中国核武器的发展与中苏关系的破裂(1954-1962)(连载一)

近年来中国发展核武器的问题在中苏关系的演进中,特别是在中苏关系破裂中的作用引起学术界的重视.作者根据陆续出版和解密的中国和苏联方面的相关文献档案,对中国发展核武器的基本战略考虑、中国核武器的发展与中苏关系演进的互动关系、苏联政策的变化的动因以及此种变化对中苏关系破裂的影响进行深入分析:认为中国核武器的发展与中苏关系的破裂是一个互动的过程.中国发展核武器在当时背景下,只能争取苏联的援助,苏联向中国提供发展核武器的技术,有其特殊历史背景.1958年下半年后,随着两国在意识形态、对时代和国际形势以及核武器的态度等问题产生重大分歧,这些事件直接或间接促使苏联停止援助中国发展核武器.这成为中苏关系破裂的重要标志,也成为日后中苏论战的一个重要论题.     

Does my bomb look big in this? Britain's nuclear choices after Trident

The United Kingdom's present strategic nuclear deterrent, the Trident submarine-based system, has been in full operation for less than four years. But the government will have to consider questions about the follow-on to this system before the end of this parliament and its successor government will almost certainly have to start taking, and implementing, decisions before 2008–9. In the past, political and public debates about the UK's nuclear weapons tended to flow forward on their own technical momentum, backed by the strategic imperatives of the Cold War. The next successor decisions, however, will be made in an era where both the technical questions and the strategic environment will be radically different. There may or may not be another vigorous public debate, but the present, and next, government will face some fundamental     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.     

论日本关东军的武器流向

有关日本关东军的武器装备流向,史学界一直没有明确的说法。前苏联方面有4种相关数字,但这些数字有笔误和夸大的成分。从东北解放军武器增多的数量和时间来分析,可以看出投降关东军的武器装备有支援中共、散落民间和运往前苏联的三个流向。     

PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

Relinquishing nuclear weapons: identities,networks and the British bomb

Recent analysis on the prospects for achieving a world free of nuclear weapons has tended to focus on a set of largely realist strategic security considerations. Such considerations will certainly underpin future decisions to relinquish nuclear weapons, but nuclear disarmament processes are likely to involve a more complex mix of actors, issues and interests. The article examines this complexity through a sociological lens using Britain as a case‐study, where relinquishing a nuclear capability has become a realistic option for a variety of strategic, political and economic reasons. The article examines the core ideational and organizational allies of the UK nuclear weapon ‘actor‐network’ by drawing upon social constructivist accounts of the relationship between identity and interest, and historical sociology of technology analysis of Large Technical Systems and the social construction of technology. It divides the UK actor‐network into three areas: the UK policy elite's collective identity that generates a ‘national interest’ in continued deployment of nuclear weapons; defence–industrial actors that support and operationalize these identities; and international nuclear weapons dynamics that reinforce the network. The article concludes by exploring how the interests and identities that constitute and reproduce the ‘actor‐network’ that makes nuclear armament possible might be transformed to make nuclear disarmament possible. The purpose is not to dismiss or supplant the importance of strategic security‐oriented analysis of the challenges of nuclear disarmament but to augment its understanding by dissecting some of the socio‐political complexities of nuclear disarmament processes.     

RE-EXAMINING THE ABM MORATORIUM

The argument of this essay is that current U.S. strategic postures and weapons systems, based essentially on mutual assured destruction (MAD), are defective, in that they over-deter and under-defend. MAD provides far more than sufficient deterrence against deliberate, full-scale nuclear war launched by the government of the Soviet Union, but provides little deterrence and no defense against the far more likely nuclear catastrophe of the future: an accidental, unauthorized, or third-party missile attack. The proposed solution is the reintroduction of superpower ABM (anti-ballistic missile) protection, on a limited, negotiated basis, which could provide defensive systems heavy enough to defend against light attacks but not heavy enough to defend against full-scale superpower attacks (and thereby undermine deterrence).     

Rebels without a cause: North Korea, Iran and the NPT

Unchecked nuclear weapons development in North Korea and the incipient nuclear weapons programme in Iran currently pose seminal challenges to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The disposition of these cases may determine the future of the NPT and will shape non-proliferation and disarmament efforts for the next decade or more. This article assesses these two challenges, focusing on the actions concerned European states might take to leverage and guide the inevitably central US role. The article concludes that, by smoothing the sharper edges of US nuclear and strategic policies, European states can promote political conditions more favourable to non-proliferation solutions in both critical cases and help reduce reliance on nuclear weapons threats in global security relations more broadly.     

The Budapest Memorandum and Russia's intervention in Ukraine

Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States extended security assurances to Ukraine in December 1994 in an agreement that became known as the Budapest Memorandum. This agreement was part of a package of arrangements whereby Ukraine transferred the Soviet‐made nuclear weapons on its territory to Russia and acceded to the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non‐nuclear weapon state (NNWS). Russia's violations of the Budapest Memorandum, notably its annexation of Crimea, could have far‐reaching implications for nuclear non‐proliferation and disarmament because of the questions that Russia's behaviour has raised about the reliability of major‐power security assurances for NNWS parties to the NPT. Doubts about the reliability of such assurances could create incentives to initiate, retain or accelerate national nuclear weapons programs. Moreover, because the Budapest Memorandum included restatements of UN Charter provisions and principles articulated in the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Co‐operation in Europe, Russia's disregard for the Budapest Memorandum has raised fundamental questions about the future of international order. The Russians have demonstrated that, despite economic sanctions and international condemnation, they are prepared to disregard longstanding legal and political norms, including those expressed in the Budapest Memorandum, in pursuit of strategic and economic advantages and the fulfilment of national identity goals. Unless Russia reverses its dangerous course, the fate of the Budapest Memorandum may in retrospect stand out as a landmark in the breakdown of international order.     

REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER USSR1 IN THE CONTEXT OF A UNITED EUROPE AND NEW WORLD ORDER

A comparative study investigates how individual Soviet republics would match up, as independent states, with other world countries with respect to various measures of size, economic well-being, quality of life, location, and resources. When a composite U.N. measure of development is employed, the majority of Soviet republics are on par with the poorest countries of the European Community or the most advanced developing states. Possible analogues to the Soviet situation (i.e., disintegrating past empires or states with similar political geographic characteristics) are identified for further study.     

Waiting for Kant: devaluing and delegitimizing nuclear weapons

Expectations of significant progress towards a nuclear weapons‐free world continue to shape global nuclear politics. Progress towards nuclear disarmament will require diminishing the value of nuclear weapons to the point where it becomes politically, strategically and socially acceptable for nuclear‐armed states to relinquish permanently their nuclear arsenals. Key to this are the concepts and processes of ‘devaluing’ and ‘delegitimizing’ nuclear weapons that have steadily coalesced in global nuclear discourse since the mid‐1990s. This article builds on current research by developing three images of nuclear disarmament under the Nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty (NPT): ‘surface’ devaluing, ‘deep’ devaluing, and delegitimizing nuclear weapons. The first represents codification by the nuclear‐weapon states of the transformation of the Cold War environment through reductions in the size and role of nuclear arsenals that leaves the logic of nuclear deterrence and nuclear prestige largely unchanged. Deep devaluing is framed as a reconceptualization of the political, strategic and military logics that underpin nuclear‐weapons policies and practices. Delegitimizing represents a more radical normative project to transform collective meanings assigned to nuclear weapons. The analysis examines conceptions of devaluing nuclear weapons from the perspective of non‐nuclear weapon states and the relationship between devaluing nuclear weapons and the idea of a spectrum of nuclear deterrence. It concludes by highlighting the tension between surface and deep devaluing, the emergence of a delegitimizing agenda, and the political implications for the current NPT review cycle set to culminate in the next quinquennial Review Conference in 2015.     

The global effects of nuclear winter: science and antinuclear protest in the United States and the Soviet Union during the 1980s

During the 1980s, Carl Sagan and other scientists used the theory of nuclear winter to criticize the arms race. Historians have largely dismissed nuclear winter as a political movement. In fact, nuclear winter influenced debate over nuclear weapons in the United States, despite contentious scientific and political arguments. In addition, an analysis of nuclear winter's reception in the Soviet Union reveals that the theory resonated on both sides of the Iron Curtain. The global debate over nuclear winter shows the potency of scientific arguments against nuclear weapons during the Cold War, and demonstrates the complex relationship between science and politics.     

战略性新兴产业空间演化及区域经济耦合发展研究——以长三角区域为例

本文在分析长三角区域战略性新兴产业空间演化的基础上,运用耦合度模型对该区域战略性新兴产业与区域经济协调发展的整体情况和分空间情况进行研究,得出该产业与区域经济耦合促进作用非常明显、该产业仍然滞后于区域经济发展水平、区域经济各发展要素对该产业的贡献度不均衡、该产业发展资金投入不足等结论。最后,对长三角区域如何有效发展战略性新兴产业提出对策建议。     

1953年东德事件与美国对苏东"演变"战略的起源

研究冷战高潮时期苏东地区的重大政治事件与美国针对苏东内部事态的政策演进历程,有助于更准确地认识“演变”战略的起源与性质。本所利用的档案材料表明,1953年的东德事件对美国决策层初步反省原先过于露骨的旨在激发或助长苏东内部社会紧张乃至“造反”行动的“激变”战略,开始酝酿“演变”战略产生了重要影响。“演变”战略的特征在美国对东德事件的反应中已初露端倪。这一政策转变的原因,除了原有政策在实践中的弊端和斯大林之后苏东形势的变化,也与美国决策的战略指导思想有关。     

Russia,nuclear leakage,and the non-proliferation regime

Abstract

Russia inherited from the Soviet Union vast holdings of nuclear weapons and of the fissile materials necessary to build them. These nuclear assets have been in the possession of a Russia in the midst of an extraordinarily difficult and turbulent political, social, and economic transformation. Never before have such enormous inventories of nuclear weapons and fissile materials existed in such circumstances of political instability and uncertainty and economic distress. The economic struggles and financial crisis experienced by Russia since it emerged as an independent state in 1991 have placed enormous stress on its society. The Russian military and the Russian nuclear complex have not been exempt from these pressures. This reality has led to concerns that the Russian state is not in a position to provide adequately for the safety and security of its nuclear assets. If true, this would raise the risk that these assets could leak out of Russia and into the hands of those who wish to acquire nuclear weapons –the so called nuclear leakage problem.     

略论杜勒斯对苏战略的早期思想背景（1919—1952）

杜勒斯的对苏战略构想和政策主张与其早期经历和思想有着密切的关联。杜勒斯对苏战略观的政治哲学基础是他早年形成的“和平变革”论,其思想根源包括在冷战初期即已基本定型的苏联观,即他对苏联“挑战”的性质、对外目标与手段、战略上的优势和弱点等问题的基本判断。联系这个思想背景,可以从杜勒斯令人目眩的多种表象背后,看到一条清晰而又前后连贯的政策思路。可以说,杜勒斯的对苏战略构想就其本质而言是一以贯之的,其逻辑顺序可以概括为“共处—竞争—高压—变革”。     

THE NATURE OF POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY AND WAYS OF INCREASING ITS GEOGRAPHICAL CONTENT

Political geography's essence and place in the system of Soviet geographical sciences are assessed and key elements of political geographical analysis defined. The latter include the space-time paradigm, the principle of territoriality, the study of center-periphery relationships, analysis of regional planning policy and theory, consideration of the role of the church and armed forces, and the importance of political geographical regionalization. Examples of Soviet work and thinking in many of these areas are provided (translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK).     

THE FORMATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY

The industrial complex in the area of the vast iron-ore bearing province known as the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (Central Russia) has been shaped in the past by an advantageous economic-geographic situation in the heart of the European USSR, by the availability of labor resources and by the presence of a wide range of agricultural raw materials for industry (sugar beets, sunflower, hemp). Further development will hinge on the massive use of mineral resources, both iron ore for the iron and steel industry, and cement materials in the overburden of open-pit iron mines. In 1975 the KMA will supply one-sixth of all the iron ore mined in the Soviet Union. About 60 percent of the ore (direct-shipping ore and concentrates derived from low grade-quartzites) moves to nearby plants at Lipetsk and Tula, and 25 percent moves to the Urals. If plans for a 12-million-ton integrated iron and steel plant for the Comecon countries materialize, 40 percent of the ore will be consumed locally, still leaving 60 percent for shipment to other steel plants. See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 593–94.     

俄罗斯的亚太战略与政策探析

俄罗斯作为苏联解体后的当然继承国,成为当今世界政治经济格局多极化发展趋势中重要的一极。目前俄罗斯承袭了苏联后期的亚太战略,并在某种程度上使其有所发展。本文在分析苏联后期实施亚太战略与政策的基础上,着重探讨了俄罗斯目前实施亚太政治经济战略的新东方政策与措施,并对其远东同亚太各国的经济联系的近期态势进行了实证分析;论述了中俄关系对实施其亚太战略的重要性;指出中俄建立面向21世纪的战略协作伙伴关系完全符合两国各自的地缘经济利益。