capitals), and investigates underlying factors by highlighting the significance of reforms and globalization in the growth of Chinese cities. The authors also discuss problems that Hangzhou (currently with ca. 4 million inhabitants) faces in coping with rapid urban growth and restructuring. They argue that "control" and "management" approaches to urban growth have limitations in China's transitional cities, and that the gradual process of reform is incompatible with the nature of urban planning in China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, O20, R23. 4 figures, 44 references.     

Gibrat Revisited: An Urban Growth Model Incorporating Spatial Interaction and Innovation Cycles. 再评吉尔布瑞特：顾及空间相互作用和创新周期的城市增长模型

We designed a geographical model for simulating the distribution of urban growth in systems of cities. The model incorporates the hierarchical and spatial diffusion of innovation cycles through gravitational interactions within a set of cities. Using theoretical simulations, we demonstrate that this model is able to reproduce the observed properties of urban systems for the log‐normal distribution of city sizes as well as the observed distribution of growth rates. Our experimentation was performed on a large harmonized historical database that includes a few hundred French urban agglomerations between 1831 and 1999 (Pumain‐INED database). Both spatial interaction and innovation cycles are necessary ingredients to explain the evolution of urban hierarchies. We suggest that Gibrat's generic stochastic growth model based on independent entities should be replaced by a more relevant model of spatially and temporally interdependent geographical entities.     

A New Approach to Analyzing Historical Urban Growth of Ottoman Cities: Manisa Case Study

Abstract

The physical growth of cities is usually used to define the main direction of a city's development. This definition is key to understanding the city's current state and to plan for the future. Many urban planners agree that master plans should include historical urban growth and aim to specify the effective factors driving urban growth. However, defining urban boundaries and historical urban areas is a difficult task. The lack of satellite images, air photos, and real maps to use as base maps for historical urban studies is a problem that a researcher may face when determining patterns of urban development or conducting other analyses. In this article, the authors examine historical changes of the urban boundaries of the Ottoman city of Manisa. They analyze the physical growth of this large city by using the historical buildings (mosques, masjids, madrasas, baths, caravansary, and others) as markers.     

Distinctive patterns of industrial urbanisation in modern Tokyo,c. 1880–1930

Industrial growth in Japan's largest cities has followed patterns that are distinctive, and are significantly different from those that have been adduced in the recent literature on North America. This paper focuses on Tokyo, and in particular its north-eastern part, in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It argues that a process of ‘industrial urbanisation’ occurred in Japan's capital city, a process that was shaped by the existence of a large proto-industrial base and sophisticated consumer economy and characterised by dynamic but disorderly growth in factories largely supplying consumer goods to the urban market. The paper reviews the disparate, not to say confused, nature of industrial growth in Tokyo, noting the variety in factory size and products as well as production methods. Central to the argument of this paper is that industrialisation preceded attempts at urban planning and that the processes of industrialisation and urbanisation occurred concurrently, laying the base thereby for the large mixed-function districts that became a common feature of Japanese cities.     

Not Only Helpless but also Hopeless: Changing Dynamics of Urban Poverty in Turkey,the Case of Sultanbeyli,Istanbul

This paper is an attempt to understand the changing characteristics of urban poverty in Turkey since 1980. First, it analyses how the urban poor in Turkey had adopted aggressive survival strategies by strengthening their solidarity networks on religious, ethnic and cultural bases until the 2000s. Then it sheds light on how those networks have dissolved later on thanks to a set of internal and external factors and concludes that Turkey now faces deepening poverty levels and engendering new forms and dynamics of poverty. This paper is based on the Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul, a district almost entirely composed of unauthorized houses whose population grew at an unprecedented rate after 1980; and it is a perfect case for the study of issues relating to migration, urbanization and poverty in Turkish cities.     

Urban Restructuring of Istanbul

After 1980s, the major cities of Turkey have experienced urban transformation process following the changes in the international trade policy and the impact of globalization. Istanbul took the highest amount of share from these transformation processes as being the most important economic, cultural and tourism centre and the most integrated centre to the world economy of the country. This paper describes Istanbul's historical development, investigates demographic profile and spatial distribution of employment and illustrates multi-centre development of the city. Decentralization of population and jobs illustrate the multi-centre development. Multi-centre development contributes to sustainable urban development which provides efficient energy use and prevents pollution. Istanbul having a long history, large population and being in a very strategic location between Asia and Europe greatly effected from globalization which is reflected in its transformation of urban structure and increased land values and thus offered great opportunities for the real estate investors. The role of Istanbul within the world hierarchy of cities is suggested for further research.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN PLACES IN THE KARA KUM

The development of mineral resources in the Kara Kum desert and irrigation projects along the Kara Kum Canal have fostered the growth of urban population in Turkmenia at a more rapid rate than rural population. In general, established cities in the republic tend to grow more slowly than some of the new workers' settlements established on the basis of gas extraction and other mineral developments. The urban places of Turkmenia are classified by size classes, functional types and growth rates.     

CONTEMPORARY URBANIZATION AND AN OPTIMAL SIZE FOR SOVIET CITIES

Three Leningrad geographers use a recent book by Yu. L. Pivovarov of Moscow as a point of departure to focus on two issues relating to urbanization in the Soviet Union: (1) the nature of the urbanization process; (2) optimal city size. The authors challenge Pivovarov's view that urbanization is a relatively independent socio-historical process in which places evolve on their own from lower forms to higher forms of settlement. They contend that urbanization is closely related to the characteristics of a given socio-economic system and that, in the Soviet Union, it involves not only city growth per se, but the relationship between urban and rural settlement and the penetration of urban life styles into the countryside. On the controversy surrounding optimal size, the writers say that the issue is not to find the ideal size for cities in general, but to set desirable limits for cities of different functional types and, most important, to insure that the infrastructure of cities keeps pace with industrial potential. If industrial development moves far ahead of infrastructure, the authors argue, it is desirable to constrain further growth, especially by keeping out industries that tend to have an agglomerative effect in attracting other industries. Once infrastructure catches up with industrial development, the constraints can be eased and the economies of size inherent in large cities can again come into play.     

Zones of Influence of Middle-Size Cities,Their Boundaries and Passenger Flows

A modified gravity model is used to describe the flows of commuters between a central city and concentric zones around it. A multiplier-type model of a central-place system (after Christaller) is then used to calculate the number of residents for service centers at each level of the hierarchy within the system. The rank-size rule (Zipf's formula) is also considered as a criterion of a true system of urban places. Results are presented for the urban network of the Ukraine.     

An Empirical Enquiry into the Impact of Urban Planning Policy on Urban Growth

Recent research has stressed the need to evaluate the economic implications of urban planning policy. In this article, we present empirical evidence on the impact of this policy on the population growth of towns and cities. A simple theoretical model serves to highlight the mechanisms whereby this policy may affect urban growth. The model yields a reduced-form equation which we estimate for the towns and cities of Andalusia (Spain). The empirical model strongly supports the claim that urban planning policy considerably affects urban growth and thus, the distribution of population across space. Our results suggest that urban planning policy is contributing to the reduction of diseconomies of agglomeration in larger cities. On the negative side, we find that urban plans are subject to obsolescence, which slows down growth.     

LGBTTs of Turkey between the east and the west – the city and the world through their eyes in the case of Izmir

The profession of city planning in Turkey does not consider groups such as LGBTTs (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Transvestite (Cross-dressing)). This study aimed to draw attention to the need for Turkish city planning to consider LGBTT people by presenting the results of a survey conducted in Izmir, one of the leading cities in Turkey. The study examines the reasons that LGBTTs, as ordinary individuals in society, become closeted in the urban sphere and how city planning can overcome this challenging problem of a Muslim country that is between the East and the West and is a European Union (EU) nominee. To examine this delicate issue that has not previously been considered in urban/rural planning studies in Turkey, the main discussion first elaborates the nationwide conception of and attitude towards LGBTTs and a wide range of social and economic variables to assess the quality of LGBTTs’ urban living. Then, based on results of the survey, this study attempts to formulate how an inclusive city can be planned for all groups, including LGBTTs. The scope of this study covers the legal and social status of LGBTTs in Turkey, the overall profile of LGBTT survey respondents, these respondents’ place in Izmir and the specific characteristics of an LGBTT-inclusive city. The unique contribution of this study is that it is the first to examine LGBTT individuals’ demands from the city on the basis of their different socioeconomic profiles.