Economic resilience of metropolitan,old industrial,and rural regions in two subsequent recessionary shocks

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on the question of how particular types of regions react to economic shocks. Drawing on a case study of Czech microregions, we aim to determine if the old industrial regions differ significantly from other types of regions (metropolitan, urban, rural) in (post)crisis economic development. Two aspects of regional resilience (measured by unemployment growth) were considered: recession and recovery. We focused on the comparison of two subsequent recessionary shocks: the 2008–2010 global recession and the 2012–2013 austerity crisis. Metropolitan regions showed relatively stable economic development. Old industrial regions were more resilient than expected. Rural regions exhibited highly diverse reactions: lower resistance was characteristic for regions specialized (mostly) in automotive and some labour-intensive industries. The first wave of recession increased unemployment mostly in (rural) regions dependent on export-oriented manufacturing, the second wave especially hit larger cities with metropolitan functions. Regions that experienced a sharp unemployment increase in the first recession were generally more resistant in the second wave. All types of regions were internally highly diverse in their reactions to economic crises, which points to the importance of micro-regional variations of economic resilience, the performance of individual local firms and subsidiaries, and extra-regional factors of regional development.     

山东省各市经济环境协调度分析

本文在阐述了经济环境协调度的概念的基础上,建立了经济环境协调度的指标体系、模型和计算方法,并对山东省17市的协调度进行了分析。通过对山东省的实证分析,发现山东省经济环境协调度整体上处于基本协调的阶段,经济发展大都以牺牲环境为代价;经济环境协调度与经济发展阶段符合"U"型曲线,处于工业化中期阶段的二类区协调度最低,位于曲线的谷底,说明产业结构对协调度具有重要的影响。     

The Second Interagency Conference on Population Geography

A theory that areal variations in economic development in the USSR (analyzed at the oblast level for most republics) depend on regional economic structure, economic policy, cultural factors, and the center-periphery dichotomy is tested via simple regression analysis, using retail sales per capita as the indicator of economic level. The independent variables are: share of urban population (for economic structure), investments (for economic policy), percentage of Moslem population (for the cultural factor), and distance from Moscow (for the periphery effect). All of these variables except distance were significant in explaining the real variation in retail sales per capita.     

区域经济增长俱乐部趋同的界定及识别——一个文献评述及中国案例的分析

从分析角度上,可以把俱乐部趋同界定为时间俱乐部趋同、空间俱乐部趋同和时空耦合俱乐部趋同。考虑到不同的检验方法对俱乐部趋同概念的理解并不相同,对于俱乐部趋同的界定除了考虑时空维度以外,还需按照检验方法进一步细分。本文通过对中国俱乐部趋同的识别,发现了随机型时间俱乐部趋同、空间俱乐部趋同及随机型时空俱乐部趋同的存在性,从而验证了本文定义俱乐部趋同的思路是具有实践价值的。     

Impact of European Union development subsidies on Hungarian regions

Since the collapse of the communist system, regional inequalities have increased in Central European Countries. This paper describes an assessment of the impacts of regional development programmes on the development of Hungarian regions at a highly disaggregated level between 2002 and 2008. We construct a multi-dimensional composite indicator to estimate the overall development of rural regions and capture social, economic and environmental dimensions. The impacts of rural development programmes were investigated through counterfactual analysis in combination with Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences approaches. There has been considerable variation with increasing concentration in the level of subsidies distributed during the analysed period. From a policy perspective, the results are disappointing. Irrespective of the subsidy measures or methodology employed, the impact of the former is very close to zero or non-significant. Our findings cast serious doubt on the effectiveness of development policy and the long-run convergence of European regions.     

An Assessment of the Causal Relationship between Growth and Inequality in Spanish Regions

This paper analyses the causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality in Spanish regions from 1970 to 2000. We examine such a relationship using a panel of data with four time observations on the level variables for each region. Thus, we use a modified form of traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short times series that are available. Applying a sum–difference test, we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth in Spanish regions leads to less income inequality, rather than any other possible causal relationship.     

An alternative policy approach to rural development in regions facing population decline

ABSTRACT

Many rural regions in Europe used to be characterized by weak economic performance and negative population development. While in a long-term perspective this is not any more valid for large parts of Western Europe, a number of rural regions face persistent population decline. By analysing the case of Austria, where approximately one-third of rural areas have experienced such negative population change over the past decades, this paper will examine the impact on economic performance, income levels and well-being patterns. Addressing the crucial and persistent obstacles to positive population trends, new theoretical approaches and perspectives are discussed for overcoming limitations in development. Future approaches for regional development have to go beyond strategies for targeting economic growth, but have to address issues of local participation, social innovation and establishing trust as preconditions to effectively impact well-being dimensions. Such a mobilization effort would be the result of a comprehensive social transition process which would foster an altered narrative for these rural regions compared to the current and predominant focus on compensation and growth policies. Despite strong interlinkages with other regions and actors, the needs of local people would be central and both would be a cornerstone for social innovation.     

黄河流域区域经济差异的时空动态分析

以黄河流域的各地级市为研究单元,人均GDP为测度指标,综合运用不同时空动态分析方法,在Open Geoda和Pysal2.7软件支持下,对1990-2013年黄河流域73个地级市经济发展水平空间格局和演变过程进行分析。研究表明:黄河流域整体区域经济差异呈现先扩大后减小的趋势,东部地区内部差异最显著对整体差异贡献最大,中部、西部区域经济差异相对稳定;流域经济空间异质性明显,存在显著的空间正相关,区域经济格局两极化明显且东部经济水平明显高于中西部地区,流域经济发展的热点区主要分布在山东省内,冷点区主要分布在甘肃、陕西、青海等部分州市;通过分析黄河流域73个地级市经济发展类型时空演变特征,反映出黄河流域经济发展存在俱乐部趋同趋势,初始状态对区域经济发展具有重要作用,区域背景亦具有一定作用,区域经济水平的跨越式发展基本不存在。     

基于"以人为本"生态区域基质的城市规划空间结构

通过城市规划空间结构历史演化过程分析,我国经历了从农业区域基质到工业区域基质的五次城市规划空间结构演化更替的过程,且每次规划空间结构更替都有特定的社会经济历史背景。我国带着不同社会经济体制所遗留的各种痕迹和烙印,迈入了以市场经济、经济全球化、区域经济集团化为宏观背景的信息化社会,且我国还处于工业化、城市化的中期。面对新世纪的发展环境,并结合我国国情,提出了基于“以人为本”生态区域基质的以生态经济区为单位来组织现代城市规划空间结构体系的基本思想,并构建了我国现代城市空间结构体系的基本框架。     

基础设施投资与中国经济增长的地区差异研究

本文应用生产函数法和我国19962000年度混合数据,从全国各地区的层次进行分析,估计基础设施对经济增长的产出弹性,以及不同地域的显著性差异。得到的估计结果是基础设施投资的人均GDP产出弹性为0187;不同地域基础设施对经济增长的影响存在明显差异。本文分三部分。第一部分是引言,介绍了有关的研究文献;第二部分应用生产函数建立模型进行估计;第三部分是结论和政策建议。     

旅游对我国区域经济增长及其敛散性的影响——基于1997年～2010年省际面板数据的实证分析

本文以Barro和Sala-i-Martin的收敛假说为理论基础,利用面板模型探讨了1997年～2010年间旅游业发展对我国总体国民经济及东、中、西部地区区域经济增长及其敛散性的影响。结论显示:1997年～2010年间,全国及东、中、西部地区经济增长均呈发散趋势;旅游发展对全国及东、中、西部地区区域内经济增长及其差距的缩小产生了积极影响。     

Rural Development Patterns in Post-Reform China: The Pearl River Delta Region in the 1990s

Since the reforms that began in 1979, economic development in China has been marked by four major policy initiatives: the re-integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy, the decentralization of economic decision making away from the central state to lower levels, and, especially in the coastal regions, the shift away from subsistence agriculture towards rural industrialization and increasing commercialization. In this article, the effects of the reform policies are discussed in the context of the Pearl River delta region, the economic core of the southern Chinese province of Guangdong. Closely proximate to Hong Kong, with many Overseas Chinese connections, the province was given opportunities to innovate within the new policy option and has been marked by rapid economic growth. The article focuses on the impact of industrialization, commercialization, and globalization in four contrasting areas of the Pearl River delta in the 1980s and 1990s. At a general level, what McGee has called desakota zones have emerged and follow a development process which is similar to that observed in parts of East and Southeast Asia in the 1970s. When examined from the perspective of villages and localities, the blending of government policies, geographical location, and market forces with an array of local social values has resulted in separate and distinctive patterns of development.     

Emergence of a region. Exploring the role of spatial planning in the emergence of high-tech region ELAt using assemblage and actor-network theory

ABSTRACT

Regions or regional development have not only gained importance in spatial planning, but also got fuzzy meanings. Originally regions refer to a specific geographical demarcated area, often with an inductive historic or cultural meaning. In the meantime, in our networked world, the concept also refers to transport regions based on models of daily urban systems, or functional regions based on distinctive urban or social functions. Within the post-industrial era, the concept also gained importance as economic regions. In this paper, we will explore how regional concepts emerge out of specific economic interest concerning technological innovation. We will focus on a cross-border municipal case, for example, the triangle Eindhoven–Leuven–Aachen. With the help of the assemblage and actor-network theory, we will show how the identity of regions is translated by evolving actor-networks, and how these actor-networks are influenced and adapted by those alternating regional identities themselves. From these insights, we will come up with some ideas and propositions how regional planning could play an important role within these co-evolving processes.     

Using the STARE double pulse system to obtain the mean velocity and velocity of long-lived irregularities

The STARE and SABRE auroral radars use double pulses to measure one value of the autocorrelation function (ACF) to obtain the Doppler velocity of the irregularities in the E-region auroral zone. If the pulse separation of each double pulse is τ, then the measured velocity tends towards the mean velocity V_DP as τ → 0, and towards the velocity of the long-lived irregularities V_LL as τ → ∞. A practical implementation using these results is presented, which allows measurement of these two physically important velocities from just four pulse spacings, rather than the 11 or 15 currently used to obtain the full velocity spectrum in the STARE and SABRE radars, and thus gains greater precision or better time resolution. The two line-of-sight velocities, V_DP and V_LL, are in general not equal, with V_LL greater in magnitude than V_DP (sometimes much greater). Comparison of V_DP and V_LL for the two STARE stations and one of the SABRE stations shows interesting differences, and a number of statistically significant features. V_LL probably measures the velocity of primary irregularities whenever these exist with the appropriate k vector. Both velocities ought to be measured routinely, and also for comparison with other techniques.     

资源型地区工业化与城市化的偏差与整合——以山西省为例

中国及各地区普遍存在工业化与城市化偏差现象,资源型地区的偏差尤为严重,主要表现为水平与结构偏差,质量、速度、效率偏差。其成因主要在于工业布局与城市、城镇分布的偏离,单一的嵌入式的资源开发模式与城市化的偏离,生产、社会组织方式与城市化的偏离。这几方面的偏离,通过影响流动、集聚、创新三个基本要素的相互作用,打破了工业化与城市化关系演进中的动力与传导机制,进而形成二者之间的严重偏差。针对资源型经济的特点,文中提出工业化与城市化整合发展的思路与对策。     

Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: a European perspective

The impact of the economic crisis has been highly asymmetric across the European regions. The objective of this paper is to investigate the determinants of resilience to economic crisis across European regions. Regional economic resilience was assessed based on employment changes during 2008–2013, while socioeconomic determinants were analysed pre-crisis (2002–2007). A highly heterogeneous pattern of resilience was observed within countries, while significant differences were also revealed between the continental northern-central regions and the southern periphery. A multilevel logistic regression model indicated the magnitude of country-effects on the performance of regional employment during crisis periods. Both EU-referenced and country-referenced regional resilience identified the positive effect of accessibility and the negative effect of a large manufacturing sector in the ability of regions to withstand recessionary shocks. Education and economic development level positively affected the resilience of both large and small regional European economies. Investing in education enhances the spatial homogeneity across Europe in terms of its ability to react to economic shocks. The results reveal the importance of narrowing disparities among regions and formulating targeted and differentiated regional development policies at country level, taking into consideration the size of the economy of the regions.     

转型期俄罗斯区域经济发展空间差异研究

本文从区域地理的视角,通过对俄罗斯转型以来的经济地带、基本经济区、联邦区和联邦主体四个不同层面的区域经济发展空间差异的现状进行动态分析,得出俄区域经济发展差异具有三个鲜明的特征:一是无论在其经济整体下降或增长的同时均伴随着区域之间经济发展差异的绝对或相对扩大过程;二是区域之间经济发展空间差异反映了市场经济在不同区域的作用,即在市场条件基础较好和资源性外向型经济发展有利的区域经济增长优于其他区域;三是形成了大量的"低水平塌陷"区域,即经济指标低于全俄平均数的问题区域数量多,覆盖面大。在此基础上,从自然因素、市场发育水平、体制因素以及社会历史因素等方面探讨了各因素在区域经济发展中的不同作用。     

Climate change,conflict, and cooperation: Global analysis of the effectiveness of international river treaties in addressing water variability

Climate-driven water variability is a natural phenomenon that is observed across river basins, but one that is predicted to increase due to climate change. Environmental change of this kind may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions which are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. We argue that our best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. In this paper, we explore treaty effectiveness, or treaty resilience, by investigating whether particular water allocation and institutional mechanisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. We use water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database as a dependent variable to test particular hypotheses regarding the impact of treaty design on conflict and cooperation over time. A broad set of climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948–2001 using the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to our primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms appear to be more important than others.     

IS SOCIAL CAPITAL USEFUL FOR EXPLAINING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN POLISH REGIONS?

The concept of social capital is widely perceived as a promising tool for explaining differences in economic development between countries and regions. According to this theory, weak links (bridging social capital) and social trust in an area favour its better access to other forms of capital, that is, economic and human capital. However, strong links (bonding social capital) may stifle creativity and entrepreneurship. Since the vast majority of research on the impact of social capital on economic development focuses on highly developed Western European countries, it seems particularly interesting to evaluate the usefulness of this approach when applied to post‐communist countries with their different experiences. The objective of this article is to identify the spatial variation of different forms of social capital in regions of Poland and then to test a hypothesis on the impact of this capital on regional economic development. The results demonstrate that despite the existing differences between regions there are no significant relationships between levels of social capital and economic development. This may be explained either by low social capital levels or by the overall degree of Polish economic development.     

An empirical study on the modification of China's current urban social security system

This study challenges the conventional correlation between economic performance and the level of the development of social security systems. By focusing on China's urban areas, we provide an overview of the components and benefits, from a comparative perspective, of China's current social security system. We also create a comprehensive and generally applicable method using factors such as economics and population, among others, as standards to evaluate the efficacy of China's system. In order to demonstrate our primary hypothesis – that the Chinese Communist Party government has to modify its social security system to adapt to or bring about changes in the basis of its legitimacy – we analyse Chinese social security records and other related data after 1949 by statistical methods. The formula we provide in this study can be used to forecast China's expenditure on its urban social security system, and other scholars can apply our methods to countries in which conditions are broadly similar.