Tracking ‘Snowbirds’ in Australia: Winter Sun Seekers in Far North Queensland

Seasonal migration is gaining acceptance as a retirement form among Canadians and Americans. These so-called snowbirds spend their winters in the U.S. Sunbelt as residents of seasonal recreational communities. The three defining qualities of life in snowbird communities are very high levels of recreation activity, social interaction and geographic mobility. This paper explores ‘snowbirding’ in Australia and draws comparisons with North America. The focus is on retirees staying in caravan parks in far north Queensland during the winter of 1995 when 306 couples were interviewed. As expected, many similarities exist between North American and Australian ‘snowbirding’. However, Australian levels of social interaction are appreciably lower, while levels of geographical mobility are higher.     

Partisan politics and the public sphere: The civil war north

The Civil War North presents an interesting case study of the relationship between a highly politicized public sphere and partisan electoral politics. Although the two‐party system remained intact throughout the war, the concept and practice of partisanship was challenged by the social experience of Northerners who ‘acted politically’ when they took part in the war effort. The creation of a mass citizen army and the mobilization of women and men on the home front meant that parties lost their function as the crucial mediating channel between citizen and government. The more that politics mattered, the less partisanship seemed to be relevant. The war exposed the latent non‐partisan political energies of Northern society. These conclusions bolster the arguments of those scholars who, questioning whether partisanship was as deep or as widespread as previously supposed, have begun to suggest that the ‘party period paradigm’ does not capture the entirety of the nineteenth‐century political experience.     

U.S. Census Bureau Area Measurements for Sub-County Areas and Clarence Batschelet’s U.S. Population Density Map of 1942

ABSTRACT

During the Second World War, the U.S. Bureau of the Census published a novel population density map for the U.S. that used minor civil divisions as its areal basis. Prior to that time, the national-level area measurements required to calculate densities for such sub-county units were unavailable. The data that enabled the production of the map published in 1942 were collected by clerical workers who were employed as part of a joint project between the Census Bureau and the Works Progress Administration. The area measurements, made using planimeters, were used with 1940 Census of Population data to compute densities that are represented on the map using a choropleth technique.     

Teaching Canadian Literature

Abstract

Canada and the United States are two democracies on the North American continent sharing a common border, common British heritage, and for the most part a common language. At the same time, the two political systems abound with structural differences. Canadians, unlike voters in the U.S., cannot split their votes among various parties and candidates, and the single house Parliamentary system with tight party discipline renders an individual back-bench MP relatively powerless. The questions addressed by this article concern similarities and differences of Canadian and U.S. urban voters as they make electoral selections in these similar cultures and dissimilar, yet democratic, political systems. First, do social factors such as class, ethnicity, and religion provide similar bases for cleavage in Canada and the U.S.? Canadian society supposedly has a more easily defined class structure than the U.S. Does this difference carry over into the area of electoral choice? Do ethnicity and religion, as reported, differentiate party support in both countries? Second, individual factors such as the voter's party identification and impression of the party leaders (or presidential candidates) have been shown in the U.S. to be of dominant importance in predicting an individual's vote. What is the relative importance of these factors in determining voting choice in the two countries? The three-party Canadian context renders difficult any clear-cut comparisons to the two-party U.S., but useful avenues of speculation emerge. The NDP has a working-class base, but cannot attract the poor. Class does not significantly distinguish PC's and Liberals, the dominant parties, and on ethnicity and religion PC and NDP supporters bear a strong resemblance to each other. In the U.S. the expected associations obtain between Democratic vote and working class, Catholic religion, and foreign-born parentage. Party identification and attractiveness of the party leader, long recognized as important influences on voters in the U.S., seem from these data to play a similar role in Canada. Consequently, the individual electoral decision is dominated by more similarities than might be suggested from observing the differences in electoral and decision-making structures. Perhaps culture rather than political structure is dominant (within certain limits) in a voter's electoral decisions.     

Frozen Film and FOSDIC Forms: Restoring the 1960 U.S. Census of Population and Housing

In this article, the authors describe a collaboration of the Minnesota Population Center (MPC), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the National Archives and Records Administration to restore the lost data from the 1960 Census. The data survived on refrigerated microfilm in a cave in Lenexa, Kansas. The MPC is now converting the data to usable form. Once the restored data are processed, the authors intend to develop three new data sources based on the 1960 census. These data will replace the most inadequate sample in the series of public-use census microdata spanning the years from 1850 to 2000, extend the chronological scope of the public census summary files, and provide a powerful new resource for the Census Bureau and its Research Data Centers.     

Linking the 1940 U.S. Census with modern data

Abstract

The U.S. Census Bureau has created a set of linkable census, survey, and administrative records that provides longitudinal data on the American population across the past eight decades. While these files include modern decennial censuses, Census Bureau surveys, and administrative records files from other federal agencies, the long time span is only possible with the addition of the complete count 1940 Census microdata. In this paper, we discuss the development of this linked data infrastructure and provide an overview of the record linkage techniques used. We primarily focus on the techniques used to produce a beta version of a linkable 1940 Census microdata file and discuss the potential to further document and extend the infrastructure.     

Partisan gerrymandering and population instability: Completing the redistricting puzzle

How can partisan mapmakers enact a partisan gerrymander in the presence of risk-averse co-partisan incumbents who wish to keep most of their constituencies intact? Until now the literature on redistricting has focused on how redistricting affects the geography of partisan support, that is, the underlying partisan balance of electoral districts. We posit that this emphasis on partisanship misses half of the story. Partisan mapmakers have another tool at their disposal: the fostering of population instability that may not affect a district's partisan balance. By examining all redistricting plans enacted in 2001–2002, as well as three case studies, we show that partisan mapmakers strategically foster population instability, which poses problems for incumbents in a way that may not be apparent when looking exclusively at the effects of redistricting on partisanship. Our results show how partisan mapmakers simultaneously achieve two goals: enacting an “optimal gerrymander,” which strengthens some opposition-party incumbents, while inducing instability and reducing the personal vote of those same incumbents. We also show that so-called “neutral” redistricting plans are successful in disregarding incumbency. Finally, our results suggest another mechanism that explains why the 2002 congressional elections in the U.S. produced little competition.     

Towards a chequebook democracy? Business,parties and the funding of politics in Italy and the United States

This article seeks to establish to what extent Silvio Berlusconi's entry into electoral politics as leader of Forza Italia signals an ‘Americanization’ of Italian politics. It argues that Italian party democracy is moving in an ‘American’ direction in two ways. First, Italian party organizations are declining, leading to a more candidate-centred type of electoral politics. Second, the decline of parties is enhancing the ability of business to use its financial clout to tailor public policy to its own requirements. However, these trends do not have identical effects in Italy and the United States. This article will also show that this process of ‘Americanization’ interacts with the existing political praxis and institutional framework of Italian politics to produce an outcome which differs from both the traditional Western European model and the American model of party democracy. It will be concluded that this outcome seriously undermines representative democracy in Italy.     

试析当代美国华人参与选举政治的方式

当代美国华人参与选举政治的方式主要有参加选举登记与投票、政治捐款、竞选议员及政府公职和争取政治委任等。本文分析了华人参与美国选举政治的这些重要方式。作者认为,这些参与方式没有优劣和重要与次要之分,都是影响美国政治,为华人争取权益和提升华人形象的手段,它们可以优势互补,相得益彰。     

Whose Approval Matters? Reelection,Constituency Approval,and Senate Support for President George W. Bush

Debate exists concerning the impact of presidential approval on congressional support for the president. One source of this debate is that while theory specifies an electoral connection, suggesting that legislators will be responsive to approval within their reelection constituency, most research employs national approval measures. Lack of constituency-level data has forced studies to use national measures of approval, but in as much as national and district level approval differ, national approval will not provide quality estimates of district opinion on the president. This article uses SurveyUSA data from 2005–2006, which provide state-level estimates for approval as well as breakdowns by partisanship (Democrats, Republicans, Independent). Analysis finds that, with controls, state-level approval has a statistically significant, albeit marginal, impact on senator support for the president. Stronger effects on support are found for approval from the senators’ reelection constituency, defined as voters of the senators’ party. These findings suggest directions for future research.     

Modelling the relationship between tenure and migration in England and Wales

"A rarely utilized source of migration data from the 1981 [U.K.] Census is used to examine the mobility patterns of migrants resident in different [housing] tenures within England and Wales at the regional and county level. A Poisson regression approach is used to compare the effects of distance on migration propensities for those moving into owner-occupied housing, council housing and privately rented housing. The existing literature suggests that migration should be most restricted by distance for council tenants and least restricted for private renters....Local variations in the effects of distance decay on migration for each of the three migrant streams are examined. Both a north-south and a metropolitan non-metropolitan migration divide are clearly evident when migrant flows are disaggregated by tenure at the destination."     

The Italian party system’s three functional arenas after the 2018 election: the tsunami after the earthquake

The aim of this article is to assess to what extent the ‘change’ after the 2018 Italian election can be observed in the electoral, parliamentary and governmental arenas. We use the indicators of party ‘volatility’ and ‘innovation’ to measure the change in each arena. The time span is the period 1948–2018, with a specific focus on the time after the watershed election of 1994. In this respect, we have identified a crucial difference between the 1994 change and that of 2013–18: if 1994 was the single moment of passage from one party system to another, in the 2010s the change did not happen in a single moment. Only after the next election, if volatility and innovation in the three arenas is reduced substantially, could we claim that a new party system has developed, that could be considered the ‘third party system’ of the Italian Republic.     

Gulliver unbound. Possible electoral reforms and the 2008 Italian election: Towards an end to ‘fragmented bipolarity’?

This article considers the systemic effects of the electoral reform approved by the centre-right in December 2005, and the factors that led to the crisis of the Prodi government, highlighting the way in which the issue of electoral reform and the likelihood of an electoral referendum contributed decisively to the breakdown of the fragile coalition maintaining the Prodi government in office. The article then analyses the ‘game’ surrounding possible electoral reforms, examining the interweaving of the preferences and vetoes of the various political actors, showing how these were influenced by the strategic aims of each actor and by the process of re-structuring of the party system. Finally, the new configuration of the political supply as it took shape in the run up to the 2008 general election is analysed, showing how this new format derives from the actors’ strategic adaptation to the electoral rules in force, and how the election may signal the end of a period of Italian politics marked by ‘fragmented bipolarity’.     

A crisis of rights and responsibility: feminist geopolitical perspectives on Latin American refugees and migrants

With the advent of the Trump presidency we are facing the most anti-refugee and immigrant administration in recent U.S. history. This follows on the heels of the Obama era, characterized by record deportations and severe U.S. policies of deterrence towards Latin American refugees and migrants in its own backyard. This aggressive expansion of U.S. Homeland Security migration control included: outsourcing enforcement to Mexico; re-introducing migrant family detention; increasing ‘family unit’ raids; and accelerating immigration court hearings. These strategies of state deterrence and enforcement heightened vulnerability of asylum-seeking women and children from Mexico and Central America to human and legal rights abuses. I employ a feminist geopolitical approach to interrogate the intimate and embodied spaces of migration controls that ground the workings of the state in the normalized, routine, and informal practices of state officials and in the experiences of vulnerable yet resilient women and children refugees. Drawing upon examples from two research projects, informed by personal experience as a volunteer, I critically examine the everyday state practices of U.S./Mexico migration enforcement in three arenas - border security spaces, legal spaces, and carceral spaces. I contend that rather than an ‘immigrant or refugee crisis,’ these restrictive and intimate performances routinely deployed by border and legal bureaucrats reproduce and reinforce the structural and systemic crisis of rights and responsibility we are currently witnessing. Through a feminist ethic of care, social justice, and action, migrant and refugee narratives of everyday restriction may be deployed in resisting rights abuses and fostering responsibility, humanity, and hospitality towards newcomers.     

New Representations of a ‘Misrepresented Bureau’: Reflections on Recent Scholarship on the Freedmen's Bureau

It is hard to deny the central importance of the Freedmen's Bureau to the politics of Reconstruction. Since the 1970s, however, there has been a huge upsurge of interest in the Freedmen's Bureau. This article offers some reflections on the state of the scholarship today, and suggests that what the ‘New Freedmen's Bureau Historiography’ has taught us is that, within the parameters set by the unforgiving dynamics of Reconstruction, Bureau agents, most of them at least, struggled to negotiate the terms of freedom for African Americans. By probing the variations, the tensions, the contradictions in the agency's history, ‘New Freedmen's Bureau Historiography’ has left us with a more complete and detailed picture of the practical workings of Reconstruction on the troubled ground of the postbellum South.     

BAYESIAN SMOOTHING OF RATES IN SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS*

ABSTRACT. An enormous amount of socio-economic and public-health data come as rates (e.g., unemployment, per capita income, mortality rates, census undercount) reported in small geographic areas. The U.S. Census Bureau regularly publishes data series at the county level, although the county is often a small area chosen for administrative convenience rather than by design. The reported rates can be regarded as a noisy representation of the true geographic distribution of rates over the small areas. This article presents a Bayesian statistical method of smoothing raw rates. In order to illustrate the important features of the method, a data set on undercoverage in the 1980 U.S. Census will be used.     

Re-examining a modern classic: does Putnam's Making Democracy Work suffer from spuriousness?

What makes democratic institutions work efficiently? Robert Putnam argued in Making Democracy Work that a mixture of political participation and immersion in associative and social networks in the community, conceptualised as ‘civic community’ or ‘social capital’, is the explanation. Ever since its publication, many questions have arisen about the validity of Putnam's theory. Among the most relevant concerns stands the influence of the Italian Communist Party on Putnam's empirical tests. This paper aims to fill the gap left in the literature by testing Putnam's hypothesis against the political party in the regional government and the PCI's electoral support. Supporting Putnam, this paper finds that variations in the quality of democratic governments in Italy's regions are a function of civic community even after adjusting for the presence of the Italian Communist Party.     

Turnout,preferential voting and vote flows in the E.U. election1

ABSTRACT

This article aims at focusing on four main features of the European elections that were held on 26 May 2019. Firstly, it analyses electoral turnout, both from a diachronic and a geographical point of view. Secondly, it presents electoral data and identifies winners and losers of the vote, not only by comparing 2019 E.U. results to 2014 E.U. results and 2018 political results, but especially focusing on the territorial dimension of electoral dynamics. Thirdly, it discusses flows of vote in five Italian cities (Brescia, Turin, Florence, Naples, Palermo), in order to give a clearer picture of how citizens (potentially) changed their electoral preferences from 2018 to 2019. Fourthly, it focuses on preferential vote, with the aim of distinguishing between parties characterized by ‘micro-personalization’ and ‘macro-personalization’. On many of these aspects, the 2019 European elections in Italy can be understood on the basis of the well-known ‘second-order election theory’. Yet, there are also interesting empirical findings that deviate from this pattern, among which the electoral success of the League – one of the two parties in government at the moment of the elections – merits further attention and can be mostly explained on the basis of government political action. That same electoral success, in addition, represented one of the causes that led to the end of the so-called yellow-green government in August 2019.     

Swings and Roundabouts? Patterns of Voting for the Australian Labor Party at State and Commonwealth Lower House Elections, 1901-96

Federation for Australia in 1901 was closely followed by the rise of the mass party, an organisation with the potential to reduce the regional differentiation that federalism is designed to protect. Loyalty to party can submerge local issues in nationally based partisanship, and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) may have performed precisely this role, particularly if voters have not differentiated between voting for the ALP at state and Commonwealth elections. This article examines the pattern of electoral support for the ALP at state and Commonwealth elections since 1901 and finds that an apparent similarity in long-term voting support masks important variations both within and between states. The potential for mass party loyalty to create uniform voting responses across the federation has been strongly moderated by the diversity inherent in the federal system.     

On the Definition of Conurbation Boundaries

A procedure is proposed for the delimitation of conurbations, a term preferred to urban agglomerations. In the first stage the urbanized zone is demarcated, consisting of the central city and adjoining continuously built-up area. The method of the U. S. Bureau of the Census is recommended with some qualifications. In the second stage, minor civil divisions surrounding the urbanized zone are selected for inclusion in the conurbation, based on a combination of criteria involving nonfarm employment, population density, and evidence of “strong gravitation” to the urbanized zone. Regular travel to work, for shopping, and for recreation is suggested as an indicator of gravitation.