An alternative classification of Australian elections

Attempts have been made to apply to Australia the classification of elections developed by researchers at the University of Michigan. However, the American model is not suitable for Australian elections on a number of grounds. An alternative classification of Australian elections could be made by modifying the basic scheme developed for New Zealand elections.     

Economic conditions and forecasting of Australian elections revisited

In a recent paper in this journal, Jackman and Marks (1994) examine the relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes in Australia using data from 1949 onwards. Their analysis, however, is in my opinion technically inadequate because they seem to have overlooked the possible existence of autocorrelation in their models. In this paper, I present a re‐examination of some of their models which takes autocorrelation into account and which results in improvements in both the fit of the models and of their overall predictive accuracy. Inflation is shown to be a more definite influence on vote shares than are changes in unemployment rates. Also, I show that Jackman and Marks’ conclusion that the 1993 election was an exceptional one in the way in which economic conditions affected aggregate vote shares is incorrect, and that the election result was actually quite well within the normal range in the extent to which it was accurately predicted by economic conditions.     

Sources of electoral support for the Australian democrats in the house of representatives and Senate elections of 1990 and 1993: A comparative analysis

Election to the Australian Senate under proportional voting and statewide quotas gives to minor parties of the political centre a chance to win parliamentary representation otherwise denied them in the single member constituency‐based House of Representatives. Focusing on the Australian Democrats, vote splitting in the context of ? consistently higher levels of support for the Democrats in the upper house provides some evidence of differences among sources of electoral support between House and Senate, but within a context of general similarity of voter behaviour. Findings support a view that, as a party of ‘concerns’ rather than ideology, with a highly unstable support base, the future of the Democrats as other than a focus for protest must remain in doubt.     

On elections,voting and participation:

To summarise, there were five interesting features of the election: (i) the size of the first preference movement from the major parties to the Australian Democrats; (ii) the unexpected lack of any significant swing to Labor in the two‐party preferred vote; (iii) the notable uniformity of the results from state to state; (iv) such swing to Labor as did occur was mainly in seats already held by Labor and in urban areas; and (v) the results demonstrate that the electoral boundaries still contain a bias against Labor.     

996 and all that: the Norman peasants' revolt reconsidered

Early in the reign of Richard II of Normandy (996–1026), a peasant movement, usually described as a revolt, was suppressed. This paper re‐examines the evidence of William of Jumièges, Wace and an anonymous history of Fécamp. It argues that the movement cannot be securely dated to 996, was not a military enterprise, and was not revolutionary. Peasants attempted to mobilize quasi‐Carolingian assembly practices in order to gain concessions concerning specific economic issues, but did not seek to re‐order their society. The movement probably affected the Seine valley, rather than encompassing all of Normandy.     

Minor Parties and the Legislative Process in the Australian Senate: A Study of the 1993 Budget

In 1993, minor parties in the Australian Senate played a prominent role in negotiating changes to the ALP government's budget. The term 'obstructionist' was widely applied by the media and the Labor Party in describing these actions, particularly when it came to the Greens' (WA) efforts to change aspects of the budget bills. This article develops a conceptual framework through which the behaviour of the minor parties in the Senate might be viewed. Using the 1993 budget as an example, the article considers the capacity of minor parties to bring about legislative changes, as well as the type and level of resistance they pose to the executive.     

How elections are fought in Ascoli: kinship,politics, history and culture

Based on fieldwork and archival study in a small north Puglian town, this article explores the complex interrelationship between kinship and politics. In the context of a recent local election, it seeks to show how ties of kinship and affinity provide a moral framework and idiom for civic cooperation, and how shared political ideologies and a common political heritage define and reinforce a sense of lineage identity. It argues that a failure to engage with the implications of 'kinship beyond the household' has both detracted from the analysis of Italian local politics and impeded our understanding of the long-term resilience of wider kinship forms,especially in periods of acute system change.     

Thailand-Four elections and a coup

Thailand's political turmoil, evident after the December 2007 elections, is more than the sparks of ordinary conflict between rival elites seeking access to state power. The struggle has become not just about state capture, but also about who gets to determine the most fundamental questions relating to political order – the rules of the game. This article offers a critical interpretation of a decade of Thai politics, with the focus on the 2007 election and its aftermath. It examines debates about democracy, considers the position of the Thai monarchy and reflects on the regional implications of the Thai crisis.

     

Commentary : Partication and representation in the 2002 ATSIC elections

This commentary updates earlier work on participation and representation in ATSIC elections. It adds analysis of the fifth round of ATSIC elections held in 2002 to those held in 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1999. It confirms and refines earlier findings relating to a number of different measures of participation and representation. It argues that overall voter turnout is reasonable given the voluntary nature of ATSIC elections. It discerns a distinctive geography of both voter turnout and candidate interest. It argues that women's participation in ATSIC elections as voters, candidates and in being elected as regional councillors is quite high, but that there is some falling away in women's election to the offices of commissioner and regional council chairperson. It notes some weakness in the representation of women as regional councillors in remote areas and an under-representation of councillors under the age of 35. It also discerns a distinctive geography in the election of Torres Strait Islanders to ATSIC regional councils. In all these instances, the commentary attempts to explain and understand the patterns of participation and representation, while also raising them as possible issues of concern for ATSIC. Explanations relate to ATSIC's program and service provision roles, different social meanings and types of Indigenous identity, the relative influence of European settlement norms on traditional patterns of Indigenous political behaviour, and the nature of public career life courses. The commentary suggests that the distinctive geographies and other patterns of participation and representation are both understandable and well entrenched, and are unlikely to change greatly in the future.