RISK FACTORS IN THE RAPIDLY RISING INCIDENCE OF DIVORCE IN KOREA

For just over a decade between 1990 and 2003, the crude divorce rate tripled from 1.1 to 3.5 in Korea. Using the combined data from two nationally representative surveys of women conducted in 1997 and 2002, this study examines the risk factors of divorce and attempts to provide insights into the rising divorce rate in Korea. The findings show that the period effects on the probability of divorce remain unexplained after taking into account several risk factors. This may suggest societal-level transformations in normative regimes regarding divorce, which seem to have accelerated after the economic recession in the late 1990s. Independent of period effects, women's employment in white-collar occupations and declining fertility increase the risk of divorce, whereas women's unpaid work in the family business and college education lower the risk of divorce. Divorce rates are highest in the middle stage of marital duration in Korea.     

Compared to What? Changes in Interest Group Resources and the Proposal and Adoption of State Teacher Policy

What is the relationship between changes in interest group resources and the proposal and adoption of state policy? Using a dataset of proposed and enacted teacher policies across five legislative cycles in all 50 states and measures of interest group relative and absolute resource strength, I estimate a series of within-state fixed effects models that gain identification from changes in interest group resources and teacher policy over time. I find that legislatures propose more unfavorable and fewer favorable policies toward teachers' unions in states where teachers' union opposition interest groups are expending more election (but not lobbying) resources over time. Further, I find that more unfavorable and fewer favorable policies are adopted in states where teachers' union opposition groups are growing in election resource strength. Expanding on prior empirical work, this study suggests that interest group resources matter for policy change and highlights the importance of capturing interest group resource dynamics over time.     

Medicaid Expansion and the Political Fate of the Governors Who Support It

We provide evidence regarding potential policy feedback effects of healthcare reform by estimating the effect of Medicaid expansion on public support for the state actor most closely associated with responsibility for the expansion decision—the governor. The discretion granted to state governments concerning Medicaid expansion has created the potential for significant variation in mass feedback effects across the states. We are particularly interested in how these effects are influenced by the emerging racial polarization over healthcare policy, and how this may lead to different types of feedback effects that align with partisan, ideological, and racial cleavages. We estimate the impact of Medicaid expansion on gubernatorial approval, utilizing five waves of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (2008–16). We find that on average, expansion led to a modest, yet statistically significant increase in gubernatorial approval. However, there is important variation both within and across states in the effect of expansion. Specifically, we find that governors were more likely to be rewarded for expansion by those who supported President Obama, and those who resided in states where the Medicaid recipient population is more likely to be white.     

A Potential Case of Social Bankruptcy: States' AFDC Payments and Their Teen Birth Rates

Based on a pooled time series analysis that covers a 30-year period at five different time points—1960, 1970, 1980, 1985, and 1990—this research examines the relationship between states' Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) payments and teen birth rates. Drawing on rational choice theories, we expected the effects of states' AFDC payments on their teen birth rates to be positive, taking into account states' divorce rates, population change rates, unemployment rates, racial composition, and poverty rates. The effects of states'AFDC payments were significant in a negative direction in Model 1, a random effects model; they also were significant in a negative direction in Model 2 when we controlled for the effects of year; however, when we controlled for the effects of year and state in Model 3, they were not significant. The findings do not support assumptions regarding the incentive effects of welfare that underlie rational choice theories in states where teen birth rates are higher. If anything, teen birth rates are higher in states where AFDC payments are lower. Implications for policy and further research are discussed in relation to the positive effects of states' poverty and population change rates on the state teen birth rate problem.     

Ethnic return migration and the nation‐state: encouraging the diaspora to return ‘home’

ABSTRACT. Countries of immigration are generally faced with a dilemma: they wish to accept immigrants for economic purposes, but also to restrict immigration for ethnonational reasons. This is especially true in ethnic nation‐states, where immigration is seen as a threat to ethnonational unity more than in civic nation‐states. However, in recent decades, various ethnic nation‐states have adopted immigration policies that have encouraged their diasporic descendants born and raised abroad to return to their ethnic homeland. Ethnic return migration apparently solves the immigration dilemma by providing ethnic nation‐states with a much‐needed unskilled labour force without causing ethnonational disruption because the immigrants are co‐ethnic descendants. After comparing ethnic return migration policies in European and East Asian countries, this article analyses the development of such policies in Japan and their eventual failure to solve the country's immigration dilemma. As a result, Japan (and other ethnic nation‐states) have imposed restrictions on ethnic return migration.     

PERSPECTIVES ON THE SAGEBRUSH REBELLION

The Sagebrush Rebellion began in the late 1970s with the objective of transferring various categories of federally owned lands to the states. The movement was centered in western “public lands” states, where nearly half the total land area is in federal ownership. Within a relatively short period of time this objective was changed to one of “privatizing” federal lands, of selling these land into private ownership. While the Sagebrush Rebellion has been highly political in its activities, the movement can be viewed in the perspective of historical land disposition policies in the U.S. These policies were changed near the turn of the century from alienating public lands into private ownership to their retention and management by the federal government. Confusion over the economics of building a free enterprise system based on private property rights, and the costs associated with building such as system, appear to have been major factors in changing land policies. Two important aras in which this occurred were the Homestead Act of 1862 and timber. The provisions of the Homestead Act imposed heavy costs on settlers, and these costs caused a reaction against the economic system that was being built.     

Decomposing the crude divorce rate in five countries: Singapore,Taiwan, South Korea,the UK,and Australia

Over the past few decades, the level of divorce, measured by the crude divorce rate (CDR), has increased dramatically in both the East and the West, but has recently appeared to fall or level off in some countries. To investigate whether the recent decline or stabilisation of the CDRs reflects the real trends in divorce risk, a decomposition analysis was conducted on the changes in the CDRs over the past 20 years on two western and three East Asian countries, namely, the UK, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. The following is observed: the decline in the CDRs of the UK and Australia in the 1990s, and of Taiwan and Korea in the 2000s, was mainly due to shrinkage in the proportion of the married population rather than any reduction in divorce risk; only Australia experienced a genuine reduction in divorce risk between 2001 and 2011; and the continuous increase of Singapore’s divorce level between 1990 and 2010 may be is an unintentional effect of the government’s marriage promotion policies. The shift in the population age structure, and more importantly, the drastic decline in marriage, has seriously distorted the CDRs, making them unreliable indicators for monitoring divorce trends.     

城市旅游与城市发展的动态模式探讨

旅游发展与城市发展密不可分,城市发展与旅游发展是处于动态的发展之中,既相互促进、又相互制约,因此在不同的地域和城市发展阶段,城市发展和城市旅游发展的行为表现出非线性特征和多种模式。本研究总结了和研究了旅游城市化、都市城市旅游、环城游憩带、旅游与城市转型、旅游城镇的衰落等城市旅游与城市发展的动态模式,并建立城市旅游与发展的一般反馈模型,找出导致城市发展和城市旅游发展非线性特征的内部结构。研究表明驱动城市旅游增长的正反馈结构力量不够大,而旅游和城市增长引发的负反馈机制在短期内就会蓄积力量,限制城市旅游的进一步增长。城市旅游政策只有预见并避免这些限制性结构,同时加强正反馈才能达到长期有效的目标。     

THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF CHILD CARE: THE CASE OF THE CITY OF WATERLOO, ONTARIO*

The intention of this paper is to stimulate research on the demand and supply of child care services, an issue that has been largely neglected by geographers, although many of the problems involved lend themselves to geographical analysis. In addition, as the female labour force participation rate, the divorce rate, and the incidence of lone-parent families increase, so do the need for and importance of child care. We review the types of child care available in North America and provide statistics to demonstrate that the supply of child care falls short of demand. Furthermore, for the city of Waterloo, Ontario, through the use of 1981 and 1986 Census data we demonstrate that not only is the supply of licensed day care spaces insufficient to meet the demand, but also it is spatially arranged in a suboptimal way. Through population projections and net migration analyses we demonstrate that the demand for child care spaces in the near future is more likely to intensify in the periphery of the city, where the current supply is nonexistent. We thus argue that locational criteria should play a prominent role in the practice of licensing new day care centres. Cet article vise à encourager la recherche sur I'offre et la demande de services de garderie. Ce sujet a été largement négligé par les géographes měme si beaucoup des pro-blèmes rencontrés sont liés à des facteurs géographiques. De plus, la participation des femmes au marché du travail augmentant ainsi que le taux de divorce et le nombre de families monoparentales, les garderies deviennent de plus en plus nécessaires et importantes. Nous passons en revue les différents types de garderies qu'il est possible de trouver en Amérique du Nord et nous présentons des statistiques démontrant que le nombre actuel de garderies ne satisfait pas la demande. D'autre part, à I'aide des données du recensement canadien de 1981 et 1986 pour la ville de Waterloo, Ontario, nous prouvons que non seulement le nombre de places dans les garderies licenciées est insuffisant mais aussi que leur location géographique n'est pas optimale. À I'aide des études sur la population future et la migration nette, nous démontrons que la demande de garderies augmentera vraisemblablement à la périphérie de la ville où les garderies sont actuellement inexistantes. Par conséquent, nous estimons que le critère de localisation doit jouer un rǒle prédominant dans I'octroi des permis d'établissement de nouvelles garderies.     

A Behavioral Theory of Policy Feedback in Tobacco Control: Evidence From a Difference‐In‐Difference‐In‐Difference Study

Public policy scholars argue that in highly tangible policies, such as tobacco control, the public learns from the direct experience of the beneficial effects of the policy. Empirical evidence supports this argument, suggesting that in the United States the introduction of tobacco control measures makes people more inclined to further regulation. By relying on a set of cases which allows testing the effects of the introduction of tobacco control measures across European countries on a series of relevant variables, this study confirms that the introduction of tobacco control measures makes the public more inclined to further regulation. Yet, when the effects of these policies are disaggregated between smokers and nonsmokers, results show that these positive effects are driven by smokers. This puzzle suggests that different effects than mass attitudinal policy feedback effects, driven by learning from direct experience, might explain the positive reaction to tobacco control. This study puts forward a behavioral theory of policy feedback, which suggests that smokers react positively to the introduction of tobacco control measures because they see these measures as commitment devices, which can help them quit smoking. Evidence for this argument is found by demonstrating that the introduction of tobacco control measures increases smokers’ welfare.     

Policy Feedback and the Politics of the Affordable Care Act

There is a large body of literature devoted to how “policies create politics” and how feedback effects from existing policy legacies shape potential reforms in a particular area. Although much of this literature focuses on self‐reinforcing feedback effects that increase support for existing policies over time, Kent Weaver and his colleagues have recently drawn our attention to self‐undermining effects that can gradually weaken support for such policies. The following contribution explores both self‐reinforcing and self‐undermining policy feedback in relationship to the Affordable Care Act, the most important health‐care reform enacted in the United States since the mid‐1960s. More specifically, the paper draws on the concept of policy feedback to reflect on the political fate of the ACA since its adoption in 2010. We argue that, due in part to its sheer complexity and fragmentation, the ACA generates both self‐reinforcing and self‐undermining feedback effects that, depending of the aspect of the legislation at hand, can either facilitate or impede conservative retrenchment and restructuring. Simultaneously, through a discussion of partisan effects that shape Republican behavior in Congress, we acknowledge the limits of policy feedback in the explanation of policy stability and change.     

Buzz Kill: State Adoption of DUI Interlock Laws, 2005–11

Most states have adopted significant measures to reduce the incidence of driving under the influence (DUI) but a DUI death occurs about every 53 minutes; a significant portion of these accidents are the result of recidivist DUI drivers. A relatively new and novel way states can reduce DUI deaths from repeat offenders is to require offenders to install an interlock device on their vehicle, but not all states have adopted this measure. We explore whether the Policy Typology and Policy Diffusion Frameworks can help us understand the politics behind why some states have adopted interlock policies while others have not. Employing over‐time data from the American states our results suggest that the adoption of interlock laws is best explained by internal factors to the state and the adoption of interlock laws by neighboring states. In addition, the adoption of interlock laws is a form of incremental policymaking—states with existing DUI laws are more likely to adopt interlock policies. We conclude that interlock policies diffuse in a manner similar to other regulatory policies and that interlock policies should be categorized as protective regulatory policies rather than social regulatory policies.     

THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS. AGGREGATE INFORMATION*

ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time‐series methods for short‐run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state‐level data set from 1960–2001. We test the out‐of‐sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state‐level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in‐sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a “greener” median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions.     

Extracting Value from the City: Neoliberalism and Urban Redevelopment

How do states make the built environment more flexible and responsive to the investment criteria of real estate capital? Spatial policies, such as urban renewal funding for slum clearance or contemporary financial incentives, depend on discursive practices that stigmatize properties targeted for demolition and redevelopment. These policies and practices have become increasingly neoliberalized. They have further distanced themselves from those “long turnover” parts of the city where redevelopment needs are great but where the probability of private investment and value extraction is slight. They have become more entwined in global financial markets seeking short–term returns from subsidized property investments. They have shifted their emphasis from compromised use values (embodied in the paternalistic notion of “blight”) to diminished exchange values (embodied in the notion of “obsolescence”). I argue that obsolescence has become a neoliberal alibi for creative destruction and, therefore, an important component in contemporary processes of spatialized capital accumulation.     

Policy Feedback Effects on Mass Publics: A Quantitative Review

There has been an impressive stride in the research on policy feedback effects on mass publics over recent years. However, we lack systematic evidence on how large such policy feedback effects are in the literature. This article provides a review of 65 published studies and quantifies the findings and key themes in the policy feedback literature. The results show a great degree of heterogeneity in the domains and outcomes being studied and in the effects of policies on the public. In line with the findings from narrative reviews, feedback effects are greater for outcomes related to political participation and engagement. Last, the review sheds light on important theoretical and methodological limitations to be addressed in future research.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

高新技术产业布局特征分析

影响高新技术产业布局的区位因子主要是知识、技术、资金和信息。地方政府对高新技术产业的扶持因素和对外开放条件对高新技术产业区位选择的影响越来越大。高新技术产业区位具有智力密集、良好的外部发展条件、对外开放度高和交通方便、生产和生活环境质量相对较高、位于大中城市等特征。高新技术产业布局存在着区域集聚与扩散两种过程。     

Shifting Winds: Explaining Variation in State Policies to Promote Small‐Scale Wind Energy

States have increasingly taken leading roles in U.S. environmental policymaking over the past two decades. As laboratories of democracy, states have developed different levels and mixes of policies to address climate change, nonpoint source pollution, alternative energy, and other challenging environmental issues. Policy scholars have sought to explain variation in state environmental policy through two primary theoretical lenses: internal determinants and regional diffusion. While our understanding of state environmental policy adoption has grown to identify which variables are most important, less is known about how these variables interact in particular states to influence policy adoption. This study examines the interactions of variables from both theories to explain how state policies for small‐scale wind energy promotion were adopted in three U.S. states. Our results highlight the nuanced role of citizen ideology, which may be important in contexts at either end of the ideological spectrum but less important in the middle—where economic development is more critical. Results also indicate that interstate competition may be over environmental as well as economic leadership. Interestingly, strength of the wind resource is not necessarily correlated with policy adoption for small‐scale wind energy promotion.