Predicting violence within genocide: A model of elite competition and ethnic segregation from Rwanda

Can we predict when and where violence will likely break out within cases of genocide? I present a theoretical model to help identify areas susceptible and resistant to violence during genocide. The model conceptualizes violence onset as a function of elite competition for control of the state from above and the ethnic segregation of society from below. First, in areas where extremist elite control is weak, violence is delayed or averted because a contest for control between pro-violence elites and anti-violence moderates arises and the competition takes time to resolve. Where control is strong, violence is immediate or early because extremists face little competition and can rapidly deploy the state's coercive resources against targeted groups. Second, in areas where the integration of ethnic groups is high, violence is delayed because it takes time to break existing interethnic bonds and destroy bridging social capital. Cohesive communities resist elite attempts to divide them through interethnic trust and cooperation. I test the model by examining sub-national variation in genocide onset across Rwanda's 145 communes using new data and duration analysis. I additionally explore causal mechanisms by within-case analyses comparing early and late onset in two communes. The findings have implications for international policy makers as they respond to genocides and strategically prioritize limited intervention resources.     

The spatial distribution of population in Spain: An anomaly in European perspective

We exploit the GEOSTAT 2011 population grid with a very high 1 km² resolution to document that Spain presents the lowest density of settlements among European countries. Only a small fraction of the Spanish territory is inhabited, particularly in its southern half, which goes hand in hand with a high degree of population concentration. We uncover through standard regression analysis and spatial regression discontinuity that this anomaly cannot be accounted for by adverse geographic and climatic conditions. The second part of the paper takes a historical perspective on Spain's settlement patterns by showing that the spatial distribution of the population has been very persistent in the last two centuries, and that the abnormally low density of settlements with respect to European neighbors was already visible in the 19th century, which indicates that this phenomenon has not emerged recently as a consequence of the transformations associated with industrialization and tertiarization. Using data on ancient sites, we find that Spain did not feature scarcity of settlements in comparison to other countries in premedieval times, suggesting that its current anomalous settlement pattern has not always existed and is, therefore, not intrinsic to its geography.     

Close-up on renewable resources and armed conflict: The spatial logic of pastoralist violence in northern Kenya

Methods of spatially disaggregated conflict analysis are becoming increasingly popular and open avenues for systematic micro-level research. Especially within the field of environmental security research they bear the promise of a better assessment of environment–conflict linkages at the sub-national level. Yet, this branch of research lacks a thorough theoretical involvement with the spatial logic of armed contests over renewable resources and this hampers the use of highly disaggregated data. To address this shortcoming, the present contribution proposes an actor-centred approach, which allows determining the precise locations of violent events in armed contests over renewable resources. It is developed by analysing the spatial logic of pastoralist violence in northern Kenya, a frequently cited example of scarcity-related struggle over renewable resources. The analysis demonstrates that pastoralist violence in northern Kenya has frequently occurred close to well sites and in locations of higher rainfall, which offer favourable conditions for livestock raiding. These results lend support to narratives of pastoralist violence, which emphasise the strategic use of violence with regard to the ecological opportunities and constraints of African rangelands. They also highlight more generally that conflict locations reveal more about the strategic choices made by armed groups in a given conflict situation than about the ultimate causes of their struggle. This calls for a more conscious use of disaggregated data in environmental security research.     

'Bold Walk and Breakings': Women's spatial confidence versus fear of violence

This article explores women's fear of urban violence from a spatial perspective. It is based on qualitative data collected in Finland. It shows first that women do not have to be fearful. Boldness is associated with freedom, equality, and a sense of control over, and possession of space. Secondly, the article considers how and why fear of violence undermines some women's confidence, restricting their access to, and activity within, public space. Fear of violence is a sensitive indicator of gendered but complex power relations which constitute society and space. Women's fear is generally regarded as 'normal' and their boldness thought to be risky: the conceptualisation of women as victims is unintentionally reproduced. However, a more critical view might regard fear as socially constructed and see how it is actually possible for women to be confident and take possession of space.     

The violence of space and spaces of violence: Peace as violence in unequal and divided spaces

Peace is a spatio-social and temporal experience, dependent on a number of variables that are influenced by positionality and privilege. Often “peaceful” spaces are inherently violent due to racism, sexism, classism, ableism, transphobia, homophobia, and agism among other forms of oppression. This article presents the conceptualisation of the violence of space, as a means by which inequalities are maintained spatially and socially, and demonstrates how in Cape Town, South Africa this exacerbates displacement and reinforces the persistence of violence in townships and informal settlements or temporal and physical spaces of violence. Empirically, through thematic analysis I evidence the conceptualisation of peace without justice as a form of violence through participant narratives of movement and use of space in the post-apartheid city. Using a spatial lens, I demonstrate how these inequalities perpetuate violence and observe the work still to be done in addressing maintained transgenerational inequalities. I utilise interviews with a range of actors working across different city spaces to demonstrate the violence of maintained divides with a specific focus on materialisations of violence, both structural and direct violence, in the areas of housing and transport. In this paper I also highlight organisation and resistance to inequalities, while overall, arguing that the product of the violence of space and spaces of violence is a violent peace whereby engineered poverty and systemic inequalities are maintained.     

The hidden comparison: Modern Italy in German perspectives

The author reviews German‐language studies on Italian history since Unification and argues that the central theme in writings on economic and social history has been the ‘hidden comparison’ between the processes of political development and economic change in Italy and Germany.     

Review Article: Bystanders to Genocide in Rwanda

BRUCE D. JONES. Peacemaking in Rwanda: The Dynamics of Failure. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2001. Pp. 209. $49.95 (US); ALAN J. KUPERMAN. The Limits of Humanitarian Intervention: Genocide in Rwanda. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2001. Pp. 176. $38.95 (US), cloth; $16.95 (US), paper; MAHMOOD MAMDANI. When Victims Become Killers: Colonialism, Nativism, and the Genocide in Rwanda. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2001. Pp. 380. $45.00 (US), cloth; $16.95 (US), paper; LINDA R. MELVERN. A People Betrayed: The Role of the West in Rwanda's Genocide. London: Zed Books, 2000. Pp. x, 272. £49.95, cloth; £14.95, paper; SAMANTHA POWER. ‘A Problem from Hell’: America and the Age of Genocide. New York: Basic Books, 2002. Pp. 640. $30.00 (US); PETER RONAYNE. Never Again? The United States and the Prevention and Punishment of Genocide since the Holocaust. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2001. Pp. 240. $65.00 (US); MICHAEL BARNETT. Eyewitness to a Genocide: The United Nations and Rwanda. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2002. Pp. xiii, 215. $25.00 (US); JOHAN POTTIER. Re-imagining Rwanda: Conflict, Survival, and Disinformation in the Late Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002. Pp. xvii, 251. $24.00 (US), paper.     

The spatial extent of agglomeration economies across the wage earnings distribution

We investigate the spatial extent of agglomeration economies across the wage earnings distribution using economic mass (total employment) in four distance bands around each individual’s establishment in a quantile regression framework. We control for observable and unobservable individual and establishment characteristics. Remaining endogeneity in the model is assessed with a set of instrumental variables. Results indicate a positive effect of economic mass on wage earnings up to 25 km away from the establishment. The spatial extent of agglomeration economies is similar across the wage earnings distribution. However, increases in economic mass shift the wage earnings distribution in a nonsymmetric way.     

Youth,gangs and violence: Analysing the social and spatial mobility of young people in Guatemala City

Youth gangs have become an increasingly significant, and controversial, social institution in low-income communities in many cities in Central America, and yet the local-level impacts of this phenomenon, especially on young people, remain under-explored. Drawing on research with young people in Guatemala City, this paper explores the multiple barriers to the social and spatial mobility of both gang and non-gang members resulting from gang violence. It also examines how young men and women cope with violence, and, given the severe impacts of gang activity on young people, highlights the pressing need for social alternatives to gangs.     

Donor‐Driven Justice and its Discontents: The Case of Rwanda

Never before was a process of doing justice driven so strongly from the outside as in post‐genocide Rwanda. Not only did the 1994 genocide lead to the founding of the International Tribunal, but it also induced intensive donor involvement in domestic attempts to ‘break the cycle of hatred’— from the work done by the national courts and the Unity Commission to the gacaca. In this sense, Rwanda became the forerunner of a much wider trend, towards a judicialization of international relations, for instance through an emphasis on international criminal law. However, the past decade of donor involvement in Rwanda in general, and the case of the gacaca in particular, show us how this specific — technocratic, de‐contextualized — emphasis on justice might seem innocuous at first glance, but carries dangers within it, particularly if it takes place in an increasingly autocratic and oppressive political environment like that of contemporary Rwanda.     

The hidden apocalypse: Richard of Saint-Vanne and the otherworld

At the centre of this article stands a letter written by Abbot Richard of Saint-Vanne sometime during the first quarter of the eleventh century. The letter describes two voyages to the otherworld taken by two monks at the abbey of Saint-Vaast in Arras in 1011 and 1012. A careful reading of the letter reveals that behind what appears to be a standard text, belonging to the very popular genre of otherworld journeys, hides an apocalyptic message of urgent warning that the world is about to reach its end. The letter thus serves as a prooftext for the existence of apocalyptic tension in the period between A.D. 1000 and A.D. 1033, and as such contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the ‘terrors of the year 1000’.     

The hidden apocalypse: Richard of Saint-Vanne and the otherworld

At the centre of this article stands a letter written by Abbot Richard of Saint-Vanne sometime during the first quarter of the eleventh century. The letter describes two voyages to the otherworld taken by two monks at the abbey of Saint-Vaast in Arras in 1011 and 1012. A careful reading of the letter reveals that behind what appears to be a standard text, belonging to the very popular genre of otherworld journeys, hides an apocalyptic message of urgent warning that the world is about to reach its end. The letter thus serves as a prooftext for the existence of apocalyptic tension in the period between A.D. 1000 and A.D. 1033, and as such contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the ‘terrors of the year 1000’.